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Türkiye’de Döviz Mevduatları Bağlamında Para İkamesi Sorunu ve Para Politikalarının Etkinliği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 57 - 73, 14.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.55026/jobaf.1025501

Öz

Bu çalışmada, banka sistemindeki döviz mevduatlarının artışına dayalı para ikamesi süreci analiz edilmekte ve Türkiye örneği üzerinden bu sorunun para politikalarının etkinliğine yansımaları değerlendirilmektedir. Çalışmada, Mizen’in (1999) teorik modeli temel alınarak geliştirilen eşanlı denklem sistemi, Türkiye için tahmin edilmiştir. 2002-2021 dönemini kapsayan aylık verilerle yapılan analizler, Mizen modelinin temel önermelerinin Türkiye’de de geçerli olabileceğini göstermektedir. Yüksek ve kronik enflasyon nedeniyle portföylerinde dövize daha çok yer veren yerleşikler, döviz varlıklarını banka sisteminde tutmayı tercih etmektedir. Ama bir kur şoku yaşanması halinde bu durum değişebilir. Döviz varlıkları banka sistemi içinde kaldıkça, ikame süreci merkez bankasınca yönetilebilir ve kur rejimi korunabilir. Bu süreçte rezervlerin teminat işlevi ve zorunlu karşılık oranlarının dengeleyici işlevi çok önemlidir. Rezervlerin erimesi ve/veya zorunlu karşılık politikasının yanlış yönetilmesi halinde, spekülatif kur atakları yaşanması durumunda, döviz mevduatlarının banka sistemi dışına kaçması ve para politikalarının etkinliğinin zayıflaması kaçınılmaz olacaktır. Böyle bir süreç, bir kur krizine hatta kısa bir gecikmeyle buna eşlik eden bir banka krizine evrilebilir.

Kaynakça

  • Agenor, P.R. ve Khan, M.S. (1996). Foreign Currency Deposits and The Demand for Money in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 50, 101-118.
  • Alami, T.H. (2001). Currency Substitution versus Dollarization A Portfolio Balance Model. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23, 473-479.
  • Arteta, C.O. (2003). Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises? Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 763, March.
  • Bitar, J. (2021). Foreign Currency Intermediation: Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation. Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2, 100028.
  • Brown, M. ve Stix, H. (2015). The Euroization of Bank Deposits in Eastern Europe. Economic Policy, January, 95-139.
  • De Nicolo, G., Honohan, P. ve Ize, A. (2003). Dollarisation of the Banking System: Good or Bad? World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, No. 3116, August.
  • Flood, R.P. ve Garber, P.M. (1984). Collapsing Exchange-rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples. Journal of International Economics, 17, 1–13.
  • Gulde, A. Marrie, Hoelscher, David S., Ize, Alain, Marston, Dewitt D., De Nicolo, Gianni. (2004). “Financial Stability in Dollarized Economies”, IMF Occasional Paper No. 230, June.
  • Honohan, P. ve Shi, A. (2003). Deposit Dollarisation and the Financial Sector in Emerging Economies. Globalization and National Financial Systems içinde, Ed.: J. Hanson, P. Honohan and G. Majnoni, New York, the World Bank ve Oxford University Press, 35-66.
  • Mirakhor, A. ve Zaidi, I. (2004). Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan. IMF Working Papers, No. WP/04/167, September.
  • Mizen, P. (1999). Can Foreign Currency Deposits Prop up a Collapsing Exchange-rate Regime? Journal of Development Economics, 58, 553-562.
  • Ramon-Ballester, F. ve Wezel, T. (2007). International Financial Linkages of Latin American Banks: The Effects of Political Risk and Deposit Dollarization. ECB Working Papers, No. 744, March.
  • Versal, N. ve Stavytskyy, A. (2015). Financial Dollarization: A Trojan Horse for Ukraine? Ekonomika, 94(3), 21-45.
  • Whited, H.I.H. (2004). Comment on ‘Currency Substitution versus Dollarization: A Portfolio Balance Model’. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, 113-116.

Currency Substitution Problem and Efficiency of Monetary Policy in the Context of Foreign Currency Deposits in Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 57 - 73, 14.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.55026/jobaf.1025501

Öz

In this study, the currency substitution process based on the increase in foreign currency deposits in the banking system is analyzed and the reflections of this problem on the effectiveness of monetary policies are evaluated through the example of Turkey. In the study, simultaneous equation system developed based on Mizen's (1999) theoretical model was estimated for Turkey. Analyzes with monthly data covering the period 2002-2021 show that the basic propositions of the Mizen model may also be valid in Turkey. Residents, who have more foreign currency in their portfolios due to high and chronic inflation, prefer to keep their foreign currency assets in the banking system. However, this may change in the event of a currency shock. As long as foreign exchange assets remain within the banking system, the substitution process can be managed by the central bank and the exchange rate regime can be maintained. In this process, the collateral function of reserves and the balancing function of required reserve ratios are very important. In case the reserves are melted and the reserve requirement policy is mismanaged, in case of speculative exchange rate attacks, it will be inevitable for foreign currency deposits to escape from the banking system and weaken the effectiveness of monetary policies. Such a process could evolve into a currency crisis or, with a short delay, an accompanying bank crisis.

Kaynakça

  • Agenor, P.R. ve Khan, M.S. (1996). Foreign Currency Deposits and The Demand for Money in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 50, 101-118.
  • Alami, T.H. (2001). Currency Substitution versus Dollarization A Portfolio Balance Model. Journal of Policy Modeling, 23, 473-479.
  • Arteta, C.O. (2003). Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises? Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, No. 763, March.
  • Bitar, J. (2021). Foreign Currency Intermediation: Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation. Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2, 100028.
  • Brown, M. ve Stix, H. (2015). The Euroization of Bank Deposits in Eastern Europe. Economic Policy, January, 95-139.
  • De Nicolo, G., Honohan, P. ve Ize, A. (2003). Dollarisation of the Banking System: Good or Bad? World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, No. 3116, August.
  • Flood, R.P. ve Garber, P.M. (1984). Collapsing Exchange-rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples. Journal of International Economics, 17, 1–13.
  • Gulde, A. Marrie, Hoelscher, David S., Ize, Alain, Marston, Dewitt D., De Nicolo, Gianni. (2004). “Financial Stability in Dollarized Economies”, IMF Occasional Paper No. 230, June.
  • Honohan, P. ve Shi, A. (2003). Deposit Dollarisation and the Financial Sector in Emerging Economies. Globalization and National Financial Systems içinde, Ed.: J. Hanson, P. Honohan and G. Majnoni, New York, the World Bank ve Oxford University Press, 35-66.
  • Mirakhor, A. ve Zaidi, I. (2004). Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan. IMF Working Papers, No. WP/04/167, September.
  • Mizen, P. (1999). Can Foreign Currency Deposits Prop up a Collapsing Exchange-rate Regime? Journal of Development Economics, 58, 553-562.
  • Ramon-Ballester, F. ve Wezel, T. (2007). International Financial Linkages of Latin American Banks: The Effects of Political Risk and Deposit Dollarization. ECB Working Papers, No. 744, March.
  • Versal, N. ve Stavytskyy, A. (2015). Financial Dollarization: A Trojan Horse for Ukraine? Ekonomika, 94(3), 21-45.
  • Whited, H.I.H. (2004). Comment on ‘Currency Substitution versus Dollarization: A Portfolio Balance Model’. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, 113-116.
Toplam 14 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

K. Batu Tunay 0000-0002-9040-5831

Yayımlanma Tarihi 14 Ocak 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Tunay, K. B. (2022). Türkiye’de Döviz Mevduatları Bağlamında Para İkamesi Sorunu ve Para Politikalarının Etkinliği. Journal of Banking and Financial Research, 9(1), 57-73. https://doi.org/10.55026/jobaf.1025501