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Relationship Between Export, Import and Economic Growth in Turkey: Time Varying Causality Analysis Abstract

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 941 - 952, 31.05.2021

Selim Demez Oktay Kızılkaya İdris Turan

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.687027

Öz

Import and export are the main determinants of the growth rates of an economy. For this reason, there are many theoretical and empirical studies about the existence of the relationship in this literature. But there is no consensus on the direction of the relation. In this study, the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth is investigated using quarterly data from the period 1971-2014 in Turkey. The relationship between the variables is analyzed with the bootstrap causality test proposed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012) and time-varying causality test under the assumption that the relationship between the variables changed over time.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export Import Economic Growth Time-Varying Causality Test

Kaynakça

  • AĞAYEV, S. (2011). “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri”. Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt. 11, No. 2: 241-254.
  • AWOKUSE, T. O. (2007). “Causality between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies”. Economics Letters, Cilt. 94, No. 3: 389-395.
  • BALASSA, B. (1978). “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”. Journal of Development Economics, Cilt. 5, No. 2: 181-189.
  • BHAGWATİ, J. N. (1988). “Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence”. The World Bank Research Observer, 27-57.
  • EE, C. Y. (2016). “Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries”. Procedia Economics and Finance, Cilt. 35: 232-240.
  • FEDER, G. (1983). “On Exports and Economic Growth”. Journal of Development Economics, Cilt. 12, No.1-2: 59-73.
  • FURUOKA, F. (2007). “Econometric Analysis of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence for BIMP-EAGA Countries”. Philippine Journal of Development, Cilt. 34, No. 2: 25-42.
  • GERNİ, C., EMSEN, Ö. SELÇUK, D. M. K. (2008). “İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980-2006 Türkiye Deneyimi”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Cilt. 2: 20-22.
  • GÖKMENOĞLU, K. K. SEHNAZ, Z. TASPINAR, N. (2015). “The Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Costa Rica”. Procedia Economics and Finance, Cilt. 25: 471-477.
  • GRANGER, C. WJ. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 424-438.
  • GROSSMAN, G. M. HELPMAN, E. (1991). “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth”. European Economic Review, Cilt. 35, No. 2-3: 517-526.
  • GÜL, E. KAMACI, A. (2012). “Dış Ticaretin Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Panel Veri Analizi”. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt. 4, No. 3.
  • HACKER, R. S. HATEMI-J, A. (2006). “Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”. Applied Economics, Cilt. 38, No. 13: 1489-1500.
  • HACKER, R. S. HATEMI-J, A. (2012). “A Bootstrap Test for Causality with Endogenous Lag Length Choice: Theory and Application in Finance”. Journal of Economic Studies, Cilt. 39, No. 2: 144-160.
  • HATEMI-J, A. (2003). “A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order in Stable and Unstable VAR Models”. Applied Economics Letters, Cilt. 10, No. 3: 135-137.
  • HATEMI-J, A. (2008). “Tests for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration”. Empirical Economics, Cilt. 35, No. 3: 497-505.
  • HATEMI-J, A. (2012). “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”. Empirical Economics, Cilt. 43, No. 1: 447-456.
  • KOÇYİĞİT, A. BAYAT, T. KAYHAN, S. ŞENTÜRK, M. (2015). “Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach”. Journal of Asian Development Studies, Cilt. 3, No. 4: 117-129.
  • KONSTANTAKOPOULOU, I. (2016). “New Evidence on the Export-led-growth Hypothesis in the Southern Euro-zone Countries (1960-2014)”. Economics Bulletin, Cilt. 36, No. 1: 429-439.
  • KRUEGER, A. O. (1990). “Asian Trade and Growth Lessons”. The American Economic Review, Cilt. 80, No. 2: 108-112.
  • HELPMAN, E. KRUGMAN, P. R. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy, MIT Press.
  • KUNST, R. M. MARIN, D. (1989). “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis”. The Review of Economics and Statistics: 699-703.
  • LAWRENCE, R. Z.; WEINSTEIN, D. E. (2001). “Trade and Growth: Import-led or Export-led? Evidence from Japan and Korea”. Rethinking the East Asian Miracle: 379-408.
  • LIM, S. Y. H., CHONG, M. (2013). “Nonlinearity in ASEAN-5 Export-led Growth Model: Empirical Evidence from Nonparametric Approach”. Economic Modelling, Cilt. 32: 136-145.
  • MARIN, D. (1992). “Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?”. The Review of Economics and Statistics: 678-688.
  • PISTORESI, B. RINALDI, A. (2012). “Exports, Imports and Growth: New Evidence on Italy: 1863–2004”. Explorations in Economic History, Cilt. 49, No. 2: 241-254.
  • SABOGAL, J. S. HATEMI-J, A. CAYÓN-FALLON, E. (2016). “A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis with Regard to the Exchange Rates and the Yield to Maturity in Colombia”. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, Cilt. 13: 321-329.
  • SAĞLAM, Y. EGELİ, H. A. (2015). “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi: Türkiye Örneği”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt. 17, No. 4: 517-530.
  • SANDALCILAR, A. R. (2012). “BRIC Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt. 17, No. 1.
  • TANG, C. F. (2013). “A Revisitation of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia Using the Leveraged Bootstrap Simulation and Rolling Causality Techniques”. Journal of Applied Statistics, Cilt. 40, No. 11: 2332-2340.
  • TANG, C. F. LAI, Y. W. ÖZTURK, İ. (2015). “How Stable is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons”. Economic Modelling, Cilt. 44: 229-235.
  • VERNON, R. (1992). “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle”. In International Economic Policies and Their Theoretical Foundations (Second Edition): 415-435.
  • YAPRAKLI, S. (2007). “İhracat ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”. Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, Cilt. 34, No. 1.
  • YILDIZ, E. B.; BERBER, M. (2011). “İthalata Dayalı Büyüme: 1989–2007 Türkiye Örneği”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt. 25.
  • YILMAZER, M. (2010). “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Deneme”. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt. 8, No. 1: 241-260.
  • YILANCI, V. BOZOKLU, Ş. (2014). “Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”. Ege Academic Review, Cilt. 14, No. 2.

Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 941 - 952, 31.05.2021

Selim Demez Oktay Kızılkaya İdris Turan

https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.687027

Öz

İthalat ve ihracat bir ekonominin büyüme oranlarının temel belirleyicilerindendir. Bu nedenle bu konu hakkında literatürde ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koyan birçok teorik ve ampirik çalışma yer almaktadır. Fakat ilişkinin yönü konusunda bir fikir birliği söz konusu değildir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de ihracat, ithalat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi 1998Ç2-2017Ç4 dönemi çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap nedensellik analizi ve değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin zamana bağlı olarak değişeceği varsayımı altında zamanla değişen nedensellik analizi ile incelenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat İthalat Büyüme Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

  • AĞAYEV, S. (2011). “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri”. Ege Akademik Bakış, Cilt. 11, No. 2: 241-254.
  • AWOKUSE, T. O. (2007). “Causality between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies”. Economics Letters, Cilt. 94, No. 3: 389-395.
  • BALASSA, B. (1978). “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”. Journal of Development Economics, Cilt. 5, No. 2: 181-189.
  • BHAGWATİ, J. N. (1988). “Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence”. The World Bank Research Observer, 27-57.
  • EE, C. Y. (2016). “Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries”. Procedia Economics and Finance, Cilt. 35: 232-240.
  • FEDER, G. (1983). “On Exports and Economic Growth”. Journal of Development Economics, Cilt. 12, No.1-2: 59-73.
  • FURUOKA, F. (2007). “Econometric Analysis of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence for BIMP-EAGA Countries”. Philippine Journal of Development, Cilt. 34, No. 2: 25-42.
  • GERNİ, C., EMSEN, Ö. SELÇUK, D. M. K. (2008). “İthalata Dayalı İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1980-2006 Türkiye Deneyimi”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Cilt. 2: 20-22.
  • GÖKMENOĞLU, K. K. SEHNAZ, Z. TASPINAR, N. (2015). “The Export-led Growth: A Case Study of Costa Rica”. Procedia Economics and Finance, Cilt. 25: 471-477.
  • GRANGER, C. WJ. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 424-438.
  • GROSSMAN, G. M. HELPMAN, E. (1991). “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth”. European Economic Review, Cilt. 35, No. 2-3: 517-526.
  • GÜL, E. KAMACI, A. (2012). “Dış Ticaretin Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Panel Veri Analizi”. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt. 4, No. 3.
  • HACKER, R. S. HATEMI-J, A. (2006). “Tests for Causality between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application”. Applied Economics, Cilt. 38, No. 13: 1489-1500.
  • HACKER, R. S. HATEMI-J, A. (2012). “A Bootstrap Test for Causality with Endogenous Lag Length Choice: Theory and Application in Finance”. Journal of Economic Studies, Cilt. 39, No. 2: 144-160.
  • HATEMI-J, A. (2003). “A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order in Stable and Unstable VAR Models”. Applied Economics Letters, Cilt. 10, No. 3: 135-137.
  • HATEMI-J, A. (2008). “Tests for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration”. Empirical Economics, Cilt. 35, No. 3: 497-505.
  • HATEMI-J, A. (2012). “Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application”. Empirical Economics, Cilt. 43, No. 1: 447-456.
  • KOÇYİĞİT, A. BAYAT, T. KAYHAN, S. ŞENTÜRK, M. (2015). “Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach”. Journal of Asian Development Studies, Cilt. 3, No. 4: 117-129.
  • KONSTANTAKOPOULOU, I. (2016). “New Evidence on the Export-led-growth Hypothesis in the Southern Euro-zone Countries (1960-2014)”. Economics Bulletin, Cilt. 36, No. 1: 429-439.
  • KRUEGER, A. O. (1990). “Asian Trade and Growth Lessons”. The American Economic Review, Cilt. 80, No. 2: 108-112.
  • HELPMAN, E. KRUGMAN, P. R. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy, MIT Press.
  • KUNST, R. M. MARIN, D. (1989). “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis”. The Review of Economics and Statistics: 699-703.
  • LAWRENCE, R. Z.; WEINSTEIN, D. E. (2001). “Trade and Growth: Import-led or Export-led? Evidence from Japan and Korea”. Rethinking the East Asian Miracle: 379-408.
  • LIM, S. Y. H., CHONG, M. (2013). “Nonlinearity in ASEAN-5 Export-led Growth Model: Empirical Evidence from Nonparametric Approach”. Economic Modelling, Cilt. 32: 136-145.
  • MARIN, D. (1992). “Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?”. The Review of Economics and Statistics: 678-688.
  • PISTORESI, B. RINALDI, A. (2012). “Exports, Imports and Growth: New Evidence on Italy: 1863–2004”. Explorations in Economic History, Cilt. 49, No. 2: 241-254.
  • SABOGAL, J. S. HATEMI-J, A. CAYÓN-FALLON, E. (2016). “A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis with Regard to the Exchange Rates and the Yield to Maturity in Colombia”. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, Cilt. 13: 321-329.
  • SAĞLAM, Y. EGELİ, H. A. (2015). “İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi: Türkiye Örneği”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt. 17, No. 4: 517-530.
  • SANDALCILAR, A. R. (2012). “BRIC Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt. 17, No. 1.
  • TANG, C. F. (2013). “A Revisitation of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia Using the Leveraged Bootstrap Simulation and Rolling Causality Techniques”. Journal of Applied Statistics, Cilt. 40, No. 11: 2332-2340.
  • TANG, C. F. LAI, Y. W. ÖZTURK, İ. (2015). “How Stable is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons”. Economic Modelling, Cilt. 44: 229-235.
  • VERNON, R. (1992). “International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle”. In International Economic Policies and Their Theoretical Foundations (Second Edition): 415-435.
  • YAPRAKLI, S. (2007). “İhracat ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”. Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, Cilt. 34, No. 1.
  • YILDIZ, E. B.; BERBER, M. (2011). “İthalata Dayalı Büyüme: 1989–2007 Türkiye Örneği”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt. 25.
  • YILMAZER, M. (2010). “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Deneme”. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi SBE, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt. 8, No. 1: 241-260.
  • YILANCI, V. BOZOKLU, Ş. (2014). “Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi”. Ege Academic Review, Cilt. 14, No. 2.
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Selim Demez 0000-0001-6885-0499

Oktay Kızılkaya 0000-0002-3412-5616

İdris Turan 0000-0002-8184-0110

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Mayıs 2021
Kabul Tarihi 19 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Demez, S., Kızılkaya, O., & Turan, İ. (2021). Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Nedensellik Analizi. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 5(2), 941-952. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.687027
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