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Year 2015, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 195 - 214, 07.09.2015

Murat Belke , Süleyman Bolat , Süreyya Kovacı

Abstract

This study tests the causal relationship between the budget deficit and current account deficit for nine European countries we selected by employing the panel Granger causality analysis developed by Kónya (2006). The econometric method we used in this study takes into account cross section dependence. Panel Granger test results under the cross sectional dependence show that there is a validity of unidirectional causality from budget deficit to current account deficit pointing as twin deficit hypothesis supported by Keynesian view for Austria, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. In the empirical results, we found that there is no relationship between budget

Keywords

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References

  • ARIZE, Augustine C. ve John MALINDRETOS (2008), "Dynamic Linkages and Granger Causality between Trade and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Africa”, African Journal of Accounting, Economics, Finance and Banking Research, 2(2), 1-19.
  • BAHARUMSHAH, Ahmad Zubaidi, Evan LAU ve Ahmed M. KHALID (2006), "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis Using VARs and Variance Decomposition", Journal of The Asia Pacific Economy, 11(3), 331-354.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1974), "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth", The Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1976), "Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security and The Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: Reply to Feldstein and Buchanan", The Journal of Political Economy, 84(2), 343-350.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1989), "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 37-54.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1996), "Reflections on Ricardian Equivalence", NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5502; 1-19.
  • BERNHEIM, B. Douglas (1987), "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence", NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2, 263-304.
  • BEETSMA, Roel, GIULIODORI, Massimo ve Franc KLAASSEN (2008), “The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2-3), 414–423.
  • BLECKER, Robert A. (1992), Beyond the Twin Deficits: A Trade Strategy for the 1990s, Economic Policy Institute Series, M. E. Sharpe, Armonk, New York, USA.
  • BREUSCH, Trevor. S. ve Adrian Rodney PAGAN (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. ve Richard E. WAGNER (1967), Public Debt in A Democratic Society, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington D.C., USA.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. (1976), "Barro on The Ricardian Equivalence Theorem", The Journal of Political Economy, 84(2), 337-342.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. ve Richard E. WAGNER (1977), Democracy in Deficit the Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, Liberty Fund, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. (1999), Public Principles of Public Debt A Defence And Restatement, Liberty Fund, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
  • CHURCHMAN, Nancy Anne (2001), David Ricardo on Public Debt, Palgrave, New York, USA.
  • DALY, Vince ve Jalal U. SIDDIKI (2009), "The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointegration Analysis with Regime Shifts", Applied Economic Letters, 16(11), 1155-1164.
  • DARRAT, Ali F. (1988), "Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?", Southern Economic Journal, 54(4), 879-887.
  • ELMENDORF, Douglas W. ve MANKIW, N.Gregory (1998), "Government Debt", NBER Working Paper, No. 6470, 1-71.
  • HATEMI-J, Abdulnasser ve Ghazi SHUKUR (2002). "Multivariate-Based Causality Tests of Twin Deficits in The US", Journal of Applied Statistics, 29(6), 817-824.
  • HILLMAN, Arye L. (2009), Public Finance and Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • HOYOS, Rafael E. De and Vasilis SARAFIDIS (2006), “Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel-Data Models”, The Stata Journal, 6(4): 482–496.
  • ISLAM, M. Faizul (1998), "Brazil’s Twin Deficits: An Empirical Examination", Atlantic Economic Journal, 26(2), 121-128.
  • KALOU, Sofia ve Suzanna-Maria PALEOLOGOU (2012), “The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU Country”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(2), 230–241.
  • KAUFMANN, Sylvia, SCHARLER, Johann ve Georg WINCKLER (2002), "The Austrian Current Account Deficit: Driven by Twin Deficits or by Intertemporal Expenditure Allocation?", Empirical Economics, 27(3), 529-542.
  • KEARNEY, Colm ve Mehdi Monadjemi (1990), “Fiscal Policy and Current Account Performance: International Evidence on the Twin Deficits”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(2), 197–219.
  • KÓNYA, László (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling. 23(6): 978–992.
  • LATIF-ZAMAN, Nazma ve Maria N. DACOSTA (1990), "The Budget Deficit and The Trade Deficit: Insights into This Relationship", Eastern Economic Journal, 16(4), 349-354.
  • LAU, Evan ve Ahmad Zubaidi BAHARUMSHAH (2006), "Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SEACEN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis of Relationships Between Public Budget and Current Account Deficits", Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(2), 213-226.
  • MAGAZZINO, Cosimo (2012), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Italy”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), 65–80.
  • MANKIW, M. Gregory ve Laurence M. BALL (2011), Macroeconomics and The Financial System, Worth Publishers, New York, USA.
  • MARINHEIRO, Carlos Fonseca (2008), "Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle in Egypt", Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(6), 1041-1056.
  • O'DRISCOLL JR, Gerald P. (1977), "The Ricardian Nonequivalence Theorem", Journal of Political Economy, 85(1), 207-210.
  • PAPADOGONAS, Theodore and Yannis STOURNARAS (2006), “Twin Deficits and Financial Integration in EU Member-States”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(5), 595–602.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Cesifo Working Paper, No.1229, 1–40.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem, ULLAH, Aman ve Takashi YAMAGATA (2008), “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127.
  • RAULT, Christophe ve Antonio AFONSO (2009), “Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU”, Economics Bulletin, 29(2), 1027–1034.
  • SEATER, John J. (1993), "Ricardian Equivalence", Journal of Economic Literature, 31(1), 142-190.
  • SENGONUL, Ahmet (2008), "Different Twin Deficits in Different Time Intervals: Evidence from Turkey", Asian-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 8(2), 139-152.
  • SUMMERS, Lawrence H. (1986), "Debt Problems and Macroeconomic Policies", in Bruce Maclaury and Preston Martin (Ed.), Debt, Financial Stability And Public Policy, A Symposium Sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Wyoming, USA.
  • TRACHANAS, Emmanouil ve Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS (2013), “The Dynamic Linkages of Fiscal and Current Account Deficits: New Evidence from Five Highly Indebted European Countries Accounting for Regime Shifts and Asymmetries”, Economic Modeling, 31, 502–510.
  • VAMVOUKAS, George A. (1999), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Greece”, Applied Economics, 31(9), 1093–1110.
  • XIE, Zixiong ve Shyh-Wei CHEN (2014), “Untangling the Causal Relationship between Government Budget and Current Account Deficits in OECD Countries: Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 31, 95–104.

MALİ AÇIK - CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ ETKİLEŞİMİ: SEÇİLMİŞ AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİ İÇİN NEDENSELLİK YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2015, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 195 - 214, 07.09.2015

Murat Belke , Süleyman Bolat , Süreyya Kovacı

Abstract

Çalışma, bütçe açığı ve cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişkiyi seçilmiş 9 Avrupa Birliği ülkesinde Kónya (2006) tarafından geliştirilen panel Granger nedensellik analizi ile test etmektedir. Analizde kullanılan ekonometrik yöntem yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate almaktadır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında panel Granger testi sonuçları, bütçe açıklarından cari işlemler açığına yönelik tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığını ileri süren İkiz Açık Hipotezi’nin Avusturya, İtalya, Portekiz ve İspanya ekonomileri için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bütçe ve cari işlemler dengesi arasında nedensel bir ilişkinin olmadığını gösteren Ricardocu yaklaşım ise Belçika, Finlandiya ve Fransa için desteklenmiştir. Sonuçlar, yalnızca İrlanda ekonomisi için cari işlemler dengesi ile bütçe dengesi arasında karşılıklı nedensellik öngörürken, Yunanistan’da cari işlemler dengesinden bütçe dengesine doğru bir nedensellik vardır. 

Keywords

Bütçe Açıkları Cari İşlemler Dengesi Ricardocu Denklik

References

  • ARIZE, Augustine C. ve John MALINDRETOS (2008), "Dynamic Linkages and Granger Causality between Trade and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Africa”, African Journal of Accounting, Economics, Finance and Banking Research, 2(2), 1-19.
  • BAHARUMSHAH, Ahmad Zubaidi, Evan LAU ve Ahmed M. KHALID (2006), "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis Using VARs and Variance Decomposition", Journal of The Asia Pacific Economy, 11(3), 331-354.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1974), "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth", The Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1976), "Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security and The Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: Reply to Feldstein and Buchanan", The Journal of Political Economy, 84(2), 343-350.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1989), "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(2), 37-54.
  • BARRO, Robert J. (1996), "Reflections on Ricardian Equivalence", NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5502; 1-19.
  • BERNHEIM, B. Douglas (1987), "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence", NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2, 263-304.
  • BEETSMA, Roel, GIULIODORI, Massimo ve Franc KLAASSEN (2008), “The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2-3), 414–423.
  • BLECKER, Robert A. (1992), Beyond the Twin Deficits: A Trade Strategy for the 1990s, Economic Policy Institute Series, M. E. Sharpe, Armonk, New York, USA.
  • BREUSCH, Trevor. S. ve Adrian Rodney PAGAN (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. ve Richard E. WAGNER (1967), Public Debt in A Democratic Society, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington D.C., USA.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. (1976), "Barro on The Ricardian Equivalence Theorem", The Journal of Political Economy, 84(2), 337-342.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. ve Richard E. WAGNER (1977), Democracy in Deficit the Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, Liberty Fund, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
  • BUCHANAN, James M. (1999), Public Principles of Public Debt A Defence And Restatement, Liberty Fund, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
  • CHURCHMAN, Nancy Anne (2001), David Ricardo on Public Debt, Palgrave, New York, USA.
  • DALY, Vince ve Jalal U. SIDDIKI (2009), "The Twin Deficits in OECD Countries: Cointegration Analysis with Regime Shifts", Applied Economic Letters, 16(11), 1155-1164.
  • DARRAT, Ali F. (1988), "Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?", Southern Economic Journal, 54(4), 879-887.
  • ELMENDORF, Douglas W. ve MANKIW, N.Gregory (1998), "Government Debt", NBER Working Paper, No. 6470, 1-71.
  • HATEMI-J, Abdulnasser ve Ghazi SHUKUR (2002). "Multivariate-Based Causality Tests of Twin Deficits in The US", Journal of Applied Statistics, 29(6), 817-824.
  • HILLMAN, Arye L. (2009), Public Finance and Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • HOYOS, Rafael E. De and Vasilis SARAFIDIS (2006), “Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel-Data Models”, The Stata Journal, 6(4): 482–496.
  • ISLAM, M. Faizul (1998), "Brazil’s Twin Deficits: An Empirical Examination", Atlantic Economic Journal, 26(2), 121-128.
  • KALOU, Sofia ve Suzanna-Maria PALEOLOGOU (2012), “The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU Country”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(2), 230–241.
  • KAUFMANN, Sylvia, SCHARLER, Johann ve Georg WINCKLER (2002), "The Austrian Current Account Deficit: Driven by Twin Deficits or by Intertemporal Expenditure Allocation?", Empirical Economics, 27(3), 529-542.
  • KEARNEY, Colm ve Mehdi Monadjemi (1990), “Fiscal Policy and Current Account Performance: International Evidence on the Twin Deficits”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(2), 197–219.
  • KÓNYA, László (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling. 23(6): 978–992.
  • LATIF-ZAMAN, Nazma ve Maria N. DACOSTA (1990), "The Budget Deficit and The Trade Deficit: Insights into This Relationship", Eastern Economic Journal, 16(4), 349-354.
  • LAU, Evan ve Ahmad Zubaidi BAHARUMSHAH (2006), "Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SEACEN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis of Relationships Between Public Budget and Current Account Deficits", Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(2), 213-226.
  • MAGAZZINO, Cosimo (2012), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Italy”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33(3), 65–80.
  • MANKIW, M. Gregory ve Laurence M. BALL (2011), Macroeconomics and The Financial System, Worth Publishers, New York, USA.
  • MARINHEIRO, Carlos Fonseca (2008), "Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle in Egypt", Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(6), 1041-1056.
  • O'DRISCOLL JR, Gerald P. (1977), "The Ricardian Nonequivalence Theorem", Journal of Political Economy, 85(1), 207-210.
  • PAPADOGONAS, Theodore and Yannis STOURNARAS (2006), “Twin Deficits and Financial Integration in EU Member-States”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(5), 595–602.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Cesifo Working Paper, No.1229, 1–40.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem, ULLAH, Aman ve Takashi YAMAGATA (2008), “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127.
  • RAULT, Christophe ve Antonio AFONSO (2009), “Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU”, Economics Bulletin, 29(2), 1027–1034.
  • SEATER, John J. (1993), "Ricardian Equivalence", Journal of Economic Literature, 31(1), 142-190.
  • SENGONUL, Ahmet (2008), "Different Twin Deficits in Different Time Intervals: Evidence from Turkey", Asian-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 8(2), 139-152.
  • SUMMERS, Lawrence H. (1986), "Debt Problems and Macroeconomic Policies", in Bruce Maclaury and Preston Martin (Ed.), Debt, Financial Stability And Public Policy, A Symposium Sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Wyoming, USA.
  • TRACHANAS, Emmanouil ve Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS (2013), “The Dynamic Linkages of Fiscal and Current Account Deficits: New Evidence from Five Highly Indebted European Countries Accounting for Regime Shifts and Asymmetries”, Economic Modeling, 31, 502–510.
  • VAMVOUKAS, George A. (1999), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Greece”, Applied Economics, 31(9), 1093–1110.
  • XIE, Zixiong ve Shyh-Wei CHEN (2014), “Untangling the Causal Relationship between Government Budget and Current Account Deficits in OECD Countries: Evidence from Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality”, International Review of Economics and Finance, 31, 95–104.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Murat Belke

Süleyman Bolat

Süreyya Kovacı

Publication Date September 7, 2015
Submission Date September 7, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015Volume: 16 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Belke, M., Bolat, S., & Kovacı, S. (2015). MALİ AÇIK - CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ ETKİLEŞİMİ: SEÇİLMİŞ AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİ İÇİN NEDENSELLİK YAKLAŞIMI. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 16(2), 195-214.
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