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Türkiye'nin Demografik Temettüsü Var mı? Düzey 2 Analizi

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 156 - 166, 21.01.2025

Seda Ertürk , Selçuk Koç

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Türkiye’de nüfus yaşlanmaya devam ettikçe, çalışma çağındaki nüfusun toplam nüfus içindeki payı da azalmaya başlamıştır. Ancak ülkenin nüfusu yaşlanırken çalışma çağındaki nüfusun payının en fazla 2/3 olması demografik bir fırsat penceresi oluştururken ekonomik büyüme için bir demografik temettü elde edeceği anlamına gelebilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin farklı doğurganlık oranlarına sahip NUTS 2 bölgelerinde 2023-2050 yılları için demografik temettü projeksiyon analizi ile hesaplanmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin 2023 yılında demografik temettü sürecine girdiği ve 2036-2037 yıllarında zirve yapabileceği tahmin edilmektedir. 2050 yılına kadar bu sürecin devam edeceği tahmin edilmektedir. NUTS 2 bölgeleri incelendiğinde bazı bölgelerin TR31 (İzmir) ve TR62 (Adana-Mersin) en yüksek demografik temettü elde etmesi öngörülmektedir. Bu bölgelerde temettünün 2050 yılına kadar devam edileceği tahmin edilirken, doğurganlık oranının düşük seyrettiği TR83 (Samsun, Tokat, Çorum, Amasya) bölgesinde 2044 yılına kadar süreceği ve demografik fırsat penceresinin kapancağı öngörülmektedir. Bu bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin demografik fırsat penceresinden en iyi yararlanabilmesi için beşeri sermaye yatırımlarını artırması, iş gücüne katılımı teşvik eden politikalar geliştirmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Aksi durumda, yaşlanan nüfusa sahip olan Türkiye için ekonomik büyüme potansiyelinin azalacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

demographic dividend demographic window of opportunity population ageing

References

  • African Union Commission. (2018). Africa's Development Dynamics 2018 Growth, Jobs and Inequalities: Growth, Jobs and Inequalities. OECD Publishing.
  • Ahmad, M., & Khan, R. E. A. (2019). Does demographic transition with human capital dynamics matter for economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach to GMM. Social Indicators Research, 142, 753-772.
  • Amiri, A., & Ventelou, B. (2012). Granger causality between total expenditure on health and GDP in OECD: Evidence from the Toda–Yamamoto approach. Economics Letters, 116(3), 541-544.
  • Barsukov, V. N. (2019). From the demographic dividend to population ageing: World trends in the system-wide transition. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 12(4), 167-182.
  • Birdsall, N., Kelley, A. C., & Sinding, S. (Eds.). (2001). Population matters: demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. OUP Oxford.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2003). How Demographic Change can Bolster Economic Performance in Developing Countries. World Economics, 4(4), 1-14.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition. NBER Working Paper, (w8685).
  • Bloom, D. E., Humair, S., Rosenberg, L., Sevilla, J. P., & Trussell, J. (2013). A demographic dividend for sub-Saharan Africa: Source, magnitude, and realization (No. 7855). IZA Discussion Papers.
  • Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2017). Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. Journal of Demographic Economics, 83(1), 63-76.
  • Bloom, D. E., Sachs, J. D., Collier, P., & Udry, C. (1998). Geography, demography, and economic growth in Africa. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1998(2), 207-295.
  • Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
  • Braendle, T., & Colombier, C. (2016). What drives public health care expenditure growth? Evidence from Swiss cantons, 1970–2012. Health Policy, 120(9), 1051-1060.
  • Cai, F. (2016). Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China. In Debating the Lewis turning point in China (pp. 17-29). Routledge.
  • Cai, F. (2020). The second demographic dividend as a driver of china's growth. China & World Economy, 28(5), 26-44.
  • Chen, X., & Li, J. (2023). Facilitating knowledge-driven economic and social development: The significance of demographic transformation in tourism villages in China. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1-29.
  • Cooper, R. N. (2008). Global imbalances: globalization, demography, and sustainability. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 93-112.
  • Crombach, L., & Smits, J. (2022). The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries. Social Indicators Research, 161(1), 171-189.
  • Cutler, D. M., Poterba, J. M., Sheiner, L. M., Summers, L. H., & Akerlof, G. A. (1990). An aging society: opportunity or challenge?. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1990(1), 1-73.
  • Eberhardt, L. L. (1987). Population projections from simple models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 103-118.
  • Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2023). The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 25(45), 1324-1335.
  • Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2023a). Calculation of Cost of Early Retirement in Turkey. 47th EBES Congress, Berlin
  • Gerdtham, U. G., Søgaard, J., Andersson, F., & Jönsson, B. (1992). An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries. Journal of health economics, 11(1), 63-84.
  • Gomez, R., & De Cos, P. H. (2008). Does population ageing promote faster economic growth?. Review of Income and Wealth, 54(3), 350-372.
  • Ha, J., & Lee, S. H. (2016). Demographic dividend and Asia’s economic convergence towards the US. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 8, 28-41.
  • Islam, M. M. (2020). Demographic transition in Sultanate of Oman: emerging demographic dividend and challenges. Middle East Fertility Society Journal, 25(1), 7.
  • Kim, I. K. (1996). Demographic transition and population aging in Korea. Korea journal of population and development, 27-40.
  • Lee, R. D., Mason, A., & Miller, T. (1997). Saving, wealth, and the demographic transition in East Asia. Population change and economic development in East Asia: challenges met, opportunities seized, Stanford University Press.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demographic dividend?. Finance and development, 43(3), 16.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2010). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. European Journal of Population= Revue Europeenne de Demographie, 26(2), 159.
  • Lee, Y. Y., & Lee, S. S. Y. (2013). Policy implications for inclusive growth in the Republic of Korea. Korea and the World Economy, 14(3), 607-651.
  • Lutz, W., & Kc, S. (2010). Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554), 2779-2791. Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: what have we learned from the East Asia experience?. Applied Population and Policy, 1(1), 3-14.
  • Mason, A. (2005, August). Demographic transition and demographic dividends in developed and developing countries. In United Nations expert group meeting on social and economic implications of changing population age structures (Vol. 31, No. 5). New York: United Nations, Population Division.
  • Mason, A., & Kinugasa, T. (2008). East Asian economic development: two demographic dividends. Journal of Asian economics, 19(5-6), 389-399.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2006). Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend. Genus, 11-35.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2007). Transfers, capital, and consumption over the demographic transition. Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, 6, 128-162.
  • McNicoll, G. (2006). Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 32(1), 1-25.
  • Navaneetham, K., & Dharmalingam, A. (2012). A review of age structural transition and demographic dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and challenges. Journal of Population Ageing, 5, 281-298.
  • Ogawa, N., Mason, A., Chawla, A., & Matsukura, R. (2010). Japan's unprecedented aging and changing intergenerational transfers. In The economic consequences of demographic change in East Asia. University of Chicago Press.
  • Pool, I. (2007). Demographic dividends: Determinants of development or merely windows of opportunity. Ageing Horizons, 7(2007), 28-35.
  • Ross, J. L., & Iannotta, J. G. (Eds.). (2002). Equality of Opportunity and the Importance of Place: Summary of a Workshop. National Academies Press.
  • Shekar, M., Yazbeck, A., Hasan, R., & Bakilana, A. (2016). Population and development in the Sahel: policy choices to catalyze a demographic dividend. World Bank.
  • Thompson, W.S. (1929): "Population." American Journal of Sociology 34 (6), 959-75.
  • United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume II-Demographic Profiles. UN.
  • Vallin, J. (2005). The demographic window: an opportunity to be seized. Asian Population Studies, 1(2), 149-167.
  • Wang, K. M. (2011). Health care expenditure and economic growth: Quantile panel-type analysis. Economic modelling, 28(4), 1536-1549.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2023). Simple approaches to nonlinear difference-in-differences with panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 26(3), C31-C66.
  • Yip, P. S., Cheung, K. S., Law, S. C., Chi, I., & Robine, J. M. (2010). The demographic window and economic dependency ratio in the Hong Kong SAR. Asian Population Studies, 6(2), 241-260.

Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 156 - 166, 21.01.2025

Seda Ertürk , Selçuk Koç

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382
Cited By: 1

Abstract

As the population in Turkey continues to age, the share of the working-age population in the total population has also started to decline. However, the fact that the share of the working-age population is at most 2/3 while the country's population is ageing may occur a demographic window of opportunity and a demographic dividend for economic growth. In this study, the demographic dividend for 2023-2050 in NUTS 2 regions of Turkey with different fertility rates is calculated by projection analysis. According to the results of the study, it is estimated that Turkey entered the demographic dividend process in 2023 and may peak in 2036-2037. This trend is expected to persist until 2050. An analysis of NUTS 2 regions suggests that certain areas, such as TR31 (İzmir) and TR62 (Adana-Mersin), are projected to achieve the highest demographic dividend. This trend is expected to persist until 2050. An analysis of NUTS 2 regions suggests that certain areas, such as TR31 (İzmir) and TR62 (Adana-Mersin), are projected to achieve the highest demographic dividend. This trend is expected to persist until 2050. An analysis of NUTS 2 regions suggests that certain areas, such as TR31 (İzmir) and TR62 (Adana-Mersin), are projected to achieve the highest demographic dividend.

Keywords

demographic dividend demographic window of opportunity population ageing

References

  • African Union Commission. (2018). Africa's Development Dynamics 2018 Growth, Jobs and Inequalities: Growth, Jobs and Inequalities. OECD Publishing.
  • Ahmad, M., & Khan, R. E. A. (2019). Does demographic transition with human capital dynamics matter for economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach to GMM. Social Indicators Research, 142, 753-772.
  • Amiri, A., & Ventelou, B. (2012). Granger causality between total expenditure on health and GDP in OECD: Evidence from the Toda–Yamamoto approach. Economics Letters, 116(3), 541-544.
  • Barsukov, V. N. (2019). From the demographic dividend to population ageing: World trends in the system-wide transition. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 12(4), 167-182.
  • Birdsall, N., Kelley, A. C., & Sinding, S. (Eds.). (2001). Population matters: demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. OUP Oxford.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2003). How Demographic Change can Bolster Economic Performance in Developing Countries. World Economics, 4(4), 1-14.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition. NBER Working Paper, (w8685).
  • Bloom, D. E., Humair, S., Rosenberg, L., Sevilla, J. P., & Trussell, J. (2013). A demographic dividend for sub-Saharan Africa: Source, magnitude, and realization (No. 7855). IZA Discussion Papers.
  • Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2017). Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. Journal of Demographic Economics, 83(1), 63-76.
  • Bloom, D. E., Sachs, J. D., Collier, P., & Udry, C. (1998). Geography, demography, and economic growth in Africa. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1998(2), 207-295.
  • Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
  • Braendle, T., & Colombier, C. (2016). What drives public health care expenditure growth? Evidence from Swiss cantons, 1970–2012. Health Policy, 120(9), 1051-1060.
  • Cai, F. (2016). Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China. In Debating the Lewis turning point in China (pp. 17-29). Routledge.
  • Cai, F. (2020). The second demographic dividend as a driver of china's growth. China & World Economy, 28(5), 26-44.
  • Chen, X., & Li, J. (2023). Facilitating knowledge-driven economic and social development: The significance of demographic transformation in tourism villages in China. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 1-29.
  • Cooper, R. N. (2008). Global imbalances: globalization, demography, and sustainability. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 93-112.
  • Crombach, L., & Smits, J. (2022). The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries. Social Indicators Research, 161(1), 171-189.
  • Cutler, D. M., Poterba, J. M., Sheiner, L. M., Summers, L. H., & Akerlof, G. A. (1990). An aging society: opportunity or challenge?. Brookings papers on economic activity, 1990(1), 1-73.
  • Eberhardt, L. L. (1987). Population projections from simple models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 103-118.
  • Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2023). The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 25(45), 1324-1335.
  • Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2023a). Calculation of Cost of Early Retirement in Turkey. 47th EBES Congress, Berlin
  • Gerdtham, U. G., Søgaard, J., Andersson, F., & Jönsson, B. (1992). An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries. Journal of health economics, 11(1), 63-84.
  • Gomez, R., & De Cos, P. H. (2008). Does population ageing promote faster economic growth?. Review of Income and Wealth, 54(3), 350-372.
  • Ha, J., & Lee, S. H. (2016). Demographic dividend and Asia’s economic convergence towards the US. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 8, 28-41.
  • Islam, M. M. (2020). Demographic transition in Sultanate of Oman: emerging demographic dividend and challenges. Middle East Fertility Society Journal, 25(1), 7.
  • Kim, I. K. (1996). Demographic transition and population aging in Korea. Korea journal of population and development, 27-40.
  • Lee, R. D., Mason, A., & Miller, T. (1997). Saving, wealth, and the demographic transition in East Asia. Population change and economic development in East Asia: challenges met, opportunities seized, Stanford University Press.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demographic dividend?. Finance and development, 43(3), 16.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2010). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. European Journal of Population= Revue Europeenne de Demographie, 26(2), 159.
  • Lee, Y. Y., & Lee, S. S. Y. (2013). Policy implications for inclusive growth in the Republic of Korea. Korea and the World Economy, 14(3), 607-651.
  • Lutz, W., & Kc, S. (2010). Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554), 2779-2791. Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: what have we learned from the East Asia experience?. Applied Population and Policy, 1(1), 3-14.
  • Mason, A. (2005, August). Demographic transition and demographic dividends in developed and developing countries. In United Nations expert group meeting on social and economic implications of changing population age structures (Vol. 31, No. 5). New York: United Nations, Population Division.
  • Mason, A., & Kinugasa, T. (2008). East Asian economic development: two demographic dividends. Journal of Asian economics, 19(5-6), 389-399.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2006). Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: capturing the second demographic dividend. Genus, 11-35.
  • Mason, A., & Lee, R. (2007). Transfers, capital, and consumption over the demographic transition. Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, 6, 128-162.
  • McNicoll, G. (2006). Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 32(1), 1-25.
  • Navaneetham, K., & Dharmalingam, A. (2012). A review of age structural transition and demographic dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and challenges. Journal of Population Ageing, 5, 281-298.
  • Ogawa, N., Mason, A., Chawla, A., & Matsukura, R. (2010). Japan's unprecedented aging and changing intergenerational transfers. In The economic consequences of demographic change in East Asia. University of Chicago Press.
  • Pool, I. (2007). Demographic dividends: Determinants of development or merely windows of opportunity. Ageing Horizons, 7(2007), 28-35.
  • Ross, J. L., & Iannotta, J. G. (Eds.). (2002). Equality of Opportunity and the Importance of Place: Summary of a Workshop. National Academies Press.
  • Shekar, M., Yazbeck, A., Hasan, R., & Bakilana, A. (2016). Population and development in the Sahel: policy choices to catalyze a demographic dividend. World Bank.
  • Thompson, W.S. (1929): "Population." American Journal of Sociology 34 (6), 959-75.
  • United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume II-Demographic Profiles. UN.
  • Vallin, J. (2005). The demographic window: an opportunity to be seized. Asian Population Studies, 1(2), 149-167.
  • Wang, K. M. (2011). Health care expenditure and economic growth: Quantile panel-type analysis. Economic modelling, 28(4), 1536-1549.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2023). Simple approaches to nonlinear difference-in-differences with panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 26(3), C31-C66.
  • Yip, P. S., Cheung, K. S., Law, S. C., Chi, I., & Robine, J. M. (2010). The demographic window and economic dependency ratio in the Hong Kong SAR. Asian Population Studies, 6(2), 241-260.
There are 48 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economic Theory (Other)
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Seda Ertürk 0000-0001-5505-8750

Selçuk Koç 0000-0001-7451-2699

Early Pub Date January 19, 2025
Publication Date January 21, 2025
Submission Date October 2, 2024
Acceptance Date November 14, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 26 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2025). Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(1), 156-166. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

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https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1675761
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