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Düşük Faiz Politikası ve Enflasyon: Neo-Fisherian Yaklaşım Çerçevesinde Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 949 - 975, 14.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1058947

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Neo-Fisher bir para politikasının politik önermelerinin Türkiye ekonomisi için geçerli olup olmayacağını analiz etmeyi amaçlamış olup; Türkiye’de TCMB’nin uyguladığı faiz politikalarının sıkça tartışılıyor olması, çalışmanın temel motivasyonunu oluşturmaktadır. Uzun dönem kalıcı faiz şoklarının enflasyon beklentilerini artırabileceği ve Türkiye’de Neo-Fisher Etkisi’nin geçerli olabileceği temel varsayımından hareketle, Türkiye ekonomisine ait 2002-2017 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak, geleneksel ve yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri yapılmış, ardından Autoregressive Distributed Long Bound Test (ARDL modeli) kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Analizde iki farklı model oluşturulmuştur. İlk model için sonuçlar Türkiye’de kısa dönemde Fisher Etkisinin geçerli olabileceğini ortaya koymuştur. İkinci modelde ise uzun dönem faizlerin yüksek kalmasının enflasyon beklentilerini artırmak suretiyle, enflasyonist etki doğuracağı ve Neo-Fisher Etkisinin geçerli olabileceği bulgulanmıştır. Her ne kadar değişkenler arasında Neo-Fisherian etkiler gözlenmiş olsa da politik çıkarımlarda Türkiye’nin içinde bulunduğu ekonomik durumu da göz önünde bulundurmak önem arz etmektedir. Dolayısıyla Neo-Fisher bir politika uygulamasından çok TCMB’nin kredibilitesini artırması ve finansal istikrara odaklanması yerinde olacaktır.

References

  • Amano, R., Carter, T. & Mendes R. (2016). A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics. Staff Analytical Note, 2016-14 Bank of Canada.
  • Asgharpur, H., Kohnehshahri, L. A. & Karami, A. (2007). The Relationships Between Interest Rates and Inflation Changes: An Analysis of Long-Term Interest Rate Dynamics in Developing Countries, In International Economic Conference on Trade and Industry (IECTI), 3 - 5 Aralık, Bayview Hotel Georgetown, Penang.
  • Blanchard, O.,Dell’Ariccia, G.& Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking Macroeconomics Policy, IMF Staff Position Note. SPN/10/03
  • Bullard, J. (2015). Permazero As a Possible Medium-term Outcome for The U.S. and G-7. Speech258.https://www.stlouisfed.org//media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/files/pdfs/bullard/remarks/bullard-phil-fed-policy-forum-4dec2015.pdf (Erişimtarihi:10.02.2019).
  • Cochrane, J. (2016). Do Higher Interest Rates Raise or Lower Inflation?. Hoover Institution, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/702e/1c91f94c26b0ee369a0aa95ea79e307e75f6.pdf. (Erişim tarihi:11.03.2019).
  • Crowder, W. J. (2018). The Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis: Empirical Implications and Evidence?. Empirical Economics, 58, 2867–2888.
  • Çiğdem, G. (2019). A Paradox: An Empiric Approach to Inflation-Interest Rates Relationship: Evidence from Turkey. Research in Applied Economics, 11(3), 1948-5433.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dögüs, I. (2019). Rising Wage Differential Between White-Collar and Blue-Collar Workers and Market Concentration: The Case of the USA, 1964-2007. PSL Quarterly Review, 72(290), 223-251.
  • Felek, Ş. & Ceylan, R. (2021). Enflasyon-Faiz Etkileşimi; Türkiye İçin Neo-Fisher Yaklaşım. International Conference on Economics April 09-11, 2021 Turkish Economic Association, ICE-TEA2021
  • Garin, J., Lester, R. & Sims, E. (2018). Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? NeoFisherianism in the New Keynesian Model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(1), 243-259.
  • Gobbia, L., Mazzocchib, R. & Tamborinic, R. (2019). Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence and Neo-Fisherian Depressions. EconPol Working Paper, European Network of Economic and Fiscal Policy Research.
  • Gujarati, D. (2015). Örneklerle Ekonometri. Çev. Doç. Dr. Nasip Bolatoğlu, Ankara: BB101 Yayınları.
  • Iona, P. (2017). Monetary Policy and Inflation: Is there a NeoFisher Effect? Evidence from Inflation Targeting Countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Economic Sciences Series, 17(1), 578-583.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089.
  • ______ (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, https://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0417.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 11.03.2019).
  • Lukmanova, E. & Rabitsch, K. (2018). New VAR Evidence on Monetary Transmission Channels: Temporary Interest Rate Versus Inflation Target Shocks. Department of Economics Working Paper, No. 274.
  • Mümtaz, H. & Theodoridis, K. (2018). The Federal Reserve’s Impicit Inflation Target and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A SVAR Analysis. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, No. E2018/1
  • Narayan, P. S. & Narayan, S. (2005). Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for FIJI in a Cointegration Framework. Economic Modelling, 22, 423-438.
  • Phiri, A. (2020). Is Neo-Fisherism ‘alive’ in South Africa? A Frequency Domain Casuality Approach. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 14(2), 142-156.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Article in Biometrika, 75(2), 335-46.
  • Sarıdoğan, H. Ö., Gülşen, M. A. (2021). Enflasyonla Mücadelede Neo-Fisher ve Neo-Keynesyen Paradigma. İktisadi, Mali ve Finansal Konulara Teorik Bakış Açıları, (175-186), Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Schmit –Grohe, S. & Uribe, M. (2014) Liquidity Traps: An Interest Rate Based Exit Strategy. Manchester School, 82, 1-14.
  • _______ (2017). Liquidity Traps and Jobless Recoveries. AEJ: Macroeconomics, American Economic Journal, 9(1), 165–204.
  • Sugözü, İ. H. & Yaşar, S. (2020). Enflasyon ve Faiz İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Regresyon ve Nedensellik Analizleri. Maliye Dergisi; 179, 85-105.
  • Sümer, A. L. (2020). Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikası Kapsamında Neo-Fisher Etkisi: 2008 Sonrası Türkiye Deneyimi. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 1-21.
  • Tayyar, A. E. (2018). Neofisher Etkisi ve Türkiye Uygulaması. Uludağ Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(36), 307- 339.
  • Uribe, M. (2017). The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan. NBER Working Papers 23977, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-30.
  • ______ (2018). The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models. Columbia University and NBER
  • Williamson, S. (2016). Neo-Fisherism a Radical Idea or The Most Obvious Solution To The Low-Inflation Problem?. The Regional Economist.
  • Yılancı, V. (2009). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin İşsizlik Histerisinin Sınanması. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2), 324-335.

Low Interest Policy and Inflation: An Analysis Based on Turkey in the Frame of Neo-Fisherian Approach

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 3, 949 - 975, 14.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1058947

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze whether the political propositions of a Neo-Fisher monetary policy would be valid for the Turkish Economy, and the fact that the interest policies implemented by the CBRT in Turkey are frequently discussed, constitute the main motivation of the study. Based on the basic assumption that long-term permanent interest rate shocks may increase inflation expectations and the Neo-Fisher Effect may be valid in Turkey, unit root tests were conducted by using the data of the Turkish economy covering the 2002-2017 period, and then Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL model). The causality relationship between the variables was investigated by using different theoretical models created in the analysis. The results for the first model revealed that the Fisher Effect might be valid in the short run in Turkey. In the second model, it has been found that keeping long-term interest rates high will create an inflationary effect by increasing inflation expectations, and the Neo-Fisher Effect may be valid. Although Neo-Fisherian effects were observed among the variables, it is important to consider the economic situation of Turkey in political conclusions. Therefore, increasing the credibility of the CBRT and focusing on financial stability should be provided rather than a Neo-Fisher policy implementation.

References

  • Amano, R., Carter, T. & Mendes R. (2016). A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics. Staff Analytical Note, 2016-14 Bank of Canada.
  • Asgharpur, H., Kohnehshahri, L. A. & Karami, A. (2007). The Relationships Between Interest Rates and Inflation Changes: An Analysis of Long-Term Interest Rate Dynamics in Developing Countries, In International Economic Conference on Trade and Industry (IECTI), 3 - 5 Aralık, Bayview Hotel Georgetown, Penang.
  • Blanchard, O.,Dell’Ariccia, G.& Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking Macroeconomics Policy, IMF Staff Position Note. SPN/10/03
  • Bullard, J. (2015). Permazero As a Possible Medium-term Outcome for The U.S. and G-7. Speech258.https://www.stlouisfed.org//media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/files/pdfs/bullard/remarks/bullard-phil-fed-policy-forum-4dec2015.pdf (Erişimtarihi:10.02.2019).
  • Cochrane, J. (2016). Do Higher Interest Rates Raise or Lower Inflation?. Hoover Institution, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/702e/1c91f94c26b0ee369a0aa95ea79e307e75f6.pdf. (Erişim tarihi:11.03.2019).
  • Crowder, W. J. (2018). The Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis: Empirical Implications and Evidence?. Empirical Economics, 58, 2867–2888.
  • Çiğdem, G. (2019). A Paradox: An Empiric Approach to Inflation-Interest Rates Relationship: Evidence from Turkey. Research in Applied Economics, 11(3), 1948-5433.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dögüs, I. (2019). Rising Wage Differential Between White-Collar and Blue-Collar Workers and Market Concentration: The Case of the USA, 1964-2007. PSL Quarterly Review, 72(290), 223-251.
  • Felek, Ş. & Ceylan, R. (2021). Enflasyon-Faiz Etkileşimi; Türkiye İçin Neo-Fisher Yaklaşım. International Conference on Economics April 09-11, 2021 Turkish Economic Association, ICE-TEA2021
  • Garin, J., Lester, R. & Sims, E. (2018). Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? NeoFisherianism in the New Keynesian Model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(1), 243-259.
  • Gobbia, L., Mazzocchib, R. & Tamborinic, R. (2019). Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence and Neo-Fisherian Depressions. EconPol Working Paper, European Network of Economic and Fiscal Policy Research.
  • Gujarati, D. (2015). Örneklerle Ekonometri. Çev. Doç. Dr. Nasip Bolatoğlu, Ankara: BB101 Yayınları.
  • Iona, P. (2017). Monetary Policy and Inflation: Is there a NeoFisher Effect? Evidence from Inflation Targeting Countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Economic Sciences Series, 17(1), 578-583.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089.
  • ______ (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, https://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0417.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 11.03.2019).
  • Lukmanova, E. & Rabitsch, K. (2018). New VAR Evidence on Monetary Transmission Channels: Temporary Interest Rate Versus Inflation Target Shocks. Department of Economics Working Paper, No. 274.
  • Mümtaz, H. & Theodoridis, K. (2018). The Federal Reserve’s Impicit Inflation Target and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A SVAR Analysis. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, No. E2018/1
  • Narayan, P. S. & Narayan, S. (2005). Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for FIJI in a Cointegration Framework. Economic Modelling, 22, 423-438.
  • Phiri, A. (2020). Is Neo-Fisherism ‘alive’ in South Africa? A Frequency Domain Casuality Approach. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 14(2), 142-156.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Article in Biometrika, 75(2), 335-46.
  • Sarıdoğan, H. Ö., Gülşen, M. A. (2021). Enflasyonla Mücadelede Neo-Fisher ve Neo-Keynesyen Paradigma. İktisadi, Mali ve Finansal Konulara Teorik Bakış Açıları, (175-186), Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Schmit –Grohe, S. & Uribe, M. (2014) Liquidity Traps: An Interest Rate Based Exit Strategy. Manchester School, 82, 1-14.
  • _______ (2017). Liquidity Traps and Jobless Recoveries. AEJ: Macroeconomics, American Economic Journal, 9(1), 165–204.
  • Sugözü, İ. H. & Yaşar, S. (2020). Enflasyon ve Faiz İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Regresyon ve Nedensellik Analizleri. Maliye Dergisi; 179, 85-105.
  • Sümer, A. L. (2020). Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikası Kapsamında Neo-Fisher Etkisi: 2008 Sonrası Türkiye Deneyimi. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(1), 1-21.
  • Tayyar, A. E. (2018). Neofisher Etkisi ve Türkiye Uygulaması. Uludağ Üniversitesi Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(36), 307- 339.
  • Uribe, M. (2017). The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan. NBER Working Papers 23977, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-30.
  • ______ (2018). The Neo-Fisher Effect: Econometric Evidence from Empirical and Optimizing Models. Columbia University and NBER
  • Williamson, S. (2016). Neo-Fisherism a Radical Idea or The Most Obvious Solution To The Low-Inflation Problem?. The Regional Economist.
  • Yılancı, V. (2009). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin İşsizlik Histerisinin Sınanması. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2), 324-335.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hilal Şeker 0000-0001-6188-1006

Baki Demirel 0000-0001-6704-0523

Publication Date September 14, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 6 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Şeker, H., & Demirel, B. (2022). Düşük Faiz Politikası ve Enflasyon: Neo-Fisherian Yaklaşım Çerçevesinde Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(3), 949-975. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1058947

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