TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI

Umut Akduğan; Bilge Hakan Agun

doi:10.26468/trakyasobed.452043

Araştırma Makalesi

TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 207 - 222, 27.12.2018

Umut Akduğan Bilge Hakan Agun

https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.452043

Cited By: 6

Öz

Mali
sürdürülebilirlik, hükümetin bütçe kısıtı temel alınarak farklı tekniklerle
analiz edilmektedir. Hamilton ve Flavin (1986) tarafından mali
sürdürülebilirliğe ilişkin geliştirilen yöntem, cari dönemdeki bütçe açığının
veya borç stokunun gelecek dönemlerdeki bütçe fazlasıyla karşılanıp
karşılanamayacağının belirlenmesine dayanmaktadır. Dolayısıyla dönemlerarası
bütçe kısıtı, mali sürdürülebilirliğin bir göstergesi olarak kabul
edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada merkezi yönetim bütçe açığının sürdürülebilirliğine
ilişkin yaklaşım belediyelere uyarlanmış, Türkiye’de tümleşik belediyelerin
birincil bütçe dengesi baz alınarak belediyelerin mali sürdürülebilirliği
incelenmiştir. Çalışmada belediyelerin mali sürdürülebilirliğinin
araştırılmasında, belediyelere ilişkin gelirler ile faiz dışı harcamalar
arasındaki farkı ifade eden birincil bütçe dengesi değişkeninin durağanlığı
sınanmıştır. Bu kapsamda 2007-2017 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler kullanılmış,
seri 2010 yılı bazlı reel GSYH endeksi ile reel hale getirilmiş, son olarak da
modelde serinin doğal logaritması kullanılmıştır. Birincil bütçe dengesi
serisinin durağanlığının analiz edilmesinde ADF, PP ve Ng-Perron Birim Kök
Testleri’nin yanı sıra yapısal kırılmanın tespiti için Zivot-Andrews (1992)’in
birim kök testinden faydalanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, incelenen dönemde belediyelere
ilişkin birincil bütçe dengesi serisinin durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu
bulgu, söz konusu dönemde Türkiye’de belediyelerin mali sürdürülebilirlik
koşulunu sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Belediyeler, mali sürdürülebilirlik, birincil denge, birim kök testi

Kaynakça

Awan, R. U., Anjum, A., Rahim, S. (2015). An Econometric Analysis of Determinants of External Debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 5(4), 382-391.
Blanchard, O. J. (1990). “Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.79, OECD Publishing, 1-34.
Bröthaler, J. , Getzner, M., Haber, G. (2015). “Sustainability of Local Government Debt: A Case Study of Austrian Municipalities”, Empirica, 42, 521-546.
Buettner, T. & Wildasin, D. E. (2006). “The Dynamics Of Municipal Fiscal Adjustment”, Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1115–1132.
Buiter, W. H. (1985). “Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits”, Economic Policy: A European Forum, 1, 13-79.
Burnside, C. (2005). Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice. The World Bank, Washington, D. C.
Dában, T., Detragiache, E., Di Bella, G., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Symansky, S. (2003). Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in France, Germany, Italy and Spain, Occasional Paper 225, IMF, Washington DC.
Domar, E. D. (1944). “The ‘Burden of the Debt’ and the National Income”, The American Review, 34(4), 798-827.
Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distributions Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427-431.
Enders, W., (2003). Applied Econometric Time Series. John Willey&Sons Inc., Second Edition.
Epple, D. & Spatt, C. (1986). “State Restrictions on Local Debt: Their Role in Preventing Default”, Journal of Public Economics, 29(2), 199–221.
Esteve, V. & L-Lopis, J. S. (2005). Estimating The Substitutability Between Private and Public Consumption: The Case of Spain, 1960-2003, Applied Economics, 37, 2327-2334.
Ganof, M. H. (1984). “A Fundamental Flaw of Debt Limitations for State and Local Governments”, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 3(4), 293–310.
Geithner, T. (2002). “Assessing Sustainability”, International Monetary Fund Working Papers, Policy Development and Review Department, 1-60.
Gündüz, İ. O. & Agun, B. H. (2011). Yerel Yönetim Düzeyinde Mali Kural Uygulaması ve Türkiye Değerlendirmesi, TİSK AKADEMİ, Cilt:6, Sayı: 12, 119-159.
Hamilton, J. & Flavin, M. (1986). On The Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing, American Economic Review, 76, 808-819.
Kalyoncu, H. (2005). “Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Test of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints”, Applied Economic Letters, 12, 957-962.
Kremers, J. M. (1988). "Long-run Limits on the U.S. Federal Debt." Economic Letters, 28, 259-62.
Mahdavi, S. & Westerlund, J. (2011). “Fiscal Stringency and Fiscal Sustainability: Panel Evidence From The American State and Local Governments”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 33(6), 953–969.
Metcalf, G. E. (1993). “Federal Taxation and The Supply of State Debt”, Journal of Public Economics, 51, 269–285.
Ng, S. & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power, Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
Önal, A. Y. (2008). Türkiye’de Belediyelerin Borçlanma Süreci: 1960-2006, İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, No: 39, 187-206.
Perron, P. & Ng, S. (1996). Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests With Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties, The Review of Economic Studies, 63(3), 435-463.
Poterba, J. M. & Rueben, K. S. (2001). “Fiscal News, State Budget Rules and Tax-Exempt Bond Yields”, Journal of Urban Economics, 50, 537–562.
Prohl S. & Schneider F. (2006). Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel Cointegration Analysis for the European Union Member Countries, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Working Paper, No. 0610,1-26.
Slack, E. & Bird, R. M. (2004). “The Fiscal Sustainability of The Greater Toronto Area”, ITP Paper, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, 0405, 1-41.
Tekeli, R. & Hotunluoğlu, H. (2014). “Türkiye’de Merkezi Yönetimle Yerel Yönetimlerde Mali Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(3), 113-127.
Trehan, B. & Walsh, C. E. (1991). “Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U. S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23(2), 206-223.
Trehan, B. & Walsh, C. E. (1988). "Common Trends, Intertemporal Budget Balance, and Revenue Smoothing", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425-44.
Uctum, M. & Wickens, M. (2000). Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62(2), 197-222.
Wilcox, D. W. (1989). "The Sustainability of Government Defcits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21, 291-306.
Yılancı, V. & Özcan, B. (2010). “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 21-33.
Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). “Further Evidence of the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY OF MUNICIPALITIES IN TURKEY: PRIMARY BALANCE APPROACH

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 207 - 222, 27.12.2018

Umut Akduğan Bilge Hakan Agun

https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.452043

Cited By: 6

Öz

Fiscal sustainability is
analyzed by different techniques on the basis of government budget constraint.
The method developed for fiscal sustainability by Hamilton and Flavin (1986) is
based on determining whether the budget deficit or debt stock of the current
term can be met with the budget surpluses in the future terms. Therefore,
lifetime budget constraints are regarded as a sign of fiscal sustainability. In
this study, the approach relating to sustainability of central government
budget deficit is adapted to municipalities, and fiscal sustainability of
municipalities in Turkey is examined on the basis of primary budget balance of
the integrated municipalities. To analyze the fiscal sustainability of the
municipalities, the stationarity of the primary budget balance variable, which
expresses the difference between the municipal revenues and expenditures
excluding interest payments, has been tested. In this context, quarterly data
of the period of 2007-2017 is used, the series is made real with the real GDP
index based on the year of 2010, and finally the natural logarithm of the
series is used in the model. In analyzing the stationary of the primary budget
balance series, ADF, PP and Ng-Perron Unit Root Tests as well as the unit root
test of Zivot-Andrews (1992) were used to determine the structural breakage.
The results of the analysis indicate that the primary budget balance series of
the municipalities is stationary during this period. These findings reveals
that the municipalities in Turkey ensure the fiscal sustainability criteria.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Municipalities, Fiscal sustainability, Primary balance

Kaynakça

Awan, R. U., Anjum, A., Rahim, S. (2015). An Econometric Analysis of Determinants of External Debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 5(4), 382-391.
Blanchard, O. J. (1990). “Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.79, OECD Publishing, 1-34.
Bröthaler, J. , Getzner, M., Haber, G. (2015). “Sustainability of Local Government Debt: A Case Study of Austrian Municipalities”, Empirica, 42, 521-546.
Buettner, T. & Wildasin, D. E. (2006). “The Dynamics Of Municipal Fiscal Adjustment”, Journal of Public Economics, 90, 1115–1132.
Buiter, W. H. (1985). “Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits”, Economic Policy: A European Forum, 1, 13-79.
Burnside, C. (2005). Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice. The World Bank, Washington, D. C.
Dában, T., Detragiache, E., Di Bella, G., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Symansky, S. (2003). Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in France, Germany, Italy and Spain, Occasional Paper 225, IMF, Washington DC.
Domar, E. D. (1944). “The ‘Burden of the Debt’ and the National Income”, The American Review, 34(4), 798-827.
Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distributions Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427-431.
Enders, W., (2003). Applied Econometric Time Series. John Willey&Sons Inc., Second Edition.
Epple, D. & Spatt, C. (1986). “State Restrictions on Local Debt: Their Role in Preventing Default”, Journal of Public Economics, 29(2), 199–221.
Esteve, V. & L-Lopis, J. S. (2005). Estimating The Substitutability Between Private and Public Consumption: The Case of Spain, 1960-2003, Applied Economics, 37, 2327-2334.
Ganof, M. H. (1984). “A Fundamental Flaw of Debt Limitations for State and Local Governments”, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 3(4), 293–310.
Geithner, T. (2002). “Assessing Sustainability”, International Monetary Fund Working Papers, Policy Development and Review Department, 1-60.
Gündüz, İ. O. & Agun, B. H. (2011). Yerel Yönetim Düzeyinde Mali Kural Uygulaması ve Türkiye Değerlendirmesi, TİSK AKADEMİ, Cilt:6, Sayı: 12, 119-159.
Hamilton, J. & Flavin, M. (1986). On The Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing, American Economic Review, 76, 808-819.
Kalyoncu, H. (2005). “Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Test of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints”, Applied Economic Letters, 12, 957-962.
Kremers, J. M. (1988). "Long-run Limits on the U.S. Federal Debt." Economic Letters, 28, 259-62.
Mahdavi, S. & Westerlund, J. (2011). “Fiscal Stringency and Fiscal Sustainability: Panel Evidence From The American State and Local Governments”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 33(6), 953–969.
Metcalf, G. E. (1993). “Federal Taxation and The Supply of State Debt”, Journal of Public Economics, 51, 269–285.
Ng, S. & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power, Econometrica, 69(6), 1519-1554.
Önal, A. Y. (2008). Türkiye’de Belediyelerin Borçlanma Süreci: 1960-2006, İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, No: 39, 187-206.
Perron, P. & Ng, S. (1996). Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests With Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties, The Review of Economic Studies, 63(3), 435-463.
Poterba, J. M. & Rueben, K. S. (2001). “Fiscal News, State Budget Rules and Tax-Exempt Bond Yields”, Journal of Urban Economics, 50, 537–562.
Prohl S. & Schneider F. (2006). Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel Cointegration Analysis for the European Union Member Countries, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Working Paper, No. 0610,1-26.
Slack, E. & Bird, R. M. (2004). “The Fiscal Sustainability of The Greater Toronto Area”, ITP Paper, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, 0405, 1-41.
Tekeli, R. & Hotunluoğlu, H. (2014). “Türkiye’de Merkezi Yönetimle Yerel Yönetimlerde Mali Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(3), 113-127.
Trehan, B. & Walsh, C. E. (1991). “Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U. S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23(2), 206-223.
Trehan, B. & Walsh, C. E. (1988). "Common Trends, Intertemporal Budget Balance, and Revenue Smoothing", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 425-44.
Uctum, M. & Wickens, M. (2000). Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62(2), 197-222.
Wilcox, D. W. (1989). "The Sustainability of Government Defcits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21, 291-306.
Yılancı, V. & Özcan, B. (2010). “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 11(1), 21-33.
Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). “Further Evidence of the Great Crash, The Oil-Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

Toplam 33 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil	Türkçe
Bölüm	Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar	Umut Akduğan 0000-0001-8659-541X Bilge Hakan Agun 0000-0001-8659-541X
Yayımlanma Tarihi	27 Aralık 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2018 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA	Akduğan, U., & Agun, B. H. (2018). TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(2), 207-222. https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.452043
AMA	Akduğan U, Agun BH. TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI. Trakya University Journal of Social Science. Aralık 2018;20(2):207-222. doi:10.26468/trakyasobed.452043
Chicago	Akduğan, Umut, ve Bilge Hakan Agun. “TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI”. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 20, sy. 2 (Aralık 2018): 207-22. https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.452043.
EndNote	Akduğan U, Agun BH (01 Aralık 2018) TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 20 2 207–222.
IEEE	U. Akduğan ve B. H. Agun, “TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI”, Trakya University Journal of Social Science, c. 20, sy. 2, ss. 207–222, 2018, doi: 10.26468/trakyasobed.452043.
ISNAD	Akduğan, Umut - Agun, Bilge Hakan. “TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI”. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 20/2 (Aralık 2018), 207-222. https://doi.org/10.26468/trakyasobed.452043.
JAMA	Akduğan U, Agun BH. TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI. Trakya University Journal of Social Science. 2018;20:207–222.
MLA	Akduğan, Umut ve Bilge Hakan Agun. “TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI”. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, c. 20, sy. 2, 2018, ss. 207-22, doi:10.26468/trakyasobed.452043.
Vancouver	Akduğan U, Agun BH. TÜRKİYE’DE BELEDİYELERİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: BİRİNCİL DENGE YAKLAŞIMI. Trakya University Journal of Social Science. 2018;20(2):207-22.