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Does Inflation Instability Cause Environmental Pollution in Türkiye? Evidence from the Fourier-Wavelet Causality Test

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 4, 622 - 642, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1353763

Öz

The Turkish economy has faced many macroeconomic problems in terms of GDP stability, inflation stability, growth rate, and exchange rate. This situation has become even more noticeable in recent times, especially with the negative effects of the Covid 19 epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Thus, inflation in Turkiye has increased and has a more unstable outlook. However, environmental problems have also increased. In light of this information, the aim of the study is to examine the causality relationship between inflation instability and environmental pollution for the period 1990-2021 by considering growth, energy consumption, and financial development as control variables in Turkiye. For this purpose, firstly, the series was subjected to wavelet transform. Afterwards, the transformed series were analyzed with the Fourier TY and Fractional Fourier TY causality tests as short, medium, and long term. Findings from the Fourier causality test show that inflation instability promotes environmental pollution in the short, medium, and long term. According to the Fractional Fourier causality test, which I used to test whether the shocks are permanent, there is persistence from inflation instability to environmental pollution only in the medium term. This study is the first to examine the subject in the case of Türkiye.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad, W., Ullah, S. and Ozturk, I. (2021). Does inflation instability affect environmental pollution? Fresh evidence from Asian economies. Energy & Environment, 32(7), 1275–1291. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X20971804
  • Alola, A.A., Yalçiner, K. and Alola, U.V. (2019). Renewables, food (in) security, and inflation regimes in the coastline Mediterranean countries (CMCs): The environmental pros and cons. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(33), 34448–34458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06576-y
  • Andersson, F.N. (2016). Identifying and modelling cycles and long waves in economic time series. In J. Ljunberg (Eds.), Structural analysis and the process of economic development (pp. 54-75). UK: Routledge.
  • Baloch, M.A., Meng, F., Zhang, J. and Xu, Z. (2018). Financial instability and CO2 emissions: The case of Saudi Arabia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(26), 26030–26045. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2654-2
  • Bernanke, B.S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885568
  • Cagri, S., Yilanci, V., Ulucak, R. and Jones, K. (2021). Technology spillovers and sustainable environment : Evidence from time-series analyses with Fourier extension. Journal of Environmental Management, 294, 113033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113033
  • Deka, A., Cavusoglu, B. and Dube, S. (2022). Does renewable energy use enhance exchange rate appreciation and stable rate of inflation? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 14185–14194. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-683790/v1
  • Djedaiet, A. (2023). Does environmental quality react asymmetrically to unemployment and inflation rates? African OPEC countries’ perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(46), 102418-102427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29621-3
  • Doruk, Ö.T. and Yavuz, H.B. (2018). The effect of the stabilization policies on economic growth in the post-1980 period in Turkey. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 8(15), 2237-2265. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.441770
  • Enders, W. and Jones, P. (2016). Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2014-0101
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
  • Fountas, S. and Karanasos, M. (2007). Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(2), 229-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2006.10.006
  • Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472. https://doi.org/10.1086/260579
  • Gençay, R., Gradojevic, N., Selçuk, F. and Whitcher, B. (2010). Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales. Quantitative Finance, 10(8), 895-915. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697680903460143
  • Gorus, M.S., Yilanci, V. and Kongkuah, M. (2023). FDI inflows-economic globalization nexus in ASEAN countries: The panel bootstrap causality test based on wavelet decomposition. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 30(2), 339-362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-022-09377-5
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
  • Ha, J., Tan, P.P. and Goh, K.L. (2018). Linear and nonlinear causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China: New evidence based on wavelet analysis. PLoS One 13(5) e0197785. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197785
  • Khan, I., Tan, D., Azam, W. and Tauseef, S. (2022). Alternate energy sources and environmental quality: The impact of inflation dynamics. Gondwana Research, 106, 51–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2021.12.011
  • Khan, M. (2019). Does macroeconomic instability cause environmental pollution? The case of Pakistan economy. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 14649–14659. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04804-z
  • Lucas, R.E. (1973). Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 326-334. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
  • Mbassi, C.M., Hyoba, S.E.C. and Shahbaz, M. (2023). Does monetary policy really matter for environmental protection? The case of inflation targeting. Research in Economics, 77(3), 427-452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2023.06.004
  • Mughal, N., Kashif, M., Arif, A., Guerrero, J.W.G., Nabua, W.C. and Niedbała, G. (2021). Dynamic effects of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on environmental pollution in ASEAN. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 65116-65126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15114-8
  • Nazlioglu, S., Gormus, N.A. and Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
  • Our World in Data. (2022). Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2
  • Pata, U.K., Kartal, M.T., Erdogan, S. and Sarkodie, S.A. (2023). The role of renewable and nuclear energy R&D expenditures and income on environmental quality in Germany: Scrutinizing the EKC and LCC hypotheses with smooth structural changes. Applied Energy, 342, 121138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121138
  • Pata, U.K., Yilanci, V., Zhang, Q. and Shah, S.A.R. (2022). Does financial development promote renewable energy consumption in the USA? Evidence from the Fourier-wavelet quantile causality test. Renewable Energy, 196, 432-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.07.008
  • Rakshit, B. and Neog, Y. (2021). Do macroeconomic uncertainty and financial development cause environmental degradation? Evidence from an emerging economy. International Journal of Social Economics, 48(9), 1264-1289. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-10-2020-0690
  • Rousseau, P.L. and Wachtel, P. (2002). Inflation thresholds and the finance–growth nexus. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 777-793. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00022-0
  • Semenova, A. (2023). Rising temperatures and rising prices: The inflationary impacts of climate change and the need for degrowth-based solutions to the ecological crisis. Globalizations, Advance online publication, doi:10.1080/14747731.2023.2222482
  • Setyadharma, A., Oktavilia, S., Wahyuningrum, I.F.S., Nikensari, S.I. and Saputra, A.M. (2021). Does inflation reduce air pollution? Evidence from Indonesia. E3S Web of Conferences, 317, 01068. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202131701068
  • Şanlı, D. and Gülbay Yiğiteli, N. (2023). Do economic complexity and macroeconomic stability asymmetrically affect carbon emissions in OECD? Evidence from nonlinear panel ARDL approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability, Advance online publication, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03866-x
  • Tahir, M., Rehman, Z. and Javed, F. (2022). Asymmetric effects of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility on environmental quality in the USA. Human Nature Journal of Social Sciences, 3(1), 31–43. Retrieved from https://hnpublisher.com/
  • Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
  • Ullah, S., Apergis, N., Usman, A. and Chishti, M.Z. (2020). Asymmetric effects of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility on environmental quality in Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 31892–31904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09258-2
  • Ullah, S., Ozturk, I. and Sohail, S. (2021). The asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on Pakistan’s environmental pollution. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 7450–7461. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-11093-4
  • Walden, A.T. (2001). Wavelet analysis of discrete time series. In C.Casacuberta, R.M. Miró-Roig, J. Verdera and S. Xambó-Descamps (Eds.), Progress in mathematics (pp. 627-641). Papers presented at the European Congress of Mathematics, Basel: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8266-8_56
  • World Bank. (2022a). Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
  • World Bank. (2022b). GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
  • World Bank. (2022c). Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2017) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/

Türkiye’de Enflasyon İstikrarsızlığı Çevre Kirliliğine Neden Olur mu? Fourier-Wavelet Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 4, 622 - 642, 30.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1353763

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisi GSYH'nın istikrarı, enflasyon istikrarı, büyüme oranı ve döviz kuru konusunda birçok makroekonomik sorunla karşı karşıya kalmıştır. Bu durum son dönemlerde özellikle Covid 19 salgını ve Rusya- Ukrayna savaşı gibi olumsuzluklarla daha da hissedilir hale gelmiştir. Böylelikle Türkiye’de enflasyon artmış ve daha istikrarsız bir görünüme sahip olmuştur. Bununla birlikte çevresel sorunları da giderek artmıştır. Bu bilgiler ışığında çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve finansal gelişmeyi kontrol değişkeni olarak dikkate alarak enflasyon istikrarsızlığı bağlamında CO2 emisyonları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini 1990-2021 dönemi için incelemektedir. Bu amaç için öncelikle seriler dalgacık dönüşümüne tabi tutulmuştur. Sonrasında dönüştürülmüş seriler Fourier TY ve Fractional Fourier TY nedensellik testleri ile kısa, orta ve uzun vadeli olarak analiz edilmiştir. Fourier nedensellik testinden elde edilen bulgular, enflasyon istikrarsızlığının kısa, orta ve uzun vadede çevre kirliliğini teşvik ettiğini göstermektedir. Şokların kalıcı olup olmadığını test etmek için kullanılan Kesirli Fourier nedensellik testine göre ise sadece orta vadede, enflasyon istikrarsızlığından çevre kirliliğine kalıcılık söz konusudur. Bu çalışma Türkiye örneğinde konuyu ele alan ilk çalışmadır.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad, W., Ullah, S. and Ozturk, I. (2021). Does inflation instability affect environmental pollution? Fresh evidence from Asian economies. Energy & Environment, 32(7), 1275–1291. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X20971804
  • Alola, A.A., Yalçiner, K. and Alola, U.V. (2019). Renewables, food (in) security, and inflation regimes in the coastline Mediterranean countries (CMCs): The environmental pros and cons. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(33), 34448–34458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06576-y
  • Andersson, F.N. (2016). Identifying and modelling cycles and long waves in economic time series. In J. Ljunberg (Eds.), Structural analysis and the process of economic development (pp. 54-75). UK: Routledge.
  • Baloch, M.A., Meng, F., Zhang, J. and Xu, Z. (2018). Financial instability and CO2 emissions: The case of Saudi Arabia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(26), 26030–26045. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2654-2
  • Bernanke, B.S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885568
  • Cagri, S., Yilanci, V., Ulucak, R. and Jones, K. (2021). Technology spillovers and sustainable environment : Evidence from time-series analyses with Fourier extension. Journal of Environmental Management, 294, 113033. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113033
  • Deka, A., Cavusoglu, B. and Dube, S. (2022). Does renewable energy use enhance exchange rate appreciation and stable rate of inflation? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 14185–14194. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-683790/v1
  • Djedaiet, A. (2023). Does environmental quality react asymmetrically to unemployment and inflation rates? African OPEC countries’ perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(46), 102418-102427. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29621-3
  • Doruk, Ö.T. and Yavuz, H.B. (2018). The effect of the stabilization policies on economic growth in the post-1980 period in Turkey. OPUS International Journal of Society Researches, 8(15), 2237-2265. https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.441770
  • Enders, W. and Jones, P. (2016). Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2014-0101
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D
  • Fountas, S. and Karanasos, M. (2007). Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(2), 229-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2006.10.006
  • Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472. https://doi.org/10.1086/260579
  • Gençay, R., Gradojevic, N., Selçuk, F. and Whitcher, B. (2010). Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales. Quantitative Finance, 10(8), 895-915. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697680903460143
  • Gorus, M.S., Yilanci, V. and Kongkuah, M. (2023). FDI inflows-economic globalization nexus in ASEAN countries: The panel bootstrap causality test based on wavelet decomposition. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 30(2), 339-362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-022-09377-5
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
  • Ha, J., Tan, P.P. and Goh, K.L. (2018). Linear and nonlinear causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China: New evidence based on wavelet analysis. PLoS One 13(5) e0197785. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0197785
  • Khan, I., Tan, D., Azam, W. and Tauseef, S. (2022). Alternate energy sources and environmental quality: The impact of inflation dynamics. Gondwana Research, 106, 51–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2021.12.011
  • Khan, M. (2019). Does macroeconomic instability cause environmental pollution? The case of Pakistan economy. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 14649–14659. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04804-z
  • Lucas, R.E. (1973). Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs. The American Economic Review, 63(3), 326-334. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
  • Mbassi, C.M., Hyoba, S.E.C. and Shahbaz, M. (2023). Does monetary policy really matter for environmental protection? The case of inflation targeting. Research in Economics, 77(3), 427-452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2023.06.004
  • Mughal, N., Kashif, M., Arif, A., Guerrero, J.W.G., Nabua, W.C. and Niedbała, G. (2021). Dynamic effects of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on environmental pollution in ASEAN. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 65116-65126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15114-8
  • Nazlioglu, S., Gormus, N.A. and Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
  • Our World in Data. (2022). Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2
  • Pata, U.K., Kartal, M.T., Erdogan, S. and Sarkodie, S.A. (2023). The role of renewable and nuclear energy R&D expenditures and income on environmental quality in Germany: Scrutinizing the EKC and LCC hypotheses with smooth structural changes. Applied Energy, 342, 121138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121138
  • Pata, U.K., Yilanci, V., Zhang, Q. and Shah, S.A.R. (2022). Does financial development promote renewable energy consumption in the USA? Evidence from the Fourier-wavelet quantile causality test. Renewable Energy, 196, 432-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.07.008
  • Rakshit, B. and Neog, Y. (2021). Do macroeconomic uncertainty and financial development cause environmental degradation? Evidence from an emerging economy. International Journal of Social Economics, 48(9), 1264-1289. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-10-2020-0690
  • Rousseau, P.L. and Wachtel, P. (2002). Inflation thresholds and the finance–growth nexus. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 777-793. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00022-0
  • Semenova, A. (2023). Rising temperatures and rising prices: The inflationary impacts of climate change and the need for degrowth-based solutions to the ecological crisis. Globalizations, Advance online publication, doi:10.1080/14747731.2023.2222482
  • Setyadharma, A., Oktavilia, S., Wahyuningrum, I.F.S., Nikensari, S.I. and Saputra, A.M. (2021). Does inflation reduce air pollution? Evidence from Indonesia. E3S Web of Conferences, 317, 01068. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202131701068
  • Şanlı, D. and Gülbay Yiğiteli, N. (2023). Do economic complexity and macroeconomic stability asymmetrically affect carbon emissions in OECD? Evidence from nonlinear panel ARDL approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability, Advance online publication, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03866-x
  • Tahir, M., Rehman, Z. and Javed, F. (2022). Asymmetric effects of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility on environmental quality in the USA. Human Nature Journal of Social Sciences, 3(1), 31–43. Retrieved from https://hnpublisher.com/
  • Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
  • Ullah, S., Apergis, N., Usman, A. and Chishti, M.Z. (2020). Asymmetric effects of inflation instability and GDP growth volatility on environmental quality in Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 31892–31904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09258-2
  • Ullah, S., Ozturk, I. and Sohail, S. (2021). The asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on Pakistan’s environmental pollution. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 7450–7461. doi:10.1007/s11356-020-11093-4
  • Walden, A.T. (2001). Wavelet analysis of discrete time series. In C.Casacuberta, R.M. Miró-Roig, J. Verdera and S. Xambó-Descamps (Eds.), Progress in mathematics (pp. 627-641). Papers presented at the European Congress of Mathematics, Basel: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8266-8_56
  • World Bank. (2022a). Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
  • World Bank. (2022b). GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
  • World Bank. (2022c). Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2017) [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Zaman Serileri Analizi, Enflasyon, Kalkınma Ekonomisi - Makro
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Cuma Demirtaş 0000-0002-1475-5530

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2023
Kabul Tarihi 20 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Demirtaş, C. (2023). Does Inflation Instability Cause Environmental Pollution in Türkiye? Evidence from the Fourier-Wavelet Causality Test. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(4), 622-642. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1353763