Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

İŞSİZLİKTE UZUN HAFIZA ETKİSİ VE HİSTERİSİZ HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ

Year 2019, Volume: 20 Issue: 1, 214 - 225, 31.05.2019

İpek Yurttagüler , Sinem Kutlu

Abstract



Ekonomilerin temel iktisadi
göstergelerinden biri olan işsizlik gerek teorik gerekse ampirik literatür
açısından makro iktisadın güncel konuları arasında yer almaktadır. Ekonomik
faaliyet ve üretim düzeyinin çevrimsel bir süreç izlemesi neticesinde
dalgalanmalara maruz kalan işsizlik oranı makro iktisat teorisinin iki temel
yaklaşımı olan ‘doğal oran’ ve ‘histerisiz’ hipotezleri ile açıklanmaktadır. Bu
çerçevede, serilerin bütünleşme derecelerinin belirlenmesine yönelik
ekonometrik tekniklerin kullanıldığı ampirik çalışmalarda işsizliğin durağan
olup olmadığı üzerinde durulmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Karadeniz’i çevreleyen altı
ülke örneğinde işsizliğin uzun hafıza özelliğinin test edilmesi
amaçlanmaktadır. Söz konusu ülkelerin 2003:Q1–2017:Q4 dönemine ilişkin işsizlik
verileri kullanılarak kesirli bütünleşme analizi yardımıyla incelenmektedir.
Çalışmanın bulguları, Rusya ve Ukrayna için geçerli olduğu saptanan histerisiz
hipotezinin diğer ülkelerde ise geçerli olmadığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Doğal Oran İşsizlik Histerisizi Uzun Hafıza ARFIMA

References

  • AKDOĞAN, Kurmaş (2016), “Unemployment Hysteresis and Structural Change in Europe”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper, No: 16/18.
  • ASHLEY, Richard A., Douglas M. PATTERSON (2010). Apparent Long Memory in Time Series as an Artifact of a Time-Varying Mean: Considering Alternatives to the Fractionally Integrated Model. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14 (Supplement 1), 59–87.
  • BAILLIE, Richard T. (1996), “Long Memory Processes and Fractional Integration in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 73, 5-59.
  • BANERJEE, Anindya and Giovanni URGA (2005), “Modelling Structural Breaks, Long Memory and Stock Market Volatility: An Overview”, Journal of Econometrics, 129, 1-34.
  • BARKOULAS, John T., Christopher F. BAUM, (1997).”Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates”. Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, 4, 189-201.
  • BARKOULAS, John T., Christopher F. BAUM (1998), “Fractional Dynamics in Japanese Financial Time Series”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 6, 115-124.
  • BHARDWAJ, Geetesh and Norman R. SWANSON (2006), “An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series”, Journal of Econometrics, 131, 539-578.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier J. (2003), Macroeconomics, NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier J.; SUMMERS, Lawrence H. (1986), “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.1, (Ed.) Stanley Fischer, MIT Press; 15-90.
  • CAPORALE, Guglielmo Maria; GIL-ALANA, Luis A. and LOVCHA, Yuliya (2013), “Testing Unemployment Theories: A Multivariate Long Memory Approach”, Brunel University Economics and Finance Working Paper Series, No.13-29.
  • CRATO, Nuno; ROTHMAN, Philip (1996), “Measuring Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates with Long Memory Models”, East Carolina University Department of Economics Working Papers.
  • CUESTAS, Juan Carlos; GIL-ALANA, Luis A. (2011), “Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies”, Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series, No. 2011005.
  • ESPINOSA-VEGA, Marco; RUSSELL, Steven (1997), “History and Theory of the NAIRU: A Critical Review”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 82(2); 4-25.
  • FAŸ, Gilles, Eric MOULİNES, François ROUEFF, Murad S. TAQQU (2009). “Estimators of Long-Memory: Fourier Versus Wavelets”. Journal of Econometrics, 151, 159–177.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton (1968), “The role of monetary policy”, American Economic Review. 68 (1); 1–17.
  • FUNKE, Michael (1998), “The Long Memory Property of the US Unemployment Rate”, Centre for Economic Forecasting, London Business School Discussion Paper, No. 19-98.
  • GEWEKE, John and Susan PORTER-HUDAK (1983), “The Estimation and Application of Long Memory Time Series Models”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4(4), 221-238.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A. (2001), “The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models”, Applied Economics, 33:10; 1263-1269.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A. (2002), “Modelling the Persistence of Unemployment in Canada”, International Review of Applied Economics, 16:4; 465-477.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A.; HENRY, S. G. Brian (2003), “Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(2); 221-239.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A.; OZDEMIR, Zeynel Abidin and TANSEL, Aysit (2017), “Long memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates”, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper, 2017/5.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. (1980), “Long Memory Relationships and the Aggregation of Dynamic Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 14(2), 227-38.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. and Roselyne JOYEUX (1980), “An Introduction to Long-Memory Time Series Models and Fractional Differencing”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1, 15-39.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. and Zhuanxin DING (1996), “Varieties of Long Memory Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 73, 61-77.
  • HOSKING, Jonathan R.M. (1981), “Fractional Differencing”, Biometrika, 68(1), 165-176.
  • KURITA, Takamitsu (2010), “A Forecasting Model for Japan’s Unemployment Rate”, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 3 (5); 127-134.
  • LAYARD, Richard (1992), “Non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment”, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, 3 Volume Set (Eds.) John Eatwell, Murray Milgate, Peter Newman, London: The Macmillan Press; 39-40.
  • LEÓN-LEDESMA, Miguel; McADAM, Peter (2003), “Unemployment, hysteresis and transition”, European Central Bank, Working Paper 234.
  • LIPSEY, Richard G. (1960), “The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the UK, 1862-1957: A further analysis”, Economica, 27(105); 1-31.
  • MAN, Kasing S. (2003), “Long Memory Time Series and Short Term Forecasts”, International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 477-491.
  • MARJANOVIC, Gordana; MIHAJLOVİC, Vladimir (2014), “Analysis of Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates with Structural Breaks: the Case of Selected European Countries”, Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, 25(4); 378-386.
  • MIKHAIL, Ossama (2002), Hysteresis and Persistence in Unemployment: a Definition, İnternet Adresi: http://www.sdamerican.com/osmikhail/research/hysteresis-persistence/hysteresis-persistence-ue.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2017.
  • MIKHAIL, Ossama; EBERWEIN, Curtis J. and HANDA, Jagdish (2003), “Testing and Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment”, Econometrics, 0311004, EconWPA.
  • MLADENOVIĆ, Z. (2016), Econometric Testing of Unemployment Hysteresis in Selected CEE Countries: Lessons for the Serbian Economy. Ekonomika Preduzeća, 64(7-8), 403-413.
  • NEELY, Christopher J. and David E. RAPACH (2008), “Real Interest Rate Persistence: Evidence and Implications”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 90(6), 609-41.
  • PHILLIPS, A. William (1958), “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–19571”, Economica, 25(100); 283–299.
  • SAMUELSON, Paul; SOLOW, Robert (1960), “The Problem of Achieving and Maintaining a Stable Price Level: Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, American Economic Review, 50; 177-94.
  • SILVA, Cleomar Gomes; GOMES, Fabio Augusto Reis (2009), “Measuring Unemployment Persistence of Different Labor Force Groups in the Greater São Paulo Metropolitan Area”, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39(4); 763-784.
  • TOBIN, James (1980), “Stabilization Policy Ten Years After”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, Tenth Anniversary Issue, 19-89.

Year 2019, Volume: 20 Issue: 1, 214 - 225, 31.05.2019

İpek Yurttagüler , Sinem Kutlu

Abstract

References

  • AKDOĞAN, Kurmaş (2016), “Unemployment Hysteresis and Structural Change in Europe”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper, No: 16/18.
  • ASHLEY, Richard A., Douglas M. PATTERSON (2010). Apparent Long Memory in Time Series as an Artifact of a Time-Varying Mean: Considering Alternatives to the Fractionally Integrated Model. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14 (Supplement 1), 59–87.
  • BAILLIE, Richard T. (1996), “Long Memory Processes and Fractional Integration in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 73, 5-59.
  • BANERJEE, Anindya and Giovanni URGA (2005), “Modelling Structural Breaks, Long Memory and Stock Market Volatility: An Overview”, Journal of Econometrics, 129, 1-34.
  • BARKOULAS, John T., Christopher F. BAUM, (1997).”Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates”. Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, 4, 189-201.
  • BARKOULAS, John T., Christopher F. BAUM (1998), “Fractional Dynamics in Japanese Financial Time Series”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 6, 115-124.
  • BHARDWAJ, Geetesh and Norman R. SWANSON (2006), “An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series”, Journal of Econometrics, 131, 539-578.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier J. (2003), Macroeconomics, NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • BLANCHARD, Olivier J.; SUMMERS, Lawrence H. (1986), “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.1, (Ed.) Stanley Fischer, MIT Press; 15-90.
  • CAPORALE, Guglielmo Maria; GIL-ALANA, Luis A. and LOVCHA, Yuliya (2013), “Testing Unemployment Theories: A Multivariate Long Memory Approach”, Brunel University Economics and Finance Working Paper Series, No.13-29.
  • CRATO, Nuno; ROTHMAN, Philip (1996), “Measuring Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates with Long Memory Models”, East Carolina University Department of Economics Working Papers.
  • CUESTAS, Juan Carlos; GIL-ALANA, Luis A. (2011), “Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies”, Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series, No. 2011005.
  • ESPINOSA-VEGA, Marco; RUSSELL, Steven (1997), “History and Theory of the NAIRU: A Critical Review”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 82(2); 4-25.
  • FAŸ, Gilles, Eric MOULİNES, François ROUEFF, Murad S. TAQQU (2009). “Estimators of Long-Memory: Fourier Versus Wavelets”. Journal of Econometrics, 151, 159–177.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton (1968), “The role of monetary policy”, American Economic Review. 68 (1); 1–17.
  • FUNKE, Michael (1998), “The Long Memory Property of the US Unemployment Rate”, Centre for Economic Forecasting, London Business School Discussion Paper, No. 19-98.
  • GEWEKE, John and Susan PORTER-HUDAK (1983), “The Estimation and Application of Long Memory Time Series Models”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4(4), 221-238.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A. (2001), “The persistence of unemployment in the USA and Europe in terms of fractionally ARIMA models”, Applied Economics, 33:10; 1263-1269.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A. (2002), “Modelling the Persistence of Unemployment in Canada”, International Review of Applied Economics, 16:4; 465-477.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A.; HENRY, S. G. Brian (2003), “Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65(2); 221-239.
  • GIL-ALANA, Luis A.; OZDEMIR, Zeynel Abidin and TANSEL, Aysit (2017), “Long memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates”, Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper, 2017/5.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. (1980), “Long Memory Relationships and the Aggregation of Dynamic Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 14(2), 227-38.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. and Roselyne JOYEUX (1980), “An Introduction to Long-Memory Time Series Models and Fractional Differencing”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1, 15-39.
  • GRANGER, Clive W.J. and Zhuanxin DING (1996), “Varieties of Long Memory Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 73, 61-77.
  • HOSKING, Jonathan R.M. (1981), “Fractional Differencing”, Biometrika, 68(1), 165-176.
  • KURITA, Takamitsu (2010), “A Forecasting Model for Japan’s Unemployment Rate”, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 3 (5); 127-134.
  • LAYARD, Richard (1992), “Non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment”, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, 3 Volume Set (Eds.) John Eatwell, Murray Milgate, Peter Newman, London: The Macmillan Press; 39-40.
  • LEÓN-LEDESMA, Miguel; McADAM, Peter (2003), “Unemployment, hysteresis and transition”, European Central Bank, Working Paper 234.
  • LIPSEY, Richard G. (1960), “The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the UK, 1862-1957: A further analysis”, Economica, 27(105); 1-31.
  • MAN, Kasing S. (2003), “Long Memory Time Series and Short Term Forecasts”, International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 477-491.
  • MARJANOVIC, Gordana; MIHAJLOVİC, Vladimir (2014), “Analysis of Hysteresis in Unemployment Rates with Structural Breaks: the Case of Selected European Countries”, Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics, 25(4); 378-386.
  • MIKHAIL, Ossama (2002), Hysteresis and Persistence in Unemployment: a Definition, İnternet Adresi: http://www.sdamerican.com/osmikhail/research/hysteresis-persistence/hysteresis-persistence-ue.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2017.
  • MIKHAIL, Ossama; EBERWEIN, Curtis J. and HANDA, Jagdish (2003), “Testing and Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment”, Econometrics, 0311004, EconWPA.
  • MLADENOVIĆ, Z. (2016), Econometric Testing of Unemployment Hysteresis in Selected CEE Countries: Lessons for the Serbian Economy. Ekonomika Preduzeća, 64(7-8), 403-413.
  • NEELY, Christopher J. and David E. RAPACH (2008), “Real Interest Rate Persistence: Evidence and Implications”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 90(6), 609-41.
  • PHILLIPS, A. William (1958), “The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–19571”, Economica, 25(100); 283–299.
  • SAMUELSON, Paul; SOLOW, Robert (1960), “The Problem of Achieving and Maintaining a Stable Price Level: Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, American Economic Review, 50; 177-94.
  • SILVA, Cleomar Gomes; GOMES, Fabio Augusto Reis (2009), “Measuring Unemployment Persistence of Different Labor Force Groups in the Greater São Paulo Metropolitan Area”, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 39(4); 763-784.
  • TOBIN, James (1980), “Stabilization Policy Ten Years After”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, Tenth Anniversary Issue, 19-89.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

İpek Yurttagüler 0000-0003-3368-3787

Sinem Kutlu 0000-0001-9392-2458

Publication Date May 31, 2019
Submission Date January 29, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019Volume: 20 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Yurttagüler, İ., & Kutlu, S. (2019). İŞSİZLİKTE UZUN HAFIZA ETKİSİ VE HİSTERİSİZ HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(1), 214-225. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.519049
 Download Cover Image

Cumhuriyet University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY NC).