Döviz Piyasası Baskı Endeksi ve Dolarizasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Gökhan Konat; Şebnem Taş; Tayfur Bayat

doi:10.37880/cumuiibf.1065378

TR EN

Döviz Piyasası Baskı Endeksi ve Dolarizasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Ulusal para birimi üzerindeki herhangi bir uzun süreli baskı durumu, özellikle dış şoklara eğilimli gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri için ciddi sonuçlar doğurabilmektedir. Herhangi bir kriz durumundan kaçınabilmek için bu tür baskıların zamanlamasını ve yoğunluğunu bilmek önem arz etmektedir. Bu kapsamda literatürde özellikle yönetilen dalgalı döviz kuru sistemini takip eden ekonomilerde ulusal para birimi üzerindeki baskıların seviyesini doğru bir şekilde tespit edebilmek amacıyla döviz kurlarındaki, döviz rezervlerindeki ve/veya faiz oranlarındaki değişikliklerin ağırlıklı toplamı ile ölçülen döviz piyasası baskı endeksi kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada ise Türkiye ekonomisinde 2005:12-2021:5 döneminde olası bir döviz krizinin işaretini veren döviz piyasası baskı endeksi ile yabancı paranın hem ödeme aracı hem de değer saklama aracı şeklinde yoğun kullanımı olarak ifade edilen dolarizasyon arasındaki ilişki fourier alanda ile incelenmektedir. Dolarizasyon değişkeni için döviz tevdiat hesaplarının M2 para arzına oranı esas alınmakta, döviz piyasası baskı endeksi için ise literatürde yer alan çalışmalara paralel olarak nominal döviz kuru (Amerikan Doları/Türk Lirası) ve TCMB brüt döviz rezervlerindeki (Milyon Amerikan Doları) değişimin ağırlıklandırılmış toplamı kullanılmaktadır. Söz konusu değişkenlere ait aylık veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası resmi veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Ampirik analizler neticesinde döviz piyasası baskı endeksi ile dolarizasyon arasında birbirini besleyen bir süreç olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Relationship Between Exchange Market Pressure Index and Dollarization: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Any prolonged pressure on the national currency can have serious consequences, especially for emerging economies that are prone to external shocks. It is important to know the timing and intensity of such pressures in order to avoid any crisis situation. In this context, especially in economies that follow the managed floating exchange rate system, the foreign exchange market pressure index is used in the literature in order to accurately determine the level of pressure on the national currency which measured by the weighted sum of changes in exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and/or interest rates. In this study, the relationship between the foreign exchange market pressure index, which signals a possible currency crisis in the Turkish economy in the period of 2005:12-2021:5, and dollarization, which is expressed as the intensive use of foreign currency as both a payment instrument and a store of value, is examined in the Fourier field. For the dollarization variable, the ratio of exchange deposit accounts to the M2 money supply is taken as a basis, and for the exchange market pressure index, in parallel with the studies in the literature, the weighted sum of the change in the nominal exchange rate (USD/Turkish Lira) and the CBRT gross foreign exchange reserves (Million USD) is used. The monthly data of the said variables were obtained from the CBRT official database. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been concluded that there is a process that feeds each other between the foreign exchange market pressure index and dollarization.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Economics

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Gökhan Konat
0000-0002-0964-7893
Türkiye

Şebnem Taş ^*
0000-0002-7303-3407
Türkiye

Tayfur Bayat
0000-0002-4427-0999
Türkiye

Publication Date

April 19, 2022

Submission Date

January 30, 2022

Acceptance Date

February 8, 2022

Published in Issue

Year 2022 Volume: 23 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1065378

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA67UT93GJ

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Konat, G., Taş, Ş., & Bayat, T. (2022). Döviz Piyasası Baskı Endeksi ve Dolarizasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 575-584. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1065378

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Döviz Piyasası Baskı Endeksi ve Dolarizasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Döviz Piyasası Baskı Endeksi ve Dolarizasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Relationship Between Exchange Market Pressure Index and Dollarization: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite

Cited By

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Yabancı Para Cinsinden Borçlanmanın Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türk İmalat Sanayi Örneği

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