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Dollarization and Stock Relations: Analyzes on Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 29 - 48, 15.01.2022

Abstract

There is a tendency towards foreign currency in economies that do not have a strong economy and, accordingly, strong money. Although the phenomenon of partial dollarization is also experienced in the Turkish economy, the tendency towards foreign currency increases with the increase of the fragility elements in the economy and their tendency to crisis. On the other hand, when the stability and confidence factor is established in the economy, dedollarization becomes widespread. While there are various measurement methods of dollarization, one of the most common measurement methods is the share of foreign currency deposits in total deposits. In this context, the effects of the developments in dollarization on the Turkish stock market are examined in the context of time series analysis. For the period between 2009:06 and 2021:11, the changes in the BIST100 index, especially the foreign currency deposits, and the changes in the national currency and foreign stock market values were analyzed by SVAR analysis. In the findings obtained, in addition to the positive and relatively weak effects of dollarization on the stock market in the short term, it was observed that this had positive and even stronger effects in the long term. It has been observed that the dollarization situation in the Turkish economy has a deepening trend during the period under consideration and this situation has positive effects on the stock market. However, it can be argued that there are reservations about the sustainability of the stock market’s parallelism with dollarization.

References

  • Alvarez-Plata, Patricia and Alicia García-Herrero (2008), “To dollarize or de-dollarize: Consequences for Monetary Policy”, BBVA Working Papers, Economic Research Depertment No: 0808 (Erişim: Kasım 2021), https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/mult/WP_0808_tcm348-212943.pdf.
  • Aninat, Eduardo (2000), “Globalization as An Economic and Social Force: Opportunities and Risks from a Humanistic Perspective”, (Ed: José Antonio Ocampo, Stefano Zamagni, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Carlo Pietrobelli), Financial Globalization and The Emerging Economies, Santiago, Chile, 2000, pp: 25-30.
  • Asel, Isakova (2010), “Financial Sector Development and Dollarization in the Economies of Central Asia”, Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economic Institute (CERGE-EI), Final Report Grant No. RRC IX-69, pp: 1-34.
  • Bărbută-Mişu, Nicoleta, Tuna Can Güleç, Selim Duramaz and Florina Oana Virlanuta (2020), “Determinants of Dollarization of Savings in the Turkish Economy”, Sustainability, 12: 1-16.
  • Becker, J. and Weissenbacher, R. (eds.), Dollarization, Euroization and Financial Instability. Central and Eastern Europe between Stagnation and Financial Crisis?, Metropolis-Verlag, Marburg.
  • Ben, Mabel, The Effect of Dollarization on the Performance of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, 2015.
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. and Carlos Végh (1992), “Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction”, Revista de Análisis Económico, 7 (1): 3-27.
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (2001), “Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33 (2): 312-334.
  • Curutchet, Alfredo Schclarek, The Benefits and Costs of Official Dollarization for Argentina, Department of Economics, Lund University, Sweden, 2001.
  • Duffy, John, Maxim Nikitin and R. Todd Smith (2006), “Dollarization Traps”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 38 (8): 2073-2097.
  • Fischer, Stanley (2006), “Dollarization: Consequences and Policy Options”, At the 75th Anniversary Conference of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Istanbul, December 13-15 2006.
  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi (2019), “2003-2018 Dönemi Türk Ekonomisinde Dolarizasyon, Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Kur Oynaklığı İlişkisi”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 69 (2): 357-376.
  • Ozbay, Emrah, The Relationship between Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from Turkey, Master of Science (MSC) in Financial Analysis and Fund Management, University of Exeter, 2009.
  • Sadeghzadeh Emsen, Hatıra, Ziya Çağlar Yurttançıkmaz, Mine Gerni ve Ömer Selçuk Emsen (2021), “Türkiye’de Yolsuzluk Endeksinin Borsa İstanbul100 Endeksi Üzerine Etkisi”, International Conference on Economics Finance and Banking, İstanbul, 24-25 Agust 2021, ss: 1-12.
  • Sarıöz,Ceyda, Currency Substitution: Theory and Evidence from Turkey, Çankaya University Graduate School of Social Sciences Financial Economics, Master Thesis, Ankara, 2021.
  • Seyidoğlu, Halil, Uluslararası Finans, Güzem Yayınları No: 8, İstanbul, 1994.
  • Seyidoğlu, Halil, Uluslararası İktisat, Güzem Can Yayınları No: 26, İstanbul, 2013.
  • Sims, A. Christopher (1980), “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48 (1): 1-48.
  • Tabak, Benjamin M. (2006), “The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence for Brasil”, Banco Central Do Brasil, Working Paper Series 124, pp: 1-37.
  • Tweneboah, George, John Garchie Gatsi and Michael Effah Asamoah (2019), “Financial Development and Dollarization in Ghana: An Empirical Investigation”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 7 (1): 1-21.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ömer (2019), “Küresel Ekonomik, Politik ve Jeopolitik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2)”, Journal of Yasar University, 14/53: 56-73.
  • Yeyati, Eduardo Levy and Hélène Rey (2006), “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences”, Economic Policy, 21 (45): 63-118.
  • Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, Financial Dollarization and De-Dollarization in the New Millennium, Latin American Reserve Fund – FLAR, Working Paper, January, 2021.
  • Živkovi, Andreja (2017), “Financialisation in the Post-Yugoslav Region: Monetary Policy, Credit Money and Dollarization”, Revista de Economía Mundial, 46: 117-133.
  • Zubair, Abdulrasheed (2013), “Causal Relationship between Stock Market Index and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Nigeria”, CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 4 (2): 87-110.

Dolarizasyon ve Borsa İlişkileri: Türkiye Üzerine İncelemeler

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 29 - 48, 15.01.2022

Abstract

Güçlü ekonomi ve buna bağlı olarak sağlam parası olmayan ulusal ekonomilerde yabancı paraya yönelimler söz konusu olmaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisinde de özellikle kısmi dolarziasyon olgusu olmakla birlikte, ekonomide kırılganlık unsurlarının artarak krize yönelimiyle birlikte yabancı paraya yönelim artarken, ekonomide istikrar ve güven unsurunu tesis edildiği durumda da dedolarizasyon yaygınlaşmaktadır. Dolarize olma durumunun ölçüm şekilleri olmakla birlikte en yaygın ölçüm şekillerinden biri de toplam mevduatlar içinde yabancı para mevduatlarının payıdır. Bu çerçevede dolarizasyondaki gelişmelerin Türkiye borsası üzerine etkileri zaman serisi analizleri bağlamında inceleme konusu yapılmıştır. 2009:06 ve 2021:11 arası dönem için BIST100 endeksindeki değişim üzerine başta yabancı para mevduatları olmak üzere ulusal para ve yabancı borsa değerlerindeki değişmeler SVAR analizleri ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgularda kısa dönemde borsa üzerine dolarizasyonun pozitif ve görece zayıf etkilerine dair sonuca ilaveten uzun dönem için de bunun yine pozitif ve daha da güçlü etkiler doğurduğu gözlenmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinde dolarize olma durumunun ele alınan dönem içerisinde derinleşme eğilimleri olduğu ve bu durumun da borsayı olumlulaştırıcı etkiler yarattığı gözlenmiştir. Ancak borsanın dolarizasyon ile paralellik arz etmesinin sürdürülebilirliği konusunda çekincelerin bulunduğu ileri sürülebilir.

References

  • Alvarez-Plata, Patricia and Alicia García-Herrero (2008), “To dollarize or de-dollarize: Consequences for Monetary Policy”, BBVA Working Papers, Economic Research Depertment No: 0808 (Erişim: Kasım 2021), https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/mult/WP_0808_tcm348-212943.pdf.
  • Aninat, Eduardo (2000), “Globalization as An Economic and Social Force: Opportunities and Risks from a Humanistic Perspective”, (Ed: José Antonio Ocampo, Stefano Zamagni, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Carlo Pietrobelli), Financial Globalization and The Emerging Economies, Santiago, Chile, 2000, pp: 25-30.
  • Asel, Isakova (2010), “Financial Sector Development and Dollarization in the Economies of Central Asia”, Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economic Institute (CERGE-EI), Final Report Grant No. RRC IX-69, pp: 1-34.
  • Bărbută-Mişu, Nicoleta, Tuna Can Güleç, Selim Duramaz and Florina Oana Virlanuta (2020), “Determinants of Dollarization of Savings in the Turkish Economy”, Sustainability, 12: 1-16.
  • Becker, J. and Weissenbacher, R. (eds.), Dollarization, Euroization and Financial Instability. Central and Eastern Europe between Stagnation and Financial Crisis?, Metropolis-Verlag, Marburg.
  • Ben, Mabel, The Effect of Dollarization on the Performance of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa, 2015.
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. and Carlos Végh (1992), “Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction”, Revista de Análisis Económico, 7 (1): 3-27.
  • Calvo, Guillermo A. (2001), “Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 33 (2): 312-334.
  • Curutchet, Alfredo Schclarek, The Benefits and Costs of Official Dollarization for Argentina, Department of Economics, Lund University, Sweden, 2001.
  • Duffy, John, Maxim Nikitin and R. Todd Smith (2006), “Dollarization Traps”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 38 (8): 2073-2097.
  • Fischer, Stanley (2006), “Dollarization: Consequences and Policy Options”, At the 75th Anniversary Conference of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Istanbul, December 13-15 2006.
  • Kal, Süleyman Hilmi (2019), “2003-2018 Dönemi Türk Ekonomisinde Dolarizasyon, Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Kur Oynaklığı İlişkisi”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 69 (2): 357-376.
  • Ozbay, Emrah, The Relationship between Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from Turkey, Master of Science (MSC) in Financial Analysis and Fund Management, University of Exeter, 2009.
  • Sadeghzadeh Emsen, Hatıra, Ziya Çağlar Yurttançıkmaz, Mine Gerni ve Ömer Selçuk Emsen (2021), “Türkiye’de Yolsuzluk Endeksinin Borsa İstanbul100 Endeksi Üzerine Etkisi”, International Conference on Economics Finance and Banking, İstanbul, 24-25 Agust 2021, ss: 1-12.
  • Sarıöz,Ceyda, Currency Substitution: Theory and Evidence from Turkey, Çankaya University Graduate School of Social Sciences Financial Economics, Master Thesis, Ankara, 2021.
  • Seyidoğlu, Halil, Uluslararası Finans, Güzem Yayınları No: 8, İstanbul, 1994.
  • Seyidoğlu, Halil, Uluslararası İktisat, Güzem Can Yayınları No: 26, İstanbul, 2013.
  • Sims, A. Christopher (1980), “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48 (1): 1-48.
  • Tabak, Benjamin M. (2006), “The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence for Brasil”, Banco Central Do Brasil, Working Paper Series 124, pp: 1-37.
  • Tweneboah, George, John Garchie Gatsi and Michael Effah Asamoah (2019), “Financial Development and Dollarization in Ghana: An Empirical Investigation”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 7 (1): 1-21.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ömer (2019), “Küresel Ekonomik, Politik ve Jeopolitik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2)”, Journal of Yasar University, 14/53: 56-73.
  • Yeyati, Eduardo Levy and Hélène Rey (2006), “Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences”, Economic Policy, 21 (45): 63-118.
  • Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, Financial Dollarization and De-Dollarization in the New Millennium, Latin American Reserve Fund – FLAR, Working Paper, January, 2021.
  • Živkovi, Andreja (2017), “Financialisation in the Post-Yugoslav Region: Monetary Policy, Credit Money and Dollarization”, Revista de Economía Mundial, 46: 117-133.
  • Zubair, Abdulrasheed (2013), “Causal Relationship between Stock Market Index and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Nigeria”, CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 4 (2): 87-110.
There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hatıra Sadeghzadeh Emsen 0000-0001-8824-0401

Publication Date January 15, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Sadeghzadeh Emsen, H. (2022). Dolarizasyon ve Borsa İlişkileri: Türkiye Üzerine İncelemeler. Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(1), 29-48.

International Journal of Economics, Politics, Humanities & Social Sciences – IJEPHSS is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY NC)