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Türkiye'de Gıda Fiyatlarının Belirleyicileri: Fourier Engle-Granger Eşbütünleşme Testi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 133 - 156, 30.01.2023

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2008M04-2020M08 döneminde Türkiye'de tüketici faiz oranları, reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi ve gıda üretim endeksinin gıda fiyat endeksi üzerindeki etkilerini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Fourier Engle-Granger (FEG) eşbütünleşme testi, uzun dönem katsayı tahmin edicileri ve hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Fourier Granger nedensellik testleri ile incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de ciddi bir sorun haline gelen gıda fiyat endeksindeki artışa neden olan faktörler araştırılırken yeni geliştirilen bir zaman serisi analizi kullanılmıştır. Hem dönem hem de yöntem açısından Türkiye için bu konuda yapılan ilk çalışmadır. FEG eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde tüketici faiz oranları, reel efektif döviz kuru ve gıda üretim endeksinin gıda fiyatları üzerinde anlamlı etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Uzun vadede, gıda üretim endeksindeki %1'lik bir artış gıda fiyat endeksini %0,39 ve %0,33 oranında, reel döviz kurundaki %1'lik bir artış ise gıda fiyat endeksini %0,26 ve %0,25 oranında düşürmektedir. Tüketici faiz oranlarının önemli bir etkisi yoktur. Ayrıca hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Fourier Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi ve gıda üretim endeksinden gıda fiyat endeksine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Çalışma politika yapıcılar için önemli bulgular içermektedir

Kaynakça

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Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 133 - 156, 30.01.2023

Öz

This study aims to reveal the effects of consumer interest rates, real effective exchange rate index, and food production index on the food price index in Türkiye, in the date range 2008M04-2020M08. The relationships between the variables were investigated with the Fourier Engle-Granger (FEG) cointegration test, long-run coefficient estimators, and Fourier Granger causality tests based on the error correction model. This study uses a novel developed time series analysis while investigating the factors that cause the increase in the food price index, which has become a serious problem in Türkiye. It is the first study on this subject for Türkiye in terms of the period and the method. According to the FEG cointegration test results, it was determined that consumer interest rates, real effective exchange rates, and food production index significantly affected food prices in the long run. Over the long term, a 1% increase in the food production index decreased the food price index by 0.39% and 0.33%, and a 1% increase in the real exchange rate index reduced the food price index by 0.26% and 0.25%. Consumer interest rates did not have a significant effect. In addition, according to the Fourier Granger causality test results based on the error correction model, causality relationships from the real effective exchange rate index and food production index to the food price index were determined. The study contains important findings for policymakers.

Kaynakça

  • Abbott, P. C., Hurt, C. & Tyner, W. E. (2008). What’s driving food prices? In Family Court Review, 46(3), 1-40. google scholar
  • Abdullah, M. & Kalim, R. (2012). Empirical analysis of food price inflation in Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal, 16(7), 933-939. google scholar
  • Agriculture-Forestry Council, 2022. https://cdniys.tarimorman.gov.tr/api/File/GetFile/330/Sayfa/1416/1778/ DosyaGaleri/5._tarimsal_girdiler_ve_finansman.pdf [last accessed 02.01.2022]. google scholar
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  • Anh, V. T., Quan, L. T. T., Phuc, N. V., Chi, H. M. & Duc, V. H. (2021). Exchange rate pass-through in ASEAN countries: An application of the SVAR model. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(1), 21-34. google scholar
  • Baek, J. & Koo, W. W. (2010). Analyzing factors affecting U.S. food price inflation. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 58(3), 303-320. google scholar
  • Baffes, J. & Dennis, A. (2014). Long-term drivers of food prices. DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/15594/WPS6455. pdf?sequence=1 [last accessed 28.12.2021]. google scholar
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  • Barsky, R. B. & Summers, L. H. (1988). Gibson’s paradox and the gold standard. Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 528-550. google scholar
  • Başkaya, Y. S., Gürgür, T. & Öğünç, F. (2008). Factors that determine processed food prices. TCMB Working Paper 08(09), 1-49. google scholar
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  • CBRT, 2020. Inflation report (2020)-IV. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/cca35dc9-7d37-4419-a20d-f3948377f78e/enfekim2020_iv_tam.pdf? MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-cca35dc9-7d37-4419-a20d-f3948377f78e-no9w7rI [last accessed 02.01.2022]. google scholar
  • CBRT (2022). Inflation report 2022-I. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/75635e65-74bf-4d04-83ca-415ffea1f032/enfocak_2022_i_tam.pdf? MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-75635e65-74bf-4d04-83ca-415ffea1f032-nWqBrwE [last accessed 03.01.2022]. google scholar
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  • Çıplak, U. & Yücel, M. E. (2004). Trade protection measures, agricultural and food prices. TCMB Çalışma Tebliği 04(01), 1-24. google scholar
  • Davidson, J., Halunga, A., Lloyd, T., Mccorriston, S. & Morgan, C. W. (2012). Explaining UK food price inflation (1). http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/24500/1/UK_Food_Inflation_WP1.pdf [last accessed 22.01.2022]. google scholar
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Toplam 96 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Veysel İnal 0000-0002-1143-4184

Şerif Canbay 0000-0001-6141-7510

Mustafa Kırca 0000-0002-5630-7525

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Ocak 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Haziran 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA İnal, V., Canbay, Ş., & Kırca, M. (2023). Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 10(1), 133-156.
AMA İnal V, Canbay Ş, Kırca M. Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. JEPR. Ocak 2023;10(1):133-156.
Chicago İnal, Veysel, Şerif Canbay, ve Mustafa Kırca. “Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10, sy. 1 (Ocak 2023): 133-56.
EndNote İnal V, Canbay Ş, Kırca M (01 Ocak 2023) Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10 1 133–156.
IEEE V. İnal, Ş. Canbay, ve M. Kırca, “Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test”, JEPR, c. 10, sy. 1, ss. 133–156, 2023.
ISNAD İnal, Veysel vd. “Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10/1 (Ocak 2023), 133-156.
JAMA İnal V, Canbay Ş, Kırca M. Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. JEPR. 2023;10:133–156.
MLA İnal, Veysel vd. “Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, c. 10, sy. 1, 2023, ss. 133-56.
Vancouver İnal V, Canbay Ş, Kırca M. Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. JEPR. 2023;10(1):133-56.