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Türkiye’de Karbon Histerisinin Geçerliliğinin RALS-LM Birim Kök Testi ile Analizi

Year 2024, , 69 - 80, 31.01.2024

Kerem Fırat Coşkun , Özge Buzdağlı

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1334894

Abstract

Günümüzde küresel iklim değişikliği önemli bir sorun haline gelmiştir. İklim değişikliğinin en önemli nedenleri arasında CO2 emisyonlarının yer aldığı bilinmektedir. Türkiye’nin de dahil olduğu ve 100’den fazla ülkenin imzaladığı Kyoto Protokolü’nde CO2 emisyonlarının azaltılmasına yönelik hedefler belirlenmiştir. Bu protokolün güncel hali olan Paris anlaşması ve akabinde uluslararası düzeyde yapılan diğer anlaşmalara rağmen, CO2 emisyonlarının azaltılması hedeflerine ulaşılamadığı, tam aksine zamanla artış göstermeye devam ettiği görülmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu artış trendi işsizlik histerisi hipotezindeki gibi bir histeri etkisinin varlığı ihtimalini akla getirmektedir. Histeri etkisi ele alınan makroekonomik değişkene gelen şokun etkisinin kalıcı olduğunu diğer bir ifadeyle şokun etkisinin geçmesine rağmen serinin eski denge düzeyine dönememesini ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada da CO2 emisyonları histeri hipotezi açısından ele alınmıştır. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de karbon histerisinin geçerli olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Literatürde histeri etkisi birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada Meng vd. (2017) tarafından geliştirilen kalıntılarla genişletilmiş RALS-LM birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Bu testin özelliği geleneksel birim kök testlerinin aksine kalıntıların normal dağılıma uymadığı durumları dikkate almasıdır. Analizde 1960-2021 dönemi için metrik ton cinsinden CO2 emisyon serisine ait yıllık verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarında CO2 emisyon serisinin durağan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedenle Türkiye’de karbon histerisinin geçerli olmadığı söylenebilir. Dolayısıyla Türkiye’de CO2 emisyonlarının azaltılması için uygulanan politikaların sadece geçici bir etkiye sahip olduğu ifade edilebilir.

Keywords

Karbon Histerisi RALS-LM Birim Kök Testi Türkiye

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The Analysis of The Validity of Carbon Hysteresis in Türkiye with RALS-LM Unit Root Test

Year 2024, , 69 - 80, 31.01.2024

Kerem Fırat Coşkun , Özge Buzdağlı

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1334894

Abstract

Today, global climate change has become an important problem. It is well known that CO2 emissions are one of the most important causes of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol, in which Turkey is also a participant and which has been signed by more than 100 countries, has set targets for reducing CO2 emissions. Despite the Paris Agreement, the current version of this protocol, and other agreements that were subsequently reached at the international level, it can be seen that the targets for reducing CO2 emissions have not been met, but on the contrary, they continue to increase over time. Therefore, this upward trend raises the possibility of a hysteresis effect as in the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. The hysteresis effect means that the effect of the shock on the macroeconomic variable addressed is permanent, that is, the series cannot return to its previous equilibrium level even after the effect of the shock has passed. In this study, CO2 emissions are discussed from the point of view of the hysteresis hypothesis. For this purpose, it was investigated whether carbon hysteresis is valid in Turkey. In the literature, the hysteresis effect is analysed with unit root tests. In this study, the extended RALS-LM unit root test with residuals developed by Meng et al. (2017) is used. The distinctive feature of this test is that, unlike traditional unit root tests, it accounts for situations in which the residuals do not conform to the normal distribution. Annual CO2 emission series data in metric tons for the period 1960-2021 were used for the analysis. In the analysis results, it was found that the CO2 emission series is stationary. For this reason, it can be said that there is no carbon hysteresis in Turkey. Therefore, it can be concluded that the policies implemented to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey have only a temporary effect.

Keywords

Carbon Hysteresis RALS-LM Unit Root Test Turkey

References

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There are 82 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economic Theory (Other)
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Kerem Fırat Coşkun 0000-0001-9227-2414

Özge Buzdağlı 0000-0002-2798-9889

Early Pub Date January 26, 2024
Publication Date January 31, 2024
Submission Date July 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Coşkun, K. F., & Buzdağlı, Ö. (2024). Türkiye’de Karbon Histerisinin Geçerliliğinin RALS-LM Birim Kök Testi ile Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(1), 69-80. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1334894

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