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Sarhoş Yürüyüşü Modeli Çerçevesinde 15 Temmuz Darbe Girişimi Sonrası Türkiye-Avrupa Birliği (AB) İlişkileri

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 861 - 869, 28.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1016825

Öz

Bu çalışma, 15 Temmuz 2016'da Türkiye'deki darbe girişiminin ardından Türkiye-AB ilişkilerini incelemektedir. Çalışma, karar alma modellerden biri olan Sarhoş Yürüyüşü Modeli ile ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada, AB ve Türk karar vericilerin 15 Temmuz darbe girişiminden sonra birbirlerine karşı söylemlerinin, kaldırımda yürüyen bir sarhoş gibi zikzak çizerek yapıldığı iddia edilmektedir. AB karar vericileri tarafından Türkiye'ye yönelik iyi söylemler sağa, kötü söylemler ise sola adım atılarak gösterilecektir. Sağa atılan adımlar A, sola atılan adımlar ise B olarak değerlendirilecek, ilişkilerin nasıl devam edeceği ve ilişkilerin nasıl zikzaklar çizdiği anlatılacaktır. Şüphesiz sosyal bilimlerde her olay eşit değerde olmayabilir. Burada eşit değerler verilmesi olayların nedenlerinin ve sonuçlarının önceden belirlenemediğini ve tahmin edilemeyen farklı sonuçların olabileceğini göstermek için yapılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Alemdar, Z. (2016). Three Scenarios for Turkey-EU relations after July 15th. Retrieved from http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/three-scenarios-for-turkey-eu-relations-after-july-15th- _4144.html.
  • Cagaptay, S. and Jeffrey, J. F. (2016). Inside Turkey’s failed coup: What happened?, Why?, What Next?. Retrieved from http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/inside-turkeys-failed- coup-what-happened-why-what-next.
  • Cooray, A. (2003). The random walk behaviour of stock prices: A comparative study. Discussion Paper, ), 1-18.
  • EUObserver. (2016a). Turkey still open to EU despite differences. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/tickers/136089.
  • EUObserver. (2016b). EU in damage control on festering Turkey relations. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/enlargement/136045.
  • Euractiv. (2016a). Turkish FM: EU failed the test after the coup attempt. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/turkish-fm-eu-failed-the-test-after-the-coup- attempt/.
  • Euractiv. (2016b). Dutch join push for EU-Turkey accession talks freze. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/dutch-join-push-for-eu-turkey-accession-talks-freeze/.
  • European Commission. (2016a). Joint statement by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini and Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn on the situation in Turkey. Retrieved from http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-16-2555_en.htm.
  • European Commission. (2016b). Turkey 2016 Report. Brussels.
  • European Commission. (2016c). Third Report on the Progress made in the implementation of the EU-Turkey Statement. Brussels.
  • European Councıl on Foreıgn Relatıons. (2016a). EU-Turkey relations after July 15: Turning the page. Retrieved from http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_eu_turkey_relations_after_july_15_turning_the_page7124.
  • European Councıl on Foreıgn Relatıons. (2016b). Turkey after July 15: The View from Ankara. Retrieved from http://www.ecfr.eu/article/Turkey_after_July_15_The_view_from_Ankara_7088.
  • European Council. (2016). European Council meeting (15 December 2016)– Conclusions. Brussels.
  • European Parliament. (2016a). Turkey: handling of aftermath of coup attempt is a crucial test, say MEPs. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news- room/20160830IPR40513/turkey-handling-of-aftermath-of-coup-attempt-is-a-crucial-test-say-meps.
  • European Parliament. (2016b). Foreign affairs MEPs to debate attempted coup in Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20160718IPR37446/foreign-affairs- meps-to-debate-attempted-coup-in-turkey.
  • European Parliament. (2016c). European Parliament resolution on EU-Turkey relations. Retrieved May 20, 2021, from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=MOTION&reference=B8- 2016-1276&language=EN.
  • Foreıgn Affaırs Councıl. (2016). Council conclusions on Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/07/18-fac-turkey-conclusions/.
  • Gotev, G. (2016). EU plans summit with Turkey. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/eu-plans-future-summit-with-turkey/.
  • Idiz, S. (2016). EU tries to mend fences with Turkey following attempted coup. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/turkey-european-union-tries-mend-fences.html.
  • Internatıonal Federatıon of Journalısts. (2016). New wave of repression targeting daily Cumhuriyet in Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.ifj.org/nc/news-single-view/backpid/1/article/new-wave-of- repression-targeting-daily-cumhuriyet-in-turkey/.
  • Kirişçi, K. and Laub, Z. (2016). Turkey’s Prospects After the Coup Attempt. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/turkeys-prospects-after-the-coup-attempt/.
  • Kohls, M. and Hernandez, J. (2018). Expected Coverage of Random Walk Mobılıty Algorıthm. Retrieved from https://arxiv.org/pdf/1611.02861.pdf.
  • Korkmaz, N. (2017). The Rise of Bulgarian Nationalism, Its Orthodox Component, Evolution and the Making of Turks as “Others”. Gazi Academic View, 10(20), 69-82.
  • Lecha, E. S. (2016). The International Impact of the Failed Coup in Turkey. Opinion, (425), 1-3.
  • Nau, R. (2014). Notes on the random walk model. Retrieved from https://people.duke.edu/~rnau/Notes_on_the_random_walk_model--Robert_Nau.pdf.
  • Nielsen, N. (2016). EU rejects calls for 'freeze' in Turkey talks. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/foreign/136261.
  • Pearson, K. (1905). The problem of the random walk. Nature, 72(1865), 294–294..
  • Penev, D. (2016). Does Turkey really want visa liberalization?. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/opinion/does-turkey-really-want-visa-liberalization/.
  • Sayrs, L. W. (1993). The Long Cycle in International Relations: A Markov Specification. International Studies Quarterly. 37(2), 215-237.
  • The Parliament. (2016). EU Parliament chief to visit Turkey amid ongoing tension. Retrieved from https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/eu-parliament-chief-visit-turkey-amid- ongoing-tension.
  • Vincenti, D. (2016). Turkey to back out of EU migrant deal if no visa-free travel. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/turkey-to-back-out-of-eu-migrant-deal-if-no- visa-free-travel/.
  • Vytiska, H. (2016). Austrian foreign minister moves away from Ankara towards Moscow. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/austrian-foreign-minister-moves-away-from-erdogan-towards-putin/.

Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 861 - 869, 28.04.2022
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1016825

Öz

This study examines Turkey-EU Relations after the coup attempt in Turkey on July 15, 2016. The study was conducted using one of the decision-making models, the Random Walk Model. The study claims that the rhetoric of EU and Turkish decision-makers against each other after the July 15 coup attempt was made by zigzagging like a drunk walking on the pavement. Good rhetoric by EU decision-makers to Turkey will be shown by stepping to the right, and bad rhetoric will be shown by stepping to the left. The steps taken to the right will be evaluated as A, and the steps to the left will be evaluated as B. Then, inference will be made on how the relations will continue and how the relations will be evaluated. It will be explained that it draws zags. Undoubtedly, every event may not be of equal value in social sciences. Giving equal values here is to show that the causes and consequences of the events cannot be determined beforehand and that there may be different unpredictable results.

Kaynakça

  • Alemdar, Z. (2016). Three Scenarios for Turkey-EU relations after July 15th. Retrieved from http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/three-scenarios-for-turkey-eu-relations-after-july-15th- _4144.html.
  • Cagaptay, S. and Jeffrey, J. F. (2016). Inside Turkey’s failed coup: What happened?, Why?, What Next?. Retrieved from http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/inside-turkeys-failed- coup-what-happened-why-what-next.
  • Cooray, A. (2003). The random walk behaviour of stock prices: A comparative study. Discussion Paper, ), 1-18.
  • EUObserver. (2016a). Turkey still open to EU despite differences. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/tickers/136089.
  • EUObserver. (2016b). EU in damage control on festering Turkey relations. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/enlargement/136045.
  • Euractiv. (2016a). Turkish FM: EU failed the test after the coup attempt. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/turkish-fm-eu-failed-the-test-after-the-coup- attempt/.
  • Euractiv. (2016b). Dutch join push for EU-Turkey accession talks freze. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/dutch-join-push-for-eu-turkey-accession-talks-freeze/.
  • European Commission. (2016a). Joint statement by High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini and Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn on the situation in Turkey. Retrieved from http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-16-2555_en.htm.
  • European Commission. (2016b). Turkey 2016 Report. Brussels.
  • European Commission. (2016c). Third Report on the Progress made in the implementation of the EU-Turkey Statement. Brussels.
  • European Councıl on Foreıgn Relatıons. (2016a). EU-Turkey relations after July 15: Turning the page. Retrieved from http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_eu_turkey_relations_after_july_15_turning_the_page7124.
  • European Councıl on Foreıgn Relatıons. (2016b). Turkey after July 15: The View from Ankara. Retrieved from http://www.ecfr.eu/article/Turkey_after_July_15_The_view_from_Ankara_7088.
  • European Council. (2016). European Council meeting (15 December 2016)– Conclusions. Brussels.
  • European Parliament. (2016a). Turkey: handling of aftermath of coup attempt is a crucial test, say MEPs. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news- room/20160830IPR40513/turkey-handling-of-aftermath-of-coup-attempt-is-a-crucial-test-say-meps.
  • European Parliament. (2016b). Foreign affairs MEPs to debate attempted coup in Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20160718IPR37446/foreign-affairs- meps-to-debate-attempted-coup-in-turkey.
  • European Parliament. (2016c). European Parliament resolution on EU-Turkey relations. Retrieved May 20, 2021, from http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=MOTION&reference=B8- 2016-1276&language=EN.
  • Foreıgn Affaırs Councıl. (2016). Council conclusions on Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/07/18-fac-turkey-conclusions/.
  • Gotev, G. (2016). EU plans summit with Turkey. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/eu-plans-future-summit-with-turkey/.
  • Idiz, S. (2016). EU tries to mend fences with Turkey following attempted coup. Retrieved from http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/09/turkey-european-union-tries-mend-fences.html.
  • Internatıonal Federatıon of Journalısts. (2016). New wave of repression targeting daily Cumhuriyet in Turkey. Retrieved from http://www.ifj.org/nc/news-single-view/backpid/1/article/new-wave-of- repression-targeting-daily-cumhuriyet-in-turkey/.
  • Kirişçi, K. and Laub, Z. (2016). Turkey’s Prospects After the Coup Attempt. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/turkeys-prospects-after-the-coup-attempt/.
  • Kohls, M. and Hernandez, J. (2018). Expected Coverage of Random Walk Mobılıty Algorıthm. Retrieved from https://arxiv.org/pdf/1611.02861.pdf.
  • Korkmaz, N. (2017). The Rise of Bulgarian Nationalism, Its Orthodox Component, Evolution and the Making of Turks as “Others”. Gazi Academic View, 10(20), 69-82.
  • Lecha, E. S. (2016). The International Impact of the Failed Coup in Turkey. Opinion, (425), 1-3.
  • Nau, R. (2014). Notes on the random walk model. Retrieved from https://people.duke.edu/~rnau/Notes_on_the_random_walk_model--Robert_Nau.pdf.
  • Nielsen, N. (2016). EU rejects calls for 'freeze' in Turkey talks. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/foreign/136261.
  • Pearson, K. (1905). The problem of the random walk. Nature, 72(1865), 294–294..
  • Penev, D. (2016). Does Turkey really want visa liberalization?. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/opinion/does-turkey-really-want-visa-liberalization/.
  • Sayrs, L. W. (1993). The Long Cycle in International Relations: A Markov Specification. International Studies Quarterly. 37(2), 215-237.
  • The Parliament. (2016). EU Parliament chief to visit Turkey amid ongoing tension. Retrieved from https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/eu-parliament-chief-visit-turkey-amid- ongoing-tension.
  • Vincenti, D. (2016). Turkey to back out of EU migrant deal if no visa-free travel. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/turkey-to-back-out-of-eu-migrant-deal-if-no- visa-free-travel/.
  • Vytiska, H. (2016). Austrian foreign minister moves away from Ankara towards Moscow. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/austrian-foreign-minister-moves-away-from-erdogan-towards-putin/.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ekrem Yaşar Akçay 0000-0001-9157-6133

Halil Emre Deniş 0000-0002-9830-5624

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 28 Nisan 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Nisan 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 31 Ekim 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Akçay, E. Y., & Deniş, H. E. (2022). Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(2), 861-869. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1016825
AMA Akçay EY, Deniş HE. Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model. MJSS. Nisan 2022;11(2):861-869. doi:10.33206/mjss.1016825
Chicago Akçay, Ekrem Yaşar, ve Halil Emre Deniş. “Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations After the July 15 Coup Attempt Within the Framework of the Random Walk Model”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 11, sy. 2 (Nisan 2022): 861-69. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1016825.
EndNote Akçay EY, Deniş HE (01 Nisan 2022) Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 11 2 861–869.
IEEE E. Y. Akçay ve H. E. Deniş, “Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model”, MJSS, c. 11, sy. 2, ss. 861–869, 2022, doi: 10.33206/mjss.1016825.
ISNAD Akçay, Ekrem Yaşar - Deniş, Halil Emre. “Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations After the July 15 Coup Attempt Within the Framework of the Random Walk Model”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 11/2 (Nisan 2022), 861-869. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1016825.
JAMA Akçay EY, Deniş HE. Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model. MJSS. 2022;11:861–869.
MLA Akçay, Ekrem Yaşar ve Halil Emre Deniş. “Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations After the July 15 Coup Attempt Within the Framework of the Random Walk Model”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, c. 11, sy. 2, 2022, ss. 861-9, doi:10.33206/mjss.1016825.
Vancouver Akçay EY, Deniş HE. Turkey-European Union (EU) Relations after the July 15 Coup Attempt within the Framework of the Random Walk Model. MJSS. 2022;11(2):861-9.

MANAS Journal of Social Studies (MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi)     


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