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Hava sıcaklığının BİST TÜM Endeksi fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi: İstanbul ili örneği

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 220 - 233, 09.11.2022

Abstract

Adam Smith tarafından literatüre kazandırılan ‘Homo Economicus’ kavramı, rasyonel ya da ekonomik birey anlamına gelmekte olup yatırımcıların kendi çıkarlarını maksimize eden kişiler olduğunu ifade etmektedir. 1776 yılında ortaya atılan kavram, 1950’li yıllardan itibaren geleneksel finans teorilerinde savunulmaya devam edilmiş ve yatırımcıların yatırım kararlarında rasyonel davrandığı belirtilmiştir. 1970’li yıllardan sonra ise yatırımcıların yatırım kararlarında birtakım anomali ve hevristikler nedeniyle rasyonel olmadığını savunan davranışsal finans kavramı, son yarım asır içerisinde önem kazanan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Davranışsal finans, yatırımcıların yatırım kararlarında birtakım psikolojik, biyolojik, sosyolojik, demografik ya da dışsal faktörler nedeniyle rasyonel davranamadığını savunmaktadır. Rasyonel davranamama sonucunda da yatırımcıların yatırım kararlarında hatalar yaptığı ifade edilmektedir. Davranışsal finans teorisine göre her birey rasyonel olarak kabul edilmemekte ve yatırımcı psikolojisinin yatırımlarda önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğu belirtilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, hava durumu verilerinin BIST TÜM (XUTUM) Endeksi fiyatlarını etkileyip etkilemediğinin tespiti amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında, 05.01.2016-29.07.2022 tarihleri arasında XUTUM Endeksi fiyatları ile kış, ilkbahar, yaz ve sonbahar aylarına ait; bulutluluk süreleri ile maksimum, ortalama ve minimum sıcaklık verileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen veriler, Borsa İstanbul’un işlem gördüğü günler kapsamında düzenlenerek örneklem oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmada yöntem olarak ANOVA testi ile Regresyon Analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, ilkbahar mevsimindeki bulutluluk süreleri ile maksimum, ortalama, minimum sıcaklıkların ve yaz mevsimi maksimum, ortalama, minimum sıcaklıklarının, XUTUM Endeksi fiyatlarını etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, hava sıcaklığı verilerinin XUTUM Endeksi fiyatlarını dolayısıyla yatırımcı kararlarını etkilediği sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır.

References

  • Al-Hajieh, H., Redhead, K., & Rodgers, T. (2011). Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(3), 345-356.
  • Arshanapalli, B. G., Coggin, T. D., & Nelson, W. B. (2002). The January effect and the global value-growth premium. The Journal of Investing, 11(4), 15-26.
  • Białkowski, J., Etebari, A., & Wisniewski, T. P. (2012). Fast profits: Investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(3), 835-845.
  • Brockman, P., & Michayluk, D. (1998). The persistent holiday effect: Additional evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 5(4), 205-209.
  • Cao, M., & Wei, J. (2005a). Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(6), 1559-1573.
  • Cao, M., & Wei, J. (2005b). Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(6), 1559-1573.
  • Chakraborty, U. (2014). Effects of different phases of the lunar month on humans. Biological Rhythm Research, 45(3), 383-396.
  • Darrat, A. F., Li, B., Liu, B., & Su, J. J. (2011). A Fresh Look at Seasonal Anomalies: An International Perspective. International Journal of Business & Economics, 10(2), 93-116.
  • Dichev, I. D., & Janes, T. D. (2003). Lunar cycle effects in stock returns. The Journal of Private Equity, 6(4), 8–29.
  • Dodd, O., & Gakhovich, A. (2011). The holiday effect in Central and Eastern European financial markets. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 8(4), 29-35.
  • Gavriilidis, K., Kallinterakis, V., & Tsalavoutas, I. (2016). Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 132, 23-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2015.09.018
  • George, D., & Mallery, M. (2010). SPSS for Windows step by step: A simple guide and reference. 17.0 update (10a ed.) Boston: Pearson
  • Gu, A. Y. (2003). The declining January effect: evidences from the US equity markets. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 43(2), 395-404.
  • Gultekin, M. N., & Gultekin, N. B. (1983). Stock market seasonality: International evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 12(4), 469-481.
  • Gündoğdu, A., & Sarılı, S. (2021). Hava durumu anomalisi: Panel veri analizi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (116), 143-154.
  • Güngör, S., & Küçün, N. T. (2019). BIST100 endeksinde ı̇şlem hacmi ve ı̇şlem miktarında hava durumu anomalisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23(4), 1459-1469
  • Hassan, M. H., & Kayser, M. S. (2019). Ramadan effect on stock market return and trade volume: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Cogent Economics and Finance, 7(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1605105
  • Investing. (2022, Ağustos). BIST TÜM Endeksi. Erişim Adresi: https://tr.investing.com/indices/ise-all-shares
  • Jaworske, D. A., & Shumway, D. A. (2003). Solar selective coatings for high temperature applications. AIP Conference Proceedings, 654(1), 65-70.
  • Kamstra, M. J., Kramer, L. A., & Levi, M. D. (2003). Winter blues: A SAD stock market cycle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 324-343.
  • Kamstra, M. J., Kramer, L. A., Levi, M. D., & Wermers, R. (2017). Seasonal asset allocation: Evidence from mutual fund flows. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(1), 71-109.
  • Kavas, Y. B., Tunçer, E., Çoban, M. N., & Erkan, M. K. (2022). Duygusal yeme bozukluklarının ve vücut kütle indeksinin finansal risk alma davranışları üzerine etkisi. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 432-449. https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1088097
  • Khan, K., Nasir, M. A., & Rossi, M. (2017). The calendar anomalies on performance and volatility of stock market: the effects of Ramadan on Karachi Stock Exchange. Global Business and Economics Review, 19(1), 54-69.
  • Korkmaz, T., & Ceylan, A. (2017). Sermaye piyasası ve menkul değer analizi. Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Küçüksille, E., & Özmutaf, N. M. (2015). Is there ramadan effect in Turkish stock market? Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya Isletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(3), 105-110.
  • Lai, Y. W., & Windawati, A. (2017). Risk, return, and liquidity during Ramadan: Evidence from Indonesian and Malaysian stock markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 233-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.054
  • Marrett, G. J., & Worthington, A. C. (2009). An empirical note on the holiday effect in the Australian stock market, 1996–2006. Applied Economics Letters, 16(17), 1769-1772.
  • Mason, T. (1997). Seclusion and the lunar cycles. In Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services. Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, 35(6), 14-18.
  • Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. (2022, Temmuz). Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. Meteoroloji Sözlüğü: Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü adresinden alındı
  • Mugerman, Y., Yidov, O., & Wiener, Z. (2020). By the light of day: The effect of the switch to winter time on stock markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 65, 101197.
  • Noyan, M. A., Elbi, H., & Korukoglu, S. (2000). Mevsimsel gidiş değerlendirme formu (MGDF): Güvenilirlik araştırması. Anadolu Psikiyatri Dergisi, 1(2), 69-77.
  • Rozeff, M. S., & Kinney Jr, W. R. (1976). Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 379-402.
  • Saunders, E. M. (1993). Stock prices and Wall Street weather. American Economic Review, 83(5), 1337-1345.
  • Seyyed, F. J., Abraham, A., & Al-Hajji, M. (2005). Seasonality in stock returns and volatility: The Ramadan effect. Research in International Business and Finance, 19(3), 374-383.
  • Sonjaya, A. R., & Wahyudi, I. T. (2016). The Ramadan effect: Illusion or reality? Arab Economic and Business Journal, 11, 55-71.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Wachtel, S. B. (1942). Certain observations on seasonal movements in stock prices. The Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, 15(2), 184-193.
  • Wasiuzzaman, S., & Al-Musehel, N. A. (2018). Mood, religious experience and the Ramadan effect. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(1), 290-307.
  • Yoon, S.-M., & Kang, S. H. (2009). Weather effects on returns: Evidence from the Korean stock market. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 388(5), 682-690.

The effect of air temperature on BİST ALL Index Prices: The example of İstanbul

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 220 - 233, 09.11.2022

Abstract

The concept of 'Homo Economicus', which was brought to the literature by Adam Smith, means rational or economic individual and states that investors are people who maximize their own interests. The concept, which was introduced in 1776, has continued to be defended in traditional finance theories since the 1950s and it has been stated that investors act rationally in their investment decisions. Behavioral finance, which was advocated after the 1970s and argued that investors are not rational due to some anomalies and heuristics in their investment decisions, has become an important issue in the last half century. Behavioral finance argues that investors cannot act rationally in their investment decisions due to some psychological, biological, sociological, demographic or external factors. It is stated that as a result of not acting rationally, mistakes are made in the investment decisions of the investors. According to behavioral finance theory, not every individual is considered rational, and it is argued that investor psychology has a significant impact on investments. In this study, it is aimed to determine whether weather data affects BIST ALL Shares Index prices. Within the scope of the study, between 05.01.2016-29.07.2022, BIST ALL Shares Index prices for winter, spring, summer and autumn; cloudy times and maximum, average and minimum temperature data were obtained. The obtained data was organized within the scope of the days when Borsa Istanbul was traded, and a sample was created. ANOVA test and Regression Analysis were used as a method in the study. As a result of the study, it has been determined that the cloudiness periods in the spring, the maximum, average, minimum temperatures and the maximum, average and minimum temperatures of the summer season affect the BIST ALL Shares Index prices. When the findings are evaluated in general, it is concluded that the air temperature data affects the BIST ALL Shares Index prices and thus the investor decisions.

References

  • Al-Hajieh, H., Redhead, K., & Rodgers, T. (2011). Investor sentiment and calendar anomaly effects: A case study of the impact of Ramadan on Islamic Middle Eastern markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(3), 345-356.
  • Arshanapalli, B. G., Coggin, T. D., & Nelson, W. B. (2002). The January effect and the global value-growth premium. The Journal of Investing, 11(4), 15-26.
  • Białkowski, J., Etebari, A., & Wisniewski, T. P. (2012). Fast profits: Investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan. Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(3), 835-845.
  • Brockman, P., & Michayluk, D. (1998). The persistent holiday effect: Additional evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 5(4), 205-209.
  • Cao, M., & Wei, J. (2005a). Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(6), 1559-1573.
  • Cao, M., & Wei, J. (2005b). Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly. Journal of Banking & Finance, 29(6), 1559-1573.
  • Chakraborty, U. (2014). Effects of different phases of the lunar month on humans. Biological Rhythm Research, 45(3), 383-396.
  • Darrat, A. F., Li, B., Liu, B., & Su, J. J. (2011). A Fresh Look at Seasonal Anomalies: An International Perspective. International Journal of Business & Economics, 10(2), 93-116.
  • Dichev, I. D., & Janes, T. D. (2003). Lunar cycle effects in stock returns. The Journal of Private Equity, 6(4), 8–29.
  • Dodd, O., & Gakhovich, A. (2011). The holiday effect in Central and Eastern European financial markets. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 8(4), 29-35.
  • Gavriilidis, K., Kallinterakis, V., & Tsalavoutas, I. (2016). Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 132, 23-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2015.09.018
  • George, D., & Mallery, M. (2010). SPSS for Windows step by step: A simple guide and reference. 17.0 update (10a ed.) Boston: Pearson
  • Gu, A. Y. (2003). The declining January effect: evidences from the US equity markets. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 43(2), 395-404.
  • Gultekin, M. N., & Gultekin, N. B. (1983). Stock market seasonality: International evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 12(4), 469-481.
  • Gündoğdu, A., & Sarılı, S. (2021). Hava durumu anomalisi: Panel veri analizi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (116), 143-154.
  • Güngör, S., & Küçün, N. T. (2019). BIST100 endeksinde ı̇şlem hacmi ve ı̇şlem miktarında hava durumu anomalisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23(4), 1459-1469
  • Hassan, M. H., & Kayser, M. S. (2019). Ramadan effect on stock market return and trade volume: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Cogent Economics and Finance, 7(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2019.1605105
  • Investing. (2022, Ağustos). BIST TÜM Endeksi. Erişim Adresi: https://tr.investing.com/indices/ise-all-shares
  • Jaworske, D. A., & Shumway, D. A. (2003). Solar selective coatings for high temperature applications. AIP Conference Proceedings, 654(1), 65-70.
  • Kamstra, M. J., Kramer, L. A., & Levi, M. D. (2003). Winter blues: A SAD stock market cycle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 324-343.
  • Kamstra, M. J., Kramer, L. A., Levi, M. D., & Wermers, R. (2017). Seasonal asset allocation: Evidence from mutual fund flows. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(1), 71-109.
  • Kavas, Y. B., Tunçer, E., Çoban, M. N., & Erkan, M. K. (2022). Duygusal yeme bozukluklarının ve vücut kütle indeksinin finansal risk alma davranışları üzerine etkisi. Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 432-449. https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1088097
  • Khan, K., Nasir, M. A., & Rossi, M. (2017). The calendar anomalies on performance and volatility of stock market: the effects of Ramadan on Karachi Stock Exchange. Global Business and Economics Review, 19(1), 54-69.
  • Korkmaz, T., & Ceylan, A. (2017). Sermaye piyasası ve menkul değer analizi. Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Küçüksille, E., & Özmutaf, N. M. (2015). Is there ramadan effect in Turkish stock market? Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya Isletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(3), 105-110.
  • Lai, Y. W., & Windawati, A. (2017). Risk, return, and liquidity during Ramadan: Evidence from Indonesian and Malaysian stock markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 233-241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.054
  • Marrett, G. J., & Worthington, A. C. (2009). An empirical note on the holiday effect in the Australian stock market, 1996–2006. Applied Economics Letters, 16(17), 1769-1772.
  • Mason, T. (1997). Seclusion and the lunar cycles. In Journal of psychosocial nursing and mental health services. Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, 35(6), 14-18.
  • Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. (2022, Temmuz). Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. Meteoroloji Sözlüğü: Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü adresinden alındı
  • Mugerman, Y., Yidov, O., & Wiener, Z. (2020). By the light of day: The effect of the switch to winter time on stock markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 65, 101197.
  • Noyan, M. A., Elbi, H., & Korukoglu, S. (2000). Mevsimsel gidiş değerlendirme formu (MGDF): Güvenilirlik araştırması. Anadolu Psikiyatri Dergisi, 1(2), 69-77.
  • Rozeff, M. S., & Kinney Jr, W. R. (1976). Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 379-402.
  • Saunders, E. M. (1993). Stock prices and Wall Street weather. American Economic Review, 83(5), 1337-1345.
  • Seyyed, F. J., Abraham, A., & Al-Hajji, M. (2005). Seasonality in stock returns and volatility: The Ramadan effect. Research in International Business and Finance, 19(3), 374-383.
  • Sonjaya, A. R., & Wahyudi, I. T. (2016). The Ramadan effect: Illusion or reality? Arab Economic and Business Journal, 11, 55-71.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
  • Wachtel, S. B. (1942). Certain observations on seasonal movements in stock prices. The Journal of Business of the University of Chicago, 15(2), 184-193.
  • Wasiuzzaman, S., & Al-Musehel, N. A. (2018). Mood, religious experience and the Ramadan effect. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(1), 290-307.
  • Yoon, S.-M., & Kang, S. H. (2009). Weather effects on returns: Evidence from the Korean stock market. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 388(5), 682-690.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Batuhan Medetoğlu 0000-0002-8400-1232

Yusuf Bahadır Kavas 0000-0002-4838-7318

Publication Date November 9, 2022
Acceptance Date October 23, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 5 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Medetoğlu, B., & Kavas, Y. B. (2022). Hava sıcaklığının BİST TÜM Endeksi fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi: İstanbul ili örneği. Business Economics and Management Research Journal, 5(3), 220-233.

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