Öz
1980’li yıllardan itibaren
dünya ekonomisinde liberalleşme eğilimleri artarak, ithal ikameci
politikalardan ihracata dayalı ekonomik kalkınma politikalarına geçilmiştir.
Politikacıların ihracatı artırmak için makroekonomik değişkenleri kontrol
etmeye çalıştıkları değişkenlerden biri döviz kurlarıdır. Çünkü döviz kurları
cari işlemler dengesini doğrudan etkilemektedir. Kur sistemi temelde reel ve
esnek döviz kuru sistemi şeklinde ikiye ayrılır. Özellikle politikacılar, esnek
sistemde döviz kurunu ihracatı artırmada kritik bir politika aracı olarak kullanmaktadır.
Bu nedenle esnek kur sisteminde döviz kurlarını etkileyen faktörlerin önemi
artmaktadır. Bu çalışma, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde reel döviz kuru ile
makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki, özellikle de dış ticaret hadleri ile olan
ilişkiyi incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Teorik çerçevenin ardından değişkenler
arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek amacı ile bir model oluşturulacak ve yer alacak
değişkenlere ait veriler toplanarak ekonometrik çözümleme yapılacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Reel Döviz Duru Dış Ticaret Hadleri Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomiler Panel Veri
Kaynakça
- Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and itsApplications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of EconomicStudies(47-1), 239-253.
- Coudert, V., Couharde, C. ve Mignon, V. (2008). Do Terms of Trade Drive RealExchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies. Centre d'EtudesProspectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)(32), 4-64.
- Coudert, V., Couharde, C. ve Mignon, V. (2014). On the Impact of Oil Price Volatilityon The Real Exchange Rate – Terms of Trade Nexus: Revisiting CommodityCurrencies. Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales(CEPII), Paris, 1-23.
- Drine, I. ve Rault, C. (2003). On the Long-run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates forDeveloping Countries: Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia. WilliamDavidson Institute Working Paper, 1-29.
- Emirmahmutoglu, F. ve Köse, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality inheterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling 28.3, 870-876.
- Neary, P. (1988). Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. The AmericanEconomic Review,78(1) , 210-215.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels.CESifo Working Paper(1229), 1-40.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐sectiondependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels.Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
- Rahutami, A. I. (2012). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade:ASEANExperience towards ASEAN Economic Community Seminar and DiscussionPaper. 1-15. Nijmegen, Hollanda: Nijmegen School of Management RadboudUniversity.
- Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin ofEconomics and Statistics 69(6), 709-748.
AMPIRIC APPLICATION FOR THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REAL EXCHANGE EXCHANGE AND FOREIGN TRADE ROLLS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Öz
From the 1980s onwards,
liberalization tendencies in the world economy increased, and export-oriented
economic development policies were adopted from import substitutionist
policies. One of the variables that politicians try to control macroeconomic
variables in order to increase exports is exchange rates. Because the foreign
exchange rates directly affect the current account balance. Rate system is
basically divided into the form of real and flexible exchange rates. Especially
politicians, to increase exports in a flexible exchange rate system uses as a
critical policy tool. Hence the importance of factors affecting the exchange
rates flexible exchange rate system is increasing. Study aims to examine the
relationship between real exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in
developing countries, especially the terms of trade. After the theoretical
framework, a model will be formed in order to examine the relationship between
the variables and data of the variables will be collected and econometric
analysis will be performed.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and itsApplications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of EconomicStudies(47-1), 239-253.
- Coudert, V., Couharde, C. ve Mignon, V. (2008). Do Terms of Trade Drive RealExchange Rates? Comparing Oil and Commodity Currencies. Centre d'EtudesProspectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)(32), 4-64.
- Coudert, V., Couharde, C. ve Mignon, V. (2014). On the Impact of Oil Price Volatilityon The Real Exchange Rate – Terms of Trade Nexus: Revisiting CommodityCurrencies. Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales(CEPII), Paris, 1-23.
- Drine, I. ve Rault, C. (2003). On the Long-run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates forDeveloping Countries: Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia. WilliamDavidson Institute Working Paper, 1-29.
- Emirmahmutoglu, F. ve Köse, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality inheterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling 28.3, 870-876.
- Neary, P. (1988). Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. The AmericanEconomic Review,78(1) , 210-215.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels.CESifo Working Paper(1229), 1-40.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐sectiondependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels.Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
- Rahutami, A. I. (2012). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade:ASEANExperience towards ASEAN Economic Community Seminar and DiscussionPaper. 1-15. Nijmegen, Hollanda: Nijmegen School of Management RadboudUniversity.
- Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin ofEconomics and Statistics 69(6), 709-748.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi, İşletme |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 24 Kasım 2018 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 23 Kasım 2018 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2018 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2 |
