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Graphical Causality Test Approach to the Relationship Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Foreign Trade Balance and Financial Development

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 73 Sayı: 1, 203 - 230, 26.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relationships among economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, and foreign trade for 30 developing countries by employing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and truncating LASSO (KLASSO) graphical Granger causality (GGN) approaches. The results of the KLASSO GGN test show a unidirectional causality relationship to exist from economic growth to the trade balance, while the findings of the LASSO GGN test indicate a bidirectional causality to exist between these two series. The study has also determined a unidirectional causality to exist from financial development and energy consumption to economic growth. Overall, the empirical findings support the growth hypothesis and the demand-following hypothesis. Evidence has also been obtained showing economic growth to be an important factor affecting the change in the foreign trade balance among the examined country group and period (1990-2019).

Kaynakça

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  • Apergis, N., Payne, J.E, Menyah, K. & Wolde-Rufae, Y. (2010). On The Causal Dynamics Between Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, and Economic Growth. Ecological Economics, 69, 2255-2260. google scholar
  • Apergis, N. & Payne, J.E. (2011). The Renewable Energy Consumption-Growth Nexus in Central America. Applied Energy, 88(1), 343-347. google scholar
  • Arnold, A., Liu, Y. & Abe, N. (2007). Temporal Causal Modeling with Graphical Granger Methods. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 66-75, San Jose, California, USA. google scholar
  • Asghar, N. & Hussain, Z. (2014). Financial Development, Trade, Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries Recent Evidence from Panel Data. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 52(2), 99-126. google scholar
  • Atindehou, R., Gueyie, J.P. & Amenounve, E.K. (2005). Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Western Africa. Applied Financial Economics, 15(11), 777-790. google scholar
  • Aydın, F.F. (2010). Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 35, 317-340. google scholar
  • Bahadori, M. T., & Liu, Y. (2013, May). An examination of practical granger causality inference. In Proceedings of the 2013 SIAM International Conference on data Mining (pp. 467-475). Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. google scholar
  • Bajwa, S. & Siddiqi, M.W. (2011). Trade Openness and its Effects on Economic Growth in Selected South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Study. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 5(2), 212-217. google scholar
  • Belke, A., Dobnik, F. & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights into The Cointegration Relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782-789. google scholar
  • Bojanic, A.N. (2012). The Impact of Financial Development and Trade on The Economic Growth of Bolivia. Journal of Applied Economics, 15(1), 51-70. google scholar
  • Boutabba, M.A. (2014). The Impact of Financial Development, Income, Energy and Trade on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from The Indian Economy. Economic Modelling, 40, 33-41. google scholar
  • Calderon, C. & Liu, L. (2003). The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334. google scholar
  • Chang, T., Chu, H.P. & Chen, W.Y. (2013). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in 12 Asian Countries: Panel Data Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 20(3), 282-287. google scholar
  • De Leeuw, J. (1994). Block-Relaxation Algorithms in Statistics. In Information System and Data Analysis, 308-325, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. google scholar
  • Dinçer, G. (2014). Dış Ticaret Kuramında Çekim Modeli. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 24(88), 1-34. google scholar
  • Eichler, M. (2005). A Graphical Approach for Evaluating Effective Connectivity in Neural Systems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 360(1457), 953-967. google scholar
  • Eroğlu, İ., & Yeter, F. (2021). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Nedensellik Analizi. JOEEP:Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 6(2), 272-286. google scholar
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  • Fatai, K., Oxley, L. & Scrimgeour, F.G. (2004). Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(3-4), 431-445. google scholar
  • Fowowe, B. (2012). Energy Consumption and Real GDP: Panel Co-Integration and Causality Tests for Sub-Saharan African Countries. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 23(1), 8-14. google scholar
  • Francis, B.M., Moseley, L. & Iyare S.O. (2007). Energy Consumption and Projected Growth in Selected Caribbean Countries. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1224-1232. google scholar
  • Fuinhas, J.A. & Marques, A.C. (2012). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach (1965-2009). Energy Econmics, 34(2), 511-517. google scholar
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  • Güzel, İ., & Oluç, İ. (2021). Ekonomik Büyüme-Finansal Gelişme İlişkisinin Ek Değişkenlerle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 12(1), 57-73. google scholar
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Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 73 Sayı: 1, 203 - 230, 26.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, gelişmekte olan 30 ülke özelinde ekonomik büyüme ile enerji tüketimi, finansal gelişme ve dış ticareti dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Analizde LASSO ile Kesik LASSO(KLASSO) Grafiksel Granger Nedensellik(GGN) yaklaşımlarından yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlarda, KLASSO GGN testi ekonomik büyümeden dış ticaret dengesine doğru tek yönlü, LASSO GGN testi ise bu iki değişken arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu sonucunu vermiştir. Bununla birlikte iki testin bulgularında, nedensellik ilişkisinin finansal gelişme ile enerji tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular enerji tüketimi-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinde büyüme hipotezini, finansal gelişme-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinde ise talep takipli hipotezi desteklemektedir. Buna ilaveten incelenen ülke grubu ve dönemde (1990-2019) ekonomik büyümenin dış ticaret dengesinin değişimi üzerinde etkisi olan önemli bir faktör olduğuna dair kanıtlar elde edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Al-mulali, U., Fereidoun, H.G. Lee, J.Y. & Sab, C.H.B.C. (2013). Examining The Bi-Directional Long Run Relationship Between Renewable Energy Consumption and GDP Growth. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 22, 209-222. google scholar
  • Apergis, N., Payne, J.E, Menyah, K. & Wolde-Rufae, Y. (2010). On The Causal Dynamics Between Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Renewable Energy, and Economic Growth. Ecological Economics, 69, 2255-2260. google scholar
  • Apergis, N. & Payne, J.E. (2011). The Renewable Energy Consumption-Growth Nexus in Central America. Applied Energy, 88(1), 343-347. google scholar
  • Arnold, A., Liu, Y. & Abe, N. (2007). Temporal Causal Modeling with Graphical Granger Methods. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 66-75, San Jose, California, USA. google scholar
  • Asghar, N. & Hussain, Z. (2014). Financial Development, Trade, Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries Recent Evidence from Panel Data. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 52(2), 99-126. google scholar
  • Atindehou, R., Gueyie, J.P. & Amenounve, E.K. (2005). Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Western Africa. Applied Financial Economics, 15(11), 777-790. google scholar
  • Aydın, F.F. (2010). Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 35, 317-340. google scholar
  • Bahadori, M. T., & Liu, Y. (2013, May). An examination of practical granger causality inference. In Proceedings of the 2013 SIAM International Conference on data Mining (pp. 467-475). Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. google scholar
  • Bajwa, S. & Siddiqi, M.W. (2011). Trade Openness and its Effects on Economic Growth in Selected South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Study. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 5(2), 212-217. google scholar
  • Belke, A., Dobnik, F. & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights into The Cointegration Relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782-789. google scholar
  • Bojanic, A.N. (2012). The Impact of Financial Development and Trade on The Economic Growth of Bolivia. Journal of Applied Economics, 15(1), 51-70. google scholar
  • Boutabba, M.A. (2014). The Impact of Financial Development, Income, Energy and Trade on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from The Indian Economy. Economic Modelling, 40, 33-41. google scholar
  • Calderon, C. & Liu, L. (2003). The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334. google scholar
  • Chang, T., Chu, H.P. & Chen, W.Y. (2013). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in 12 Asian Countries: Panel Data Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 20(3), 282-287. google scholar
  • De Leeuw, J. (1994). Block-Relaxation Algorithms in Statistics. In Information System and Data Analysis, 308-325, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. google scholar
  • Dinçer, G. (2014). Dış Ticaret Kuramında Çekim Modeli. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 24(88), 1-34. google scholar
  • Eichler, M. (2005). A Graphical Approach for Evaluating Effective Connectivity in Neural Systems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 360(1457), 953-967. google scholar
  • Eroğlu, İ., & Yeter, F. (2021). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Nedensellik Analizi. JOEEP:Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 6(2), 272-286. google scholar
  • Eser, Y.L. ve Genç, M.C. (2010). Kamu Büyüklüğü ve Kişi Başına Gelir Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1968- 2005). Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 47(541), 61-70. google scholar
  • Esseghir A. & Khouni, L.H. (2014). Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Sustainable Development: The Case of The Union for The Mediterranean Countries. Energy, (71), 218-225. google scholar
  • Fatai, K, Oxley, L. & Scrimgeour, F. (2002). Energy Consumption and Employment in New Zealand: Searching for Causality. In Proceedings of the paper presented at NZAE conference, 26-28, Wellington. google scholar
  • Fatai, K., Oxley, L. & Scrimgeour, F.G. (2004). Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(3-4), 431-445. google scholar
  • Fowowe, B. (2012). Energy Consumption and Real GDP: Panel Co-Integration and Causality Tests for Sub-Saharan African Countries. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 23(1), 8-14. google scholar
  • Francis, B.M., Moseley, L. & Iyare S.O. (2007). Energy Consumption and Projected Growth in Selected Caribbean Countries. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1224-1232. google scholar
  • Fuinhas, J.A. & Marques, A.C. (2012). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach (1965-2009). Energy Econmics, 34(2), 511-517. google scholar
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. google scholar
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of econometrics, 70(1), 99-126. google scholar
  • Güzel, İ., & Oluç, İ. (2021). Ekonomik Büyüme-Finansal Gelişme İlişkisinin Ek Değişkenlerle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 12(1), 57-73. google scholar
  • Halicioglu F. (2009). An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37, 1156-64. google scholar
  • Hossain, M. S. (2011). Panel Estimation for CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Urbanization of Newly Industrialized Countries. Energy Policy, 39(11), 6991-6999. google scholar
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. google scholar
  • Intisar, R. A., Yaseen, M. R., Kousar, R., Usman, M. & Makhdum, M. S.A. (2020). Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries. Sustainability, 12(7), 1-19. google scholar
  • Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. & Ağır, H. (2014). Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 8(1), 63-86. google scholar
  • Kaushal, L.A. & Pathak, N. (2015). The Causal Relationship among Economic Growth, Financial Development and Trade Openess in Indian Economy. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), 5-22. google scholar
  • Khan, M.A. & Qayyum, A. (2007). Dynamic Modelling of Energy and Growth in South Asia. The Pakistan Development Review, 46(4), 481-498. google scholar
  • King, R.G. & Levine, R. (1993). Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 513-542. google scholar
  • Konya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992. google scholar
  • Köstekçi, A. & Yıldız, F. (2019). Kamu Borç Yönetimi Türkiye ve OECD Ülke Uygulamaları, Ekin Yayınevi, Bursa. google scholar
  • Lean, H.H. & Smyth, R. (2010). CO2 Emissions, Electricity Consumption and Output in ASEAN. Applied Energy, 87(6), 1858-1864. google scholar
  • Lee, C.C. (2005). Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A Cointegrated Panel Analysis. Energy Economics, 27(3), 415-427. google scholar
  • Lee C.C. & Lee, J.D. (2010). A Panel Data Analysis of the Demand for Total Energy and Electricity in OECD Countries. The Energy Journal, 31(1), 1-23. google scholar
  • Levine, R., Loayza, N. & Beck, T. (2000). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46, 31-77. google scholar
  • Levine R. & Zervos, S. (1996). Stock Market Development And Long-Run Growth. World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 323-339. google scholar
  • Levine R. & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 537-558. google scholar
  • Lozano, A.C., Abe, N., Liu, Y. & Rosset, S. (2009). Grouped Graphical Granger Modeling for Gene Expression Regulatory Networks Discovery. Bioinformatics, 25(12), i110-i118. google scholar
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer, Berlin. google scholar
  • Maddala, G.S. & Wu, S. (1999) "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652. google scholar
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015. google scholar
  • McKinnon, R.I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. google scholar
  • Menegaki, A.N. & Tuğcu, C.T. (2016). The Sensitivity of Growth, Conservation, Feedback & Neutrality Hypotheses to Sustainability Accounting. Energy for Sustainable Development, 34, 77-87. google scholar
  • Mercan, M. ve Peker, O. (2013). Finansal Gelişmenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(1), 93-120. google scholar
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Toplam 77 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Abdullah Göv 0000-0001-9400-6275

Veli Yılancı 0000-0001-5738-690X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Haziran 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 21 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 73 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Göv, A., & Yılancı, V. (2023). Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 73(1), 203-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588
AMA Göv A, Yılancı V. Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Haziran 2023;73(1):203-230. doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588
Chicago Göv, Abdullah, ve Veli Yılancı. “Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi Ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73, sy. 1 (Haziran 2023): 203-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588.
EndNote Göv A, Yılancı V (01 Haziran 2023) Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73 1 203–230.
IEEE A. Göv ve V. Yılancı, “Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 1, ss. 203–230, 2023, doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588.
ISNAD Göv, Abdullah - Yılancı, Veli. “Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi Ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 73/1 (Haziran 2023), 203-230. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588.
JAMA Göv A, Yılancı V. Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73:203–230.
MLA Göv, Abdullah ve Veli Yılancı. “Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi Ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 73, sy. 1, 2023, ss. 203-30, doi:10.26650/ISTJECON2022-1164588.
Vancouver Göv A, Yılancı V. Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisine Grafiksel Nedensellik Testi Yaklaşımı. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2023;73(1):203-30.