Psychological Effects on Determining Consumer Confidence Index: Relationship between Games of Chance
Öz
Measuring and analyzing consumer expectations in the economy is crucial to making the right economic decisions. If the expectations are interpreted correctly, the precaution to be taken will be effective. Expectations can also provide pioneering information for future undesirable economic situations. It is a very difficult task to estimate the leading indicators. Because the science of economics is a science related to society. The behavior of the people constituting the society is shaped by psychological factors. It is very difficult to monitor or measure the psychological factors in question. Confidence indices are important macro calculations that can provide information about social psychological state. The measurement of consumer expectations in Turkey, the Consumer Confidence Index (TGA) is an index used widely considered a leading indicator for economic events and to live. In this study, an indicator that could be a pioneer for TGE was tried to be determined. For this purpose, the relationship between TGE and the rate of playing legal chances regulated by the state was analyzed in order to reflect the psychological status of consumers. The results of the causality analysis, short- and long-term relationships with TG between games of chance to play amounts were detected in Turkey.
Anahtar Kelimeler
consumer confidence index games of chance leading indicators
Kaynakça
- Apinunmahakul, A., & Devlin, R. A. (2004). Charitable giving and charitable gambling: an empirical investigation. National Tax Journal, 67-88.
- Başarır, Ç., Bicil, İ. M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2019). The Relationship Between Selected Financial and Macroeconomic Variables with Consumer Confidence Index. Journal of Yaşar University, 14, 173-183.
- Çankaya, S., & Alp, E. A. (2019). Beklenti Endekslerinin Sanayi Üretimi Üzerine Etkisi. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (23), 225-236.
- Hatemi-j, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
- Hatemi-j, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
- Hollanders, D., & Vliegenthart, R. (2011). The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: The Dutch case. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32(3), 367-373.
- Jansen, W. J., & Nahuis, N. J. (2003). The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence. Economics Letters, 79(1), 89-98.
- Katona, G., (1968). “Consumer behavior: Theory and findings on expectations and aspirations”, The American Economic Review, Vol:58, No:2, 19-30.
- Matsusaka, J. G., & Sbordone, A. M. (1995). Consumer confidence and economic fluctuations. Economic Inquiry, 33(2), 296-318.
- Milli Piyango İdaresi 2018 Faaliyet Raporu
- Otto, M.W. (1999). “Consumer Sentiment and The Stock Market”, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics, Discussion Paper, November, Discussion Series No: 60.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Sadeghzadeh, K. (2018). Borsanın Psikolojik Faktörlere Duyarlılığı: Oynaklık Endeksi (Vıx) Ve Tüketici Güven Endeksi (Tge) İle Bıst 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişkiler. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(2), 238-253.
- Sağır, A., & Çabuk, S. (2010). Şans oyunlarının toplumun beklentileri üzerine etkisi: “Sakarya örneği”. Sakarya Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Dergisi, 1, 143-166.
- Uğur, A. (2015). Kamusal Finansman Açısından Devlet Piyango Kurumlarının Analizi: Özelleştirme Sürecinde Milli Piyango İdaresi'nin Değerlendirilmesi. International Journal Of Economic & Social Research, 11(2).
- Topuz, Y. V. (2010). Tüketici güveni ve hisse senedi fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi.
- TÜİK. (2019). Tüketici Güven Endeksi - Genel Açıklama. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. adresinden erişildi http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1104 (Erişim Tarihi, 29 Temmuz 2019).
- Usul, H., Küçüksille, E., & Karaoğlan, S. (2017). Güven Endekslerindeki Değişimlerin Hisse Senedi Piyasalarına Etkileri: Borsa İstanbul Örneği. Suleyman Demirel University Journal Of Faculty Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 22(3).
- Utaka, A., (2003). “Confidence and real economy-the Japanese case”, Applied Economics, Vol: 35, No:3, 337-342.
- Walker, I., & Young, J. (2001). An economist’s guide to lottery design. The Economic Journal, 111(475), F700-F722.
- Vurur, N. S., & Diler, H. G. (2018). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Güven-Hisse Senedi Getiri İlişkisi1. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(1), 581-596.
- Yaşar, M. R. (2010). Şans oyunları ve iddaa. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(34), 138-171.
- http://www.mpi.gov.tr/node/5 (erişim tarihi: 20.07.2019)
Psychological Effects on Determining Consumer Confidence Index: Relationship between Games of Chance
Öz
Measuring and analyzing consumer expectations in the economy is crucial to making the right economic decisions. If the expectations are interpreted correctly, the precaution to be taken will be effective. Expectations can also provide pioneering information for future undesirable economic situations. It is a very difficult task to estimate the leading indicators. Because the science of economics is a science related to society. The behavior of the people constituting the society is shaped by psychological factors. It is very difficult to monitor or measure the psychological factors in question. Confidence indices are important macro calculations that can provide information about social psychological state. The measurement of consumer expectations in Turkey, the Consumer Confidence Index (TGA) is an index used widely considered a leading indicator for economic events and to live. In this study, an indicator that could be a pioneer for TGE was tried to be determined. For this purpose, the relationship between TGE and the rate of playing legal chances regulated by the state was analyzed in order to reflect the psychological status of consumers. The results of the causality analysis, short- and long-term relationships with TG between games of chance to play amounts were detected in Turkey.
Anahtar Kelimeler
games of chance leading indicators consumer confidence index
Kaynakça
- Apinunmahakul, A., & Devlin, R. A. (2004). Charitable giving and charitable gambling: an empirical investigation. National Tax Journal, 67-88.
- Başarır, Ç., Bicil, İ. M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2019). The Relationship Between Selected Financial and Macroeconomic Variables with Consumer Confidence Index. Journal of Yaşar University, 14, 173-183.
- Çankaya, S., & Alp, E. A. (2019). Beklenti Endekslerinin Sanayi Üretimi Üzerine Etkisi. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (23), 225-236.
- Hatemi-j, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
- Hatemi-j, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
- Hollanders, D., & Vliegenthart, R. (2011). The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: The Dutch case. Journal of Economic Psychology, 32(3), 367-373.
- Jansen, W. J., & Nahuis, N. J. (2003). The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence. Economics Letters, 79(1), 89-98.
- Katona, G., (1968). “Consumer behavior: Theory and findings on expectations and aspirations”, The American Economic Review, Vol:58, No:2, 19-30.
- Matsusaka, J. G., & Sbordone, A. M. (1995). Consumer confidence and economic fluctuations. Economic Inquiry, 33(2), 296-318.
- Milli Piyango İdaresi 2018 Faaliyet Raporu
- Otto, M.W. (1999). “Consumer Sentiment and The Stock Market”, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics, Discussion Paper, November, Discussion Series No: 60.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Sadeghzadeh, K. (2018). Borsanın Psikolojik Faktörlere Duyarlılığı: Oynaklık Endeksi (Vıx) Ve Tüketici Güven Endeksi (Tge) İle Bıst 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişkiler. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(2), 238-253.
- Sağır, A., & Çabuk, S. (2010). Şans oyunlarının toplumun beklentileri üzerine etkisi: “Sakarya örneği”. Sakarya Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Dergisi, 1, 143-166.
- Uğur, A. (2015). Kamusal Finansman Açısından Devlet Piyango Kurumlarının Analizi: Özelleştirme Sürecinde Milli Piyango İdaresi'nin Değerlendirilmesi. International Journal Of Economic & Social Research, 11(2).
- Topuz, Y. V. (2010). Tüketici güveni ve hisse senedi fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi.
- TÜİK. (2019). Tüketici Güven Endeksi - Genel Açıklama. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. adresinden erişildi http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1104 (Erişim Tarihi, 29 Temmuz 2019).
- Usul, H., Küçüksille, E., & Karaoğlan, S. (2017). Güven Endekslerindeki Değişimlerin Hisse Senedi Piyasalarına Etkileri: Borsa İstanbul Örneği. Suleyman Demirel University Journal Of Faculty Of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 22(3).
- Utaka, A., (2003). “Confidence and real economy-the Japanese case”, Applied Economics, Vol: 35, No:3, 337-342.
- Walker, I., & Young, J. (2001). An economist’s guide to lottery design. The Economic Journal, 111(475), F700-F722.
- Vurur, N. S., & Diler, H. G. (2018). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Güven-Hisse Senedi Getiri İlişkisi1. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(1), 581-596.
- Yaşar, M. R. (2010). Şans oyunları ve iddaa. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(34), 138-171.
- http://www.mpi.gov.tr/node/5 (erişim tarihi: 20.07.2019)
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Research Articles |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 13 Mart 2020 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 17 Şubat 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2 |
Kaynak Göster
BILTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) altında çalışmaktadır.