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Türkiye'de Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Araştırılması

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 103 - 117, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1295409

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1987-2019 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Türkiye'de iktisadi büyüme ile petrol fiyatları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı araştırılmıştır. İlk olarak, değişkenlerin durağanlığı artıklarla genişletilmiş en küçük kareler (RALS) tabanlı ADF birim kök testi ile değerlendirilmiştir. İkinci olarak, fark durağan olan değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi araştırmak için RALS tabanlı eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ile petrol fiyatları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, serinin uzun vadede dengeye dönmediği ve finansal çalkantı sırasında yaşanan petrol fiyat şoklarının ekonomik büyümeyi etkileyebileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmed, M., and Azam, M. (2016). Causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth for high, middle and low income countries using frequency domain analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 653-678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.174.
  • Akinsola, M. O., and Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: Panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries. Energy Reports, 6, 1057-1066. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2020.04.023.
  • Al-mulali, U. (2010). The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway [MPRA Paper]. University Library of Munich, Germany. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/pramprapa/24447.htm.
  • Awunyo-Vitor, D., Samanhyia, S., and Addo Bonney, E. (2018). Do oil prices influence economic growth in Ghana? An empirical analysis. Cogent Economics and Finance, 6(1), 1496551. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1496551.
  • Benli̇, M., Altintaş, H., and Kaplan, M. (2019). Petrol fiyatlarının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 266-279. https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.480869.
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Filis, G., Eeckels, B., and Apostolakis, A. (2013). Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries. Tourism Management, 36, 331-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.10.012
  • Cuñado, J., and Pérez de Gracia, F. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy Economics, 25(2), 137-154.
  • Çoban, M. N. (2020). Ekonomik kompleksite ve insani gelişmişlik ilişkisi: e7 ülkeleri için bir analiz. Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(2), 467-479.
  • Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348.
  • Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517.
  • Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236.
  • Ftiti, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F., and Chouachi, S. (2016). Relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 32(1), 11-22. https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v32i1.9483.
  • Granger, C. W. J., and Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 313831). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.313831.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2013). Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth. in Chapters (p. 29-63). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/14429_1.html.
  • Hanabusa, K. (2009). Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan. Energy Policy, 37(5), 1953-1957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.007.
  • Han, A. (2022). E7 ülkelerinde yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin incelenmesi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 18 (3), 797-814. DOI: 10.17130/ijmeb.1015102.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1995). Rethinking the univariate approach to unit root testing: using covariates to increase power. Econometric Theory, 11(5), 1148-1171. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600009993.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J., and Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors. Içinde R. C. Sickles and W. C. Horrace (Ed.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (ss. 315-342). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_10.
  • Im, K. S., and Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233.
  • Iwayemi, A., and Fowowe, B. (2011). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Energy Policy, 39(2), 603-612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.033.
  • Jarrett, U., Mohaddes, K., and Mohtadi, H. (2019). Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth. Energy Policy, 126, 131-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.068.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., and Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000281561.
  • Kamaci, A., and Göktaş, S. (2020). Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(22), 547-556. https://doi.org/10.47129/bartiniibf.797897.
  • Kırca, M., Canbay, Ş., and Pirali, K. (2020). Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent? Resources Policy, 69, 101838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101838.
  • Korhonen, I., and Ledyaeva, S. (2010). Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil. Energy Economics, 32(4), 848-856. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.11.005.
  • Kurihara, Y. (2015). Oil prices and economic growth in developed countries. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 6(11), 40-46.
  • Lardic, S., and Mignon, V. (2006). The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3910-3915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.09.019.
  • Lardic, S., and Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.010.
  • Lee, H., Lee, J., and Im, K. (2015). More powerful cointegration tests with non-normal errors. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19(4), 397-413. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2013-0060.
  • MacKinnon, J. (2010). Critical Values For Cointegration Tests (Working Paper Sy 1227). Economics Department, Queen's University. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/qedwpaper/1227.htm.
  • Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., and Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477.
  • Mork, K. A., Olsen, O., and Mysen, H. T. (1994). Macroeconomic responses to oil price increases and decreases in seven OECD countries. The Energy Journal, Volume15(Number 4), 19-36.
  • Nusair, S. A. (2016). The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis. Energy Policy, 91, 256-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.013.
  • Ozturk, M. (2020). Küreselleşme sürecinde ekonomik büyümenin işsizlik türleri üzerindeki etkisi. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 45-68.
  • Öksüzler, O., and İpek, E. (2011). Dünya petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimin büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. http://dspace.balikesir.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/20.500.12462/4699.
  • Özsağır, A., Erkan, B., Mehmet, Ş., and Kara, O. (2011). Ham petrol fiyatlarindaki volatilitenin gayri safi yurtiçi hasila büyümesi üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi.
  • Rasche, R. H., and Tatom, J. A. (1977). Energy resources and potential GNP. Review, 59(Jun), 10-24.
  • Sarwar, S., Chen, W., and Waheed, R. (2017). Electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 9-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.063.
  • Stern, D. I. (2010). The Role of Energy in Economic Growth (Sy 0310; CCEP Working Papers). Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/ccepwp/0310.html.
  • Timilsina, G. R. (2015). Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis. Energy Economics, 49, 669-675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.005.
  • Van Eyden, R., Difeto, M., Gupta, R., and Wohar, M. E. (2019). Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century's data. Applied Energy, 233-234, 612-621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.10.049.
  • Yardimcioğlu, F., and Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 19(19). https://doi.org/10.17233/se.64269.
  • Yılancı, V. (2017). Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi: Fourier yaklaşımı. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 27, 51-57.
  • Yılmaz, F. (2022). Ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret bağıntısı: Türkiye örneği. Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(1), 21-32.
  • Zulfigarov, F., and Neuenkirch, M. (2020). The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan. Economic Systems, 44(4), 100814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100814.

Exploring the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 103 - 117, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1295409

Öz

This study investigates the existence of a long-run relationship between economic growth and oil prices in Türkiye, using annual data for the period 1987-2019. First, the stationarity of the variables is evaluated using the Residual Augmented Least Squares (RALS) based ADF unit root test. Second, the RALS-based cointegration test is used to investigate the long-run relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between economic growth and oil prices in Türkiye. As a result, it is concluded that the series does not return to equilibrium in the long run and oil price shocks during the financial turmoil may affect economic growth.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmed, M., and Azam, M. (2016). Causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth for high, middle and low income countries using frequency domain analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 653-678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.174.
  • Akinsola, M. O., and Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: Panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries. Energy Reports, 6, 1057-1066. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2020.04.023.
  • Al-mulali, U. (2010). The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway [MPRA Paper]. University Library of Munich, Germany. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/pramprapa/24447.htm.
  • Awunyo-Vitor, D., Samanhyia, S., and Addo Bonney, E. (2018). Do oil prices influence economic growth in Ghana? An empirical analysis. Cogent Economics and Finance, 6(1), 1496551. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1496551.
  • Benli̇, M., Altintaş, H., and Kaplan, M. (2019). Petrol fiyatlarının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 266-279. https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.480869.
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Filis, G., Eeckels, B., and Apostolakis, A. (2013). Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries. Tourism Management, 36, 331-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.10.012
  • Cuñado, J., and Pérez de Gracia, F. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy Economics, 25(2), 137-154.
  • Çoban, M. N. (2020). Ekonomik kompleksite ve insani gelişmişlik ilişkisi: e7 ülkeleri için bir analiz. Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(2), 467-479.
  • Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348.
  • Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517.
  • Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236.
  • Ftiti, Z., Guesmi, K., Teulon, F., and Chouachi, S. (2016). Relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth in selected OPEC countries. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 32(1), 11-22. https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v32i1.9483.
  • Granger, C. W. J., and Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 313831). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.313831.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (2013). Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth. in Chapters (p. 29-63). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/14429_1.html.
  • Hanabusa, K. (2009). Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan. Energy Policy, 37(5), 1953-1957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.007.
  • Han, A. (2022). E7 ülkelerinde yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin incelenmesi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 18 (3), 797-814. DOI: 10.17130/ijmeb.1015102.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1995). Rethinking the univariate approach to unit root testing: using covariates to increase power. Econometric Theory, 11(5), 1148-1171. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600009993.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J., and Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors. Içinde R. C. Sickles and W. C. Horrace (Ed.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (ss. 315-342). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_10.
  • Im, K. S., and Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233.
  • Iwayemi, A., and Fowowe, B. (2011). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Energy Policy, 39(2), 603-612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.033.
  • Jarrett, U., Mohaddes, K., and Mohtadi, H. (2019). Oil price volatility, financial institutions and economic growth. Energy Policy, 126, 131-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.068.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., and Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000281561.
  • Kamaci, A., and Göktaş, S. (2020). Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(22), 547-556. https://doi.org/10.47129/bartiniibf.797897.
  • Kırca, M., Canbay, Ş., and Pirali, K. (2020). Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent? Resources Policy, 69, 101838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101838.
  • Korhonen, I., and Ledyaeva, S. (2010). Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil. Energy Economics, 32(4), 848-856. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.11.005.
  • Kurihara, Y. (2015). Oil prices and economic growth in developed countries. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 6(11), 40-46.
  • Lardic, S., and Mignon, V. (2006). The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3910-3915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.09.019.
  • Lardic, S., and Mignon, V. (2008). Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach. Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.010.
  • Lee, H., Lee, J., and Im, K. (2015). More powerful cointegration tests with non-normal errors. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19(4), 397-413. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2013-0060.
  • MacKinnon, J. (2010). Critical Values For Cointegration Tests (Working Paper Sy 1227). Economics Department, Queen's University. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/qedwpaper/1227.htm.
  • Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., and Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477.
  • Mork, K. A., Olsen, O., and Mysen, H. T. (1994). Macroeconomic responses to oil price increases and decreases in seven OECD countries. The Energy Journal, Volume15(Number 4), 19-36.
  • Nusair, S. A. (2016). The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis. Energy Policy, 91, 256-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.013.
  • Ozturk, M. (2020). Küreselleşme sürecinde ekonomik büyümenin işsizlik türleri üzerindeki etkisi. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 45-68.
  • Öksüzler, O., and İpek, E. (2011). Dünya petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimin büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. http://dspace.balikesir.edu.tr/xmlui/handle/20.500.12462/4699.
  • Özsağır, A., Erkan, B., Mehmet, Ş., and Kara, O. (2011). Ham petrol fiyatlarindaki volatilitenin gayri safi yurtiçi hasila büyümesi üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi.
  • Rasche, R. H., and Tatom, J. A. (1977). Energy resources and potential GNP. Review, 59(Jun), 10-24.
  • Sarwar, S., Chen, W., and Waheed, R. (2017). Electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 9-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.063.
  • Stern, D. I. (2010). The Role of Energy in Economic Growth (Sy 0310; CCEP Working Papers). Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/ccepwp/0310.html.
  • Timilsina, G. R. (2015). Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis. Energy Economics, 49, 669-675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.005.
  • Van Eyden, R., Difeto, M., Gupta, R., and Wohar, M. E. (2019). Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century's data. Applied Energy, 233-234, 612-621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.10.049.
  • Yardimcioğlu, F., and Gülmez, A. (2013). OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 19(19). https://doi.org/10.17233/se.64269.
  • Yılancı, V. (2017). Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi: Fourier yaklaşımı. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 27, 51-57.
  • Yılmaz, F. (2022). Ekonomik büyüme ve dış ticaret bağıntısı: Türkiye örneği. Ahi Evran Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8(1), 21-32.
  • Zulfigarov, F., and Neuenkirch, M. (2020). The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan. Economic Systems, 44(4), 100814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100814.
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Abdulmecit Yıldırım 0000-0002-6228-6601

Gökhan Konat 0000-0002-0964-7893

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Aralık 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 10 Mayıs 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Yıldırım, A., & Konat, G. (2023). Exploring the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Economic Growth in Türkiye. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 103-117. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1295409


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