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MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Year 2023, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 129 - 134, 30.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765

Abstract

Purpose- In this study, it is aimed to investigate the effects of global uncertainty shocks on the macroeconomic variables of the Turkish economy.
Methodology- In the study, the global world uncertainty index (WUI) constructed by Ahir et al. (2022) is used as an indicator of global uncertainty. A structural auto regressive (SVAR) model is established, which includes five variables (global uncertainty indicator, economic growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and interest rate). In addition, three real variables representing economic activity (real consumption, real investment and real bank loans) are substituted for unemployment rate in the model, respectively. The data set covers the period 2003Q1-2020Q1.
Findings- According to the findings of impulse response and variance decomposition analyses, real GDP growth, real consumption growth, real investment growth and real credit growth react negatively and significantly to an increase in global uncertainty. On the other hand, inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate respond positively and significantly to an increase in global uncertainty. These results prove that a global uncertainty shock creates the similar effects of a negative supply shock on the Turkish economy. In addition, the robustness of the findings is checked using the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) index developed by Baker et al. (2016).
Conclusion- In the light of these findings, it can be suggested that the negative effects of global uncertainty shocks on domestic macroeconomic indicators should be mitigated through monetary and fiscal policies.

References

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N., Furceri, D. (2022). The world uncertainty index. NBER Working Paper, No. 29763.
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N., Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
  • Berger, T., Grabert, S., Kempa, B. (2016). Global and country-specific output growth uncertainty and macroeconomic performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5), 694–716.
  • Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., Park, W. Y. (2020). Global spillover effects of US uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 114, 71–89.
  • Biljanovska, N., Grigoli, F., Hengge, M. (2017). Fear thy neighbor: Spil¬lovers from economic policy uncertainty. IMF Working Papers, No: 17/240.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77 (3), 623-685.
  • Bloom, N. (2017). Observations on uncertainty. The Australian Economic Review, 50(1), 79-84.
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., Figueres, J. M. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(1), 125-155.
  • Carrière-Swallow, Y., Céspedes, L.F. (2013). The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies. Journal of International Economics, 90, 316–325.
  • Cheng, C.H.J. (2017). Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea. Journal of Asian Economics, 51, 1–11.
  • Choi, S. (2018). The impact of US financial uncertainty shocks on emerging market economies: An international credit channel. Open Economies Review, 29, 89–118.
  • Colombo, V. (2013). Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?. Economics Letters, 121, 39–42.
  • Daştan, M., Karabulut, K. (2021). Küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliklerinin makroekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Trends in Business and Economics, 36(1), 133-142.
  • Davis, S.J. (2016). An index of global economic policy uncertainty, NBER Working Paper, No: 22740.
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J.W., Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, financial frictions, and investment dynamics. NBER Working Paper, No. 20038.
  • Hwang, S.J., Suh, H. (2021). Overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy. Journal of Asian Economics, 76, 1-25.
  • Luk,P., Cheng, M., Ng, P., Wong, K. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The case of Hong Kong. Pacific Economic Review, 25, 21–46.
  • Ordu Akkaya, B.M. (2019). US economic policy uncertainty and loan growth: Evidence from Turkey. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 54(3), 1049-1063.
  • Ozturk, E.O., Sheng, X.S. (2018). Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 276–295.
  • Suah, J.L. (2022). Impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks: Theory and global empirics. Journal of Asian Economics, 82, 1-17.
  • Trung, N.B. (2019). The spillover effect of the US uncertainty on emerging economies: A panel VAR approach. Applied Economics Letters, 26(3), 210-216.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö., Daştan, M. (2020). Effects of global economic, political and geopolitical uncertainties on the Turkish economy: A SVAR analysis. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 23 (1), 97-116.

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ

Year 2023, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 129 - 134, 30.07.2023
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765

Abstract

Amaç- Bu çalışmada küresel belirsizlik şoklarının, Türkiye ekonomisinin makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır.
Metodoloji- Çalışmada küresel belirsizliğin göstergesi olarak Ahir vd. (2022) tarafından oluşturulan küresel dünya belirsizlik endeksi (WUI) kullanılmaktadır. Beş değişken (küresel belirsizlik göstergesi, ekonomik büyüme oranı, enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve faiz oranı) içeren bir yapısal vektör otoregresif (SVAR) model kurulmaktadır. Ayrıca modelde işsizlik oranı yerine ekonomik aktiviteyi temsil etmek üzere üç reel değişken (reel tüketim, reel yatırım ve reel banka kredileri) sırasıyla kullanılmaktadır. Ele alınan veri seti, 2003Q1-2020Q1 dönemini kapsamaktadır.
Bulgular- Etki tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması analizlerinin bulgularına göre, reel GSYH büyümesi, reel tüketim büyümesi, reel yatırım büyümesi ve reel kredi büyümesi küresel belirsizlikteki artışa negatif ve anlamlı tepki vermektedir. Buna karşın enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve faiz oranı küresel belirsizlik artışına pozitif ve anlamlı tepki vermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, küresel belirsizlik şoklarının yurtiçi ekonomi üzerinde olumsuz arz şoklarına benzer etkiler yarattığını kanıtlamaktadır. Ayrıca Baker vd. (2016) tarafından geliştirilen küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği (GEPU) endeksi kullanılarak bulguların sağlamlığı kontrol edilmektedir.
Sonuç- Bu bulgular ışığında küresel belirsizlik şokları karşısında para ve maliye politikaları aracılığıyla, yurtiçi makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerin hafifletilmesi önerilebilir.

References

  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N., Furceri, D. (2022). The world uncertainty index. NBER Working Paper, No. 29763.
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N., Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
  • Berger, T., Grabert, S., Kempa, B. (2016). Global and country-specific output growth uncertainty and macroeconomic performance. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(5), 694–716.
  • Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., Park, W. Y. (2020). Global spillover effects of US uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 114, 71–89.
  • Biljanovska, N., Grigoli, F., Hengge, M. (2017). Fear thy neighbor: Spil¬lovers from economic policy uncertainty. IMF Working Papers, No: 17/240.
  • Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77 (3), 623-685.
  • Bloom, N. (2017). Observations on uncertainty. The Australian Economic Review, 50(1), 79-84.
  • Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., Figueres, J. M. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(1), 125-155.
  • Carrière-Swallow, Y., Céspedes, L.F. (2013). The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies. Journal of International Economics, 90, 316–325.
  • Cheng, C.H.J. (2017). Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea. Journal of Asian Economics, 51, 1–11.
  • Choi, S. (2018). The impact of US financial uncertainty shocks on emerging market economies: An international credit channel. Open Economies Review, 29, 89–118.
  • Colombo, V. (2013). Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?. Economics Letters, 121, 39–42.
  • Daştan, M., Karabulut, K. (2021). Küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliklerinin makroekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Trends in Business and Economics, 36(1), 133-142.
  • Davis, S.J. (2016). An index of global economic policy uncertainty, NBER Working Paper, No: 22740.
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J.W., Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, financial frictions, and investment dynamics. NBER Working Paper, No. 20038.
  • Hwang, S.J., Suh, H. (2021). Overall and time-varying effects of global and domestic uncertainty on the Korean economy. Journal of Asian Economics, 76, 1-25.
  • Luk,P., Cheng, M., Ng, P., Wong, K. (2020). Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The case of Hong Kong. Pacific Economic Review, 25, 21–46.
  • Ordu Akkaya, B.M. (2019). US economic policy uncertainty and loan growth: Evidence from Turkey. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 54(3), 1049-1063.
  • Ozturk, E.O., Sheng, X.S. (2018). Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 276–295.
  • Suah, J.L. (2022). Impact of uncertainty and exchange rate shocks: Theory and global empirics. Journal of Asian Economics, 82, 1-17.
  • Trung, N.B. (2019). The spillover effect of the US uncertainty on emerging economies: A panel VAR approach. Applied Economics Letters, 26(3), 210-216.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö., Daştan, M. (2020). Effects of global economic, political and geopolitical uncertainties on the Turkish economy: A SVAR analysis. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 23 (1), 97-116.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Cemil Varlık 0000-0001-9977-2876

Publication Date July 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 17 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Varlık, C. (2023). TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ. PressAcademia Procedia, 17(1), 129-134. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765
AMA Varlık C. TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ. PAP. July 2023;17(1):129-134. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765
Chicago Varlık, Cemil. “TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ”. PressAcademia Procedia 17, no. 1 (July 2023): 129-34. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765.
EndNote Varlık C (July 1, 2023) TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ. PressAcademia Procedia 17 1 129–134.
IEEE C. Varlık, “TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ”, PAP, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 129–134, 2023, doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765.
ISNAD Varlık, Cemil. “TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ”. PressAcademia Procedia 17/1 (July 2023), 129-134. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765.
JAMA Varlık C. TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ. PAP. 2023;17:129–134.
MLA Varlık, Cemil. “TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ”. PressAcademia Procedia, vol. 17, no. 1, 2023, pp. 129-34, doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2023.1765.
Vancouver Varlık C. TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE KÜRESEL BELİRSİZLİĞİN MAKROEKONOMİK ETKİLERİ. PAP. 2023;17(1):129-34.

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