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DEMAND-SIDE PERSPECTIVE IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY OF BRIC COUNTRIES: A DEMAND DECOMPOSITION

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2, 641 - 661, 29.10.2022
https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1149159

Öz

Historically, demand has been an important dynamic for industrialization. Even so, in the industrialization policies, supply-side dynamics are considered and demand-side dynamics are ignored. However, for sustainable industrialization and growth, demand-side dynamics should be considered. In this context, the study aims to analyse how demand-side dynamics contribute to the economy and manufacturing industry. For this, demand decomposition was made in BRIC countries by using the Dutch method proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005; 2008). The National Input-Output Tables (NIOTs) in the WIOD for the 2000-2014 period were used. According to the findings, domestic final demand is an important dynamic of the economy in BRIC countries. Similarly, in the manufacturing industry, excluding China, domestic final demand is more dominant. When compared to the total economy, foreign value added is higher in the manufacturing industry. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, domestic final demand and domestic value-added increased, while final foreign demand and foreign value-added decreased. Besides, especially in developing countries to demand to be an effective dynamic, policies that increase real income, provide demand diversity and expand the middle class should be produced.

Kaynakça

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  • Aoki, M., & Yoshikawa, H. (2002). Demand saturation-creation and economic growth. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 48(2), 127-154. doi:10.1016/S0167-2681(01)00229-3
  • Aydoğuş, O. (2015). Girdi-Çıktı modellerine giriş (4. b.). Efil Yayınevi.
  • Bilir, H. (2019). Entelektüel bir iktisatçı: John Maynard Keynes. Dört Öge(16), 83-96. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/dortoge/issue/52314/643591
  • Casadella, V. (2018). Innovation systems in emerging economies: MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey). London: Wiley.
  • Chai, A. (2018). Household consumption patterns and the sectoral composition of growing economies: A review of the interlinkages. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP3/2018. Vienna: Unıted Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10166980/unido-file-10166980
  • Cieślik, E., Biegańska, J., & Środa-Murawska, S. (2021). Central and Eastern European States from an international perspective: Economic potential and paths of participation in global value chains. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 57, 3587-3603. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1602519
  • Clark, G. (2013). Fukaralığa veda: Dünyanın kısa iktisadi tarihi. İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi.
  • Desdoigts, A., & Jaramillo, F. (2009). Trade, demand spillovers, and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective. Journal of International Economics, 79(2), 248-258. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.07.008
  • Dökmen, G., & Vural, T. (2011). Maliye politikalarının Keynesyen olmayan etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi(161), 118-132. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/007.pdf
  • Duarte, M. (2018). Manufactured goods consumption, relative prices and productivity. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 6/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10307933/unido-file-10307933
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  • Escaith, H. (2016). Aggregate demand, vertical specialization and growth accounting. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 7(3), 1-20. doi:10.1142/S1793993316500162
  • Felipe, J., & Mehta, A. (2016). Deindustrialization? A global perspective. Economics Letters, 149, 148-151. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.10.038
  • Fine, B., & Leopold, E. (1990). Consumerism and the industrial revolution. Social History, 15(2), 151-179. doi:10.1080/03071029008567764
  • Fisunoğlu, M., & Tan, B. K. (2009). Keynes Devrimi ve Keynesyen iktisat. Ekonomik Yakalaşım, 20(70), 31-60. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/ey.10680
  • Foellmi, R., & Zweimüller , J. (2006). Income distribution and demand-induced ınnovations . The Review of Economic Studies, 73(4), 941-960. doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00403.x
  • Francois, J., & Kaplan, S. (1996). Aggregate demand shifts, income distribution, and the Linder hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(2), 244-250. doi:10.2307/2109926
  • Goldar, B., Das, D. K., Das, P. C., & Gupta, N. (2020). Domestic versus imported contesnts in exports: The case of Indias's merchandise trade. Journal of South Asian Development, 15(1), 62-96. doi:10.1177/0973174120922451
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BRIC ÜLKELERİ İMALAT SANAYİNDE TALEP YANLI YAKLAŞIM: BİR TALEP AYRIŞTIRMASI

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2, 641 - 661, 29.10.2022
https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1149159

Öz

Tarihsel olarak, talep sanayileşme için önemli bir dinamik olmuştur. Buna rağmen sanayileşme politikalarında arz yanlı dinamikler dikkate alınmakta ve talep yanlı dinamikler eksik kalmaktadır. Ancak sürdürülebilir sanayileşme ve büyüme için talep dinamikleri de dikkate alınmalıdır. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı, talep dinamiklerinin ekonomi ve imalat sanayide nasıl bir katkı sağladığını analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın amacı kapsamında, Kranendonk ve Verbruggen (2005; 2008) tarafından önerilen Hollanda yöntemi kullanılarak BRIC ülkelerinde talep ayrıştırması yapılmıştır. Bu ülkelerin WIOD’ta yer alan 2000-2014 dönemine ait Ulusal Girdi-Çıktı Tabloları (NIOTs) kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre BRIC ülkelerinde yurtiçi nihai talep ekonominin önemli bir dinamiğidir. İmalat sanayide ise Çin hariç yurtiçi nihai talep daha baskındır. Toplam ekonomi ile karşılaştırıldığında yabancı katma değer imalat sanayinde daha yüksektir. Bir diğer önemli bulgu ise 2008-2009 küresel finansal kriz döneminde yurtdışı nihai talep ve yabancı katma değer azalırken, yurtiçi nihai talep ve yurtiçi katma değer artmıştır. Bununla birlikte özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sanayileşme ve kalkınma sürecinde talebin etkili bir dinamik olabilmesi için reel geliri artırıcı, talep çeşitliliğini ve orta sınıfın genişlemesini sağlayan politikalar üretilmelidir.

Kaynakça

  • Amar, A., Landau, M. T., & Wikierman, A. (2016). Descomposicion alternativa de los componentes de la demanda agregada. Estudios Y Perspectivas(47), 1-29. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/40476/S1600705_es.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
  • Aoki, M., & Yoshikawa, H. (2002). Demand saturation-creation and economic growth. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 48(2), 127-154. doi:10.1016/S0167-2681(01)00229-3
  • Aydoğuş, O. (2015). Girdi-Çıktı modellerine giriş (4. b.). Efil Yayınevi.
  • Bilir, H. (2019). Entelektüel bir iktisatçı: John Maynard Keynes. Dört Öge(16), 83-96. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/dortoge/issue/52314/643591
  • Casadella, V. (2018). Innovation systems in emerging economies: MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey). London: Wiley.
  • Chai, A. (2018). Household consumption patterns and the sectoral composition of growing economies: A review of the interlinkages. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP3/2018. Vienna: Unıted Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10166980/unido-file-10166980
  • Cieślik, E., Biegańska, J., & Środa-Murawska, S. (2021). Central and Eastern European States from an international perspective: Economic potential and paths of participation in global value chains. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 57, 3587-3603. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1602519
  • Clark, G. (2013). Fukaralığa veda: Dünyanın kısa iktisadi tarihi. İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi.
  • Desdoigts, A., & Jaramillo, F. (2009). Trade, demand spillovers, and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective. Journal of International Economics, 79(2), 248-258. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.07.008
  • Dökmen, G., & Vural, T. (2011). Maliye politikalarının Keynesyen olmayan etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Maliye Dergisi(161), 118-132. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/007.pdf
  • Duarte, M. (2018). Manufactured goods consumption, relative prices and productivity. Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development Working Paper Series WP 6/2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/download/10307933/unido-file-10307933
  • Easterly, W. (2000). The middle class consensus and economic development. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2346. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18849
  • Escaith, H. (2016). Aggregate demand, vertical specialization and growth accounting. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 7(3), 1-20. doi:10.1142/S1793993316500162
  • Felipe, J., & Mehta, A. (2016). Deindustrialization? A global perspective. Economics Letters, 149, 148-151. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2016.10.038
  • Fine, B., & Leopold, E. (1990). Consumerism and the industrial revolution. Social History, 15(2), 151-179. doi:10.1080/03071029008567764
  • Fisunoğlu, M., & Tan, B. K. (2009). Keynes Devrimi ve Keynesyen iktisat. Ekonomik Yakalaşım, 20(70), 31-60. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/ey.10680
  • Foellmi, R., & Zweimüller , J. (2006). Income distribution and demand-induced ınnovations . The Review of Economic Studies, 73(4), 941-960. doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00403.x
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  • Goldar, B., Das, D. K., Das, P. C., & Gupta, N. (2020). Domestic versus imported contesnts in exports: The case of Indias's merchandise trade. Journal of South Asian Development, 15(1), 62-96. doi:10.1177/0973174120922451
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  • Mikulic, D., & Lovrincevic, Z. (2018). The ımport content of croatian economic sectors and final demand. Economic Research-ekonomska Istrazivanja, 31(1), 2003-2023. doi: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1480967
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  • Naudé, W., Szirmai, A., & Haraguchi, N. (2015). Structural change and industrial development in the BRICS. Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198725077.001.0001
  • Neumann, R., & Tabrizy, S. S. (2021). Exchange rates and trade balances: Effects of intra-industry trade and vertical specialization. Open Economies Review, 32, 613-647. doi:10.1007/s11079-020-09612-4
  • Pahl, S., & Timmer, M. P. (2019). Patterns of vertical specialisation in trade: Long-run evidence for 91 countries. Review of World Economics, 155, 459-486. doi:10.1007/s10290-019-00352-3
  • Palma, J. G. (2014). De-industrialisation, ‘premature’ de-industrialisation and the Dutch-Disease. Revista NECAT, 7-23. doi:10.20430/ete.v86i344.970.
  • Pamuk, S. (2008). Globalization, industrialization and changing politics in Turkey. New perspectives on Turkey, 38(38), 267-273. doi:10.1017/S0896634600005008
  • Pieper, U. (2000). Deindustrialisation and the social and economic sustainability nexus in developing countries: Cross‐country evidence on productivity and employment. The Journal of Development Studies, 36(4), 66-99. doi:10.1080/00220380008422638
  • Prete, D. D., Giovannetti, G., & Marvasi, E. (2018). Global value chains: New evidence for North Africa. International Economics, 153, 42-54. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2017.03.002
  • Purwono, R., Esquivias, M. A., Sugiharti, L., Heriqbaldi, U., Handoyo, R. D., & Airlangga, U. (2020). Value chains, production networks and regional integration: The case of regional integration. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 54(1), 135-151. doi:10.17576/JEM-2020-5401-10
  • Rodrik, D. (2006). Industrial development: Stylized facts and policies. U.N.-DESA Working Papers. USA. https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/industrial-development.pdf
  • Rodrik, D. (2009). Tek ekonomi çok reçete: Küreselleşme, kurumlar ve ekonomik büyüme. (N. Domaniç, Çev.). Eflatun Yayınevi.
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  • Töngör, Ü., & Taymaz, E. (2017). Türkiye imalat sanayiinde firma büyümesi ve istihdam. M. Koyuncu, H. Mıhcı, & E. Yeldan içinde, Geçmişten Geleceğe türkiye ekonomisi Fikret Şenses'e armağan (s. 75-94). İletişim Yayınları.
  • Tregenna, F. (2013). Deindustrialization and reindustrialization. Adam Szirmai, W. Naudé, & L. Alcorta (Ed.) içinde, Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century (s. 76-101). Oxford University Press.
  • Tregenna, F. (2015). Deindustrialisation, structural change and sustainable economic growth. UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 2015-032. The Netherlands: Maastricht Economic and social Research institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU‐MERIT). file:///C:/Users/sahin/Downloads/wp2015-032.pdf
  • UNIDO. (2017). Demand for manufacturing: Driving inclusive and sustainable industrial development. Industrial Development Report 2018. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization. https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2017-11/IDR2018_FULL%20REPORT.pdf
  • WIOD. (2022). Groningen Growth and Development Centre. World Input-Output Database: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/valuechain/wiod/
  • Wu, S., Yalin Lei, & Li Li. (2015). Evaluation of the contributions of four components of gross domestic product in various regions in China. PLoS ONE , 10(2), 1-17. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0121594
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  • Yi, J., & Liu, M. (2019). Relating vertical specialization to indigenous technological capability growth: The Case of China. The Chinese Economy, 52(6), 449-463. doi:10.1080/10971475.2019.1617951
Toplam 83 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şahin Nas 0000-0003-3267-4432

Ebru Arıcıoğlu 0000-0001-8278-0167

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Ekim 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Temmuz 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 31 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Nas, Ş., & Arıcıoğlu, E. (2022). BRIC ÜLKELERİ İMALAT SANAYİNDE TALEP YANLI YAKLAŞIM: BİR TALEP AYRIŞTIRMASI. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 31(2), 641-661. https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1149159