Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 1 - 8, 01.03.2019
Öz
In this study, the change created by public and private consumption expenditures on total investments in Turkey during the period 2003:Q1-2018:Q2 was examined by time series analysis methods using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). As a result of the findings obtained, it was determined that there is a long-term relationship between private consumption expenditures and investment expenditures and that 1% increase in private consumption expenditures in the long-term will cause 2.06% increase in investments. On the other hand, it was determined that there is longterm relationship between public consumption expenditures and investment expenditures and that 1% increase in public consumption expenditures in the long-term will cause 0.86% decrease in investments
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Akdoğan, A. (2016), Kamu Maliyesi, Gazi Kitabevi, 17.Baskı, Ankara
- Bohner, M., Gelles, G., & Heim, J. (2010), “Multiplier-accelerator Models on Time Scales”. International Journal of Statistics and Economics, Volumu: 4, Issue: 10, p.1-12.
- Chari, V.V. (1994), “Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model”, Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 102, Issue: 4, p.52–61
- Chow, G.C. (1985), “A Model of Chinese National Income Determination”, Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 93, Issue: 4, p.782–792
- Dassios, I. and Zimbidis, A. (2014), “The Classical Samuelson’s Model in a Multi-Country Context Under a Delayed Framework with Interaction”, Dyn Contin Discrete Impuls Syst, Ser B, Appl Algorithms, Volume: 21, Issue: 4–5b, p.261–274
- Dassios, I. and Kalogeropoulos, G. (2014), “On the Stability of Equilibrium for a Reformulated Foreign Trade Model of Three Countries”, Journal of Industrial Engineering International, Volume: 10, Issue: 71, p.1-9
- Dassios, I., Kontzalis C. and Kalogeropoulos, G. (2012). “A Stability Result on a Reformulated Samuelson Economical Model”, In: Proceedings of the 32nd IASTED International Conference
- Day, R. (1999). Complex Economic Dynamics: An Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics, MIT Press, Vol: 2, Cambridge
- Dickey, A.D. ve Fuller, A.W. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 74, Issue: 366, p.427-431.
- Edelberg W, Eichenbaum M, and Fischer J. (1999), “Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchase”, Rev Econ Dyn, Volume: 2, p.166–206.
- Giordano, R., Momigliano, S, Neri, S. and Roberto Perotti (2007), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model”, European Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 23, p.707–733
- Goodwin, R. (1951), “The Nonlinear Accelerator and the Persistence of Business Cycles”, Econometrica, Volume:19, p.1–17.
- Hicks, J. (1950), Contribution to Theory of Trade Cycle, Clarendon Press,Oxford.
- Kaldor, N. (1940), “A Model of the Trade Cycle”, Economic Journal, Volume: 50, p.78–92.
- Kalecki, M., (1935), “A Macrodynamic Theory of Business Cycles”, Econometrica, Volume: 3, p.327–344.
- Öztürk, Nazım, (2015), Maliye Politikası, Ekin Yayınevi, 3.Baskı, Bursa
- Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume: 16, p.289-326.
- Phillips, P.C. B ve Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, Volume: 75, Issue: 2, p.335-346.
- Puu, T., Gardini L. and Sushko, I., (2004). “A Hicksian Multiplier–Accelerator Model with Floor Determined by Capital Stock”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume: 56, p.331–348
- Riley, G. (2007), Core Topics in Macroeconomics, AS Economics Digital Textbook: Tutor2u Limited.
- Rosser, J.B. (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities, Academic Publishers, Boston
- Samuelson, P. (1939), “Interaction Between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume: 21, p.75–78.
- Susam, Nazan (2016), Kamu Maliyesi Temel Kavramlar ve Esaslar, Beta Yayıncılık, 2. Baskı, İstanbul.
- Tokatlıoğlu, Mircan ve Ufuk, Selen (2017), Maliye Politikası, Ekin Yayınevi, Bursa
- Westerhoff, F. H. (2006), “Samuelson's Multiplier-Accelerator Model Revisited”, Applied Economics Letters, Volume: 1, Issue: 13, p.89-92.
- Wincoop, E. (1996). “A Multi-Country Real Business Cycle Model”, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Volume: 23, p.233–251
- Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. (1992), “Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, Volume: 10, p.251-270.
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 1 - 8, 01.03.2019
Öz
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 2003:Q1-2018:Q2 döneminde kamu ve özel tüketim harcamalarının toplam yatırımlar üzerinde yarattığı değişim, zaman serisi analizi yöntemlerinden Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Modeli (ARDL) ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular neticesinde, özel tüketim harcamaları ile yatırım harcamaları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu, ayrıca uzun dönemde özel tüketim harcamalarında meydana gelecek %1’lik bir artışın yatırımlar üzerinde %2.06’lık artışa neden olacağı tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan, kamu tüketim harcamaları ile yatırım harcamaları arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu, ayrıca uzun dönemde kamu tüketim harcamalarında meydana gelecek %1’lik bir artışın yatırımlar üzerinde %0.86’lık azalışa neden olacağı tespit edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Akdoğan, A. (2016), Kamu Maliyesi, Gazi Kitabevi, 17.Baskı, Ankara
- Bohner, M., Gelles, G., & Heim, J. (2010), “Multiplier-accelerator Models on Time Scales”. International Journal of Statistics and Economics, Volumu: 4, Issue: 10, p.1-12.
- Chari, V.V. (1994), “Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model”, Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 102, Issue: 4, p.52–61
- Chow, G.C. (1985), “A Model of Chinese National Income Determination”, Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 93, Issue: 4, p.782–792
- Dassios, I. and Zimbidis, A. (2014), “The Classical Samuelson’s Model in a Multi-Country Context Under a Delayed Framework with Interaction”, Dyn Contin Discrete Impuls Syst, Ser B, Appl Algorithms, Volume: 21, Issue: 4–5b, p.261–274
- Dassios, I. and Kalogeropoulos, G. (2014), “On the Stability of Equilibrium for a Reformulated Foreign Trade Model of Three Countries”, Journal of Industrial Engineering International, Volume: 10, Issue: 71, p.1-9
- Dassios, I., Kontzalis C. and Kalogeropoulos, G. (2012). “A Stability Result on a Reformulated Samuelson Economical Model”, In: Proceedings of the 32nd IASTED International Conference
- Day, R. (1999). Complex Economic Dynamics: An Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics, MIT Press, Vol: 2, Cambridge
- Dickey, A.D. ve Fuller, A.W. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 74, Issue: 366, p.427-431.
- Edelberg W, Eichenbaum M, and Fischer J. (1999), “Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchase”, Rev Econ Dyn, Volume: 2, p.166–206.
- Giordano, R., Momigliano, S, Neri, S. and Roberto Perotti (2007), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model”, European Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 23, p.707–733
- Goodwin, R. (1951), “The Nonlinear Accelerator and the Persistence of Business Cycles”, Econometrica, Volume:19, p.1–17.
- Hicks, J. (1950), Contribution to Theory of Trade Cycle, Clarendon Press,Oxford.
- Kaldor, N. (1940), “A Model of the Trade Cycle”, Economic Journal, Volume: 50, p.78–92.
- Kalecki, M., (1935), “A Macrodynamic Theory of Business Cycles”, Econometrica, Volume: 3, p.327–344.
- Öztürk, Nazım, (2015), Maliye Politikası, Ekin Yayınevi, 3.Baskı, Bursa
- Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R.J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume: 16, p.289-326.
- Phillips, P.C. B ve Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, Volume: 75, Issue: 2, p.335-346.
- Puu, T., Gardini L. and Sushko, I., (2004). “A Hicksian Multiplier–Accelerator Model with Floor Determined by Capital Stock”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume: 56, p.331–348
- Riley, G. (2007), Core Topics in Macroeconomics, AS Economics Digital Textbook: Tutor2u Limited.
- Rosser, J.B. (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities, Academic Publishers, Boston
- Samuelson, P. (1939), “Interaction Between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume: 21, p.75–78.
- Susam, Nazan (2016), Kamu Maliyesi Temel Kavramlar ve Esaslar, Beta Yayıncılık, 2. Baskı, İstanbul.
- Tokatlıoğlu, Mircan ve Ufuk, Selen (2017), Maliye Politikası, Ekin Yayınevi, Bursa
- Westerhoff, F. H. (2006), “Samuelson's Multiplier-Accelerator Model Revisited”, Applied Economics Letters, Volume: 1, Issue: 13, p.89-92.
- Wincoop, E. (1996). “A Multi-Country Real Business Cycle Model”, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Volume: 23, p.233–251
- Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. (1992), “Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, Volume: 10, p.251-270.
Toplam 27 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Research Article |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Mart 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1 |