Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

The imports of intermediate goods, relative price and real effective exchange rate relationship: The case of Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 408 - 424, 30.10.2022
https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2022.8.3.002

Öz

In this study, the effect of relative prices and real effective exchange rate on imports of intermediate goods in Turkey is investigated for the period 2013M1-2020M2. Within the scope of the purpose, Granger causality, Toda and Yamamoto causality and Johansen cointegration tests are used in the analysis. According to the causality tests, no direct causality relationship is found between the variables. On the contrary, according to the cointegration test results, there is a relationship in both the long term and the short term. For both periods, a negative relationship was found between imports of intermediate goods and relative prices, and a positive relationship with the real effective exchange rate. Both findings show that Turkey should take measures in the context of foreign trade and exchange rate policies.

Kaynakça

  • Abumdallala, S. M. (2019). The Relationship Between Imports and Inflation in Palestine: Toda and Yamamoto Causality Analysis. International Journal of Business Administration, 10(2), 17-21.
  • Ahmed, R. R., Ghauri, S. P., Vveinhardt, J. and Streimikiene, D. (2018). An empirical analysis of export, import, and inflation: a case of Pakistan. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 21(3), 117-130.
  • Akal, M. (2008). Explaining investment and intermediate goods imports and estimating elasticities in Turkey. Zagreb International Review of Economics ve Business, 11(1), 111-123.
  • Aldan, A., Bozok, İ. and Gunay, M. (2012). Short run import dynamics in Turkey. Working Paper No. 12/25, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Ashra, S. (2002). Inflation and openness: a study of selected developing economies. Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. Working Paper, 84.
  • Aydın, M. F., Çıplak, U. and Yücel, M. E. (2004). Export supply and import demand models for the Turkish economy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, 4(09).
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Niroomand, F. (1998). Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall–Lerner condition revisited. Economics Letters, 61(1), 101-109.
  • Bayraktutan, Y. ve Arslan, İ. (2003). Türkiye’de döviz kuru, ithalat ve enflasyon ilişkisi: ekonometrik analiz (1980-2000). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 5(2), 89-104.
  • Chani, M. I. and Chaudhary, A. R. (2012). The role of expenditure components in determinantion of import demand: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 6(1), 35-52.
  • Cole, J. H. (1986). Imports and Domestic Inflation in Latin America. Studies in Economics and Finance.
  • Corrigan, T. D. (2005). The relationship between import prices and inflation in the United States. WCOB Faculty Publications, Paper 18, http://digitalcommons.sacredheart.edu/wcob_fac/18.
  • Çiftçi, D. D. (2011). Agrıcultural Imports Of Turkey (Doktora Tezi, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi).
  • Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O. and Öğünç, F. (2019). Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 9-19.
  • Dash, A. K. (2005). An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for India. In International Business Research Conference (pp. 1-19).
  • Dexter, A. S., Levi, M. D. and Nault, B. R. (2005). International trade and the connection between excess demand and inflation. Review of International Economics, 13(4), 699-708.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–72.
  • Domaç, İ. (2004). Explaining and forecasting inflation in Turkey. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (3287).
  • Erlat, G. and Erlat, H. (1991). An empirical study of Turkish export and import function. CBRT and METU, 2(1), 16-35.
  • Gedik, A. (2020). Türkiye de İthalat İhracat İle Enflasyon Arasında Nedensellik Analizi. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (19), 323-333.
  • Granger C. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relationships by Econometrics Models and Cross Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37, 425-435.
  • Islam, A. (2013). Impact of Inflation on Import: An Empirical Study. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 1(6), 299-309. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20130106.16.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254.
  • Johansen S (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press, New York
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: With Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2006). An aggregate import demand function for Turkey: a cointegration analysis. MPRA Paper No. 4260, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4260/.
  • Kotan, Z. and Saygılı, M. (1999). Estimating an import function for Turkey. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research Department.
  • Lokmanoğlu Aker, Ş. (2008). Major Determinants of Imports in Turkey. Turkish Studies, 9(1), 131-145. Doi: 10.1080/14683840701814059.
  • Mackinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A. and Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. Journal of Applied Econometrics, (14), 563-577.
  • Mihaljek, D. and Klau M. (2001). A Note on the Pass-Through from Exchange Rate and Foreign Price Changes to Inflation in Selected Emerging Market Economies, Bank of International Settlements Papers, No:8, 69-108.
  • Muktadir-Al-Mukit, D., Shafiullah, A. Z. M. and Ahmed, M. R. (2013). Inflation led import or import led inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh. Asian Business Review, 2(2), 65-69.
  • Munepapa, M. and Sheefeni, J. P. (2017). The impact of import on inflation in Namibia. European Journal of Business, Economics and Accountancy, 5(2), 42-51.
  • Narayan, S. and Narayan, P. K. (2005). An empirical analysis of Fiji's import demand function. Journal of Economic Studies, 32(2), 158-168.
  • Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69 (6), 1519–1554.
  • Odusanya, I. A. and Atanda, A. A. (2010). Analysis of Inflation and its Determinants in Nigeria. MPRA Paper No. 35837, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35837/ (Erişim Tarihi: 24.04.2021).
  • Ogbokor, C. A. and Sunde, T. (2011). Is Namibia's inflation import-driven? An econometric investigation. Journal of Development Alternatives and Area Studies, 30(1ve2).
  • Oktay, E. and Gözgör, G. (2013). Estimation of disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey. Economics Bulletin, 33(1), 575-585.
  • Onwuka, K. O. and Zoral, K. Y. (2009). Foreign direct investment and imports growth in Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 4(15), 2357-2380. . Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in a time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
  • Şahin, D. (2018). Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(18), 125-146.
  • Tang, T. C. (2003). An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function. China Economic Review, 14(2), 142-163.
  • Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possbly Integrated Process. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Ulke, V. and Ergun, U. (2011). Econometric Analysis of Import and Inflation Relationship in Turkey between 1995 and 2010. Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 1(2).
  • Wang, Y. H. and Lee, J. D. (2012). Estimating the import demand function for China. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2591-2596.

Ara malları ithalatı, göreceli fiyat ve reel efektif döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 408 - 424, 30.10.2022
https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2022.8.3.002

Öz

Bu çalışmada göreceli fiyatlar ve reel efektif döviz kurunun ara malı ithalatı üzerine olan etkisi Türkiye kapsamında 2013M1-2020-M2 dönemi için araştırılmaktadır. Amaç doğrultusunda analizde Granger nedensellik, Toda ve Yamamoto nedensellik ve Johansen eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmaktadır. Nedensellik testlerine göre değişkenler arasında doğrudan bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmemiştir. Bu durumun tersine, eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre ise hem uzun dönem hem de kısa dönemde ilişki bulunduğu saptanmıştır. Analizden elde edilen sonuçlara göre her iki dönem için de ara malı ithalatı ile göreceli fiyat arasında negatif, ara malı ithalatı ve reel efektif döviz kuru ile pozitif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. İki bulgu da Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ve döviz kuru politikaları bağlamında önlemler alması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Abumdallala, S. M. (2019). The Relationship Between Imports and Inflation in Palestine: Toda and Yamamoto Causality Analysis. International Journal of Business Administration, 10(2), 17-21.
  • Ahmed, R. R., Ghauri, S. P., Vveinhardt, J. and Streimikiene, D. (2018). An empirical analysis of export, import, and inflation: a case of Pakistan. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 21(3), 117-130.
  • Akal, M. (2008). Explaining investment and intermediate goods imports and estimating elasticities in Turkey. Zagreb International Review of Economics ve Business, 11(1), 111-123.
  • Aldan, A., Bozok, İ. and Gunay, M. (2012). Short run import dynamics in Turkey. Working Paper No. 12/25, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Ashra, S. (2002). Inflation and openness: a study of selected developing economies. Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. Working Paper, 84.
  • Aydın, M. F., Çıplak, U. and Yücel, M. E. (2004). Export supply and import demand models for the Turkish economy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, 4(09).
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Niroomand, F. (1998). Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall–Lerner condition revisited. Economics Letters, 61(1), 101-109.
  • Bayraktutan, Y. ve Arslan, İ. (2003). Türkiye’de döviz kuru, ithalat ve enflasyon ilişkisi: ekonometrik analiz (1980-2000). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 5(2), 89-104.
  • Chani, M. I. and Chaudhary, A. R. (2012). The role of expenditure components in determinantion of import demand: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS), 6(1), 35-52.
  • Cole, J. H. (1986). Imports and Domestic Inflation in Latin America. Studies in Economics and Finance.
  • Corrigan, T. D. (2005). The relationship between import prices and inflation in the United States. WCOB Faculty Publications, Paper 18, http://digitalcommons.sacredheart.edu/wcob_fac/18.
  • Çiftçi, D. D. (2011). Agrıcultural Imports Of Turkey (Doktora Tezi, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi).
  • Çulha, O. Y., Eren, O. and Öğünç, F. (2019). Import demand function for Turkey. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 9-19.
  • Dash, A. K. (2005). An econometric estimation of the aggregate import demand function for India. In International Business Research Conference (pp. 1-19).
  • Dexter, A. S., Levi, M. D. and Nault, B. R. (2005). International trade and the connection between excess demand and inflation. Review of International Economics, 13(4), 699-708.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–72.
  • Domaç, İ. (2004). Explaining and forecasting inflation in Turkey. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (3287).
  • Erlat, G. and Erlat, H. (1991). An empirical study of Turkish export and import function. CBRT and METU, 2(1), 16-35.
  • Gedik, A. (2020). Türkiye de İthalat İhracat İle Enflasyon Arasında Nedensellik Analizi. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (19), 323-333.
  • Granger C. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relationships by Econometrics Models and Cross Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37, 425-435.
  • Islam, A. (2013). Impact of Inflation on Import: An Empirical Study. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 1(6), 299-309. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20130106.16.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–254.
  • Johansen S (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford University Press, New York
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: With Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2006). An aggregate import demand function for Turkey: a cointegration analysis. MPRA Paper No. 4260, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4260/.
  • Kotan, Z. and Saygılı, M. (1999). Estimating an import function for Turkey. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research Department.
  • Lokmanoğlu Aker, Ş. (2008). Major Determinants of Imports in Turkey. Turkish Studies, 9(1), 131-145. Doi: 10.1080/14683840701814059.
  • Mackinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A. and Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. Journal of Applied Econometrics, (14), 563-577.
  • Mihaljek, D. and Klau M. (2001). A Note on the Pass-Through from Exchange Rate and Foreign Price Changes to Inflation in Selected Emerging Market Economies, Bank of International Settlements Papers, No:8, 69-108.
  • Muktadir-Al-Mukit, D., Shafiullah, A. Z. M. and Ahmed, M. R. (2013). Inflation led import or import led inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh. Asian Business Review, 2(2), 65-69.
  • Munepapa, M. and Sheefeni, J. P. (2017). The impact of import on inflation in Namibia. European Journal of Business, Economics and Accountancy, 5(2), 42-51.
  • Narayan, S. and Narayan, P. K. (2005). An empirical analysis of Fiji's import demand function. Journal of Economic Studies, 32(2), 158-168.
  • Ng, S. and Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69 (6), 1519–1554.
  • Odusanya, I. A. and Atanda, A. A. (2010). Analysis of Inflation and its Determinants in Nigeria. MPRA Paper No. 35837, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35837/ (Erişim Tarihi: 24.04.2021).
  • Ogbokor, C. A. and Sunde, T. (2011). Is Namibia's inflation import-driven? An econometric investigation. Journal of Development Alternatives and Area Studies, 30(1ve2).
  • Oktay, E. and Gözgör, G. (2013). Estimation of disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey. Economics Bulletin, 33(1), 575-585.
  • Onwuka, K. O. and Zoral, K. Y. (2009). Foreign direct investment and imports growth in Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 4(15), 2357-2380. . Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in a time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
  • Şahin, D. (2018). Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(18), 125-146.
  • Tang, T. C. (2003). An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function. China Economic Review, 14(2), 142-163.
  • Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possbly Integrated Process. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Ulke, V. and Ergun, U. (2011). Econometric Analysis of Import and Inflation Relationship in Turkey between 1995 and 2010. Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 1(2).
  • Wang, Y. H. and Lee, J. D. (2012). Estimating the import demand function for China. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2591-2596.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Burcu Hiçyılmaz 0000-0003-3501-2012

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ekim 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Hiçyılmaz, B. (2022). Ara malları ithalatı, göreceli fiyat ve reel efektif döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Gazi İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 8(3), 408-424. https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2022.8.3.002
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