Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE YURTİÇİ KREDİLERİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN ROLÜ

Year 2023, Volume: 11 Issue: 3, 142 - 162, 20.10.2023

Cemil Varlık

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1348126

Abstract

Gelişen piyasa ekonomilerinde, bankacılık kesiminin yurtiçi kredilerindeki hızlı düşüşlerin ve aşırı artışların ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemesi beklenen bir sonuçtur. Bu yüzden yurtiçi kredilerdeki çöküşün veya aşırı kredi genişlemesinin olumsuz etkilerini hafifletmeye yönelik politikaların oluşturulabilmesi için, yurtiçi kredi büyümesini belirleyen faktörlerin bilinmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 2004Q1-2020Q1 dönemi için sermaye girişlerinin yurtiçi kredi büyümesi üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi amacıyla, yedi değişken (GSYH büyümesi, tüketici fiyat enflasyonu, kredi faiz oranı, brüt sermaye girişleri, nominal döviz kuru, reel krediler ve reel borsa getirisi) içeren yapısal VAR modeli oluşturulmaktadır. Brüt sermaye girişlerinin farklı bileşenlerinin (FDI, portföy ve diğer yatırım girişleri), firmalara ve hane halklarına verilen banka kredileri üzerindeki etkileri de ayrı ayrı araştırılmaktadır. Etki tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması analizleri, bankaların toplam kredileri üzerinde; brüt FDI girişlerinin negatif, buna karşın brüt portföy girişlerinin ve brüt diğer yatırım girişlerinin pozitif etki yarattığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca brüt portföy hisse senedi girişleri ile bankalar ve diğer kesimlere dönük brüt diğer yatırım girişlerinin hem firma hem de hane halkı kredilerini pozitif ve anlamlı biçimde etkilediği kanıtlanmaktadır.

Keywords

Banka kredileri brüt sermaye girişleri yapısal VAR

References

  • Akinlo, A. E. ve Oni, I.O., (2015). “Determinants of Bank Credit Growth in Nigeria 1980-2010”, European Journal of Sustainable Development, 4(1), 23-30.
  • Arena, M., Bouza, S., Dabla-Norris, E., Gerling, K. ve Njie, L., (2015). “Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-income Countries”, IMF Working Paper, 15/11.
  • Awdeh, A., (2017). “The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon”, International Business Research, 10(2), 9-19.
  • Baskaya, Y.S., Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Peydro, J.L. ve Ulu, M.F., (2017). “Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel”, Journal of International Economics, 108, S15–S22.
  • Beck, T., Levine, R. ve Loayza, N., (2000). “Finance and the Sources of Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 261-300.
  • Belke, M. ve Kaya, H., (2017). “Türkiye’de Para Politikalarının Kredi Kanalı Aktarımı: VAR Yaklaşımı”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2 (3), 185-208.
  • Binici, M. ve Köksal, B., (2012). “Türkiye’de Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri ve Belirleyicileri”, MPRA Paper, No. 38032.
  • Blanchard, O., Ostry, J.D., Ghosh, A.R. ve Chamon, M., (2017). “Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence”, IMF Economic Review, 65(3), 563-585.
  • Calderon, C. ve Kubota, M., (2012). “Gross Inflows Gone Wild: Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 6270.
  • Çayır, B., (2021). “The Impacts of International Capital Flows on Household Credits”, Central Bank Review, 21, 131-140.
  • Davis, J., (2014). “The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt and Equity Based Capital Inflows”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper, No.214.
  • Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., Laeven, L. ve Tong, H., (2016). “Credit Booms and Macrofinancial Stability”, Economic Policy, 31(86), 299–357.
  • Demirguc–Kunt, A. ve Detragiache, E., (1998). “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility”, IMF Working Paper, No. 98/83.
  • Elekdag, S. ve Wu, Y., (2013). “Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-bust?”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 49(5), 45–62.
  • Elekdag, S. ve Han, F., (2015). “What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?”, Journal of Asian Economics, 38, 1-13.
  • Enders, W., (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
  • Furceri, D., Guichard, S. ve Rusticelli, E., (2012). “The Effect of Episodes of Large Capital Inflows on Domestic Credit”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(3), 325–344.
  • Ghosh, A.R. ve Qureshi, M.S., (2016). “Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences”, ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 585.
  • Gourinchas, P.O., Valdes, R. ve Landerretche, O., (2001). “Lending Booms: Latin America and the World”, NBER Working Paper, No.8249.
  • Gourinchas, P.O. ve Obstfeld, M., (2012). “Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-first”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4, 226–265.
  • Gözgör, G., (2014). “Determinants of Domestic Credit Levels in Emerging Markets: The Role of External Factors”, Emerging Markets Review, 18, 1–18.
  • Gözgör, G., (2018). “Determinants of the Domestic Credits in Developing Economies: The Role of Political Risks”, Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 430–443.
  • Guarin, A., Gonzalez, A., Skandalis, D., ve Sanchez, D., (2014). “An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates”, Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 32(73), 77- 86.
  • Guo, K. ve Stepanyan, V., (2011). “Determinants of Bank Credit in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No. 11/51.
  • Hanedar, A.Ö. ve Hanedar, E.Y., (2021). “Makroekonomik ve Kurumsal Faktörlerin Kredi Genişlemesine Etkisi: Dünya Ekonomisi İçin Güncel Bir İnceleme”, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13 (2), 1610-1618.
  • Hwa, T., Raghavan, M. ve Huey, T., (2017). “Macro-Financial Effects of Portfolio Flows: Malaysia’s Experience”, CAMA Working Paper, No. 35.
  • Igan, D. ve Tan, Z., (2015). “Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems”, IMF Working Paper, No. 15/193.
  • Imran, K. ve Nishat, M., (2013). “Determinants of Bank Credit in Pakistan: A Supply Side Approach”, Economic Modelling, 35, 384-390.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M. ve Taylor, A.M., (2011). “Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons”, IMF Economic Review, 59, 340–78.
  • Kaminsky, G. ve Reinhart, C.M., (1999). “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems”, American Economic Review, 89(3), 473–500.
  • Kara, H., (2012). “Küresel Kriz Sonrası Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, No:12/17.
  • Kim, S. ve Roubini, N., (2000). “Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 45, 561–586.
  • King, R.G. ve Levine, R., (1993). “Financial Intermediation and Economic Development”, Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation, içinde, Mayer, C. ve Vives, X.(Der.), Londra: Cambridge University Press, 156-189.
  • Kneer, C. ve Raabe, A., (2019). “Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK”, University of Zurich Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 326.
  • Küçükkocaoğlu, G., Kuzu, D.A. ve Göksu, G., (2019). “Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Kredi Hacmini Etkileyen Değişkenler ve Etki Düzeyleri”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 109, 3-21.
  • Lane, P.R. ve McQuade, P., (2014). “Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows”, Scandinavian Journal Of Economics, 116(1), 218–252.
  • Levine, R., (2004). “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10766.
  • Lotto, J., (2017). “Towards the Growth of Domestic Credit in Tanzania: Does Foreign Capital Flow Really Matter?”, African Journal of Business Management, 11(7), 140-148.
  • Mara, M.Y.I., Purwanto, N.M.A., Kurniati, I.N., Fauziah, N.R. ve Aqmaliyah, E., (2021). “Capital Flow and Banking Credit in Indonesia”, Economic Modelling, 95, 298–310.
  • Meng, C. ve Gonzalez, R.L., (2017). “Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?”, Open Economies Review, 28, 547–579.
  • Nalın, H.T. ve Taşdelen, S., (2016). “Bankalarda Kredi Arzını Etkileyen Faktörler”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53 (615), 65-75.
  • Nguyen, P.C., Schinckus, C., Su, T.D. ve Chong, F., (2018). “Institutions, Inward Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Credit Level in Emerging Market Economies”, Review of Development Finance, 8, 75-88.
  • Obstfeld, M. ve Rogoff, K., (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Orhangazi, Ö., (2014). “Capital Flows and Credit Expansions in Turkey”, Review of Radical Political Economics, 46(4), 509–516.
  • Rapih, S., (2021). “How International Capital Inflows and Domestic Financial Institutional Development Affect Domestic Credit: Evidence from Developing Countries”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 9, 1-22.
  • Samargandi, N. ve Kutan, A.M., (2016). “Private Credit Spillovers and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 44, 56–84.
  • Schularick, M. ve Taylor, A. M., (2012). “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008”, American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029–1061.
  • Sharma, P. ve Gounder, N., (2012). “Determinants of Bank Credit in Small Open Economies: The Case of Six Pacific Island Countries”, Griffith Business School Discussion Papers, No. 2012-13.
  • Özatay, F., (2014). “Turkey’s Distressing Dance with Capital Flows”, Tepav Report, No.2014/07.
  • Ünal, S.Z. ve Ocak, M., (2020). “Türkiye’de 2003-2018 Yılları Arasında Tüketici Kredi Hacmini Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Toros Üniversitesi İİSBF Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7 (12), 1-18.
  • Varlık, C., (2020). “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sermaye Girişlerinin Bileşenlerinin Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 16(2), 219-238.
  • Yiğitbaş, Ş.B., (2015). “Türkiye’de Özel Sektör İşletme Kredilerinin Belirleyicileri”, Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 47, 287-297.

DETERMINANTS OF DOMESTIC CREDITS IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY: THE ROLE OF CAPITAL INFLOWS

Year 2023, Volume: 11 Issue: 3, 142 - 162, 20.10.2023

Cemil Varlık

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1348126

Abstract

In emerging market economies, it is an expected result that the rapid declines and excessive increases in domestic credits of banking sector will negatively affect economic growth. Therefore, in order to design policies to mitigate the negative effects of domestic credit collapse or excessive credit expansion, it is necessary to know the factors that determine domestic credit growth. In this study, a structural VAR model which includes seven variables (GDP growth, consumer price inflation, lending interest rate, gross capital inflows, nominal exchange rate, real bank loans, and real stock returns) is estimated for the period 2004Q1-2020Q1. The effects of different components of gross capital inflows (FDI, portfolio and other investment inflows) on bank loans to firms and households are also examined separately. Impulse response and variance decomposition analyzes show that gross FDI inflows have a negative effect on banks' total loans, whereas gross portfolio and gross other investment inflows have a positive effect. In addition, it is proven that gross portfolio equity inflows and gross other investment inflows to banks and other sectors positively and significantly affect both firm and household loans.

Keywords

bank loans gross capital inflows yapısal VAR

References

  • Akinlo, A. E. ve Oni, I.O., (2015). “Determinants of Bank Credit Growth in Nigeria 1980-2010”, European Journal of Sustainable Development, 4(1), 23-30.
  • Arena, M., Bouza, S., Dabla-Norris, E., Gerling, K. ve Njie, L., (2015). “Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-income Countries”, IMF Working Paper, 15/11.
  • Awdeh, A., (2017). “The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon”, International Business Research, 10(2), 9-19.
  • Baskaya, Y.S., Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Peydro, J.L. ve Ulu, M.F., (2017). “Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel”, Journal of International Economics, 108, S15–S22.
  • Beck, T., Levine, R. ve Loayza, N., (2000). “Finance and the Sources of Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 261-300.
  • Belke, M. ve Kaya, H., (2017). “Türkiye’de Para Politikalarının Kredi Kanalı Aktarımı: VAR Yaklaşımı”, Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2 (3), 185-208.
  • Binici, M. ve Köksal, B., (2012). “Türkiye’de Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri ve Belirleyicileri”, MPRA Paper, No. 38032.
  • Blanchard, O., Ostry, J.D., Ghosh, A.R. ve Chamon, M., (2017). “Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence”, IMF Economic Review, 65(3), 563-585.
  • Calderon, C. ve Kubota, M., (2012). “Gross Inflows Gone Wild: Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 6270.
  • Çayır, B., (2021). “The Impacts of International Capital Flows on Household Credits”, Central Bank Review, 21, 131-140.
  • Davis, J., (2014). “The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt and Equity Based Capital Inflows”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper, No.214.
  • Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., Laeven, L. ve Tong, H., (2016). “Credit Booms and Macrofinancial Stability”, Economic Policy, 31(86), 299–357.
  • Demirguc–Kunt, A. ve Detragiache, E., (1998). “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility”, IMF Working Paper, No. 98/83.
  • Elekdag, S. ve Wu, Y., (2013). “Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-bust?”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 49(5), 45–62.
  • Elekdag, S. ve Han, F., (2015). “What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?”, Journal of Asian Economics, 38, 1-13.
  • Enders, W., (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
  • Furceri, D., Guichard, S. ve Rusticelli, E., (2012). “The Effect of Episodes of Large Capital Inflows on Domestic Credit”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(3), 325–344.
  • Ghosh, A.R. ve Qureshi, M.S., (2016). “Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences”, ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 585.
  • Gourinchas, P.O., Valdes, R. ve Landerretche, O., (2001). “Lending Booms: Latin America and the World”, NBER Working Paper, No.8249.
  • Gourinchas, P.O. ve Obstfeld, M., (2012). “Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-first”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4, 226–265.
  • Gözgör, G., (2014). “Determinants of Domestic Credit Levels in Emerging Markets: The Role of External Factors”, Emerging Markets Review, 18, 1–18.
  • Gözgör, G., (2018). “Determinants of the Domestic Credits in Developing Economies: The Role of Political Risks”, Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 430–443.
  • Guarin, A., Gonzalez, A., Skandalis, D., ve Sanchez, D., (2014). “An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates”, Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 32(73), 77- 86.
  • Guo, K. ve Stepanyan, V., (2011). “Determinants of Bank Credit in Emerging Market Economies”, IMF Working Paper, No. 11/51.
  • Hanedar, A.Ö. ve Hanedar, E.Y., (2021). “Makroekonomik ve Kurumsal Faktörlerin Kredi Genişlemesine Etkisi: Dünya Ekonomisi İçin Güncel Bir İnceleme”, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13 (2), 1610-1618.
  • Hwa, T., Raghavan, M. ve Huey, T., (2017). “Macro-Financial Effects of Portfolio Flows: Malaysia’s Experience”, CAMA Working Paper, No. 35.
  • Igan, D. ve Tan, Z., (2015). “Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems”, IMF Working Paper, No. 15/193.
  • Imran, K. ve Nishat, M., (2013). “Determinants of Bank Credit in Pakistan: A Supply Side Approach”, Economic Modelling, 35, 384-390.
  • Jorda, O., Schularick, M. ve Taylor, A.M., (2011). “Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons”, IMF Economic Review, 59, 340–78.
  • Kaminsky, G. ve Reinhart, C.M., (1999). “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems”, American Economic Review, 89(3), 473–500.
  • Kara, H., (2012). “Küresel Kriz Sonrası Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, No:12/17.
  • Kim, S. ve Roubini, N., (2000). “Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 45, 561–586.
  • King, R.G. ve Levine, R., (1993). “Financial Intermediation and Economic Development”, Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation, içinde, Mayer, C. ve Vives, X.(Der.), Londra: Cambridge University Press, 156-189.
  • Kneer, C. ve Raabe, A., (2019). “Tracking Foreign Capital: The Effect of Capital Inflows on Bank Lending in the UK”, University of Zurich Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 326.
  • Küçükkocaoğlu, G., Kuzu, D.A. ve Göksu, G., (2019). “Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Kredi Hacmini Etkileyen Değişkenler ve Etki Düzeyleri”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 109, 3-21.
  • Lane, P.R. ve McQuade, P., (2014). “Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows”, Scandinavian Journal Of Economics, 116(1), 218–252.
  • Levine, R., (2004). “Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10766.
  • Lotto, J., (2017). “Towards the Growth of Domestic Credit in Tanzania: Does Foreign Capital Flow Really Matter?”, African Journal of Business Management, 11(7), 140-148.
  • Mara, M.Y.I., Purwanto, N.M.A., Kurniati, I.N., Fauziah, N.R. ve Aqmaliyah, E., (2021). “Capital Flow and Banking Credit in Indonesia”, Economic Modelling, 95, 298–310.
  • Meng, C. ve Gonzalez, R.L., (2017). “Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?”, Open Economies Review, 28, 547–579.
  • Nalın, H.T. ve Taşdelen, S., (2016). “Bankalarda Kredi Arzını Etkileyen Faktörler”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53 (615), 65-75.
  • Nguyen, P.C., Schinckus, C., Su, T.D. ve Chong, F., (2018). “Institutions, Inward Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Credit Level in Emerging Market Economies”, Review of Development Finance, 8, 75-88.
  • Obstfeld, M. ve Rogoff, K., (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Orhangazi, Ö., (2014). “Capital Flows and Credit Expansions in Turkey”, Review of Radical Political Economics, 46(4), 509–516.
  • Rapih, S., (2021). “How International Capital Inflows and Domestic Financial Institutional Development Affect Domestic Credit: Evidence from Developing Countries”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 9, 1-22.
  • Samargandi, N. ve Kutan, A.M., (2016). “Private Credit Spillovers and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 44, 56–84.
  • Schularick, M. ve Taylor, A. M., (2012). “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008”, American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029–1061.
  • Sharma, P. ve Gounder, N., (2012). “Determinants of Bank Credit in Small Open Economies: The Case of Six Pacific Island Countries”, Griffith Business School Discussion Papers, No. 2012-13.
  • Özatay, F., (2014). “Turkey’s Distressing Dance with Capital Flows”, Tepav Report, No.2014/07.
  • Ünal, S.Z. ve Ocak, M., (2020). “Türkiye’de 2003-2018 Yılları Arasında Tüketici Kredi Hacmini Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, Toros Üniversitesi İİSBF Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7 (12), 1-18.
  • Varlık, C., (2020). “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sermaye Girişlerinin Bileşenlerinin Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 16(2), 219-238.
  • Yiğitbaş, Ş.B., (2015). “Türkiye’de Özel Sektör İşletme Kredilerinin Belirleyicileri”, Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 47, 287-297.
There are 52 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Political Geography
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Cemil Varlık 0000-0001-9977-2876

Publication Date October 20, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 11 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Varlık, C. (2023). TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE YURTİÇİ KREDİLERİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNİN ROLÜ. Nişantaşı Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(3), 142-162. https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1348126
 Download Cover Image

Nişantaşı Üniversitesi kurumsal yayınıdır.