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NE İHRAÇ ETTİĞİMİZ ÖNEMLİ MİDİR? TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ DIŞ TİCARETİNİN UZMANLAŞMA SEVİYESİ ÜZERİNE

Year 2018, 18. EYI Special Issue, 735 - 752, 20.01.2018
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.345968

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada, EXPY olarak adlandırılan ihracat sofistikasyonun dış ticaret hadleri
ve ekonomik büyüme süreci üzerindeki etkileri 13 ürün grubu için Türkiye
ekonomisinde 1995-2015 dönemi itibariyle yapısal kırılmalı zaman serisi
analizleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Durağan durum dengesine doğru yakınsama
sürecinin geçerli olduğunu gösteren analiz bulguları, ileri teknoloji ve
sermaye-yoğunluğuna sahip endüstrilerdeki ihracat sofistikesinin ekonomik
büyümeyi ve dış ticaret hadlerini artırdığını, buna karşın emek ve doğal
kaynak-yoğunluğu yüksek olan endüstrilerin ihracat sofistikesinin ise ekonomik
büyüme ve dış ticaret hadlerini kötüleştirdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca,
ekonomik ve finansal kriz dönemlerinde ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret
hadlerinin negatif yönlü olarak etkilendikleri de gözlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda,
Türkiye ekonomisi için dış ticaretin başlayıp başlamadığının önemli olmadığı
söylenebilir, önemli olan husus Türkiye’nin hangi ürünleri ihraç ettiğidir. 

References

  • Balassa, B. (1965). Trade Liberalisation and ‘Revealed’ Comparative Advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99-123.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D. ve Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Test with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754-1792.
  • Chen, Y. ve Xiong, X. (2014). An Empirical Analysis for Over-Sophisticated Export and Regional Economic Growth. Modern Economy, 5, 1114-1119.
  • Day, J. ve Ellis, P. (2013). Growth in Indonesia’s Manufacturing Sectors: Urban and Localization Contributions. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 5(3), 343-369.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M. ve Bölükbaş, M. (2015). Bankacılık Sektörü Kredilerinin İstihdam ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(2), 65-84.
  • Grancay, M., Grancay, N. ve Dudas, T. (2015). What You Export Matters: Does It Really?. Contemporary Economics, 9(2), 233-244.
  • Gregory, A. W. ve Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Guerson, A., Parks, J. ve Torrado, M. P. (2007). Export Structure and Growth: A Detailed Analysis for Argentina. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 4237.
  • Hausmann, R., Hwang, J. ve Rodrik, D. (2007). What You Export Matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1-25.
  • Jarreau, J. ve Poncet, S. (2012). Export Sophistication and Economic Growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), 281-292.
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • Minondo, A. (2010a). Exports’ Quality-Adjusted Productivity and Economic Growth. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 19(2), 257-287.
  • Minondo, A. (2010b). Exports’ Productivity and Growth across Spanish Regions. Regional Studies, 44(5), 569-577.
  • Mishra, S., Lundstrom, S. ve Anand, R. (2011). Service Export Sophistication and Economic Growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 5606.
  • Mora, J. ve Singh, N. (2013). Trade Productivity Upgrading, Trade Fragmentation and FDI in Manufacturing: The Asian Development Experience. Indian Growth and Development Review, 6(1), 61-87.
  • Ohlin, B. (1933). International and Interregional Trade. USA: Harvard University Press.
  • Ricardo, D. (2008 [1817]). Siyasal İktisadın ve Vergilendirmenin Temel İlkeleri. Çev: Barış Zeren. İstanbul: İş bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2011). Trade Specialization, Export Productivity and Growth in Brazil, China, India, South Africa and a Cross Section of Countries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 44(1-2), 75-97.
  • Smith, A. (2011 [1776]). Milletlerin Zenginliği (5. Baskı). Çev: Haldun Derin. İstanbul: İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Van Dijk, M. (2002). The Determinants of Export Performance in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesian Manufacturing. Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies Working Paper, No: 02/01.

IS IT IMPORTANT WHAT WE EXPORT? ON THE SPECIALIZATION LEVEL OF FOREIGN TRADE IN TURKISH ECONOMY

Year 2018, 18. EYI Special Issue, 735 - 752, 20.01.2018
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.345968

Abstract

In
this study, the effect of export sophistication, EXPY, on the terms of trade
and the process of economic growth is examined using time series analysis with
structural breaks for 13 product groups in the period of 1995-2015 in Turkish
economy. The findings of the analysis indicating the validity of convergence
process towards steady-state equilibrium point out that the export
sophistication of the higher capital and technology-intensive industries rises
economic growth and terms of trade, while the sophistication level of the
higher labor and natural resource-intensive industries worsens them. Besides,
in times of economic and financial crises, it is observed that economic growth
and terms of trade are affected negatively. Therefore, it can be asserted that
it is not important for Turkish economy whether foreign trade begins or not,
the important thing is what kind of goods Turkey exports.

References

  • Balassa, B. (1965). Trade Liberalisation and ‘Revealed’ Comparative Advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99-123.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D. ve Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Test with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754-1792.
  • Chen, Y. ve Xiong, X. (2014). An Empirical Analysis for Over-Sophisticated Export and Regional Economic Growth. Modern Economy, 5, 1114-1119.
  • Day, J. ve Ellis, P. (2013). Growth in Indonesia’s Manufacturing Sectors: Urban and Localization Contributions. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 5(3), 343-369.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M. ve Bölükbaş, M. (2015). Bankacılık Sektörü Kredilerinin İstihdam ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(2), 65-84.
  • Grancay, M., Grancay, N. ve Dudas, T. (2015). What You Export Matters: Does It Really?. Contemporary Economics, 9(2), 233-244.
  • Gregory, A. W. ve Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Guerson, A., Parks, J. ve Torrado, M. P. (2007). Export Structure and Growth: A Detailed Analysis for Argentina. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 4237.
  • Hausmann, R., Hwang, J. ve Rodrik, D. (2007). What You Export Matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1-25.
  • Jarreau, J. ve Poncet, S. (2012). Export Sophistication and Economic Growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), 281-292.
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • Minondo, A. (2010a). Exports’ Quality-Adjusted Productivity and Economic Growth. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 19(2), 257-287.
  • Minondo, A. (2010b). Exports’ Productivity and Growth across Spanish Regions. Regional Studies, 44(5), 569-577.
  • Mishra, S., Lundstrom, S. ve Anand, R. (2011). Service Export Sophistication and Economic Growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 5606.
  • Mora, J. ve Singh, N. (2013). Trade Productivity Upgrading, Trade Fragmentation and FDI in Manufacturing: The Asian Development Experience. Indian Growth and Development Review, 6(1), 61-87.
  • Ohlin, B. (1933). International and Interregional Trade. USA: Harvard University Press.
  • Ricardo, D. (2008 [1817]). Siyasal İktisadın ve Vergilendirmenin Temel İlkeleri. Çev: Barış Zeren. İstanbul: İş bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2011). Trade Specialization, Export Productivity and Growth in Brazil, China, India, South Africa and a Cross Section of Countries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 44(1-2), 75-97.
  • Smith, A. (2011 [1776]). Milletlerin Zenginliği (5. Baskı). Çev: Haldun Derin. İstanbul: İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
  • Solow, R. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Van Dijk, M. (2002). The Determinants of Export Performance in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesian Manufacturing. Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies Working Paper, No: 02/01.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Merter Akıncı

Ömer Yılmaz

Haktan Sevinç

Publication Date January 20, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 18. EYI Special Issue

Cite

APA Akıncı, M., Yılmaz, Ö., & Sevinç, H. (2018). NE İHRAÇ ETTİĞİMİZ ÖNEMLİ MİDİR? TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ DIŞ TİCARETİNİN UZMANLAŞMA SEVİYESİ ÜZERİNE. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi735-752. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.345968

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