Araştırma Makalesi
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AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON DOMESTIC SAVINGS IN MIST ECONOMIES

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 23, 26 - 49, 28.05.2022
https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.978335

Öz

The current study aims to analyze the effect of real GDP, fixed capital, final consumption expenditures of the government, inflation rate, and current account balance formations on domestic savings within the scope of the annual data of MIST (Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey) countries for the period of 1990-2019 by using the balanced panel data method. The cross-sectional dependence of the panel units used in the analysis was investigated using Pesaran (2015) CD test, and it was determined that the series had a weak inter-unit correlation. Therefore, Levin et al. (2002) (LLC) test, which is one of the first generation panel unit root tests, was used for the stationarity analysis of the analysis variables, and it was concluded that savings, GDP, inflation and current account balance series were stationary at the I(0) level while the public expenditure series were stationary at the I(I) level. The fixed effect panel regression analysis applied for the model created in this context was estimated using the Driscoll & Kraay (1998) estimator. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined the share of domestic savings that is positively affected in GDP from economic growth, fixed capital formations and current account balance; it is negatively affected from inflation and government expenditures. According to the findings, it is noteworthy that the variable with the most impact on domestic savings is the current account balance, while the variable with the least impact is growth. This result is an indication that domestic savings are closely related to the stability performance of countries regarding the external economic balance. As a matter of fact, the improvements in the current account balance will positively affect the domestic economic balance dynamics of the countries and contribute to the increase in savings. However, the low level of economic growth's impact on savings can be evaluated in the direction of giving priority to policies for external balance.

Kaynakça

  • Abasimi, I. & Martin, A.Y. (2018). Determinants of national saving in four west African countries. International journal of economics and finance, 10(5), 67-74.
  • Athukorola, P. C. & Sen, K. (2004). The determinants of private saving in India. World development, 32(3), 491-503.
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances. Econometric theory, 15, 814-823.
  • Barış, S. & Uzay, N. (2015). Yurtiçi tasarruflar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Erciyes üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilimler fakültesi dergisi, 46, 119-151.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • Beyaz Sipahi, B. (2021). Hanehalkı tasarruf oranının ekonomik ve demografik belirleyicileri: GMM yaklaşımı. Journal of Yasar university, 16(61), 248-263.
  • Bhandari, R., Dhakal, D., Pradhan, G. & Upadhyaya, K. P. (2007). Determinants of private saving in South Asia. South Asia economic journal, 8, 205-217.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and fixed effect models. The review of economic studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Callen, T. & Thimann, C. (1997). Empirical determinants of household saving: evidence from OECD countries. IMF working paper, 181.
  • Campell, J. (1987). Does savings anticipate declining labour ıncome? an alternative test of the pemanent ıncome hypotesis. Econometrecia, 55, 1251- 1270.
  • Chobanov, D. & Mladenova, A. (2009). What is the optimum size of government?. Institute for Market Economics, Bulgaria.
  • Corbo, V. & Hebbel, K. S. (1991). Public policies and saving in developing countries. Journal of development economics, 39, 89-l15.
  • Değirmen, S. & Şengönül, A. (2012). Türkiye’de net özel tasarruf-yatırım açığının belirleyicileri. Türkiye ekonomi kurumu, 114.
  • Dornbusch, R & Fischer, S. (1990). Macroeconomics. Sixth editions, Mcgraw-Hill.
  • Driscoll, J. C. & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of economics and statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
  • Duesenberry, J. (1949). Income, saving and the theory of consumer behavior. Harvard University Press.
  • Edwards, S. (1996). Why are Latin America’s saving rates so low? An international comparative analysis. Journal of development economics, 51, 5-44.
  • Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. MacMillan.
  • Frees, E.W. (1995). Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. Journal of econometrics, 69(2), 393-414.
  • Friedman, M. (1937). The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality ımplicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the american statistical association, 32(200), 675-701.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press.
  • Fry, M. (1986). Terms-of-trade dynamics in Asia: an analysis of national saving and domestic ınvestment responses to terms of-trade changes in 14 Asian LDCs. Joumal of international money and finance, 5, 57-73.
  • Göçer, I. (2019). Determinants of domestic saving rate in Turkey: a new generation econometric analysis. Theoretical and applied economics, 26(3), 135-150.
  • Gupta, K. L. (1971). Dependency rates and saving rates: comment. American economic review, 61, 469-471.
  • Hair, J. F., Bush, R. P. & Ortinau, D. J. (2002). Marketing research: within a changing ınformation environment. Second Edition, McGraw Hill.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Spesification test in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. (2006). Private saving determinants in European Countries: a panel cointegration approach. The social science journal, 43, 553-569.
  • Iqbal, M., Ur Rehman, H., Arshed, N. & Sardar, M. S. (2021). The macroeconomic and demographic determinants of saving behavior in selected countries of Asia. Journal global policy and governance, 10(1), 49-65.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and Money. MacMillan.
  • Khalil A. & Haider M., (2013). Macroeconomic determinants of national savings revisited: a small open economy of Pakistan. World applied sciences journal, 21(1), 49-57.
  • Kostakis, I. (2013). The determinants of household’s savings during recession: evidence from Greece. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2323559.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymtotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of econometrics, 108, 1- 24.
  • Loayza, N., Hebbel, K. S. & Serven, L. (2000). What drivers private saving across the world?. The review of economics and statistics, LXXXII; 2, 165-181.
  • Masson, P. R., Bayoumı T. & Samıeı, H. (1998). International evidence on the determinants of private saving. World Bank economic review, 12(3), 483-501.
  • Modigliani, F. (1966). The life cycle hypothesis of saving, the demand for wealth and the supply of capital. Social research, 33(2), 160-217.
  • Modigliani, F. (1986). Life cycle, ındividual thrift and the wealth of nations. The american economic review, 76(3), 297-313.
  • Modigliani, F. & Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. Post- Keynesian Economics, Rutgers University Press.
  • Nickel, C. & Vansteenkiste, I. (2008). Fiscal policies, the current account and ricardian equivalence. ECB Working Paper, 935.
  • Obstfeld, M. & Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of international macroeconomics. The MIT Press.
  • Özcan, K. M., Günay, A. & Ertaç, S. (2003). Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey. Applied economics, 35, 1405-1416.
  • Pervez, H. & Khan, R. (2020). Determinants of gross saving: evidence from Pakistan. Global economics review, V(I), 276-285.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econometric reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
  • Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. The economic journal, 38(152), 543-559.
  • Rehan, M., Khan, M. K. & Jadoon A. U. (2019). The effect of economic variables on national saving of Pakistan. European academıc research, VII(8), 4035-4056.
  • Shapiro, S.S. & Wilk, M.B. (1965). An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika, 52(3/4), 591-611.
  • Shiimi, I. W. & Kadhiwa, G. (1999). Savings and investment in Namibia. Bank of Namibia Research Department, 2, 1-29.
  • Uygur, E. (2012). Türkiye'de tasarrufların seyri ve etkileyen bazı unsurlar. Turkish Economic Association, 108.
  • Wald, A. (1943). Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters When the Number of Observations is Large. Transactions of the american mathematical society, 54 (3), 426-482.
  • Yaraşır, S. & Yılmaz, B. E. (2011). OECD ülkelerinde özel tasarruflar: bir bakış (1999-2007). Maliye dergisi, 160, 139-153.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi. Beta Yayınevi.

MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 23, 26 - 49, 28.05.2022
https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.978335

Öz

Bu çalışma, MIST (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) ülkelerinin 1990-2019 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kapsamında reel GSYH, sabit sermaye, hükümete ait nihai tüketim harcamaları, enflasyon oranı ve cari işlemler dengesi oluşumlarının yurtiçi tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisinin dengeli panel veri yöntemi ile analiz edilmesini amaçlamaktadır. Analizde kullanılan panel birimlerinin yatay kesit bağımlılığına ilişkin durumları Pesaran (2015) CD testi yardımıyla araştırılmış ve serilerin zayıf birimlerarası korelasyonlu olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu nedenle analiz değişkenlerinin durağanlık analizi için 1. Nesil panel birim kök testlerinden olan Levin vd. (2002) (LLC) testinden yararlanılmış ve tasarruf, GSYH, enflasyon ve cari denge serilerinin I(0); kamu harcamaları serisinin ise I(I) düzeyinde durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu kapsamda oluşturulan model için uygulanan sabit etkili panel regresyon analizi Driscoll & Kraay (1998) tahmincisi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, yurtiçi tasarrufların GSYH içindeki payının ekonomik büyüme, sabit sermaye oluşumları ve cari işlemler dengesinden pozitif; enflasyon ve hükümet harcamalarından ise negatif yönde etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, tasarruflar üzerinde en fazla etkisi olan değişkenin cari işlemler dengesi, en az etki düzeyine sahip değişkenin ise büyüme olması dikkat çekmektedir. Bu sonuç, yurtiçi tasarrufların ülkelerin dış ekonomik dengeye ilişkin istikrar performansı ile yakından ilgili olduğunun bir göstergesidir. Nitekim cari işlemler dengesi iyileşmeleri ülkelerin iç ekonomik denge dinamiklerini de olumlu yönde etkileyerek tasarruf artışına katkıda bulunabilecektir. Bununla birlikte ekonomik büyümenin tasarruflar üzerindeki etkisinin düşük düzeyde olması dış dengeye yönelik politikalara öncelik verilmesi gerektiği yönünde değerlendirilebilecektir.

Kaynakça

  • Abasimi, I. & Martin, A.Y. (2018). Determinants of national saving in four west African countries. International journal of economics and finance, 10(5), 67-74.
  • Athukorola, P. C. & Sen, K. (2004). The determinants of private saving in India. World development, 32(3), 491-503.
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally spaced panel data regressions with AR(1) disturbances. Econometric theory, 15, 814-823.
  • Barış, S. & Uzay, N. (2015). Yurtiçi tasarruflar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Erciyes üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilimler fakültesi dergisi, 46, 119-151.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • Beyaz Sipahi, B. (2021). Hanehalkı tasarruf oranının ekonomik ve demografik belirleyicileri: GMM yaklaşımı. Journal of Yasar university, 16(61), 248-263.
  • Bhandari, R., Dhakal, D., Pradhan, G. & Upadhyaya, K. P. (2007). Determinants of private saving in South Asia. South Asia economic journal, 8, 205-217.
  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L. & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial correlation and fixed effect models. The review of economic studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Callen, T. & Thimann, C. (1997). Empirical determinants of household saving: evidence from OECD countries. IMF working paper, 181.
  • Campell, J. (1987). Does savings anticipate declining labour ıncome? an alternative test of the pemanent ıncome hypotesis. Econometrecia, 55, 1251- 1270.
  • Chobanov, D. & Mladenova, A. (2009). What is the optimum size of government?. Institute for Market Economics, Bulgaria.
  • Corbo, V. & Hebbel, K. S. (1991). Public policies and saving in developing countries. Journal of development economics, 39, 89-l15.
  • Değirmen, S. & Şengönül, A. (2012). Türkiye’de net özel tasarruf-yatırım açığının belirleyicileri. Türkiye ekonomi kurumu, 114.
  • Dornbusch, R & Fischer, S. (1990). Macroeconomics. Sixth editions, Mcgraw-Hill.
  • Driscoll, J. C. & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of economics and statistics, 80(4), 549-560.
  • Duesenberry, J. (1949). Income, saving and the theory of consumer behavior. Harvard University Press.
  • Edwards, S. (1996). Why are Latin America’s saving rates so low? An international comparative analysis. Journal of development economics, 51, 5-44.
  • Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. MacMillan.
  • Frees, E.W. (1995). Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data. Journal of econometrics, 69(2), 393-414.
  • Friedman, M. (1937). The use of ranks to avoid the assumption of normality ımplicit in the analysis of variance. Journal of the american statistical association, 32(200), 675-701.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press.
  • Fry, M. (1986). Terms-of-trade dynamics in Asia: an analysis of national saving and domestic ınvestment responses to terms of-trade changes in 14 Asian LDCs. Joumal of international money and finance, 5, 57-73.
  • Göçer, I. (2019). Determinants of domestic saving rate in Turkey: a new generation econometric analysis. Theoretical and applied economics, 26(3), 135-150.
  • Gupta, K. L. (1971). Dependency rates and saving rates: comment. American economic review, 61, 469-471.
  • Hair, J. F., Bush, R. P. & Ortinau, D. J. (2002). Marketing research: within a changing ınformation environment. Second Edition, McGraw Hill.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Spesification test in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. (2006). Private saving determinants in European Countries: a panel cointegration approach. The social science journal, 43, 553-569.
  • Iqbal, M., Ur Rehman, H., Arshed, N. & Sardar, M. S. (2021). The macroeconomic and demographic determinants of saving behavior in selected countries of Asia. Journal global policy and governance, 10(1), 49-65.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and Money. MacMillan.
  • Khalil A. & Haider M., (2013). Macroeconomic determinants of national savings revisited: a small open economy of Pakistan. World applied sciences journal, 21(1), 49-57.
  • Kostakis, I. (2013). The determinants of household’s savings during recession: evidence from Greece. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2323559.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymtotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of econometrics, 108, 1- 24.
  • Loayza, N., Hebbel, K. S. & Serven, L. (2000). What drivers private saving across the world?. The review of economics and statistics, LXXXII; 2, 165-181.
  • Masson, P. R., Bayoumı T. & Samıeı, H. (1998). International evidence on the determinants of private saving. World Bank economic review, 12(3), 483-501.
  • Modigliani, F. (1966). The life cycle hypothesis of saving, the demand for wealth and the supply of capital. Social research, 33(2), 160-217.
  • Modigliani, F. (1986). Life cycle, ındividual thrift and the wealth of nations. The american economic review, 76(3), 297-313.
  • Modigliani, F. & Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. Post- Keynesian Economics, Rutgers University Press.
  • Nickel, C. & Vansteenkiste, I. (2008). Fiscal policies, the current account and ricardian equivalence. ECB Working Paper, 935.
  • Obstfeld, M. & Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of international macroeconomics. The MIT Press.
  • Özcan, K. M., Günay, A. & Ertaç, S. (2003). Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey. Applied economics, 35, 1405-1416.
  • Pervez, H. & Khan, R. (2020). Determinants of gross saving: evidence from Pakistan. Global economics review, V(I), 276-285.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econometric reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
  • Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. The economic journal, 38(152), 543-559.
  • Rehan, M., Khan, M. K. & Jadoon A. U. (2019). The effect of economic variables on national saving of Pakistan. European academıc research, VII(8), 4035-4056.
  • Shapiro, S.S. & Wilk, M.B. (1965). An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples). Biometrika, 52(3/4), 591-611.
  • Shiimi, I. W. & Kadhiwa, G. (1999). Savings and investment in Namibia. Bank of Namibia Research Department, 2, 1-29.
  • Uygur, E. (2012). Türkiye'de tasarrufların seyri ve etkileyen bazı unsurlar. Turkish Economic Association, 108.
  • Wald, A. (1943). Tests of statistical hypotheses concerning several parameters When the Number of Observations is Large. Transactions of the american mathematical society, 54 (3), 426-482.
  • Yaraşır, S. & Yılmaz, B. E. (2011). OECD ülkelerinde özel tasarruflar: bir bakış (1999-2007). Maliye dergisi, 160, 139-153.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi. Beta Yayınevi.
Toplam 50 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Kezban Ayran Cihan 0000-0002-7700-7505

Dilara Ayla 0000-0002-0206-250X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Mayıs 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Ağustos 2021
Kabul Tarihi 29 Kasım 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 23

Kaynak Göster

APA Ayran Cihan, K., & Ayla, D. (2022). MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(23), 26-49. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.978335
AMA Ayran Cihan K, Ayla D. MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. Mayıs 2022;12(23):26-49. doi:10.53092/duiibfd.978335
Chicago Ayran Cihan, Kezban, ve Dilara Ayla. “MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12, sy. 23 (Mayıs 2022): 26-49. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.978335.
EndNote Ayran Cihan K, Ayla D (01 Mayıs 2022) MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12 23 26–49.
IEEE K. Ayran Cihan ve D. Ayla, “MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”, Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 12, sy. 23, ss. 26–49, 2022, doi: 10.53092/duiibfd.978335.
ISNAD Ayran Cihan, Kezban - Ayla, Dilara. “MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12/23 (Mayıs 2022), 26-49. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.978335.
JAMA Ayran Cihan K, Ayla D. MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2022;12:26–49.
MLA Ayran Cihan, Kezban ve Dilara Ayla. “MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 12, sy. 23, 2022, ss. 26-49, doi:10.53092/duiibfd.978335.
Vancouver Ayran Cihan K, Ayla D. MIST EKONOMİLERİNDE YURTİÇİ TASARRUFLAR ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2022;12(23):26-49.

Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
Dicle University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences