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EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 3, 438 - 459, 08.10.2022

Mürşit Recepoğlu

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1130978

Öz

The relationship between migration and economic growth has long been a matter of discussion in theoretical and empirical domains. Previous studies which explored the link between variables suggested an estimation for an unchanging parameter. Despite that; prevailing economic and political circumstances, effective contracts and agreements, implemented policies, ongoing crises or shocks can cause a shift in the relationship across variables in due course. This study analyses the relationship between emigration and economic growth in transition economies in Europe for the period between 1995-2019 by administering time-varying causality test. Findings obtained from the bootstrap panel causality test suggest that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between emigration and economic growth only in Estonia but results of bootstrap panel rolling window causality analysis reveal that for the subperiods, there exist hidden causal relationships within Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Migration Economic growth Panel rolling window causality Transition economies

Kaynakça

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  • Berthiaume, N., Leefmans, N., Oomes, N., Rojas-Romagosa, H. and Vervliet, T. (2021) “A reappraisal of the migration-development nexus: testing the robustness of the migration transition hypothesis”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 9518.
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  • Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C. (2013) “Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries”, Economic Modelling, 33: 261-269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.017
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Yıl 2022, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 3, 438 - 459, 08.10.2022

Mürşit Recepoğlu

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1130978

Öz

Kaynakça

  • AboElsoud, M.E., AlQudah, A. and Elish, E. (2020) “Does a change in immigration affect the unemployment rate in host countries? Evidence from Australia”, Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1): 21-43. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2019.1684740
  • Akbari, A.H. and Haider, A. (2018) “Impact of immigration on economic growth in Canada and in its smaller provinces”, Journal of International Migration and Integration, 19(1): 129-142.
  • Alesina, A., Harnoss, J. and Rapoport, H. (2016) “Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity” Journal of Economic Growth 21(2): 101-138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-016-9127-6
  • Angelucci, M. (2015) “Migration and financial constraints: evidence from Mexico”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(1): 224-228. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00487
  • Aslan, A., Destek, M.A. and Okumus, I. (2018) “Bootstrap rolling window estimation approach to analysis of the Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis: evidence from the USA”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(3): 2402-2408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0548-3
  • Atoyan, R., Christiansen, L., Dizioli, A., Ebeke, C., Ilahi, N., Ilyina, A., Mehrez, G., Qu, H., Raei, F., Rhee, A. and Zakharova, D. (2016) “Emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe”, IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/16/07
  • Baas, T., Brücker, H. and Hauptmann, A. (2010) “Labour mobility in the enlarged EU: who wins, who loses?” Kahanec, M. and Zimmermann, K.F. (eds.) EU labour markets after post- enlargement migration, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  • Banik, A. and Bhaumik, P. K. (2006) “Aging population, emigration and growth in Barbados” International Journal of Social Economics, 33(11): 781-788.
  • Barajas, A., Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., Gapen, M. and Montiel, P. J. (2009) “Do workers' remittances promote economic growth?”, International Monetary Fund Working Paper No WP/09/153.
  • Bazzi, S. (2017) “Wealth heterogeneity and the income elasticity of migration”. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9(2): 219-55. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150548
  • Belka, M. (2013) “How Poland’s EU membership helped transform its economy”, Group of Thirty occasional paper no 88. Washington.
  • Bellini, E., Ottaviano, G.I., Pinelli, D. and Prarolo, G. (2013) “Cultural diversity and economic performance: evidence from European regions” Crescenzi, R. and Perocco, M. (eds.) Geography, institutions and regional economic performance, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
  • Bencek, D. and Schneiderheinze, C. (2020) “Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD: Revisiting the migration hump with panel data”, Kiel Working Paper No 2145, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel.
  • Berthiaume, N., Leefmans, N., Oomes, N., Rojas-Romagosa, H. and Vervliet, T. (2021) “A reappraisal of the migration-development nexus: testing the robustness of the migration transition hypothesis”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No: 9518.
  • Bertoli, S. And Moraga, J.F.H. (2013) “Multilateral resistance to migration”, Journal of development economics, 102: 79-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.12.001
  • Borjas, G.J. (1989) “Economic theory and international migration”, International Migration Review 23(3): 457-485. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791838902300304
  • Borjas, G.J. (2019) “Immigration and economic growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research. WP No w25836.
  • Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C. (2013) “Immigration, growth, and unemployment: Panel VAR evidence from OECD countries”, Labour, 27(4): 399-420. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12017
  • Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C. (2013) “Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries”, Economic Modelling, 33: 261-269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.017
  • Boubtane, E., Dumont, J.C. and Rault, C. (2016) “Immigration and economic growth in the OECD countries 1986–2006”, Oxford Economic Papers, 68(2): 340-360.
  • Bove, V. and Elia, L. (2017) “Migration, diversity, and economic growth”, World Development 89: 227-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.08.012
  • Bretschger, L. (2001) “Labor supply, migration, and long-term development”, Open Economies Review 12(1): 5-27. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026502909466
  • Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980) “The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics”, The review of economic studies, 47(1): 239-253.
  • Brücker, H. (2007) “Labor mobility after the European Union’s Eastern enlargement: who wins, who loses”, A Report to the German Marshall Fund of the United States. IAB Nuremberg and IZA Bonn. Washington
  • Cantore, N. and Calì, M. (2015) “The impact of temporary migration on source countries”, International Migration Review, 49(3): 697-726. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12178 Castells, M. (1989) “The informational city: Information technology, economic restructuring, and the urban-regional process”, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
  • Chen, H. J. (2006) “International migration and economic growth: a source country perspective”, Journal of Population Economics, 19(4): 725-748. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-005-0023-1
  • Chletsos, M. and Roupakias, S. (2012) “Immigration, unemployment and growth: empirical evidence from Greece”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive No 39927
  • Clemens, M. A. (2014) “Does development reduce migration?” Center for Global Development Working Paper No 359, Washington.
  • Clemens, M.A. and Postel, H. M. (2018) “Deterring emigration with foreign aid: an overview of evidence from low-income countries”, Population and Development Review, 44(4): 667-693.
  • Coniglio, N.D. and Brzozowski, J. (2018) “Migration and development at home: bitter or sweet return? evidence from Poland”, European Urban and Regional Studies, 25(1): 85-105.
  • d’Albis, H., Boubtane, E. and Coulibaly, D. (2019) “Immigration and public finances in OECD countries”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 99: 116-151.
  • Dao, T.H., Docquier, F., Parsons, C. and Peri, G. (2018) “Migration and development: dissecting the anatomy of the mobility transition”, Journal of Development Economics, 132: 88-101.
  • De Haas, H. (2007) “Turning the tide? why development will not stop migration”. Development and Change, 38(5): 819-841. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7660.2007.00435.x
  • De Haas, H. (2010) “Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration”, International Migration Institute. Working Papers No 24.
  • Depken, C.A., Nikšić Radić, M. and Paleka, H. (2021) “Causality between foreign remittance and economic growth: empirical evidence from Croatia”, Sustainability, 13(21): 12201.
  • Dessilani, M. (2016) “The brain drain problem: a study into the dynamics of brain drain in Europe” Business Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/2105/37278. Accessed 14 October 2021
  • Djajic, S., Kirdar, M.G. and Vinogradova, A. (2016) “Source-country earnings and emigration”, Journal of International Economics, 99: 46-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.12.001
  • Dolado, J., Goria, A. and Ichino, A. (1994) “Immigration, human capital and growth in the host country”, Journal of Population Economics, 7(2): 193-215. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00173619
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  • Felbermayr, G.J., Hiller, S. and Sala, D. (2010) “Does immigration boost per capita income?”, Economics Letters, 107(2): 177-179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.01.017
  • Feridun, M. (2007) “Immigration, income and unemployment: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 41(1): 37-49.
  • Fries-Tersch, E., Jones, M., Böök, B. and Siöland, L. (2021) “Annual report on intra-EU labour mobility 2020”, European Commission, Brussels.
  • Furlanetto, F. and Robstad, Ø. (2019) “Immigration and the macroeconomy: Some new empirical evidence”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 34: 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2019.02.006
  • Ghosh, S. and Weinstein, A. (2021) “The impact of emigration on source countries”, Kourtit, K., Newbold, B., Nijkamp, P. and Partridge, M. (eds.) The economic geography of cross-border migration, Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48291-6
  • Gómez, M.G. and Giráldez, M.S.O. (2011) “The causality between economic growth and immigration in Germany and Switzerland”, The Economic and Social Review, 42(3): 271-287.
  • Gómez, M.G. and Giráldez, M.S.O. (2017) “The causality between economic growth and immigration in EU/EFTA member states”, Universidade de Vigo Departamento de Economía Aplicada Working Paper: 17/01.
  • Ha, W., Yi, J. and Zhang, J. (2016) “Brain drain, brain gain, and economic growth in China”, China Economic Review, 38:322-337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2015.02.005
  • Harris, J.R. and Todaro, M.P. (1970) “Migration, unemployment and development: a two-sector analysis”, The American Economic Review, 60(1): 126-142
  • Huber, P. and Tondl, G. (2012) “Migration and regional convergence in the European Union”, Empirica, 39(4): 439-460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-012-9199-2
  • Islam, F., Khan, S. and Rashid, S. (2012) “Immigration and economic growth: further evidence from US data”, Review of Applied Economics, 8(1): 69-78.
  • Kahanec, M. and Pytliková, M. (2017) “The economic impact of east–west migration on the European Union”, Empirica, 44(3): 407-434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-017-9370-x
  • Kang, Y. and Kim, B.Y. (2018) “Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?”, Applied Economics 50(46): 4968-4984. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1466987
  • Kemnitz, A. (2001) “Endogenous growth and the gains from immigration”, Economics Letters, 72(2): 215-218. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(01)00434-7
  • Kónya, L. (2006) “Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach”, Economic Modelling, 23(6): 978-992.
  • Langella, M. and Manning, A. (2021) “Income and the desire to migrate”, Centre for Economic Performance London School of Economics and Political Science. No.1794.
  • Lee, E.S. (1966) “A Theory of migration”, Demography, 3(1): 47-57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
  • Lewis, W.A. (1954) “Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour”, Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies”, 22: 139-191. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x
  • Lucas, Jr R.E. (1988) “On the mechanics of economic development”, Journal of monetary economics, 22(1): 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
  • Lundborg, P. and Segerstrom, P.S. (2000) “International migration and growth in developed countries: a theoretical analysis”, Economica, 67(268): 579-604. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0335.00225
  • Lundborg, P. and Segerstrom, P.S. (2002) “The growth and welfare effects of international mass migration”, Journal of International Economics, 56(1): 177-204. Mabogunje, A.L. (1970) “Systems approach to a theory of rural‐urban migration”, Geographical analysis, 2(1): 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1970.tb00140.x
  • Manole, S., Pănoiu, L. and Păunescu, A. (2017) “Impact of migration upon a receiving country's economic development”, Amfiteatru Economic, 19(46): 670-681.
  • Mayda, A.M. (2010) “International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows”, Journal of population economics, 23(4):1249-1274.
  • Melegh, A. (2012) “Net migration and historical development in Southeastern Europe since 1950”, The Hungarian historical review: new series of Acta Historica Academiae Scientiarum Hungaricae 1(3-4):415-453.
  • Morawska, E. (1990) “The sociology and historiography of immigration” Yans-McLaughlin, V.(eds.) Immigration Reconsidered: History, Sociology, and Politics, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Morley, B. (2006) “Causality between economic growth and immigration: an ARDL bounds testing approach”, Economics Letters, 90(1): 72-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.07.008
  • Murat, M. (2019), “Links between emigration, income and development”, IE - 60ª RSA - Università di Palermo.
  • Ortega, F. and Peri, G. (2013) “The effect of income and immigration policies on international migration”, Migration Studies, 1(1): 47-74. https://doi.org/10.1093/migration/mns004
  • Ozcan, B., Apergis, N. and Shahbaz, M. (2018) “A revisit of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Turkey: new evidence from bootstrap rolling window causality”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 25(32): 32381-32394.
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008) “A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105-127.
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Yamagata, T. (2008) “Testing slope homogeneity in large panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1): 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Phillips, P.C., Shi, S. and Yu, J. (2015) “Testing for multiple bubbles: historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 500”, International Economic Review 56(4): 1043-1078.
  • Piore, M.J. (1979) “Birds of Passage: Migrant Labor and Industrial Societies”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Ravenstein, E. G. (1885) “The laws of migration”, Journal of the statistical society of London, 48(2): 167-235.
  • Rotte, R., Vogler, M. and Zimmermann, K.F. (1997) “South–north refugee migration: lessons for development cooperation”, Review of Development Economics, 1(1): 99-115. Sassen, S. (1988) “The mobility of labor and capital: A study in international investment and labor flow”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Schreiner, J. (2008) “Labor markets in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European EU member states: general trends and migration effects”, Focus on European Economic Integration, 1(08):82-99.
  • Scott, F.D. (1960) “The study of the effects of emigration”, Scandinavian Economic History Review, 8(2): 161-174. https://doi.org/10.1080/03585522.1960.10411428 Șerban, A.C., Aceleanu, M.I., Dospinescu, A.S., Țirca, D.M. and Novo-Corti, I. (2020) “The impact of EU immigration on economic growth through the skill composition channel”, Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(2): 479-503. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.11954
  • Sjaastad, L.A. (1962) “The costs and returns of human migration”, Journal of political Economy, 70(5, Part 2): 80-93. https://doi.org/10.1086/258726
  • Stark, O. and Bloom, D.E. (1985) “The new economics of labor migration”, The american Economic review, 75(2): 173-178.
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  • Svejnar, J. (2002) “Transition economies: performance and challenges”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1): 3-28. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330027058
  • Tabassum, S., Quddoos, A., Yaseen, M.R. and Sardar, A. (2017) “The relationship between capital flight, labor migration and economic growth”, European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 6(4): 594-600.
  • Tang, C.F. (2008) “A re-examination of the role of FDI and exports in Malaysia’s economic growth: a time series analysis 1970-2006”, International Journal of Management Studies, 15:47–67.
  • Tipayalai, K .(2020) “Impact of international labor migration on regional economic growth in Thailand”, Journal of Economic Structures, 9(1): 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00192-7
  • Todaro, M. P. (1969) “A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries”, The American economic review, 59(1): 138-148.
  • Torben, M. (2007), “Endogenous growth and gains from skilled immigration”, MPRA Paper 2167, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2167/. Accessed 26 October 2021.
  • Vogler, M. and Rotte, R. (2000) “The effects of development on migration: theoretical issues and new empirical evidence”, Journal of Population Economics 13(3): 485-508.
  • Walerych, M. (2020) “The economic effects of emigration: a literature review”, Nierówności społeczne a wzrost gospodarczy, (62): 121-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.15584/nsawg.2020.2.8
  • Walz, U. (1993) “On the growth (rate) effects of migration”, Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge No 24, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen. Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. Tübingen.
  • Yilanci, V. and Kilci, E.N. (2021) “The role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in predicting prices of precious metals: evidence from a time-varying bootstrap causality test”, Resources Policy, 72: 102039. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102039
  • Yilanci, V. and Ozgur, O. (2019) “Testing the environmental Kuznets curve for G7 countries: evidence from a bootstrap panel causality test in rolling Windows”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(24): 24795-24805. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05745-3
  • Zelinsky, W. (1971) “The hypothesis of the mobility transition”, Geographical review, 61(2): 219-249.
  • Zellner, A. (1962) “An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias”, Journal of the American statistical Association, 57(298): 348-368.
Toplam 93 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mürşit Recepoğlu 0000-0002-6861-2607

Yayımlanma Tarihi 8 Ekim 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Recepoğlu, M. (2022). EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(3), 438-459. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1130978
AMA Recepoğlu M. EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS. Journal of Management and Economics Research. Ekim 2022;20(3):438-459. doi:10.11611/yead.1130978
Chicago Recepoğlu, Mürşit. “EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20, sy. 3 (Ekim 2022): 438-59. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1130978.
EndNote Recepoğlu M (01 Ekim 2022) EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20 3 438–459.
IEEE M. Recepoğlu, “EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS”, Journal of Management and Economics Research, c. 20, sy. 3, ss. 438–459, 2022, doi: 10.11611/yead.1130978.
ISNAD Recepoğlu, Mürşit. “EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS”. Journal of Management and Economics Research 20/3 (Ekim 2022), 438-459. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1130978.
JAMA Recepoğlu M. EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2022;20:438–459.
MLA Recepoğlu, Mürşit. “EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS”. Journal of Management and Economics Research, c. 20, sy. 3, 2022, ss. 438-59, doi:10.11611/yead.1130978.
Vancouver Recepoğlu M. EMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EUROPEAN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TEST IN ROLLING WINDOWS. Journal of Management and Economics Research. 2022;20(3):438-59.