BibTex RIS Cite

TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?

Year 2014, Volume: 6 Issue: 10, 39 - 55, 02.01.2015
https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.96062

Abstract

Son yıllarda ekonomik büyüme ile birlikte artan dış ticaret açıkları önemli bir tartışma konusu olarak iktisat literatüründeki yerini almıştır. Konu ile ilgili çalışmalarda açığın oluşmasında farklı değişkenlerin rolünün olduğu söylense de önemli bir çoğunluğun kamu harcamaları üzerinde yoğunlaştığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise 1982Q1-2010Q3 dönemine ait Türkiye ekonomisinde kamu harcamaları ve dış ticaret açıkları arasındaki ilişki yapısal kırılma(lar) ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler incelenerek ortaya konulmuştur. Bu amaçla Kwaitkowski, Phillips, Schmidt ve Shin (1992, KPSS) geleneksel birim kök testi, Zivot-Andrews (1992) ve Lee-Strazicich (2003, 2004) yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ile birlikte Kejriwal (2008) ve Kejriwal-Perron (2009) tarafından geliştirilen yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, 2000’li yılların hemen başında yapısal kırılma bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca kırılma öncesi ve sonrası dönemlere ait uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçları göstermektedir ki:1990’lı yıllarda kamu harcamaları dış ticaret açıkları üzerinde etkili iken, 2000 yılı sonrasındaki dönemde etki azalmıştır.

References

  • Ahmad, Shaghil. (1987) “Government Spending, The Balance Of Trade And The Terms Of Trade İn British History”, Journal Of Monetary Economics, 20, 195-220.
  • Alkswani, Alkhatip, (2000) “The Twin Deficit Phenomenon İn Petroleum Economy: Evidence From Saudi Arabia”, Seventh Annual Conference, Economic Research Forum, Amman.
  • Arai, Youchi Ve Kurozoumi, Eiji , (2007) ”Testing For The Null Hypothesis Of Cointegration With A Structural Break”, Econometric Reviews, 26, 705-739.
  • Bai, Jushan Ve Perron, Pierre, (1998) "Computation And Analysis Of Multiple Structural-Change Models", Cahiers De Recherche 9807, Universite De Montreal, Departement De Sciences Economiques.
  • Bai, Jushan Ve Perron, Pierre, (2003), “Computation And Analysis Of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal 0f Applied Econometrics, Vol:18, 1–22.
  • Cavallo, Michele, (2005) “Government Consumption Expenditures And The Current Account”, Federal Reserve Bank Of San Fransisco, Working Paper, No. 2005-03.
  • Chowdhury, Khorshed Ve Saleh, Ali Salman, (2007) “Testing The Keynesian Proposition Of Twin Deficits İn The Presence Of Ttrade Liberalisation: Evidence From Sri Lanka”, University Of Wollongong Economics Working Paper Series, No. Wp 07-09.
  • Darrat, Ahmed, (1988) “On Fiscal Policy And The Stock Market”, Journal Of Money, Credit, And Banking, 20, 353-362.
  • Delong, Brad, (2004) John Taylor Blasts Off For The Gamma Quadrant, In Brad De-Long’s Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog. İndirilme Adresi Http://Www.J-Bradforddelong.Net/Movable Archives/000519.Html. (Tarih: 15.01.2011). Type/2004-2
  • Ergec, Christopher, Guerrieri, Luca Ve Gust, Christopher, (2005) “Expansionary Fiscal Shocks And The Trade Deficit”, International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 825.
  • Esteve, Vicente, Ibanez, Manuel Ve Prats, Maria, (2010) “ The Spanish Term Structure Of Interest Rates Revisited:Cointegration With Multiple Structural Breaks,1974-2010”, Economia Aplicada Ii, Working Paper Series, Wps-2010-01, 1-23.
  • Glynn, John, Perera, Nelson Ve Verma, Reetu, (2007), “ Unit Root Tests And Structural Breaks: A Survey With Applications”, Revista De Metodos Quantitativos Para La Economica Empresa, July 2007, No:Se-2927- 06, 63-80
  • Hansen, Bruce, (1992) “Test For Parameter Instability In Regressions With I(1) Processes”, Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, 10, 321- 335.
  • Harne, Olivier, Doarau, Jean-François, (2007), “Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate”, Bulletin Of Economic Research, 59:4, 0307-3378
  • Hye, Muhammed Ve Ali, Asghar, (2010) “Relationship Between Budget Deficit And Trade Deficit: A Case Study Of Pakistan Economy”, The Uip Journal Of Monetary Economics, 9(1), 7-13.
  • Kejriwal, Mohitosh, (2008) ”Cointegration With Structural Breaks: An Application To The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle”, Studies In Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(1), 1-37.
  • Kejiriwal, Mohitosh Ve Perron, Pierre, (2008) ”The Limit Distribution Of The Estimates In Cointegrated Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes”, Journal Of Econometrics, 146, 59-73.
  • Kejiriwal, Mohistosh Ve Perron, Pierre, (2009) “Testing For Multiple Structural Changes In Cointegrated Regression Models”, Purdue University Economics Working Papers, No. 1216.
  • Kwaitkowski, Denis, Phillips, Peter, Schmidt, Peter, Shin, Youngcheol, (1992). “Testing The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal Of Econometrics, 54: 159–178.
  • Labonte, Marc Ve Makinen, Gail, (2004) Monetary Policy And Price Stability. Nove Science Publishers, Inc., New York.
  • Lane, Philip Ve Perotti, Roberto, (1998) “The Importance Of Composition Of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From Different Exchange Rate Regimes”, Journal Of Public Economics, 87, 2253-2279.
  • Lee, Junsoo Ve Strazicich, Mark, (2003) “Minimum Lm Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks”, Review Of Economics And Statistics, 1082- 1089.
  • Lee, Junsoo Ve Strazicich, (2004) “Minimum Lm Unit Root Test With One Structural Breaks”, Apalachian State University Working Papers, No: 04-17.
  • Lumsdaine, Robin Ve Papell, David, (1999) “Two Structural Breaks And The Unit Root Hypothesis: New Evidence About Unemployment In Australia”, Working Paper Series Victoria Univ. Applied Economy Working Paper, No. 3/00.
  • Mackinnon, James, (1996), ‘Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root And Cointegration Tests’, Journal Of Applied Econometrics, Vol:11, 601–618.
  • Moccero, Diego Ve Winograd,Carlos, (2006), “ Real Exchange Rate Volatility And Exports:Argentina Perspectives”, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank Of New York, Vol. 2, October.
  • Monacelli, Tommaso Ve Perotti, Roberto, (2006) “Fiscal Policy, The Trade Balance, And The Real Exchange Rate: Implications For International Risk Sharing”, Cepr Working Paper, No. 1662.
  • Müller, Gernot, (2004) “Understanding The Dynamic Effects Of Government Spending On Foreign Trade”, Mimeo, European University Institute.
  • Narayan, Paresh Ve Smyth, Russel, (2005), “Electricity Consumption, Employment And Real Income In Australia Evidence From Multivariate Granger Causality Tests”, Energy Policy, Vol:33 , 1109-1116.
  • Ng, Serena Ve Perron, Pierre, (1996) “ Useful Modifications To Some Unit Root Tests With Dependent Errors And Their Local Asymptotic Properties”, Review Of Economic Studies, 63(3), Pp. 435-463.
  • Normandin, Michel, (1999) “Budget Deficit Persistence And The Twin Deficits Hypothesis”, Journal Of International Economics, 49, 171-193.
  • Perron, Pierre, (1997), “ The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis” , Econometrica, Vol:57
  • Perron, Pierre, (1997), “Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomic Variables, Journal Of Econometrics, Vol:80 (2), 385.
  • Roubini Nourel, (1988) “Current Account And Budget Deficits In An Intertemporal Model Of Consumption And Taxation Smoothing. A Solution To The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle”, Nber Working Paper, No. 2773.
  • Saikkonen, Pentti, (1991) ”Asymptotically Efficient Estimation Of Cointegration Regressions”, Econometric Theory, 7, 1-21.
  • Saleh, Ali Ve Harvie, Charles, (2005) “An Analysis Of Public Sector Deficits And Debt In Lebanon: 1970-2000”, The Middle East Review Of International Affairs, 9(4), 106-136.
  • Stock, James Ve Watson, Mark, (1993) “A Simple Estimator Of Cointegrating Vectors In Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61, 783- 820.
  • Syczewska, Eva, (2010), “Empirical Power Of The Kwiatkowski-Phillips- Schmidt-Shin Test”, Warsaw School Of Economics Institute Of Econometrics, Department Of Applied Econometrics Working Papers, No:3-10, 1-27
  • Şahin, Hüseyin (2009). Türkiye Ekonomisi, 10.B., Ezgi Kitabevi, Bursa.
  • Taylor, Alan Ve Taylor, Mark, (2004) “The Purchasing Power Parity Debate”, Journal Of Economics Perspective, 18(4), 135-158.
  • Temurlenk, Sinan Ve Oltulular, Sabiha, (2007), “Türkiye’nin Temel Makro Ekonomik Değişkenlerinin Bütünleşme Dereceleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma” ,İnönü Üniversitesi Ekonometri Ve İstatistik Kongresi.
  • Vamvouskas, George, (1997) “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Increasing Trade Deficits? Evidence From A Developing Country”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 25(1), 80-90.
  • Waheed, Muhammed, Tasneem, Alam Ve Ghauri, Saghir, (2007), “ Structural Breaks And Unit Root:Evidence From Pakistani Macroeconomics Time Series”, Munich Personal Repec Archive, No:1797, 1-20
  • Yao, Dennis, (1988) “Strategic Responses To Automobile Emissions Control: A Game-Theoretic Analysis”, Journal Of Environmental Economics And Management, 15, 419-438.
  • Yi, Kei-Mu, (1993) “Can Government Purchases Explain The Recent U.S. Net Export Deficits”, Journal Of International Economics, 35, 201-225.
  • Zivot, Eric, Andrews Donald, (1992) “Further Evidence On The Great Grash, The Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, Vol. 10(3), 251-270.
Year 2014, Volume: 6 Issue: 10, 39 - 55, 02.01.2015
https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.96062

Abstract

References

  • Ahmad, Shaghil. (1987) “Government Spending, The Balance Of Trade And The Terms Of Trade İn British History”, Journal Of Monetary Economics, 20, 195-220.
  • Alkswani, Alkhatip, (2000) “The Twin Deficit Phenomenon İn Petroleum Economy: Evidence From Saudi Arabia”, Seventh Annual Conference, Economic Research Forum, Amman.
  • Arai, Youchi Ve Kurozoumi, Eiji , (2007) ”Testing For The Null Hypothesis Of Cointegration With A Structural Break”, Econometric Reviews, 26, 705-739.
  • Bai, Jushan Ve Perron, Pierre, (1998) "Computation And Analysis Of Multiple Structural-Change Models", Cahiers De Recherche 9807, Universite De Montreal, Departement De Sciences Economiques.
  • Bai, Jushan Ve Perron, Pierre, (2003), “Computation And Analysis Of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal 0f Applied Econometrics, Vol:18, 1–22.
  • Cavallo, Michele, (2005) “Government Consumption Expenditures And The Current Account”, Federal Reserve Bank Of San Fransisco, Working Paper, No. 2005-03.
  • Chowdhury, Khorshed Ve Saleh, Ali Salman, (2007) “Testing The Keynesian Proposition Of Twin Deficits İn The Presence Of Ttrade Liberalisation: Evidence From Sri Lanka”, University Of Wollongong Economics Working Paper Series, No. Wp 07-09.
  • Darrat, Ahmed, (1988) “On Fiscal Policy And The Stock Market”, Journal Of Money, Credit, And Banking, 20, 353-362.
  • Delong, Brad, (2004) John Taylor Blasts Off For The Gamma Quadrant, In Brad De-Long’s Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog. İndirilme Adresi Http://Www.J-Bradforddelong.Net/Movable Archives/000519.Html. (Tarih: 15.01.2011). Type/2004-2
  • Ergec, Christopher, Guerrieri, Luca Ve Gust, Christopher, (2005) “Expansionary Fiscal Shocks And The Trade Deficit”, International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 825.
  • Esteve, Vicente, Ibanez, Manuel Ve Prats, Maria, (2010) “ The Spanish Term Structure Of Interest Rates Revisited:Cointegration With Multiple Structural Breaks,1974-2010”, Economia Aplicada Ii, Working Paper Series, Wps-2010-01, 1-23.
  • Glynn, John, Perera, Nelson Ve Verma, Reetu, (2007), “ Unit Root Tests And Structural Breaks: A Survey With Applications”, Revista De Metodos Quantitativos Para La Economica Empresa, July 2007, No:Se-2927- 06, 63-80
  • Hansen, Bruce, (1992) “Test For Parameter Instability In Regressions With I(1) Processes”, Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, 10, 321- 335.
  • Harne, Olivier, Doarau, Jean-François, (2007), “Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate”, Bulletin Of Economic Research, 59:4, 0307-3378
  • Hye, Muhammed Ve Ali, Asghar, (2010) “Relationship Between Budget Deficit And Trade Deficit: A Case Study Of Pakistan Economy”, The Uip Journal Of Monetary Economics, 9(1), 7-13.
  • Kejriwal, Mohitosh, (2008) ”Cointegration With Structural Breaks: An Application To The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle”, Studies In Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 12(1), 1-37.
  • Kejiriwal, Mohitosh Ve Perron, Pierre, (2008) ”The Limit Distribution Of The Estimates In Cointegrated Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes”, Journal Of Econometrics, 146, 59-73.
  • Kejiriwal, Mohistosh Ve Perron, Pierre, (2009) “Testing For Multiple Structural Changes In Cointegrated Regression Models”, Purdue University Economics Working Papers, No. 1216.
  • Kwaitkowski, Denis, Phillips, Peter, Schmidt, Peter, Shin, Youngcheol, (1992). “Testing The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity Against The Alternative Of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?”, Journal Of Econometrics, 54: 159–178.
  • Labonte, Marc Ve Makinen, Gail, (2004) Monetary Policy And Price Stability. Nove Science Publishers, Inc., New York.
  • Lane, Philip Ve Perotti, Roberto, (1998) “The Importance Of Composition Of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From Different Exchange Rate Regimes”, Journal Of Public Economics, 87, 2253-2279.
  • Lee, Junsoo Ve Strazicich, Mark, (2003) “Minimum Lm Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks”, Review Of Economics And Statistics, 1082- 1089.
  • Lee, Junsoo Ve Strazicich, (2004) “Minimum Lm Unit Root Test With One Structural Breaks”, Apalachian State University Working Papers, No: 04-17.
  • Lumsdaine, Robin Ve Papell, David, (1999) “Two Structural Breaks And The Unit Root Hypothesis: New Evidence About Unemployment In Australia”, Working Paper Series Victoria Univ. Applied Economy Working Paper, No. 3/00.
  • Mackinnon, James, (1996), ‘Numerical Distribution Functions For Unit Root And Cointegration Tests’, Journal Of Applied Econometrics, Vol:11, 601–618.
  • Moccero, Diego Ve Winograd,Carlos, (2006), “ Real Exchange Rate Volatility And Exports:Argentina Perspectives”, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank Of New York, Vol. 2, October.
  • Monacelli, Tommaso Ve Perotti, Roberto, (2006) “Fiscal Policy, The Trade Balance, And The Real Exchange Rate: Implications For International Risk Sharing”, Cepr Working Paper, No. 1662.
  • Müller, Gernot, (2004) “Understanding The Dynamic Effects Of Government Spending On Foreign Trade”, Mimeo, European University Institute.
  • Narayan, Paresh Ve Smyth, Russel, (2005), “Electricity Consumption, Employment And Real Income In Australia Evidence From Multivariate Granger Causality Tests”, Energy Policy, Vol:33 , 1109-1116.
  • Ng, Serena Ve Perron, Pierre, (1996) “ Useful Modifications To Some Unit Root Tests With Dependent Errors And Their Local Asymptotic Properties”, Review Of Economic Studies, 63(3), Pp. 435-463.
  • Normandin, Michel, (1999) “Budget Deficit Persistence And The Twin Deficits Hypothesis”, Journal Of International Economics, 49, 171-193.
  • Perron, Pierre, (1997), “ The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis” , Econometrica, Vol:57
  • Perron, Pierre, (1997), “Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomic Variables, Journal Of Econometrics, Vol:80 (2), 385.
  • Roubini Nourel, (1988) “Current Account And Budget Deficits In An Intertemporal Model Of Consumption And Taxation Smoothing. A Solution To The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle”, Nber Working Paper, No. 2773.
  • Saikkonen, Pentti, (1991) ”Asymptotically Efficient Estimation Of Cointegration Regressions”, Econometric Theory, 7, 1-21.
  • Saleh, Ali Ve Harvie, Charles, (2005) “An Analysis Of Public Sector Deficits And Debt In Lebanon: 1970-2000”, The Middle East Review Of International Affairs, 9(4), 106-136.
  • Stock, James Ve Watson, Mark, (1993) “A Simple Estimator Of Cointegrating Vectors In Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61, 783- 820.
  • Syczewska, Eva, (2010), “Empirical Power Of The Kwiatkowski-Phillips- Schmidt-Shin Test”, Warsaw School Of Economics Institute Of Econometrics, Department Of Applied Econometrics Working Papers, No:3-10, 1-27
  • Şahin, Hüseyin (2009). Türkiye Ekonomisi, 10.B., Ezgi Kitabevi, Bursa.
  • Taylor, Alan Ve Taylor, Mark, (2004) “The Purchasing Power Parity Debate”, Journal Of Economics Perspective, 18(4), 135-158.
  • Temurlenk, Sinan Ve Oltulular, Sabiha, (2007), “Türkiye’nin Temel Makro Ekonomik Değişkenlerinin Bütünleşme Dereceleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma” ,İnönü Üniversitesi Ekonometri Ve İstatistik Kongresi.
  • Vamvouskas, George, (1997) “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Increasing Trade Deficits? Evidence From A Developing Country”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 25(1), 80-90.
  • Waheed, Muhammed, Tasneem, Alam Ve Ghauri, Saghir, (2007), “ Structural Breaks And Unit Root:Evidence From Pakistani Macroeconomics Time Series”, Munich Personal Repec Archive, No:1797, 1-20
  • Yao, Dennis, (1988) “Strategic Responses To Automobile Emissions Control: A Game-Theoretic Analysis”, Journal Of Environmental Economics And Management, 15, 419-438.
  • Yi, Kei-Mu, (1993) “Can Government Purchases Explain The Recent U.S. Net Export Deficits”, Journal Of International Economics, 35, 201-225.
  • Zivot, Eric, Andrews Donald, (1992) “Further Evidence On The Great Grash, The Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, Vol. 10(3), 251-270.
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section RESEARCH PAPERS
Authors

Uğur Adıgüzel

Publication Date January 2, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 6 Issue: 10

Cite

APA Adıgüzel, U. (2015). TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?. Akademik Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 6(10), 39-55. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.96062
AMA Adıgüzel U. TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). January 2015;6(10):39-55. doi:10.20990/aacd.96062
Chicago Adıgüzel, Uğur. “TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?”. Akademik Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 6, no. 10 (January 2015): 39-55. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.96062.
EndNote Adıgüzel U (January 1, 2015) TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 6 10 39–55.
IEEE U. Adıgüzel, “TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?”, Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 39–55, 2015, doi: 10.20990/aacd.96062.
ISNAD Adıgüzel, Uğur. “TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?”. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 6/10 (January 2015), 39-55. https://doi.org/10.20990/aacd.96062.
JAMA Adıgüzel U. TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). 2015;6:39–55.
MLA Adıgüzel, Uğur. “TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?”. Akademik Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), vol. 6, no. 10, 2015, pp. 39-55, doi:10.20990/aacd.96062.
Vancouver Adıgüzel U. TÜRKİYE’DE KAMU HARCAMALARI DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLARI ÜZERİNDE ETKİLİ Mİ?. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). 2015;6(10):39-55.