Öz
Among the factors of production, the most needed factor in developing countries is capital. Capital transfer between countries has become very important with the acceleration of globalization. In this context, it is seen that developing countries focus more on foreign direct investment in terms of their economic development. In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investment and consumer price index, indicator interest rate, GDP and trade openness ratio which are thought to affect these investments are analyzed for Turkey's case, as of the last decade between the first quarter of 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2019. According to the empirical findings, it was found that the variables were cointegrated in the long term, in other words, the variables were related to each other in the long term and moved in the same direction.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Foreign Direct Investment Macro Variables Time Series Analysis
Kaynakça
- Alguacil, M. T., Cuadros, A. & Orts, V. (2002). “Foreign direct investment, exports and domestic performance in Mexico: A causality analysis”. Economic Letters, 77: 371-376. Alıcı, A. A. & Ucal, M. Ş. (2003). “Foreign direct investment, exports and output growth of Turkey: causality analysis”. European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference (1-17.pp.). http: //www.etsg.org/ETSG2003/papers/alici.pdf Aseidu, E. (2002). “On the Determinants on Foreign Direct Investment to Developing countries: Is Africa Different?”. World Development, 30(1): 107-119. Asteriou, D. & Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied econometrics. Palgra and Macmillan, New York. Campos, N. F. & Kinoshita, Y. (2003). “Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transition Economies”. IMF Working Papers 03/228, International Monetary Fund. Dumludağ, D. & Şükrüoğlu, D. (2007). “The impact of macroeconomic and institutional variables on foreign direct investment flows in emerging market”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 23(2): 133-166. Emirmahmutoğlu, F. & Köse, N. (2011). “Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels”. Economic Modelling, 28 : 870-876. Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons Inc, New York. Granger, C.WJ. (1969). “Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods”. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438. Granger, C.WJ. & Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious in econometrics”. Journal Of Economics, 2: 111-120.
- Gürsoy, F. & Kalyoncu, H. (2012).” Foreign Direct Investment and Growth Relationship in Georgia”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3): 267-271. Hansen, H., Rand. J. & Tarp. F. (2003). “Are FDI Inflows Complements or Substitutes Across Borders: Empirical Evidence from Five Asian Economies”. MPRA Paper 72834, University Library of Munich, Germany. Johansen, S. (1991). “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models”. Econometrica, 59:1551-1580. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based ınference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press, England Koyuncu, F.T. (2010). “TÜRKİYE’DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN YAPISAL VAR ANALİZİ: 1990-2009 DÖNEMİ”. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1): 55-62. Marjanović, V. & Marjanović, M. (2014). “Simulation of industrial development as the key determinant of the strategy of Serbia economic restructuring”. Teme, 38(4): 1425–1444. Michailova, S. & Ang, S. H. (2008). “Institutional Explanations of Cross-Alliance Modes: The Case of Emerging Economies Firms”. Management International Review: 551-576. Montero, A. P. (2008). “Macroeconomic deeds, not reform words: The determinants of foreign direct investment in Latin America”. Latin American Research Review, 43 (1): 55-83. Özer, M. & Coşkun, İ. O. (2011). “Sustainability of Turkish current account deficit in the post crisis period”. Nibes Transactions, 5(2): 67-82. Portilla, P.G., Maza, A., Villaverde, J. & Hierro, M. (2016). “Foreign direct investment in the Spanish regions: What are the influencing factors? “. Investigaciones Regionales – Journal of Regional Research, 35: 67-82. Pradhan, R. P. (2009). “The FDI-led- growth hypothesis in ASEAN-5 countries: Evidence from cointegrated panel analysis”. International Journal of Business and Management, 4(12): 153-164. Ranđelović, P. M, Milić, J. V. & Kostadinović, I. (2017). “Market size as a determinant of the foreign direct investment in flows in the Western Balkans countries”. Facta Universitatis, Series: Economics and Organization, 14(2): 93 –104. Reichert, U.N. & Weinhold. D. (2001). “Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(2): 153-171. Sims, C. (1980). “Macroeconomics and reality”. Econometrica, 48: 1-49. Sunde, T. (2017). “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth: ADRL and Causality Analysis for South Africa”. Research in International Business and Finance, 41: 434-444. Şahbaz, A. (2014). “SABİT SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ”. Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(1): 1-12. Tarı, R. (2005). Ekonometri. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul. Topallı, N. (2016). “DOĞRUDAN SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI, TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: TÜRKİYE VE BRICS ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ”. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17 (1): 83-95. Villaverde, J. & Maza, A. (2012). “Foreign direct investment in Spain: Regional distribution and determinants”. International Business Review, 21(4): 722-733. Yılmaz, Ö. & Akıncı, M. (2011). “İktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler bilançosu arasındaki ilişki:Türkiye örneği”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15 (2): 363-377. Yorulmaz, Ö., Yakut, S.G. & Gacar, B.K. (2018). “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımları Etkileyen Faktörlerin Çok Değişkenli İstatistiksel Yöntemler İle İncelenmesi”. Uluslar arası İnsan Çalışmaları Dergisi, 1(2): 157-171.
Öz
Among the factors of production, the most needed factor in developing countries is capital. Capital transfer between countries has become very important with the acceleration of globalization. In this context, it is seen that developing countries focus more on foreign direct investment in terms of their economic development. In this study, the relationship between foreign direct investment and consumer price index, indicator interest rate, GDP and trade openness ratio which are thought to affect these investments are analyzed for Turkey's case, as of the last decade between the first quarter of 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2019. According to the empirical findings, it was found that the variables were cointegrated in the long term, in other words, the variables were related to each other in the long term and moved in the same direction.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Foreign Direct Investment Macro Variables Time Series Analysis
Kaynakça
- Alguacil, M. T., Cuadros, A. & Orts, V. (2002). “Foreign direct investment, exports and domestic performance in Mexico: A causality analysis”. Economic Letters, 77: 371-376. Alıcı, A. A. & Ucal, M. Ş. (2003). “Foreign direct investment, exports and output growth of Turkey: causality analysis”. European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference (1-17.pp.). http: //www.etsg.org/ETSG2003/papers/alici.pdf Aseidu, E. (2002). “On the Determinants on Foreign Direct Investment to Developing countries: Is Africa Different?”. World Development, 30(1): 107-119. Asteriou, D. & Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied econometrics. Palgra and Macmillan, New York. Campos, N. F. & Kinoshita, Y. (2003). “Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transition Economies”. IMF Working Papers 03/228, International Monetary Fund. Dumludağ, D. & Şükrüoğlu, D. (2007). “The impact of macroeconomic and institutional variables on foreign direct investment flows in emerging market”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 23(2): 133-166. Emirmahmutoğlu, F. & Köse, N. (2011). “Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels”. Economic Modelling, 28 : 870-876. Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons Inc, New York. Granger, C.WJ. (1969). “Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods”. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438. Granger, C.WJ. & Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious in econometrics”. Journal Of Economics, 2: 111-120.
- Gürsoy, F. & Kalyoncu, H. (2012).” Foreign Direct Investment and Growth Relationship in Georgia”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3): 267-271. Hansen, H., Rand. J. & Tarp. F. (2003). “Are FDI Inflows Complements or Substitutes Across Borders: Empirical Evidence from Five Asian Economies”. MPRA Paper 72834, University Library of Munich, Germany. Johansen, S. (1991). “Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models”. Econometrica, 59:1551-1580. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based ınference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press, England Koyuncu, F.T. (2010). “TÜRKİYE’DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLERİN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN YAPISAL VAR ANALİZİ: 1990-2009 DÖNEMİ”. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1): 55-62. Marjanović, V. & Marjanović, M. (2014). “Simulation of industrial development as the key determinant of the strategy of Serbia economic restructuring”. Teme, 38(4): 1425–1444. Michailova, S. & Ang, S. H. (2008). “Institutional Explanations of Cross-Alliance Modes: The Case of Emerging Economies Firms”. Management International Review: 551-576. Montero, A. P. (2008). “Macroeconomic deeds, not reform words: The determinants of foreign direct investment in Latin America”. Latin American Research Review, 43 (1): 55-83. Özer, M. & Coşkun, İ. O. (2011). “Sustainability of Turkish current account deficit in the post crisis period”. Nibes Transactions, 5(2): 67-82. Portilla, P.G., Maza, A., Villaverde, J. & Hierro, M. (2016). “Foreign direct investment in the Spanish regions: What are the influencing factors? “. Investigaciones Regionales – Journal of Regional Research, 35: 67-82. Pradhan, R. P. (2009). “The FDI-led- growth hypothesis in ASEAN-5 countries: Evidence from cointegrated panel analysis”. International Journal of Business and Management, 4(12): 153-164. Ranđelović, P. M, Milić, J. V. & Kostadinović, I. (2017). “Market size as a determinant of the foreign direct investment in flows in the Western Balkans countries”. Facta Universitatis, Series: Economics and Organization, 14(2): 93 –104. Reichert, U.N. & Weinhold. D. (2001). “Causality Tests for Cross-Country Panels: New Look at FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(2): 153-171. Sims, C. (1980). “Macroeconomics and reality”. Econometrica, 48: 1-49. Sunde, T. (2017). “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth: ADRL and Causality Analysis for South Africa”. Research in International Business and Finance, 41: 434-444. Şahbaz, A. (2014). “SABİT SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ”. Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(1): 1-12. Tarı, R. (2005). Ekonometri. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul. Topallı, N. (2016). “DOĞRUDAN SERMAYE YATIRIMLARI, TİCARİ DIŞA AÇIKLIK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: TÜRKİYE VE BRICS ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ”. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17 (1): 83-95. Villaverde, J. & Maza, A. (2012). “Foreign direct investment in Spain: Regional distribution and determinants”. International Business Review, 21(4): 722-733. Yılmaz, Ö. & Akıncı, M. (2011). “İktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler bilançosu arasındaki ilişki:Türkiye örneği”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15 (2): 363-377. Yorulmaz, Ö., Yakut, S.G. & Gacar, B.K. (2018). “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımları Etkileyen Faktörlerin Çok Değişkenli İstatistiksel Yöntemler İle İncelenmesi”. Uluslar arası İnsan Çalışmaları Dergisi, 1(2): 157-171.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Eylül 2020 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 2 Eylül 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 3 |