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Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 37 - 60, 30.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1104822

Öz

Bu çalışmada, üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE), kur, faiz ve gelirin konut satışlarına etkisi Türkiye örneğinde incelenmiştir. 2013:M1-2021:M10 dönemini kapsayan analiz Sınır Testi (ARDL) yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulgularına göre, ÜFE ve kurlar konut satışlarını pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Buna göre ÜFE %10 arttığında konut satışları %7 oranında artmaktadır. Kurlar %10 arttığında ise konut satışları %4 oranında artmaktadır. Konut kredi faiz oranları ise beklendiği gibi konut satışlarını negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Konut kredi faiz oranları %10 arttığında konut satışları %0.1 oranında azalmaktadır.

Kaynakça

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Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and Income on House Sales: a Case of Turkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 37 - 60, 30.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1104822

Öz

In this study, the effects of the producer price index (PPI), exchange rate, interest, and income on house sales were examined in the case of Turkey. The study was conducted using the Boundary Test (ARDL) method of analysis and spanned the period 2013:M1-2021:M10. According to the empirical findings of the study, PPI and exchange rates have a positive effect on house sales. As a result, when PPI increases by 10%, house sales rise by 7%. House sales increase by 4% when exchange rates rise by 10%. Housing loan interest rates, on the other hand, have a negative impact on housing sales, as expected. House sales fall by 0.1% when mortgage interest rates rise by 10%. These findings indicate that house sales in Turkey are impacted by inflation and exchange rates. This situation, which contradicts the law of demand, stems from the fact that purchasing a house in Turkey is regarded as a significant investment and an anti-inflationary tool. Furthermore, despite the inflationary pressures caused by the exchange rate, foreigners play an important role in the continuation of housing sales and prices.

Kaynakça

  • Akay, Ö., Çelik, C., & Kıral, G. (2019). Konut Talebine göre Benzer Özellik Gösteren Türkiye İllerinin Panel Veri Kümeleme Analizi ile Belirlenmesi. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 5(2), 231-245. google scholar
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  • Çolak, Z. (2021). Analysis of Factors Affecting Housing Sales in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16 (62), 817-834. google scholar
  • Davarcıoğlu Özaktaş, F. (2019). Yabancılara Konut Satışı ve Yeel Efektif Döviz Kuru: Türkiye Örneği Ampirik Çalışma. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 15, 131-147 google scholar
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  • Del Negro, M., & Otrok, C. (2007). 99 Luftballons: Monetary Policy and the House Price Boom Across U.S. states Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(7), 1962-1985. google scholar
  • Demary, M. (2010). The Interplay between Output, Inflation, Interest Rates and House Prices: International Evidence. Journal ofProperty Research, 27(1), 1-17. google scholar
  • Demyanyk, Y., & Hemert, O. V. (2011). Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis, The Review of Financial Studies, 24(6), 1848-1880. google scholar
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-72. google scholar
  • Dokko, J., Doyle, B. M., Kiley, M. T., Kim, J., Sherlund, S., Sim, J., Van Den Heuvel, S., & L’Huillier, J. P. (2011). Monetary Policy and the Global Housing Bubble. Economic Policy, 26(66), 233-283. google scholar
  • Dokko, J., Doyle, B.M., Kiley, M. T., Kim, J., Sherlund, S., Sim, J., & Heuvel, S. V. (2009). Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble. Divisions ofResearch & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board. google scholar
  • Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1994). Macro Economics. (6th ed.). McGrawHill Inc., İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık. google scholar
  • Duesenberry, J. S., & Kisten, H. (1953). The Role of Demand in the Economic Structure. In Leontief, W.W. (ed.),Studies in the Structure o f the American Economy. Oxford University Press, New York google scholar
  • Durkaya, M. (2002). Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi, (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Trabzon. google scholar
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  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-76. google scholar
  • Ermisch, J.F., Findlay, J., & Gibb, K. (1996). The price Elasticity Of Housing Demand in Britain: Issues Of Sample Selection. Journal ofHousing Economics, 5(1), 64-86. google scholar
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  • Fawley, B. W., & Neely, C. J. (2013). Four Stories of Quantitative Easing. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 95(1), 51-88. google scholar
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  • Fulop, G., & Gyomai, G. (2012). Transition Of the OECD CLI System to A GDP-Based Business Cycle Target. OECD Composite Leading Indicators Background note, March-2012. google scholar
  • Gelfand, J. E. (1966). The Credit Elasticity of Lower-middle Income Housing Demand. Land Economics, 42(4), 464-472. google scholar
  • Giffinger, R. (1998). Segregation in Vienna: Impacts of Market Barriers and Rent Regulations. Urban Studies, 35(10), 1791-1812. google scholar
  • Giuliodori, M. (2005). The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Across European Countries. Scottish Journal ofPolitical Economy, 52(4), 519-543. google scholar
  • Goetzmann, W. N., & Volaitis, E. (2006). Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging. Yale International Center for Finance Working Paper, 6(4), 1- 39. google scholar
  • Granger C. W. J., & Newbold P. (1974). Spurios Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2 (1974), 111-120. google scholar
  • Hunaiti, H. (1997). Housing Demand in Jordan: A Case-study. Population Studies Department, University of Jordan, Jordan. google scholar
  • Iacoviello, M., & Minetti, R. (2006). The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence From the Housing Market. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(1), 69-96. google scholar
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal ofEconomic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254. google scholar
  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin ofEconomics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. google scholar
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  • Karadağ, H. (2021). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bankalar Tarafından Verilen Konut Kredileri, Konut Satışları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki (2010: Q1-2020:Q3) . Journal of Social Policy Conferences, 80 , 403- 422 . google scholar
  • Kıral, G., & Çelik, C. (2018). Panel Veri Analizi ve Kümeleme Yöntemi ile Türkiye’de Konut Talebinin İncelenmesi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 32 (4), 1009-1026. google scholar
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Toplam 84 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Orhan Şanlı 0000-0003-3980-7832

Osman Peker 0000-0003-4068-1448

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ocak 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Nisan 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Şanlı, O., & Peker, O. (2023). Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 10(1), 37-60. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1104822
AMA Şanlı O, Peker O. Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. JEPR. Ocak 2023;10(1):37-60. doi:10.26650/JEPR1104822
Chicago Şanlı, Orhan, ve Osman Peker. “Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz Ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10, sy. 1 (Ocak 2023): 37-60. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1104822.
EndNote Şanlı O, Peker O (01 Ocak 2023) Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10 1 37–60.
IEEE O. Şanlı ve O. Peker, “Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, JEPR, c. 10, sy. 1, ss. 37–60, 2023, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1104822.
ISNAD Şanlı, Orhan - Peker, Osman. “Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz Ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10/1 (Ocak 2023), 37-60. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1104822.
JAMA Şanlı O, Peker O. Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. JEPR. 2023;10:37–60.
MLA Şanlı, Orhan ve Osman Peker. “Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz Ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, c. 10, sy. 1, 2023, ss. 37-60, doi:10.26650/JEPR1104822.
Vancouver Şanlı O, Peker O. Enflasyon, Kur, Faiz ve Gelirin Konut Satışlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. JEPR. 2023;10(1):37-60.