Öz
The fact that production can operate at full employment capacity and the country's ability to use its resources with full efficiency are among the most important macroeconomic indicators. The full employment level, especially in developing countries, shows no idle resources. For developed countries, keeping unemployment at a natural level is important in terms of ensuring sustainable economic growth. The concept of convergence attracts researchers' attention as a concept frequently used in different fields in the economics literature. The frequently discussed income convergence; is defined as the potential of developing countries to have higher growth rates than developed countries and reach the income levels of developed countries after a while. In the study, a panel data set covering the unemployment rates of the G-20 member countries between the years 1991-2022 was used. Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2014) Fourier panel unit root test was applied to determine the unemployment convergence of G-20 countries. The unit root test used is a current and powerful method in that it allows both cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks. According to the test results, the heterogeneous alternative hypothesis, which states that some of the G-20 countries show convergence behavior, could not be rejected. In addition, according to the results of the F test, which tests the significance of smooth transitions, the Fourier terms of all countries except China, South Korea, and Argentina were found to be significant. According to the results of the study, it was determined that the unemployment rates of Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa showed convergence behavior compared to the G-20 average.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Unemployment convergence Fourier panel unit root test G-20 countries
Kaynakça
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., & Wu, T. (2014). Revisiting purchasing power parity in African countries: panel stationary test with sharp and smooth breaks. Applied Financial Economics, 24 (22), 1429-1438.
- Baktemur, F. İ., & Özmen, M. (2017). Gelişmiş AB ülkeleri için işsizlik yakınsamasının mekansal ekonometrik analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (626), 33-42.
- Bayer, C., & Juessen, F. (2007). Convergence in West German regional unemployment rates. German Economic Review, 8(4), 510-535.
- Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10 (2), 97-108.
- Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1996). Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis. Journal of econometrics, 71 (1-2), 161-173.
- Beyer, R. C., & Stemmer, M. A. (2016). Polarization or convergence? An analysis of regional unemployment disparities in Europe over time. Economic Modelling, 55, 373-381.
- Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 15-78.
- Blanchard, O. J., Katz, Lawrence. F. (1992). Regional evolutions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1-61.
- Bratu, M. (2014). The convergence of unemployment rate in the European Union. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiş, Arad-Seria Ştiinţe Economice, 24 (3), 62-69.
- Carlino, G. A., & Mills, L. O. (1993). Are US regional incomes converging?: A time series analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (2), 335-346.
- Carrera, D. R., & Rodríguez, G. (2009). Have European unemployment rates converged? Banco Central de Reserva del Perú Working Papers, 7.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., del Barrio-Castro, T., & Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita. The Econometrics Journal, 159-175.
- Ceylan, R. (2010). Yakınsama hipotezi: teorik tartışmalar. Sosyoekonomi, 11 (11), 47-60.
- Cuestas, J. C., Monfort, M., & Ordóñez, J. (2015). Unemployment convergence in central and eastern European countries: Driving forces and cluster behavior. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51 (1), 259-273.
- Corakci, A., Omay, T., & Hasanov, M. (2022). Hysteresis and stochastic convergence in Eurozone unemployment rates: evidence from panel unit roots with smooth breaks and asymmetric dynamics. Oeconomia Copernicana, 13 (1), 11-54.
- Demir, Y. (2021). Balkan ülkelerine ait işsizliğin mekânsal panel ekonometri yaklaşımı ile analizi. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10 (19), 26-35.
- Evans, P., & Karras, G. (1996). Convergence revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37 (2), 249-265.
- Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy the American economic review. New York, 58 (1), 1-17.
- Gomes, F. A. R., & da Silva, C. G. (2009). Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49 (2), 308-322.
- Güriş, B., Yurttagüler, İ. M., & Tiraşoğlu, M. (2017). Unemployment convergence analysis for Nordic countries: Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 24 (1), 45-56.
- Hadizadeh, A. (2021). Analyzing unemployment rates convergence across the US States: New evidence using quantile unit root test. Iranian Economic Review, 25 (3), 453-464.
- Kónya, L. (2020). Did the unemployment rates converge in the EU? Empirical Economics, 59, 627-657.
- Krištić, I. R., Dumančić, L. R., & Arčabić, V. (2019). Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates. Economic Modelling, 76, 192-198.
- Li, Q., & Papell, D. (1999). Convergence of international output time series evidence for 16 OECD countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 8 (3), 267-280.
- Nahar, S., & Inder, B. (2002). Testing convergence in economic growth for OECD countries. Applied Economics, 34 (16), 2011-2022.
- Nyong, M. O. (2013). Unemployment convergence among the 36 states in Nigeria. In Finance and Economics Conference (pp. 1-37).
- Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation, and optimal unemployment over time. Economica, 254-281.
- Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65-94.
- Yiğiteli, N. (2022). Unemployment rate convergence in the case of Turkey: A Regional analysis within the scope of dollarization and real wage. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 7 (2), 239-263.
Öz
Üretimin tam istihdam kapasite düzeyinde çalışabilmesi, ülkenin kaynaklarını tam verimlilikle kullanabilmesi en önemli makroekonomik göstergelerin başında gelmektedir. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin nezdinde tam istihdam düzeyi hiçbir kaynağın âtıl durumda olmadığını göstermektedir. Gelişmiş ülkeler için ise işsizliğin doğal düzeyde tutulması sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması açısından önemlidir. Yakınsama kavramı iktisat literatüründe farklı alanlarda sıklıkla kullanılan bir kavram olarak araştırmacıların ilgisini çekmektedir. Sıkça tartışılan gelir yakınsaması; gelişmekte olan ülkelerin gelişmiş ülkelere kıyasla daha yüksek büyüme oranlarına sahip olduğu ve bir süre sonra gelişmiş ülkelerin gelir seviyelerine ulaşma potansiyeli olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışmada G-20 üye ülkelerin 1991-2022 yılları arasındaki işsizlik oranlarını kapsayan panel veri seti kullanılmıştır. G-20 ülkelerinin işsizlik yakınsamasının tespit edilebilmesi için Bahmani-Oskooee vd. (2014) Fourier panel birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Kullanılan birim kök testi hem yatay kesit bağımlılığına hem de yapısal kırılmalara izin vermesi yönünden güncel ve güçlü bir yöntemdir. Test sonuçlarına göre G-20 ülkelerinin bazılarının yakınsama davranışı gösterdiğini ifade eden heterojen alternatif hipotez reddedilememiştir. Ayrıca yumuşak geçişlerin anlamlılığını sınayan F testi sonuçlarına göre Çin, Güney Kore, Arjantin hariç diğer tüm ülkelerin Fourier terimleri anlamlı bulunmuştur. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre Brezilya, Fransa, Almanya, Hindistan, İtalya, Japonya, Suudi Arabistan ve Güney Afrika’nın işsizlik oranları G-20 ortalamasına göre yakınsama davranışı gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
İşsizlik yakınsaması Fourier panel birim kök testi G-20 ülkeleri
Kaynakça
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., & Wu, T. (2014). Revisiting purchasing power parity in African countries: panel stationary test with sharp and smooth breaks. Applied Financial Economics, 24 (22), 1429-1438.
- Baktemur, F. İ., & Özmen, M. (2017). Gelişmiş AB ülkeleri için işsizlik yakınsamasının mekansal ekonometrik analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (626), 33-42.
- Bayer, C., & Juessen, F. (2007). Convergence in West German regional unemployment rates. German Economic Review, 8(4), 510-535.
- Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10 (2), 97-108.
- Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1996). Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis. Journal of econometrics, 71 (1-2), 161-173.
- Beyer, R. C., & Stemmer, M. A. (2016). Polarization or convergence? An analysis of regional unemployment disparities in Europe over time. Economic Modelling, 55, 373-381.
- Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 15-78.
- Blanchard, O. J., Katz, Lawrence. F. (1992). Regional evolutions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1-61.
- Bratu, M. (2014). The convergence of unemployment rate in the European Union. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiş, Arad-Seria Ştiinţe Economice, 24 (3), 62-69.
- Carlino, G. A., & Mills, L. O. (1993). Are US regional incomes converging?: A time series analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (2), 335-346.
- Carrera, D. R., & Rodríguez, G. (2009). Have European unemployment rates converged? Banco Central de Reserva del Perú Working Papers, 7.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., del Barrio-Castro, T., & Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the panels: an application to the GDP per capita. The Econometrics Journal, 159-175.
- Ceylan, R. (2010). Yakınsama hipotezi: teorik tartışmalar. Sosyoekonomi, 11 (11), 47-60.
- Cuestas, J. C., Monfort, M., & Ordóñez, J. (2015). Unemployment convergence in central and eastern European countries: Driving forces and cluster behavior. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51 (1), 259-273.
- Corakci, A., Omay, T., & Hasanov, M. (2022). Hysteresis and stochastic convergence in Eurozone unemployment rates: evidence from panel unit roots with smooth breaks and asymmetric dynamics. Oeconomia Copernicana, 13 (1), 11-54.
- Demir, Y. (2021). Balkan ülkelerine ait işsizliğin mekânsal panel ekonometri yaklaşımı ile analizi. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10 (19), 26-35.
- Evans, P., & Karras, G. (1996). Convergence revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37 (2), 249-265.
- Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy the American economic review. New York, 58 (1), 1-17.
- Gomes, F. A. R., & da Silva, C. G. (2009). Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 49 (2), 308-322.
- Güriş, B., Yurttagüler, İ. M., & Tiraşoğlu, M. (2017). Unemployment convergence analysis for Nordic countries: Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 24 (1), 45-56.
- Hadizadeh, A. (2021). Analyzing unemployment rates convergence across the US States: New evidence using quantile unit root test. Iranian Economic Review, 25 (3), 453-464.
- Kónya, L. (2020). Did the unemployment rates converge in the EU? Empirical Economics, 59, 627-657.
- Krištić, I. R., Dumančić, L. R., & Arčabić, V. (2019). Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates. Economic Modelling, 76, 192-198.
- Li, Q., & Papell, D. (1999). Convergence of international output time series evidence for 16 OECD countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 8 (3), 267-280.
- Nahar, S., & Inder, B. (2002). Testing convergence in economic growth for OECD countries. Applied Economics, 34 (16), 2011-2022.
- Nyong, M. O. (2013). Unemployment convergence among the 36 states in Nigeria. In Finance and Economics Conference (pp. 1-37).
- Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips curves, expectations of inflation, and optimal unemployment over time. Economica, 254-281.
- Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65-94.
- Yiğiteli, N. (2022). Unemployment rate convergence in the case of Turkey: A Regional analysis within the scope of dollarization and real wage. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 7 (2), 239-263.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonometri (Diğer) |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Aralık 2023 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 8 Ağustos 2023 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2023 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2 |
