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ENFLASYON, İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BÖLGESEL BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3, 87 - 111, 20.10.2023

Sevilay Konya

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1346539

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye için bölgesel düzeyde enflasyon, işsizlik ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’deki 26 Düzey-2 bölgesi için 2005-2021 dönemini kapsayan veri seti kullanılmış ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alan yöntemler uygulanmıştır. Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup (PMG) tahmincisi kullanılarak katsayı tahmini yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda hata düzeltme parametresi negatif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. Enflasyon ve işsizliğin uzun dönem parametreleri negatif ve anlamlı olarak belirlenmiştir. Enflasyon ve işsizlik oranının uzun vadede ekonomik büyümeyi azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Tüm bu bulgular işsizlik ve enflasyonun ekonomik büyümede önemli bir rolü olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın literatüre beklenen katkısı, enflasyon ve işsizliğin ekonomik büyümeye etkisinin bölgesel düzeyde Türkiye için araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmanın sonucunda uzun dönem işsizlik ve enflasyon ile mücadelenin ekonomik büyüme hedeflerini sağlamada önemli bir faktör olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Politika yapıcılar enflasyon ve işsizliği düşürecek politikalar ortaya koymalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik büyüme Enflasyon İşsizlik Düzey-2 bölge

Kaynakça

  • Ademola, A. S. ve Badiru, A., (2016). "The Impact of Unemployment and inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981–2014)", International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 9(1), 47-55.
  • Adeyemi, A. Z. ve Olowookere, J. K., (2021). “Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth In Nigeria (1980-2019)”, Polac International Journal Of Economics And Management Science (PIJEMS), 7(1), 60-71.
  • Asghar, H., Ayub, M., Shahzad, S. K. ve Shah, S. Z. A., (2022). “Nexus between Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth of Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 10(2), 904–912.
  • Atay Polat, M. ve Sancar, C., (2022). “Enflasyon ile İşsizliğin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri: Türkiye’nin Düzey 2 Bölgeleri İçin Bir Uygulama”, Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 26(2), 381-398.
  • Bai, J., ve Ng, S., (2010). “Panel Unit Root Tests With Cross-Section Dependence: A Further Investıgation”, Econometric Theory, 26(4), 1088–1114.
  • Cashell, B., (2006). “Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment: Limits to Economic Policy”, CRS Report for Congress, Order RL33734, November.
  • Darma, N. A., ve Onimisi, A. M., (2017). “The Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth In Nigeria (1980-2014)”, Archives of Business Research, 5(5), 106-114.
  • Dünya Bankası (2023). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, 10.04.2023
  • Gyang, E. J., Anzaku, E., Iyakwari, A. D., ve Eze, F., (2018). “An Analysis of the Relationship Between Unemployment, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1986-2015”, Bingham Journal of Economics and Allied Studies, 11, 1–11.
  • Idrıs, M., (2021). “Effect Of Unemployment and Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria”, Global Journal of Applied, Management and Social Sciences (GOJAMSS), 21, 254 – 266.
  • Im, K., Lee, J. ve Tieslau, M., (2005). “Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67, 393–419
  • Impin, P. D. A. ve Kok, S. C., (2021). “The Effect Of Inflation Rate, Interest Rate And Unemployment Rate On The Economıc Growth Of Malaysia”, Malaysian Journal of Business and Economics (MJBE), 8(1), 125–140.
  • Kopuk, E., (2020). “İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: 1988-2019 Dönemi Türkiye İncelemesi”, IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Milli Mücadele'nin 100. Yılı Özel Sayısı, 11-22.
  • Kostov, L., (2017). “The impact of economic growth on inflation and unemployment in Bulgaria, 2006-2016”, Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, 20 (1), Future labour market challenges: digitalisation and Brexit (2017), 85-99.
  • Mohseni,M. ve Jouzaryan, F., (2016). “Examining the Effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Iran (1996-2012)”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 381-389.
  • Panigrahi, S. K., Azizan, N. A., Sorooshian, S. ve Thoudam, P., (2020). “Effects Of Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rates On Economic Growth: Evidence From Asean Countries”, ABAC Journal, 40(2), 140-155.
  • Patterson, N., Okafor, O. ve Williams, D., (2006). ʺGlobalization and Employment Generation: Evaluating the Impact of Trade on Aggregate Employment in Nigeria’s Industrial Sectorʺ, Proceedings of Nigerian Economic Society, 2006 Annual Conference held at Abuja.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependen¬ce in Panels”, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 435, 1-41.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2007). “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265– 312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., ve Yamagata, T., (2008). “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Sa’idu, B. M., ve Muhammad, A. A., (2015). “Do unemployment and inflation substantially affect economic growth”, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 3(2), 132–139.
  • Sahnoun, M., ve Abdennadher, C., (2019). “Causality between inflation, economic growth and unemployment in North African Countries”, Economic Alternatives, 1, 77-92.
  • Sekwati, D. ve Dagume, M. A., (2023). "Effect of Unemployment and Inflation on Economic Growth in South Africa", International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 13(1), 35-45.
  • Shahid, M., (2014). “Effect of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Pakistan”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(15), 103-107.
  • Shiyalini, S. ve Bhavan, T., (2021). “Impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for Sri Lanka”, Himalayan Journal of Economics and Business Management, 2(1) 55-62.
  • TÜİK (2023). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2022-49390, 19.04.2023.
  • Uçan, O. ve Çebe, G. N., (2018). “2008 Krizi Öncesi ve Sonrası Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyon İlişkisi”, Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(3), 6-17.
  • Westerlund, J., (2008). “Panel Cointegration Tests of The Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • Westerlund, J. ve Edgerton, D. L., (2008). “A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70, 665-704.
  • Yüksel, S., (2016). “Rusya Ekonomisinde Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 614, 43-57.

INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A REGIONAL RESEARCH FOR TÜRKİYE

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3, 87 - 111, 20.10.2023

Sevilay Konya

https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1346539

Öz

This study aims to investigate the relationship between inflation, unemployment, and economic growth at the regional level for Türkiye. For this purpose, the data set covering the period 2005-2021 for 26 NUTS-2 regions in Türkiye was used and methods that take into account the cross-section dependency were applied. Coefficient estimation was made using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. As a result of the analysis, the error correction parameter was found to be negative and significant. Approximately 42% of the deviation that will occur in any period will be corrected in the next period, and in this way, the system will move toward long-term equilibrium. Long-term parameters of inflation and unemployment were determined as negative and significant. Inflation and unemployment rate have been identified to reduce economic growth in the long run. All these findings show that unemployment and inflation play an important role in economic growth. The expected contribution of this study to the literature is to investigate the effects of inflation and unemployment on economic growth at the regional level for Türkiye. As a result of the study, it has been revealed that the fight against long-term unemployment and inflation is an important factor in achieving economic growth targets. Policymakers should put forward policies that will reduce inflation and unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth Inflation Unemployment NUTS-2 region

Kaynakça

  • Ademola, A. S. ve Badiru, A., (2016). "The Impact of Unemployment and inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981–2014)", International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 9(1), 47-55.
  • Adeyemi, A. Z. ve Olowookere, J. K., (2021). “Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth In Nigeria (1980-2019)”, Polac International Journal Of Economics And Management Science (PIJEMS), 7(1), 60-71.
  • Asghar, H., Ayub, M., Shahzad, S. K. ve Shah, S. Z. A., (2022). “Nexus between Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic Growth of Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 10(2), 904–912.
  • Atay Polat, M. ve Sancar, C., (2022). “Enflasyon ile İşsizliğin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkileri: Türkiye’nin Düzey 2 Bölgeleri İçin Bir Uygulama”, Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 26(2), 381-398.
  • Bai, J., ve Ng, S., (2010). “Panel Unit Root Tests With Cross-Section Dependence: A Further Investıgation”, Econometric Theory, 26(4), 1088–1114.
  • Cashell, B., (2006). “Economic Growth, Inflation and Unemployment: Limits to Economic Policy”, CRS Report for Congress, Order RL33734, November.
  • Darma, N. A., ve Onimisi, A. M., (2017). “The Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth In Nigeria (1980-2014)”, Archives of Business Research, 5(5), 106-114.
  • Dünya Bankası (2023). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, 10.04.2023
  • Gyang, E. J., Anzaku, E., Iyakwari, A. D., ve Eze, F., (2018). “An Analysis of the Relationship Between Unemployment, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1986-2015”, Bingham Journal of Economics and Allied Studies, 11, 1–11.
  • Idrıs, M., (2021). “Effect Of Unemployment and Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria”, Global Journal of Applied, Management and Social Sciences (GOJAMSS), 21, 254 – 266.
  • Im, K., Lee, J. ve Tieslau, M., (2005). “Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67, 393–419
  • Impin, P. D. A. ve Kok, S. C., (2021). “The Effect Of Inflation Rate, Interest Rate And Unemployment Rate On The Economıc Growth Of Malaysia”, Malaysian Journal of Business and Economics (MJBE), 8(1), 125–140.
  • Kopuk, E., (2020). “İşsizlik ve Enflasyonun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: 1988-2019 Dönemi Türkiye İncelemesi”, IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Milli Mücadele'nin 100. Yılı Özel Sayısı, 11-22.
  • Kostov, L., (2017). “The impact of economic growth on inflation and unemployment in Bulgaria, 2006-2016”, Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, 20 (1), Future labour market challenges: digitalisation and Brexit (2017), 85-99.
  • Mohseni,M. ve Jouzaryan, F., (2016). “Examining the Effects of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Iran (1996-2012)”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 381-389.
  • Panigrahi, S. K., Azizan, N. A., Sorooshian, S. ve Thoudam, P., (2020). “Effects Of Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rates On Economic Growth: Evidence From Asean Countries”, ABAC Journal, 40(2), 140-155.
  • Patterson, N., Okafor, O. ve Williams, D., (2006). ʺGlobalization and Employment Generation: Evaluating the Impact of Trade on Aggregate Employment in Nigeria’s Industrial Sectorʺ, Proceedings of Nigerian Economic Society, 2006 Annual Conference held at Abuja.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependen¬ce in Panels”, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 435, 1-41.
  • Pesaran, H. M., (2007). “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265– 312.
  • Pesaran, M. H., ve Yamagata, T., (2008). “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Sa’idu, B. M., ve Muhammad, A. A., (2015). “Do unemployment and inflation substantially affect economic growth”, Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 3(2), 132–139.
  • Sahnoun, M., ve Abdennadher, C., (2019). “Causality between inflation, economic growth and unemployment in North African Countries”, Economic Alternatives, 1, 77-92.
  • Sekwati, D. ve Dagume, M. A., (2023). "Effect of Unemployment and Inflation on Economic Growth in South Africa", International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 13(1), 35-45.
  • Shahid, M., (2014). “Effect of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Pakistan”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(15), 103-107.
  • Shiyalini, S. ve Bhavan, T., (2021). “Impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for Sri Lanka”, Himalayan Journal of Economics and Business Management, 2(1) 55-62.
  • TÜİK (2023). https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2022-49390, 19.04.2023.
  • Uçan, O. ve Çebe, G. N., (2018). “2008 Krizi Öncesi ve Sonrası Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyon İlişkisi”, Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(3), 6-17.
  • Westerlund, J., (2008). “Panel Cointegration Tests of The Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
  • Westerlund, J. ve Edgerton, D. L., (2008). “A Simple Test for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70, 665-704.
  • Yüksel, S., (2016). “Rusya Ekonomisinde Büyüme, İşsizlik ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 614, 43-57.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Beşeri Coğrafya (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Sevilay Konya 0000-0002-0483-4139

Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Ekim 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Konya, S. (2023). ENFLASYON, İŞSİZLİK VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BÖLGESEL BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Nişantaşı Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(3), 87-111. https://doi.org/10.52122/nisantasisbd.1346539
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