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Is Renewable Energy Consumption Stationary in Newly Industrialized Countries? Evidence From RALS-LM Tests

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 180 - 192, 28.08.2021

Gökhan Konat

https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.962042
Cited By: 3

Öz

With the increasing population and developing technology, energy, which is an indispensable part of life in today's world, has a priority and important position for all countries. Energy is a strategic issue, especially for countries with insufficient resources, because these developing countries become heavily dependent on energy imports and their economies become fragile. Countries in this situation tend to use more renewable energy, thus reducing their energy dependency on the one hand, and trying to take steps towards sustainable development on the other hand. Within the scope of the study, it is investigated whether the renewable energy consumption is stable for the newly industrializing countries. For this purpose, unit root tests were applied to the renewable energy consumption data covering the years 1965-2019, taking into account the structural breaks based on the residual augmented least squares (RALS) technique. As a result of the analysis, in the light of the knowledge that RALS-based tests, which take into account the possibility of the non-normal distribution of residuals, give stronger results, it is seen that the renewable energy stationarity results differ according to the number and model of structural breaks used in newly industrialized countries. It has been concluded that the renewable energy consumption series of 8 countries industrialized for two structural breaks in both level and level and slope is stationary. This shows that the economies of the countries have started to focus on the use of renewable energy, which is less costly and does not cause environmental pollution, rather than fossil fuel consumption, and external shocks have a temporary effect.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Renewable Energy Consumption Unit Root RALS RALS-LM

Kaynakça

  • Agnolucci, P., & Venn, A. (2011). Industrial Energy Intensities in The UK: Is There a Deterministic or Stochastic Difference Among Sectors?. Applied Economics, 43(12), s. 1447-1462.
  • Aslan, A., & Kum, H. (2011). The Stationary of Energy Consumption for Turkish Disaggregate Data by Employing Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests. Energy, 36(7), s. 4256-4258.
  • Aslan, A. (2011). Does Natural Gas Consumption Follow A Nonlinear Path Over Time? Evidence From 50 US States. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(9), s. 4466-4469.
  • Barros, C. P., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Evidence of Long Memory Behavior In US Renewable Energy Consumption. Energy Policy, 41, s. 822-826.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test In The Presence of an Unknown Number Of Smooth Breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), s. 381-409.
  • Bozkurt, C., & Okumuş, İ. (2016). Petrol Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici Mi Yoksa Kalıcı Mı? Brıcs-T Ülkeleri İçin Doğrusal Ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testi Uygulamaları. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), s. 27-37.
  • Bozoklu, S., Yilanci, V., & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Persistence in per Capita Energy Consumption: A Fractional Integration Approach with A Fourier Function. Energy Economics, 91, 104926.
  • Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, L., J., Del Barrio‐Castro, T., & López‐Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the Panels: An Application to The GDP Per Capita. The Econometrics Journal, 8(2), s. 159-175.
  • Chen, P. F., & Lee, C. C. (2007). Is Energy Consumption Per Capita Broken Stationary? New Evidence From Regional-Based Panels. Energy Policy, 35(6), s. 3526-3540.
  • Christopoulos, D. K., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth Breaks And Non-Linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), s. 1076-1093.
  • Demir, E., & Gozgor, G. (2018). Are Shocks to Renewable Energy Consumption Permanent or Temporary? Evidence from 54 Developing and Developed Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(4), s. 3785-3792.
  • Duran, M. S. (2020). BRICS-T ülkelerinde enerji tüketiminin belirleyicileri: Ekonometrik bir uygulama. Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
  • Fendoğlu, E., (2021a). Stationarity Test of Renewable Energy Consumption with Fractional Frequency Fourier Unit Root Test: Evidence from BRICS-T Countries. Alphanumeric Journal, 9(1), s. 99-110.
  • Fendoğlu, E., (2021b). ABD için Yenilenebilir ve Yenilenemez Enerji Tüketimi Durağanlık Sınaması: Fourier Testlerden Kanıtlar. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), s. 123-141.
  • Gökcü, A., T., (2021). The Effect of Renewable Energy Resources on Economıc Growth: A Case Study for Turkey. Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences, Master’s Thesis.
  • Hsu, Y. C., Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2008). Revisited: Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? New Evidence from A Panel SURADF Approach. Energy Economics, 30(5), s. 2314-2330.
  • Hasanov, M., & Telatar, E. (2011). A Re-Examination of Stationarity of Energy Consumption: Evidence from New Unit Root Tests. Energy Policy, 39(12), s. 7726-7738.
  • Im, K. S., & Schmidt, P. (2008). More Efficient Estimation Under Non-Normality When Higher Moments Do Not Depend On The Regressors, Using Residual Augmented Least Squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), s. 219-233.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Non-Normal Errors. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (Pp. 315-342). Springer New York.
  • Karakurt, I. (2021). Modelling and Forecasting the Oil Consumptions of the BRICS-T Countries. Energy, 220, 119720.
  • Karhan, G. (2016). Enerji Yoğunluğu ve Ülkelerin Gelişmişlik Düzeyleri Arasındaki Ilişkinin Analizi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma. İnönü Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
  • Kızılkaya, O., & Konat, G. (2019). Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (31), s. 53-62.
  • Kula, F., Aslan, A., & Ozturk, I. (2012). Is per Capita Electricity Consumption Stationary? Time Series Evidence from OECD Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(1), s. 501-503.
  • Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2013). Will Policies To Promote Renewable Electricity Generation Be Effective? Evidence from Panel Stationarity and Unit Root Tests for 115 Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 22, s. 371-379.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), s. 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 1-16.
  • Lee, C. C., Ranjbar, O., & Lee, C. C. (2021). Testing the Persistence of Shocks on Renewable Energy Consumption: Evidence from a Quantile Unit-Root Test with Smooth Breaks. Energy, 215, 119190.
  • Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics And Statistics, 79(2), s. 212-218.
  • Meng, M., Payne, J. E., & Lee, J. (2013). Convergence in Per Capita Energy Use among OECD Countries. Energy Economics, 36, s. 536-545.
  • Meng, M., Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More Powerful LM Unit Root Tests with Non-Normal Errors. In Festschrift in honor of peter schmidt (pp. 343-357). Springer, New York, NY.
  • Meng, M., Lee, J. and Payne, J. E. (2016). RALS-LM Unit Root Test with Trend Breaks and Non-Normal Errors: Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis. In B. Mizrach (ed.), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 21(1), s. 31- 45.
  • Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are Fluctuations In Energy Consumption Per Capita Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of Pacific Island Countries. Energy Policy, 37(6), s. 2318-2326.
  • Mishra, V., & Smyth, R. (2014). Convergence in Energy Consumption Per Capita among ASEAN Countries. Energy Policy, 73, s. 180-185.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are Shocks to Energy Consumption Permanent or Temporary? Evidence from 182 Countries. Energy Policy, 35(1), s. 333-341.
  • Ozcan, B., & Ozturk, I. (2016). A New Approach to Energy Consumption per Capita Stationarity: Evidence from OECD Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 65, s. 332-344.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, s. 1361-1401.
  • Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. C. (1992). LM Tests for a Unit Root In The Presence of Deterministic Trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), s. 257-287.
  • Tiwari, A. K., & Albulescu, C. T. (2016). Renewable-To-Total Electricity Consumption Ratio: Estimating The Permanent Or Transitory Fluctuations Based On Flexible Fourier Stationarity And Unit Root Tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, s. 1409-1427.
  • Tütüncü, A., & Beşer, N. Ö. (2021). Türkiye’de Kişi Başına Enerji Kullanımı Durağan Mıdır?. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(62), s. 683-697.
  • Yasar, N. (2020). Stationarity Properties of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Commonwealth of Independent States. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 155.
  • Yilanci, V., & Tunali, Ç. B. (2014). Are Fluctuations in Energy Consumption Transitory or Permanent? Evidence From A Fourier LM Unit Root Test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 36, s. 20-25.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), s. 25-44.

Yeni Sanayileşmekte Olan Ülkelerde Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi Durağan Mı? RALS-LM Testlerinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 180 - 192, 28.08.2021

Gökhan Konat

https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.962042
Cited By: 3

Öz

Artan nüfus ve gelişen teknoloji ile birlikte günümüz dünyasında hayatın vazgeçilmez parçası olan enerji, tüm ülkeler için öncelikli ve önemli bir konumdadır. Enerji, özellikle kaynakları yetersiz olan ülkeler için stratejik bir konudur çünkü gelişme yolundaki bu ülkeler büyük ölçüde enerji ithalatına bağımlı hale gelmekte ve ekonomileri kırılganlaşmaktadır. Bu durumdaki ülkeler daha çok yenilenebilir enerji kullanımına yönelmekte ve böylece bir taraftan enerji bağımlılığını azaltırken diğer taraftan da sürdürülebilir kalkınma yolunda adımlar atmaya çalışmaktadırlar. Çalışma kapsamında yeni sanayileşmekte olan ülkeler için yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin durağan olup olmadığı araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla 1965-2019 yıllarını kapsayan yenilenebilir enerji tüketim verilerine kalıntılarla genişletilmiş En Küçük Kareler (RALS) tekniğine dayanan yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Analiz neticesinde kalıntıların normal dağılmama ihtimalini göz önünde bulunduran RALS temelli testlerin daha güçlü sonuçlar verdiği bilgisi ışığında yeni sanayileşmekte olan ülkelerde kullanılan yapısal kırılma sayısı ve modeline göre yenilenebilir enerji durağanlık sonuçlarının farklılaştığı görülmektedir. Hem düzeyde hem de düzeyde ve eğimde iki yapısal kırılma altında sanayileşmekte olan 8 ülkenin yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi serisinin durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu da ülke ekonomilerinin fosil yakıt tüketiminden ziyade daha az maliyetli ve çevre kirliliğine neden olmayan yenilenebilir enerji kullanımına ağırlık vermeye başladığını ve dışsal şokların geçici etkide bulunduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi Birim Kök RALS RALS-LM

Kaynakça

  • Agnolucci, P., & Venn, A. (2011). Industrial Energy Intensities in The UK: Is There a Deterministic or Stochastic Difference Among Sectors?. Applied Economics, 43(12), s. 1447-1462.
  • Aslan, A., & Kum, H. (2011). The Stationary of Energy Consumption for Turkish Disaggregate Data by Employing Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests. Energy, 36(7), s. 4256-4258.
  • Aslan, A. (2011). Does Natural Gas Consumption Follow A Nonlinear Path Over Time? Evidence From 50 US States. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(9), s. 4466-4469.
  • Barros, C. P., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Evidence of Long Memory Behavior In US Renewable Energy Consumption. Energy Policy, 41, s. 822-826.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test In The Presence of an Unknown Number Of Smooth Breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), s. 381-409.
  • Bozkurt, C., & Okumuş, İ. (2016). Petrol Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici Mi Yoksa Kalıcı Mı? Brıcs-T Ülkeleri İçin Doğrusal Ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testi Uygulamaları. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), s. 27-37.
  • Bozoklu, S., Yilanci, V., & Gorus, M. S. (2020). Persistence in per Capita Energy Consumption: A Fractional Integration Approach with A Fourier Function. Energy Economics, 91, 104926.
  • Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, L., J., Del Barrio‐Castro, T., & López‐Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the Panels: An Application to The GDP Per Capita. The Econometrics Journal, 8(2), s. 159-175.
  • Chen, P. F., & Lee, C. C. (2007). Is Energy Consumption Per Capita Broken Stationary? New Evidence From Regional-Based Panels. Energy Policy, 35(6), s. 3526-3540.
  • Christopoulos, D. K., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth Breaks And Non-Linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), s. 1076-1093.
  • Demir, E., & Gozgor, G. (2018). Are Shocks to Renewable Energy Consumption Permanent or Temporary? Evidence from 54 Developing and Developed Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(4), s. 3785-3792.
  • Duran, M. S. (2020). BRICS-T ülkelerinde enerji tüketiminin belirleyicileri: Ekonometrik bir uygulama. Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
  • Fendoğlu, E., (2021a). Stationarity Test of Renewable Energy Consumption with Fractional Frequency Fourier Unit Root Test: Evidence from BRICS-T Countries. Alphanumeric Journal, 9(1), s. 99-110.
  • Fendoğlu, E., (2021b). ABD için Yenilenebilir ve Yenilenemez Enerji Tüketimi Durağanlık Sınaması: Fourier Testlerden Kanıtlar. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), s. 123-141.
  • Gökcü, A., T., (2021). The Effect of Renewable Energy Resources on Economıc Growth: A Case Study for Turkey. Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences, Master’s Thesis.
  • Hsu, Y. C., Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2008). Revisited: Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? New Evidence from A Panel SURADF Approach. Energy Economics, 30(5), s. 2314-2330.
  • Hasanov, M., & Telatar, E. (2011). A Re-Examination of Stationarity of Energy Consumption: Evidence from New Unit Root Tests. Energy Policy, 39(12), s. 7726-7738.
  • Im, K. S., & Schmidt, P. (2008). More Efficient Estimation Under Non-Normality When Higher Moments Do Not Depend On The Regressors, Using Residual Augmented Least Squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), s. 219-233.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Non-Normal Errors. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (Pp. 315-342). Springer New York.
  • Karakurt, I. (2021). Modelling and Forecasting the Oil Consumptions of the BRICS-T Countries. Energy, 220, 119720.
  • Karhan, G. (2016). Enerji Yoğunluğu ve Ülkelerin Gelişmişlik Düzeyleri Arasındaki Ilişkinin Analizi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma. İnönü Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
  • Kızılkaya, O., & Konat, G. (2019). Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (31), s. 53-62.
  • Kula, F., Aslan, A., & Ozturk, I. (2012). Is per Capita Electricity Consumption Stationary? Time Series Evidence from OECD Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(1), s. 501-503.
  • Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2013). Will Policies To Promote Renewable Electricity Generation Be Effective? Evidence from Panel Stationarity and Unit Root Tests for 115 Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 22, s. 371-379.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), s. 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, 1-16.
  • Lee, C. C., Ranjbar, O., & Lee, C. C. (2021). Testing the Persistence of Shocks on Renewable Energy Consumption: Evidence from a Quantile Unit-Root Test with Smooth Breaks. Energy, 215, 119190.
  • Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend Breaks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics And Statistics, 79(2), s. 212-218.
  • Meng, M., Payne, J. E., & Lee, J. (2013). Convergence in Per Capita Energy Use among OECD Countries. Energy Economics, 36, s. 536-545.
  • Meng, M., Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More Powerful LM Unit Root Tests with Non-Normal Errors. In Festschrift in honor of peter schmidt (pp. 343-357). Springer, New York, NY.
  • Meng, M., Lee, J. and Payne, J. E. (2016). RALS-LM Unit Root Test with Trend Breaks and Non-Normal Errors: Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis. In B. Mizrach (ed.), Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 21(1), s. 31- 45.
  • Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are Fluctuations In Energy Consumption Per Capita Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of Pacific Island Countries. Energy Policy, 37(6), s. 2318-2326.
  • Mishra, V., & Smyth, R. (2014). Convergence in Energy Consumption Per Capita among ASEAN Countries. Energy Policy, 73, s. 180-185.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are Shocks to Energy Consumption Permanent or Temporary? Evidence from 182 Countries. Energy Policy, 35(1), s. 333-341.
  • Ozcan, B., & Ozturk, I. (2016). A New Approach to Energy Consumption per Capita Stationarity: Evidence from OECD Countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 65, s. 332-344.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, s. 1361-1401.
  • Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. C. (1992). LM Tests for a Unit Root In The Presence of Deterministic Trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), s. 257-287.
  • Tiwari, A. K., & Albulescu, C. T. (2016). Renewable-To-Total Electricity Consumption Ratio: Estimating The Permanent Or Transitory Fluctuations Based On Flexible Fourier Stationarity And Unit Root Tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, s. 1409-1427.
  • Tütüncü, A., & Beşer, N. Ö. (2021). Türkiye’de Kişi Başına Enerji Kullanımı Durağan Mıdır?. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(62), s. 683-697.
  • Yasar, N. (2020). Stationarity Properties of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Commonwealth of Independent States. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 155.
  • Yilanci, V., & Tunali, Ç. B. (2014). Are Fluctuations in Energy Consumption Transitory or Permanent? Evidence From A Fourier LM Unit Root Test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 36, s. 20-25.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock, And The Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), s. 25-44.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Gökhan Konat 0000-0002-0964-7893

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Ağustos 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Temmuz 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Konat, G. (2021). Yeni Sanayileşmekte Olan Ülkelerde Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi Durağan Mı? RALS-LM Testlerinden Kanıtlar. Ekonomi İşletme Ve Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 180-192. https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.962042

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