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Do democracy level and economic freedoms affect a country’s credit ratings? an application on BRICS-T countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 581 - 595, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1185899

Öz

ught that factors such as the level of democracy and economic freedoms may also have an impact. The study was carried out to determine whether the level of democracy and economic freedoms affect the sovereign credit ratings given by credit rating agencies in BRICS-T (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Türkiye) countries. For this purpose, the grades given to the BRICS-T countries by Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, which are called “The Big Three Credit Rating Agencies” that control almost the entire market as the dependent variable, have been digitized with the “Comparative Rating Index for Sovereigns” (CRIS) and taken as an arithmetic average. “Democracy Quality” and “Economic Freedom Index”, which are frequently used in the literature, were used to represent the level of democracy and economic freedoms and “Economic Growth”, “Inflation”, and “Reserves” as control variables. In the study in which Panel Data Analysis was used, the "fixed effects model" was applied due to the tests for selecting the appropriate model. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that all the independent variables had a statistically significant positive effect on the sovereign credit ratings except inflation.

Kaynakça

  • Aixalá, J. ve Gema F. (2009). Economic freedom, civil liberties, political rights and growth: a causality analysis. Spanish Economic Review, 11, 165–78. doi: 10.1007/s10108-008-9050-x
  • Afonso, A. (2003). Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: evidence of the two leading agencies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 56–74. doi:10.1007/bf02751590
  • Archer, C. C., Biglaiser, G. ve DeRouen, K. (2007). Sovereign bonds and the “democratic advantage”: does regime type affect credit rating agency ratings in the developing world?. International Organization, 61(2), 341-365. doi:10.1017/S0020818307070129
  • Arlı, O.E., Poyraz, E., ve Özkoç, H.H. (2019). Demokrasinin sermaye piyasaları üzerinde etkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine bir inceleme. Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(20). doi:10.26466/opus.581662
  • Barta, Z. ve Makszin, K. (2020). The politics of creditworthiness: political and policy commentary in sovereign credit rating reports. Journal of Public Policy, 41(2), 307-330. doi:10.1017/S0143814X20000033
  • Basu, K., Bisen, A., De, S.,Ghosh R. ve Shweta (2012). Comparative rating index for sovereigns: a new index of sovereign credit ratings and an analysis of how nations fared over the last six years, 1-20. Erişim adresi: https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/CRIS_report_SCR28032012.pdf
  • Belasen, A. R., Hafer, R. W. ve Jategaonkar, S. P. (2015). Economic freedom and state bond ratings. Contemporary Economic Policy, 33(4), 668-677. doi: 10.1111/coep.12098
  • Boudriga, A. ve Ghardallou, W. (2012). Democracy and financial development: does the institutional quality matter. Erişim adresi: http://data.leo-univ-orleans.fr/media/seminars/41/WP_147.pdf
  • Burnie D. A. (2021). Democracy, dictatorship, and economic freedom signals in stock market. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(1), 375-390. doi:10.1002/ijfe.1794
  • Corporate Finance Institute (2022). Credit rating agency. Erişim adresi: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/rating-agency/
  • Dadush, U. ve Dasgupta D. (2001). The benefits and risks of capital account opening in developing countries. D. Dasgupta., M. Uzan ve D. Wilson (Ed.). Capital flows without crisis? Reconciling capital mobility and economic stability (s.384) içinde. New York and London: Routledge
  • Dimitrijevic, A. (2012). Ülkelerin kredi notunu nasıl belirliyoruz?. Standard & Poor’s Mc Graw Hill. Erişim adresi: http://docplayer.biz.tr/241357-ulkelerin-kredi-notunu-nasilbelirliyoruzmart-2012.html
  • Freaser Institute- Economic Freedoom Index- Economic Freedoom of the World. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/economic-freedom
  • Gaillard, N.(2009). The determinants of Moody’s sub-sovereign ratings. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 31, 194-209. Erişim adresi: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228626487
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
  • Hristova, K. D. (2012). Does economic freedom determine economic growth? A discussion of the heritage foundation’s index of economic freedom. (Published Ph.D. Dissertation). Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, MA, USA.
  • Kabadayı, B. (2012). Ülke kredi notlarını etkileyen faktörler: yükselen ekonomiler ve Türkiye örneği. (Yayınlanmış Doktora Tezi). Atatürk Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzurum.
  • Kabadayı, B. ve Çelik A.A. (2015). Determinants of sovereign ratings in emerging countries: A qualitative, dependent variable panel data analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5, 656–62. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/363044
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. ve Mastruzzi, M., (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5430, Erişim adresi: SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1682130
  • Lehkonen, H. ve Heimonen, K. (2015). Democracy, political risk and stock market performance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 59, 77-99. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.002
  • Miletkov, M. ve Wintoki M.B. (2009). Legal institutions, democracy and financial sector development. Mark H., Kose J., ve Anil K. M., (Ed.) Corporate Governance and Firm Performance (s. 171-196) içinde. Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Mulder, C. ve Perrelli, R. (2001). Foreign currency credit ratings for emerging market economies. IMF Working Paper, 01/191. Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp01191.pdf
  • Peev, E. ve Dennis C. Mueller. (2012). Democracy, economic freedom and growth in transition economies. Kyklos, 65, 371–407. doi: 10.1111/kykl.2012.65.issue-3
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CWPE 0435. Erişim adresi: https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
  • Razmi M. J. ve Refaei R. (2013). The effect of trade openness and economic freedom on economic growth: the case of middle east and east asian countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 376-385. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/362773
  • Roychoudhury, S. ve Lawson, R. A. (2010). Economic freedom and sovereign credit ratings and default risk. Journal of Financial Economic Policy. doi: 10.1108/17576381011070201
  • Sonenshine, R. ve Kumari, S.(2022). The differential impact of political risk factors on emerging market bond spreads and credit rating outlooks. Journal of Economics and Business, doi: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2022.106066
  • Sychowiec, M. (2021). Does political ideology affect a government’s credit rating? the evidence on parties’ socio‑cultural positions in european countries. Comparative European Politics, 19, 323-359. doi: 10.1057/s41295-021-00236-7
  • The Economist (2022). The economist intelligence unit, Erişim adresi: Democracy index 2020 in sickness and in health? Erişim adresi: https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020/
  • The World Bank (2022). Erişim adresi: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx
  • Tunçsiper, B. ve Biçen, Ö.F. (2014). Ekonomik özgürlükler ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin panel regresyon yöntemiyle incelenmesi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(2), 25-45. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/oguiibf/issue/5711/76456
  • Vergili, G. (2016). Kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarına eleştirel bir bakış. Saarbrücken: Türkiye Alim Kitapları.
  • Yang, B. (2011). Does democracy foster financial development? An empirical analysis. Economics Letters, 112(3), 262-265. Erişim adresi: https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeecolet/v_3a112_3ay_3a2011_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a262-265.htm
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2013). İleri panel veri yöntemleri. Çağlayan E., (Ed.). Ekonometriye giriş modern yaklaşım cilt 2 (ss.481-505) içinde. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Zouhaier, H. ve Karim, K.M. (2012). Democracy, investment and economic growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3), 233-240. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31954/351838

Demokrasi düzeyi ve ekonomik özgürlükler ülke kredi notları üzerinde etkili midir? BRICS-T ülkeleri üzerine bir uygulama

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 581 - 595, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1185899

Öz

Ülke kredi notlarını etkileyen birçok makroekonomik ve finansal faktörün dışında demokrasi düzeyi ve ekonomik özgürlükler gibi faktörlerin de etkisinin olabileceği düşünülmektedir. Çalışma demokrasi düzeyinin ve ekonomik özgürlüklerin BRICS-T (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye) ülkelerinde kredi derecelendirme kuruluşları tarafından verilen ülke kredi notlarına etkisi olup olmadığının tespit edilmesi amacıyla yapılmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bağımlı değişken olarak piyasanın neredeyse tamamını kontrol eden “Üç Büyük Kredi Derecelendirme Kuruluşu” olan Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s ve Fitch tarafından BRICS-T ülkelerine verilen harf notları “Karşılaştırmalı Ülke Derecelendirme İndeksi” (KÜDİ) ile sayısallaştırılmış ve bunların aritmetik ortalaması alınmıştır. Demokrasi düzeyi ve ekonomik özgürlükleri temsilen literatürde sıklıkla kullanılan “Demokrasi Kalitesi” ve “Ekonomik Özgürlükler İndeksi”, kontrol değişkenleri olarak da “Ekonomik Büyüme”, “Enflasyon” ve “Rezervler” yer almıştır. Panel Veri Analizinin kullanıldığı çalışmada doğru modelin seçimi için yapılan testler sonucunda “sabit etkiler modeli” uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda enflasyon hariç tüm bağımsız değişkenlerin ülke kredi notları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu saptanmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Aixalá, J. ve Gema F. (2009). Economic freedom, civil liberties, political rights and growth: a causality analysis. Spanish Economic Review, 11, 165–78. doi: 10.1007/s10108-008-9050-x
  • Afonso, A. (2003). Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: evidence of the two leading agencies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 56–74. doi:10.1007/bf02751590
  • Archer, C. C., Biglaiser, G. ve DeRouen, K. (2007). Sovereign bonds and the “democratic advantage”: does regime type affect credit rating agency ratings in the developing world?. International Organization, 61(2), 341-365. doi:10.1017/S0020818307070129
  • Arlı, O.E., Poyraz, E., ve Özkoç, H.H. (2019). Demokrasinin sermaye piyasaları üzerinde etkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine bir inceleme. Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(20). doi:10.26466/opus.581662
  • Barta, Z. ve Makszin, K. (2020). The politics of creditworthiness: political and policy commentary in sovereign credit rating reports. Journal of Public Policy, 41(2), 307-330. doi:10.1017/S0143814X20000033
  • Basu, K., Bisen, A., De, S.,Ghosh R. ve Shweta (2012). Comparative rating index for sovereigns: a new index of sovereign credit ratings and an analysis of how nations fared over the last six years, 1-20. Erişim adresi: https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/CRIS_report_SCR28032012.pdf
  • Belasen, A. R., Hafer, R. W. ve Jategaonkar, S. P. (2015). Economic freedom and state bond ratings. Contemporary Economic Policy, 33(4), 668-677. doi: 10.1111/coep.12098
  • Boudriga, A. ve Ghardallou, W. (2012). Democracy and financial development: does the institutional quality matter. Erişim adresi: http://data.leo-univ-orleans.fr/media/seminars/41/WP_147.pdf
  • Burnie D. A. (2021). Democracy, dictatorship, and economic freedom signals in stock market. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(1), 375-390. doi:10.1002/ijfe.1794
  • Corporate Finance Institute (2022). Credit rating agency. Erişim adresi: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/rating-agency/
  • Dadush, U. ve Dasgupta D. (2001). The benefits and risks of capital account opening in developing countries. D. Dasgupta., M. Uzan ve D. Wilson (Ed.). Capital flows without crisis? Reconciling capital mobility and economic stability (s.384) içinde. New York and London: Routledge
  • Dimitrijevic, A. (2012). Ülkelerin kredi notunu nasıl belirliyoruz?. Standard & Poor’s Mc Graw Hill. Erişim adresi: http://docplayer.biz.tr/241357-ulkelerin-kredi-notunu-nasilbelirliyoruzmart-2012.html
  • Freaser Institute- Economic Freedoom Index- Economic Freedoom of the World. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/economic-freedom
  • Gaillard, N.(2009). The determinants of Moody’s sub-sovereign ratings. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 31, 194-209. Erişim adresi: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228626487
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
  • Hristova, K. D. (2012). Does economic freedom determine economic growth? A discussion of the heritage foundation’s index of economic freedom. (Published Ph.D. Dissertation). Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, MA, USA.
  • Kabadayı, B. (2012). Ülke kredi notlarını etkileyen faktörler: yükselen ekonomiler ve Türkiye örneği. (Yayınlanmış Doktora Tezi). Atatürk Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzurum.
  • Kabadayı, B. ve Çelik A.A. (2015). Determinants of sovereign ratings in emerging countries: A qualitative, dependent variable panel data analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5, 656–62. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/363044
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. ve Mastruzzi, M., (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5430, Erişim adresi: SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1682130
  • Lehkonen, H. ve Heimonen, K. (2015). Democracy, political risk and stock market performance. Journal of International Money and Finance, 59, 77-99. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.002
  • Miletkov, M. ve Wintoki M.B. (2009). Legal institutions, democracy and financial sector development. Mark H., Kose J., ve Anil K. M., (Ed.) Corporate Governance and Firm Performance (s. 171-196) içinde. Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Mulder, C. ve Perrelli, R. (2001). Foreign currency credit ratings for emerging market economies. IMF Working Paper, 01/191. Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp01191.pdf
  • Peev, E. ve Dennis C. Mueller. (2012). Democracy, economic freedom and growth in transition economies. Kyklos, 65, 371–407. doi: 10.1111/kykl.2012.65.issue-3
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CWPE 0435. Erişim adresi: https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
  • Razmi M. J. ve Refaei R. (2013). The effect of trade openness and economic freedom on economic growth: the case of middle east and east asian countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 376-385. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/362773
  • Roychoudhury, S. ve Lawson, R. A. (2010). Economic freedom and sovereign credit ratings and default risk. Journal of Financial Economic Policy. doi: 10.1108/17576381011070201
  • Sonenshine, R. ve Kumari, S.(2022). The differential impact of political risk factors on emerging market bond spreads and credit rating outlooks. Journal of Economics and Business, doi: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2022.106066
  • Sychowiec, M. (2021). Does political ideology affect a government’s credit rating? the evidence on parties’ socio‑cultural positions in european countries. Comparative European Politics, 19, 323-359. doi: 10.1057/s41295-021-00236-7
  • The Economist (2022). The economist intelligence unit, Erişim adresi: Democracy index 2020 in sickness and in health? Erişim adresi: https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020/
  • The World Bank (2022). Erişim adresi: https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx
  • Tunçsiper, B. ve Biçen, Ö.F. (2014). Ekonomik özgürlükler ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin panel regresyon yöntemiyle incelenmesi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(2), 25-45. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/oguiibf/issue/5711/76456
  • Vergili, G. (2016). Kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarına eleştirel bir bakış. Saarbrücken: Türkiye Alim Kitapları.
  • Yang, B. (2011). Does democracy foster financial development? An empirical analysis. Economics Letters, 112(3), 262-265. Erişim adresi: https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeeecolet/v_3a112_3ay_3a2011_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a262-265.htm
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2013). İleri panel veri yöntemleri. Çağlayan E., (Ed.). Ekonometriye giriş modern yaklaşım cilt 2 (ss.481-505) içinde. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Zouhaier, H. ve Karim, K.M. (2012). Democracy, investment and economic growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3), 233-240. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31954/351838
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Gizem Vergili 0000-0003-1125-1772

Mehmet Sinan Çelik 0000-0002-3102-406X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 7 Ekim 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Vergili, G., & Çelik, M. S. (2022). Demokrasi düzeyi ve ekonomik özgürlükler ülke kredi notları üzerinde etkili midir? BRICS-T ülkeleri üzerine bir uygulama. Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 581-595. https://doi.org/10.17218/hititsbd.1185899
                                                     Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.