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Toplam Faktör Verimliliği Artışı ve Demografi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 81 - 90, 30.04.2020
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.690256

Öz

Toplam faktör verimliliği ekonomik büyümeyi açıklamada önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Toplam faktör verimliliğini etkileyen önemli faktörlerden biri de ülkelerin demografik yapısıdır. Tüm ülkeler belli bir noktada demografik dönüşüm yaşamaktadır. Bu demografik dönüşüm toplam faktör verimliliğini birçok kanal vasıtasıyla etkileyebilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, ülkelerin demografik geçiş sürecinden tam olarak faydalanması, uygulanacak uygun politikalara bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada, 1986-2017 döneminde demografik faktörler ile toplam faktör verimliliği artış olasılığı arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Toplam faktör verimliliği artış olasılığı ve demografik yapı arasındaki ilişki probit regresyon modeli ile test edilmektedir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, kişi başına gelir, kentleşme, beklenen yaşam süresi ve nüfus yoğunluğundaki artış toplam faktör verimliliği büyüme olasılığını artırırken; kişi başına sermaye stoku, bağımlılık oranı, genç bağımlılık oranı ve doğurganlık oranındaki artış ise toplam faktör verimliliği büyüme olasılığını azaltmaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, analiz bulguları Türkiye’de demografik yapı ile toplam faktör verimliliği arasında güçlü bir ilişki olduğunu işaret etmektedir.  

Kaynakça

  • Aiyar, S., Ebeke, C. and Shao, X. (2016). The impact of workforce aging on European productivity (IMF Working Paper No. 238). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/ 2016/wp16238.pdf
  • Becker, G. S., Glaeser, E. L. and Murphy, K. M. (1999). Population and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-149. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.2.145
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic transition (NBER Working Paper Series No. 8685). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w8685
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend (RAND Working Papers). Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1274.html.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G. and Finlay, J. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14, 79-101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10 887-009-9039-9
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Fink, G. (2010). Implications of population ageing for economic growth. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(4), 583-612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grq038
  • Danquah, M., Moral-Benito, E. and Ouattara, B. (2011). TFP growth and its determinants: Nonparametrics and model averaging (Banco De Espana Working Paper No. 1104). Retrieved fromhttps://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTr abajo/11/Fich/dt1104e.pdf
  • Disney, R. (1996). Can we afford to grow older? A perspective on the economics of aging. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.100
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Isaksson, A. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity: A literature review (Unido Research and Statistics Branch Staff Working Paper No. 02/2007). Retrieved from https://open.unido.org/api/documents/4812034/download/UNIDO-Publication-2007-4812034
  • Jajri, I. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity growth in Malaysia. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(3), 41-58. Retrieved from http://www.sesric.org/
  • Kögel, T. (2005). Youth dependency and total factor productivity. Journal of Development Economics, 76(1), 147-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.11.003
  • Kumar, A. and Kober, B. (2012). Urbanization, human capital, and cross-country productivity differences. Economics Letters, 117(1), 14-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.072
  • Liu, Y. and Westelius, N. (2016). The impact of demographics on productivity and inflation in Japan (IMF Working Paper No. 237). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/ Issues/2016/12/31/The-Impact-of-Demographics-on-Productivity-and-Inflation-in-Japan-44449
  • Lundquist, J. H., Anderton, L. and Yaukey, D. (2015). Demography: The study of human population. Illinois: Waveland Press, Inc.
  • Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J. and Powell, D. (2016). The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force and productivity (NBER Working Paper Series No. 22452). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w22452.pdf
  • Mahlber, B., Freund, I. and Prskawetz, A. (2013). Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria: Sector level evidence. Empirica, 40, 561-584. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-012-9192-9
  • Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: What have we learned from the East Asia experience?. Applied Population and Policy, 1(1), 3-14. Retrieved from http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/
  • Nguyen, H. M. and Nguyen, L. D. (2018). The relationship between urbanization and economic growth. International Journal of Social Economics, 46(2), 316-339. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0358
  • Nişancı, M., Doker, A. C., Türkmen, A. and Emsen, Ö. S. (2016, August). Emek verimliliğini belirleyen demografik unsurlar: Seçilmiş ülkeler üzerine analizler (1960-2010). In S. Sarı, A. H. Gencer and İ. Sözen (Ed.), International Conference on Eurasian Economies, (pp. 412-420). Paper presented at International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kaposvar: Beykent University Publication
  • Tang, J. and MacLeod, C. (2006). Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 39(2), 582-603. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00361.x
  • Wei, Z. and Hao, R. (2010). Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38, 472-491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.08.002
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2001). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Massachusetts: The MIT Press.

Total Factor Productivity Growth and Demographics: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 81 - 90, 30.04.2020
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.690256

Öz

Total factor productivity plays a crucial role in explaining overall economic growth. One of the important factors affecting the total factor productivity is the demographic structure of countries. All countries in the world are likely to experience demographic transition at some point. There are many channels through which demographic transition may impact total factor productivity. If a country wants to take full advantage of the demographic transition, proper policies should be implemented. This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between demographic factors and the likelihood of total factor productivity growth over the period of 1986-2017 in Turkey. Probit regression is applied to analyze the link between total factor productivity and demographic structure. The results show that an increase in income per capita, urban population, life expectancy at birth, and population density increases the likelihood of total factor productivity growth whereas an increase in capital stock per capita, dependency ratio, young dependency ratio, and fertility rate decreases the probability of total factor productivity growth.

Kaynakça

  • Aiyar, S., Ebeke, C. and Shao, X. (2016). The impact of workforce aging on European productivity (IMF Working Paper No. 238). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/ 2016/wp16238.pdf
  • Becker, G. S., Glaeser, E. L. and Murphy, K. M. (1999). Population and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-149. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.2.145
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic transition (NBER Working Paper Series No. 8685). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w8685
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend (RAND Working Papers). Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1274.html.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G. and Finlay, J. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14, 79-101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10 887-009-9039-9
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. and Fink, G. (2010). Implications of population ageing for economic growth. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(4), 583-612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grq038
  • Danquah, M., Moral-Benito, E. and Ouattara, B. (2011). TFP growth and its determinants: Nonparametrics and model averaging (Banco De Espana Working Paper No. 1104). Retrieved fromhttps://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTr abajo/11/Fich/dt1104e.pdf
  • Disney, R. (1996). Can we afford to grow older? A perspective on the economics of aging. Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.100
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Isaksson, A. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity: A literature review (Unido Research and Statistics Branch Staff Working Paper No. 02/2007). Retrieved from https://open.unido.org/api/documents/4812034/download/UNIDO-Publication-2007-4812034
  • Jajri, I. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity growth in Malaysia. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28(3), 41-58. Retrieved from http://www.sesric.org/
  • Kögel, T. (2005). Youth dependency and total factor productivity. Journal of Development Economics, 76(1), 147-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.11.003
  • Kumar, A. and Kober, B. (2012). Urbanization, human capital, and cross-country productivity differences. Economics Letters, 117(1), 14-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.072
  • Liu, Y. and Westelius, N. (2016). The impact of demographics on productivity and inflation in Japan (IMF Working Paper No. 237). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/ Issues/2016/12/31/The-Impact-of-Demographics-on-Productivity-and-Inflation-in-Japan-44449
  • Lundquist, J. H., Anderton, L. and Yaukey, D. (2015). Demography: The study of human population. Illinois: Waveland Press, Inc.
  • Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J. and Powell, D. (2016). The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labor force and productivity (NBER Working Paper Series No. 22452). Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w22452.pdf
  • Mahlber, B., Freund, I. and Prskawetz, A. (2013). Ageing, productivity and wages in Austria: Sector level evidence. Empirica, 40, 561-584. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-012-9192-9
  • Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: What have we learned from the East Asia experience?. Applied Population and Policy, 1(1), 3-14. Retrieved from http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/
  • Nguyen, H. M. and Nguyen, L. D. (2018). The relationship between urbanization and economic growth. International Journal of Social Economics, 46(2), 316-339. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0358
  • Nişancı, M., Doker, A. C., Türkmen, A. and Emsen, Ö. S. (2016, August). Emek verimliliğini belirleyen demografik unsurlar: Seçilmiş ülkeler üzerine analizler (1960-2010). In S. Sarı, A. H. Gencer and İ. Sözen (Ed.), International Conference on Eurasian Economies, (pp. 412-420). Paper presented at International Conference on Eurasian Economies, Kaposvar: Beykent University Publication
  • Tang, J. and MacLeod, C. (2006). Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 39(2), 582-603. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0008-4085.2006.00361.x
  • Wei, Z. and Hao, R. (2010). Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38, 472-491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.08.002
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2001). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
Toplam 24 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Uğur Ursavaş 0000-0003-1918-1457

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2020
Kabul Tarihi 18 Nisan 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Ursavaş, U. (2020). Total Factor Productivity Growth and Demographics: The Case of Turkey. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 81-90. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.690256