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Caydırıcılık Teorisi Bağlamında Çin’in Kuzey Kore Nükleer Politikalarına Bakışı

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 34, 260 - 282, 20.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.33692/avrasyad.1200578

Öz

Son 30 yılda, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer sorunu, Kuzeydoğu Asya'daki güvenlik, kalkınma ve istikrara yönelik en önemli ve doğrudan tehditlerden birini oluşturmuştur. Üçlü ve altılı görüşmeler, yaptırımlar, diplomatik çabalar ve daha yakın tarihli Singapur ve Hanoi Zirveleri dahil olmak üzere uluslararası toplumun çabaları, şimdiye kadar herhangi somut bir sonuç üretememiştir. Kuzey Kore'nin temel amacı nükleer programını geliştirmek ve açıkça nükleer silah üretmek olmuştur. Uluslararası toplum, Çin'in Kuzey Kore'ye baskı yapma ve nükleer sorunu kolayca çözme yeteneğine aşırı derecede güvenmiştir. Çin, Kuzey Kore'yi nükleer programının geliştirilmesinden vazgeçirmeye çalışırken, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer bir güç olmasına da yardımcı olmuştur. Bu makale, Çin'in caydırıcılık stratejisinin bir müttefik olarak Kuzey Kore üzerinde güvenilir olup olmadığını incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çin caydırıcılık stratejisi kapsamında birinci ve ikinci vuruşları gerçekleştirmeme ilkesine bağlı kalmaktadır. Rakipleri bu garantiyi müttefiklerine sağlarken, Çin Kuzey Kore'ye herhangi bir nükleer garanti sunmamıştır. ABD-Çin rekabeti bağlamında Çin, Tayvan, Güney Kore ve Güney Çin Denizi'ndeki çıkarlarından endişe duymaktadır. Çin için Kuzey Kore nükleer krizi hiçbir zaman birinci öncelik olmamıştır. İki ülke arasındaki ittifak ilişkisindeki güven eksikliği, Çin'in Kuzey Kore'yi nükleer silahlardan arındırma sürecini tamamlamaya ikna etmesini imkânsız hale getirmiştir. Bu nedenle, Çin'in caydırıcı gücü sonuçsuz kalmıştır. Bu güven eksikliği, Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer programını geliştirme motivasyonunu daha net olarak açıklamaktadır.

Kaynakça

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China's Perspective on North Korean Nuclear Policies in The Context of Deterrence Theory

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 34, 260 - 282, 20.03.2023
https://doi.org/10.33692/avrasyad.1200578

Öz

Over the past 30 years, North Korea’s nuclear problem has posed one of the most significant and direct threats to the security, development, and stability in Northeast Asia. The efforts of the international community, including trilateral and six-party talks, sanctions, diplomatic efforts, and the more recent Singapore and Hanoi Summits, have so far failed to produce any tangible outcomes. The main objective of North Korea is to develop its nuclear program and openly produce nuclear weapons. The international community has placed undue reliance on China's ability to put pressure on North Korea and easily resolve the nuclear issue. To this end, while trying to get North Korea to forgo the development of its nuclear program, China also helped North Korea become a nuclear power. This article seeks to examine whether China’s deterrence strategy is reliable for North Korea. Under the Chinese deterrence strategy, China adheres to the principle of not launching the first and second strikes. While its rivals have provided it to its allies, China has not offered any nuclear guarantees to North Korea. In the context of the US-China rivalry, China is concerned about its interests in Taiwan, South Korea, and the South China Sea. For China, the North Korea nuclear crisis has never been a top priority. The lack of credibility in the alliance relationship between the two countries has made it impossible for China to convince North Korea to complete its denuclearization. Therefore, China's deterrent power has been inconclusive. This lack of credibility more clearly explains North Korea's motivation to develop its nuclear program.

Kaynakça

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  • Perlez, J. 2018.How Did Kim Jong-un Get to Singapore? With Some Help From China, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/world/asia/trump-kim-summit-plane.html (Erişim tarihi:18.03.2022)
  • Phil, J. 2017. Chinese Media's Shameless and Impudent Acts, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1530446519-216457115/chinese-medias-shameless-and-impudent-acts/ (Erişim tarihi:25.04.2022)
  • Pritchard, C. 2007.Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb. Brookings Institution.
  • Reilly, J. 2014.” The Curious Case of China’s Aid to North Korea”. Asian Survey. 54(6): 1158-1183.
  • Ross, R. 2022. “China Looks at the Korean Peninsula: The ‘Two Transitions’”, Survival, 63(6):129-158.
  • Huth, P. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Huth, P. K. ve Russett, B. 1988. “Deterrence Failure and Crisis Escalation”.International Studies Quarterly.32(29):29-45.
  • Huth, P. ve Russett B. 1990. “Testing Deterrence Theory: Rigor Makes a Difference”. World Politics. 42:466–501.
  • Sang-Hun, C. 2017. “North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile a Day Before U.S.-China Summit,” https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/04/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missile-test-xi-trump.html (Erişim tarihi:25.04.2022)
  • Schelling, T. C. 1966. The Diplomacy of Violence. New Haven: Yale University Press. 1-34.
  • Schelling, T. C. 1980. The Strategy of Conflict. Harvard University Press. Cambridge.
  • Sethi, M. 2019. “Proliferation and the Korean Peninsula: the Making of North Korea’s ‘Mature’ Nuclear Enterprise”. Major Power and the Korean Peninsula: Politics, Policies and Perspectives. (Ed. T. Basu). New Delhi: KW Publishers.43-64.
  • Shen, Z. ve Yafeng, X. 2018. A Misunderstood Friendship: Mao Zedong, Kim Il-sung, and Sino-North Korean Relations 1949-1976. Columbia University Press.
  • Son, H. 2021. North Korean Traders Smuggle Coal to Power-Short China. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/china-coal-10112021212309.html (Erişim tarihi:25.06.2022).
  • The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. 2015. “Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China”. http://lawinfochina.com/display.aspx?id=19663&lib=law(Erişim tarihi:24.08.2022)
  • The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. 2019. “China’s National Defense in the New Era”, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/specials/whitepaperonnationaldefenseinnewera.pdf (Erişim tarihi:24.08.2022)
  • UN Security Council. 2017. S/RES/2371 (2017), https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/s/res/2371-%282017%29, (Erişim Tarihi: 20.08.2022)
  • Volpe, T. 2017. “The Unraveling of North Korea’s Proliferation Blackmail Strategy” North Korea and Nuclear Weapons: Entering the New Era of Deterrence (Ed. S.C. Kim ve M. D. Cohen). Washington. DC: Georgetown University Press.73-88.
  • Wang, J. 2019. “Cháoměi fēnghuì: Dònglì, zhàng'ài yǔ chūlù” (“Kuzey Kore-ABD Zirvesi: İtici Güçler, Engeller ve Çıkış Yolları”). Yàtài ānquán yǔ hǎiyáng yánjiū (Asya-Pasifik Güvenliği ve Okyanus Araştırmaları).15-25.
  • Wang, X. 2019. “Wén zài yín zhèngfǔ de “liǎng zhóu wàijiāo” píngxī” (“Moon Jae-in Yönetiminin "İki Eksenli Diplomasisinin" Bir Analizi”). “Dāngdài Hánguó (Çağdaş Kore):15-23.
  • Wang, J. ve Lin, Z. 1992. “Chinese Perceptions in the Post-Cold War Era”, Asian Survey, 32(10):902-917.
  • White Paper 2019. “China's National Defense in the New Era”. http://eu.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/zywj/bps/201907/t20190724_8301668.htm (Erişim tarihi: 15.09.2022).
  • Wohlstetter, A. 1959. “The Delicate Balance of Terror”. Foreign Affairs. 37(2):211–234.
  • Wu, C. 2015. “Hé ānquán fēnghuì, quánqiú hé zhìxù jiànshè yǔ zhōngguó juésè” (“Nükleer Güvenlik Zirvesi, Küresel Nükleer Düzen İnşası ve Çin'in Rolü”). International Security Research.33(2):56-57.
  • Yang, W. 2019. “Cháo hé biànjú zhōng dì měiguó yīnsù” (“Kuzey Kore'nin nükleer değişiminde Amerikan faktörü”). Guójì Guānxì (Uluslararası İlişkiler). 5:16-23.
  • Zagare, F. C. 2004. “Reconciling Rationality with Deterrence: A Re-examination of the Logical Foundations of Deterrence Theory”. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 16(2):107-141.
  • Zhang, J. 2020. “Dōngběi yà “hé wēishè xiàoyìng ruòhuà” jí qí yìngduì sīkǎo” (“Kuzeydoğu Asya'nın "Nükleer Caydırıcılık Etkisinin Zayıflaması" ve Karşı Tedbirleri”). Yàtài ānquán yǔ hǎiyáng yánjiū (Asya Pasifik Güvenlik ve Okyanus Çalışmaları).3:74-90.
  • Zhang, H. 2021. “Wén zài yín zhèngfǔ de duìwài zhèngcè: Jīyù yǔ” tiǎozhàn” (“Moon Jae-in Yönetiminin Dış Politikası: Fırsatlar ve Zorluklar”), Dongbei Ya Luntan (Kuzeydoğu Asya Forumu).2:40-53.
  • Zheng, J. 2021. “Hánguó ānquán guān zhèngzài fāshēng biànhuà” (Güney Kore'nin güvenlik konsepti değişiyor). https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/41mponaQk11 (Erişim tarihi:25.06.2022)
  • Zhou P. ve Wen E. 2004. Developing the Theory of Strategic Deterrence with Chinese Characteristics. China Military Science, No. 3.
  • Zhu F. 2017. “China’s North Korean Liability”, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2017-07-11/chinas-north-korean-liability (Erişim tarihi:25.06.2022)
Toplam 68 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Özlem Zerrin Keyvan 0000-0003-2072-3655

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 15 Mart 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Mart 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 7 Kasım 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 34

Kaynak Göster

APA Keyvan, Ö. Z. (2023). Caydırıcılık Teorisi Bağlamında Çin’in Kuzey Kore Nükleer Politikalarına Bakışı. Avrasya Uluslararası Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(34), 260-282. https://doi.org/10.33692/avrasyad.1200578

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