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TÜRKİYE’YE YÖNELİK DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ETKİLEYEN FİNANSAL FAKTÖRLER

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 14, 165 - 181, 21.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.54831/vanyyuiibfd.1158476

Öz

Küreselleşmenin dünyayı tek bir küresel köye dönüştürmesi doğrudan yabancı yatırım hacminde önemli bir artış ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu süreçte doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar özellikle gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için giderek artan şekilde ekonomik büyümenin önemli bir kaynağı haline gelmiştir. Öyle ki, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar gelişmekte olan ülkelerde istihdamı ve üretimi artırmanın yanı sıra bilgi ve teknoloji yayılımı yoluyla üretim yapısında önemli değişikliklere yol açmıştır. Bu nedenle gelişmekte olan ülkeler doğrudan yabancı yatırımları ülkelerine çekmek için büyük çaba sarf etmektedir. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların gelişmekte olan ekonomiler açısından öneminin artmasına paralel olarak doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini etkileyen faktörler ekonomi literatüründe kapsamlı bir şekilde incelenmeye başlanmıştır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini etkileyen finansal faktörler üzerinde durmaktadır. Bunun için, global krizin başlangıcından pandemiye kadar geçen süreci içine alan 2008Q4-2019Q4 döneminde global faiz oranı ve borsa indeksi ile döviz kurunun doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerindeki etkisi ARDL yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ekonometrik sonuçlar, Tobin’in Q Teorisi çerçevesinde, global borsa indeksindeki yükselişlerin Türkiye’ye yönelik sermaye girişlerini pozitif yönde etkileyen önemli bir değişken olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan kur seviyesindeki değişimler doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişlerini kısa dönemde pozitif uzun dönemde ise negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Genel olarak global faiz oranında gelişmeler ile doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişleri arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Böylece ampirik bulgular finansal göstergeler içinde global borsa indeksindeki değişimlerin Türkiye’ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı girişlerini etkileyen en önemli faktör olarak öne çıkarmaktadır. Böylece elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye’ye yönelik doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişlerini teşvik için Tobin’in Q teorisi çerçevesinde tasarlanacak politika seçeneklerinin önemini ortaya koymuştur.

Kaynakça

  • Agarwal, S., & Mohtadi, H., (2004). Financial Markets and the Financing Choice of Firms: Evidence from Developing Countries. Global Finance Journal, cilt.15, sa.1, 57-70.
  • Agbloyor, E.K., Abor, J., Adjasi, C.K.D., & Yawson, A., (2013). Exploring the Causality Links between Financial Markets and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Research in International Business and Finance, sa.28, 118-134.
  • Ahmed, T., & Ullah, S., (2012). Determinants of Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan. NICE Research Journal, sa.5, 93-110.
  • Arcabic, V., Globan, T., & Raguž, I., (2013). The Relationship between the Stock Market and Foreign Direct Investment in Croatia: Evidence from VAR and Cointegration Analysis. Financial Theory and Practice, cilt.37, sa.1, 109-126.
  • Azubuike, A. E., Chidinma, O. F., & Chinwendu, N. N., (2017). Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Approach. Journal of Finance, Banking and Investment, cilt.4, sa.2, 43-52.
  • Batten, J.A., & Vo, X.V., (2009). An Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth. Applied Economics, cilt.41, sa.13, 621-641.
  • Baydaş, Y., & Polat, M., (2018). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Borsa İstanbul’a Etkisinin Belirlenmesi. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, cilt.2, sa.2, 37-46.
  • Bilawal, M., Ibrahim, M., Abbas, A., Shuaib, M., Ahmed, M., Hussain, I., & Fatima, T., (2014). Impact of Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan. Advances in Economics and Business, cilt.2, sa.6, 223-231.
  • Bozkurt, H., (2009). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: CCC-MGARCH Modeli ile Tahmin. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, sa.36, 71-92.
  • Cambazoğlu, B., & Güneş, S., (2016). The Relationship between Foreign Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey. Economics, Management and Financial Markets, cilt.11, sa.1, 284-293.
  • Castro, P.G., Fernandes, E.A., & Campos, A.C., (2013). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil and Mexico: An Empirical Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, cilt.5, sa.4, 231-240.
  • Choong, C.K., Yusop, Z., & Soo, S.C. (2004). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Malaysia: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector. The Singapore Economic Review, sa.50, 245-268.
  • Chousa, J.P., Tamazian, A., Vadlamannati, K.C., (2008). Does Growth and Quality of Capital Markets Drive Foreign Capital? The Case of Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions form Leading Emerging Economies. Turkish Economic Association Working Papers, sa.2008/5.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A., (1981). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, sa.49, 1057-1072.
  • Fazira, D.R., & Cahyadin, M., (2018). The Impact of Interest Rate, Corruption Perception Index, and Economic Growth on Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN-6. Journal of Finance and Banking, cilt.22, sa.4, 707-713.
  • Fornah, S., & Yuehua, Z., (2017). Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Interest Rates on Foreign Direct Investment in Sierra Leone. International Journal of Research in Business Studies and Management, cilt.4, sa.12, 28-35.
  • Ghazi, M., (2021). The Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis dan Akuntansi, cilt.23, sa.2, 297-306.
  • Gurshev, O., (2019). What Determines Foreign Direct Investment in Russia?. Central European Economic Journal, cilt.6, sa.53, 311-322.
  • Hajilee, M., & Nasser, O.M., (2015). The Relationship between Financial Market Development and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin American Countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, cilt.9, sa.2, 227-245.
  • Kar, M., & Tatlısöz, F., (2008). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Hareketlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi. Karamanoğlu Mehmet Bey Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, sa.1, 436-458.
  • Kariuki, C., (2015). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the African Union. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, cilt.3, sa.3, 346-351.
  • Kaur, M., Yadav, S.S., & Gautam, V., (2013). Financial System Development and Foreign Direct Investment: A Panel Data Study for BRIC Countries. Global Business Review, cilt.14, sa.4, 729-742.
  • Kholdy, S., & Sohrabian, A., (2008). Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets and Political Corruption. Journal of Economic Studies, cilt.35, sa.6, 486-500.
  • Koepke, R., (2019). What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, cilt.33, sa.2, 516-540.
  • Kumari, R., & Sharma, A.K., (2017). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Study. International Journal of Emerging Markets, cilt.12, sa.4, 658-682.
  • Lebe, F., & Ersungur, Ş.M., (2011). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımını Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörlerin Ampirik Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, sa.25, 321-339.
  • Lee, J.W., (2015). Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea. Asian Economic Journal, cilt.29, sa.1, 73-90.
  • Lily, J., Kogid, M., Mulok, D., Sang, L. T., & Asid, R., (2014). Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Invetment in Asean Economies. Economic Research International, sa.1, 1-10.
  • Maryam, J., & Mittal, A., (2020). Foreign Direct Investment into BRICS: An Empirical Analysis. Transnational Corporations Review, cilt.12, sa.1, 1-9.
  • MacDermott, R., (2008). Linking Exchange Rates to Foreign Direct Investment. The International Trade Journal, cilt.22, sa.1, 3-16.
  • Mariel, P., & Pankova, V., (2010). Exchange Rate Effects on Foreign Direct Investment Focusing on Central European Economies. Ekonomicky Casopis (Journal of Economics), cilt.58, sa.2, 176-187.
  • Miyamoto, K., (2003). Human Capital Formation and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Paper, sa.211.
  • Musyoka, N., & Ocharo, K.N., (2018). Real Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Competitiveness and Foreign Direct Investment in Kenya. American Journal of Economics, cilt.3, sa.1, 1-18.
  • Nada, F., & Hebatallah, G., (2020). Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment: Egypt Case. Revue du Lareiid, cilt.6-7, sa.1, 138-157.
  • Nasser, O.M, & Gomez, X.G., (2009). Do Well-Functioning Financial Systems Affect the FDI Flows to Latin America?. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, sa.29, 60-75.
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Pesaran, B., (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y., (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.S., (2001). Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, cilt.16, sa.3, 289-326.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., & Perron, P., (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrica, cilt.75, sa.2, 235-346.
  • Singhania, M., & Gupta, A., (2011). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in India. Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, cilt.10, sa.1, 64-82.
  • Takagi, S., & Shi, Z., (2011). Exchange Rate Movements and Foreign Direct Investment: Japanese Investment in Asia, 1987-2008. Japan and the World Economy, cilt.23, sa.4, 265-272.
  • Uzgören, E., & Akalın, G., (2016). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, sa.49, 63-77.

THE FINANCIAL FACTORS AFFECTING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 14, 165 - 181, 21.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.54831/vanyyuiibfd.1158476

Öz

There has been a significant increase in foreign direct investments as the world has become a single global village with globalization. In this process, foreign direct investments has increasingly become an important source of economic growth for developing economies. In fact, foreign direct investments leads to significant changes in the production structure through the diffusion of information and technology, as well as increasing employment and production in developing countries. Therefore, developing countries have made great efforts to attract foreign direct investments to their countries. Parallel to the increasing importance of foreign direct investments for developing economies, the factors affecting foreign direct investment inflows have begun to be studied extensively in the economics literature. This study will focus on the financial factors that affect foreign direct investments inflows to Turkey. Accordingly, the effect of global interest rate, stock market index and exchange rate on foreign direct investments inflows in the 2008Q4-2019Q4 period, which includes the period from the beginning of the global crisis to the pandemic, was analyzed by ARDL method. Econometric results show that increases in the global stock market index within the framework of Tobin's Q Theory are an important variable that affects capital inflows to Turkey. On the other hand, changes in the exchange rate affect foreign direct capital inflows positively in the short term and negatively in the long term. In general, no significant relationship was found between developments in global interest rates and foreign direct capital inflows. Thus, empirical findings highlight the changes in the global stock market index among financial indicators as the most important factor affecting foreign direct inflows to Turkey. This fact has revealed the importance of policy options to be designed within the framework of Tobin's Q theory to encourage foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Agarwal, S., & Mohtadi, H., (2004). Financial Markets and the Financing Choice of Firms: Evidence from Developing Countries. Global Finance Journal, cilt.15, sa.1, 57-70.
  • Agbloyor, E.K., Abor, J., Adjasi, C.K.D., & Yawson, A., (2013). Exploring the Causality Links between Financial Markets and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Research in International Business and Finance, sa.28, 118-134.
  • Ahmed, T., & Ullah, S., (2012). Determinants of Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Pakistan. NICE Research Journal, sa.5, 93-110.
  • Arcabic, V., Globan, T., & Raguž, I., (2013). The Relationship between the Stock Market and Foreign Direct Investment in Croatia: Evidence from VAR and Cointegration Analysis. Financial Theory and Practice, cilt.37, sa.1, 109-126.
  • Azubuike, A. E., Chidinma, O. F., & Chinwendu, N. N., (2017). Impact of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: Vector Error Correction Mechanism Approach. Journal of Finance, Banking and Investment, cilt.4, sa.2, 43-52.
  • Batten, J.A., & Vo, X.V., (2009). An Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth. Applied Economics, cilt.41, sa.13, 621-641.
  • Baydaş, Y., & Polat, M., (2018). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Borsa İstanbul’a Etkisinin Belirlenmesi. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, cilt.2, sa.2, 37-46.
  • Bilawal, M., Ibrahim, M., Abbas, A., Shuaib, M., Ahmed, M., Hussain, I., & Fatima, T., (2014). Impact of Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan. Advances in Economics and Business, cilt.2, sa.6, 223-231.
  • Bozkurt, H., (2009). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yatırımların Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Analiz: CCC-MGARCH Modeli ile Tahmin. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, sa.36, 71-92.
  • Cambazoğlu, B., & Güneş, S., (2016). The Relationship between Foreign Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey. Economics, Management and Financial Markets, cilt.11, sa.1, 284-293.
  • Castro, P.G., Fernandes, E.A., & Campos, A.C., (2013). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil and Mexico: An Empirical Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, cilt.5, sa.4, 231-240.
  • Choong, C.K., Yusop, Z., & Soo, S.C. (2004). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Malaysia: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector. The Singapore Economic Review, sa.50, 245-268.
  • Chousa, J.P., Tamazian, A., Vadlamannati, K.C., (2008). Does Growth and Quality of Capital Markets Drive Foreign Capital? The Case of Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions form Leading Emerging Economies. Turkish Economic Association Working Papers, sa.2008/5.
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A., (1981). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, sa.49, 1057-1072.
  • Fazira, D.R., & Cahyadin, M., (2018). The Impact of Interest Rate, Corruption Perception Index, and Economic Growth on Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN-6. Journal of Finance and Banking, cilt.22, sa.4, 707-713.
  • Fornah, S., & Yuehua, Z., (2017). Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Interest Rates on Foreign Direct Investment in Sierra Leone. International Journal of Research in Business Studies and Management, cilt.4, sa.12, 28-35.
  • Ghazi, M., (2021). The Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis dan Akuntansi, cilt.23, sa.2, 297-306.
  • Gurshev, O., (2019). What Determines Foreign Direct Investment in Russia?. Central European Economic Journal, cilt.6, sa.53, 311-322.
  • Hajilee, M., & Nasser, O.M., (2015). The Relationship between Financial Market Development and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin American Countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, cilt.9, sa.2, 227-245.
  • Kar, M., & Tatlısöz, F., (2008). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Hareketlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi. Karamanoğlu Mehmet Bey Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, sa.1, 436-458.
  • Kariuki, C., (2015). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the African Union. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, cilt.3, sa.3, 346-351.
  • Kaur, M., Yadav, S.S., & Gautam, V., (2013). Financial System Development and Foreign Direct Investment: A Panel Data Study for BRIC Countries. Global Business Review, cilt.14, sa.4, 729-742.
  • Kholdy, S., & Sohrabian, A., (2008). Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets and Political Corruption. Journal of Economic Studies, cilt.35, sa.6, 486-500.
  • Koepke, R., (2019). What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, cilt.33, sa.2, 516-540.
  • Kumari, R., & Sharma, A.K., (2017). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Study. International Journal of Emerging Markets, cilt.12, sa.4, 658-682.
  • Lebe, F., & Ersungur, Ş.M., (2011). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımını Etkileyen Ekonomik Faktörlerin Ampirik Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, sa.25, 321-339.
  • Lee, J.W., (2015). Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea. Asian Economic Journal, cilt.29, sa.1, 73-90.
  • Lily, J., Kogid, M., Mulok, D., Sang, L. T., & Asid, R., (2014). Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Invetment in Asean Economies. Economic Research International, sa.1, 1-10.
  • Maryam, J., & Mittal, A., (2020). Foreign Direct Investment into BRICS: An Empirical Analysis. Transnational Corporations Review, cilt.12, sa.1, 1-9.
  • MacDermott, R., (2008). Linking Exchange Rates to Foreign Direct Investment. The International Trade Journal, cilt.22, sa.1, 3-16.
  • Mariel, P., & Pankova, V., (2010). Exchange Rate Effects on Foreign Direct Investment Focusing on Central European Economies. Ekonomicky Casopis (Journal of Economics), cilt.58, sa.2, 176-187.
  • Miyamoto, K., (2003). Human Capital Formation and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Paper, sa.211.
  • Musyoka, N., & Ocharo, K.N., (2018). Real Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Competitiveness and Foreign Direct Investment in Kenya. American Journal of Economics, cilt.3, sa.1, 1-18.
  • Nada, F., & Hebatallah, G., (2020). Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment: Egypt Case. Revue du Lareiid, cilt.6-7, sa.1, 138-157.
  • Nasser, O.M, & Gomez, X.G., (2009). Do Well-Functioning Financial Systems Affect the FDI Flows to Latin America?. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, sa.29, 60-75.
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Pesaran, B., (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y., (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.S., (2001). Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, cilt.16, sa.3, 289-326.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., & Perron, P., (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrica, cilt.75, sa.2, 235-346.
  • Singhania, M., & Gupta, A., (2011). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in India. Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, cilt.10, sa.1, 64-82.
  • Takagi, S., & Shi, Z., (2011). Exchange Rate Movements and Foreign Direct Investment: Japanese Investment in Asia, 1987-2008. Japan and the World Economy, cilt.23, sa.4, 265-272.
  • Uzgören, E., & Akalın, G., (2016). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Belirleyicileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, sa.49, 63-77.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Özcan Karahan 0000-0002-1179-2125

Musa Bayır 0000-0002-6877-4032

Yayımlanma Tarihi 21 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 14

Kaynak Göster

APA Karahan, Ö., & Bayır, M. (2022). TÜRKİYE’YE YÖNELİK DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLARI ETKİLEYEN FİNANSAL FAKTÖRLER. Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(14), 165-181. https://doi.org/10.54831/vanyyuiibfd.1158476