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Türkiye'de Kamu Kesimi Bütçe Açıkları ve Enflasyon İlişkisinin ARDL Sınır Testi Yöntemi ile İncelenmesi

Year 2021, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 231 - 252, 07.05.2021

Musa Atgür

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.623247
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Maliye
politikası, para politikası ile birlikte makroekonomik istikrarın sağlanması ve
sürdürülmesi açısından ekonomide önemli bir role sahip bulunmaktadır.
Dolayısıyla, bu politika bileşenlerinin etkin bir biçimde kullanılabilmesi önem
arzetmektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de kamu kesimi bütçe açıklarının enflasyon
üzerindeki etkilerini uzun dönem için incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Bu kapsamda, 2006-2019
dönemi için üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır.
ARDL sınır testi sonuçları, Türkiye’de kamu kesimi bütçe açıklarının enflasyon
üzerinde uzun dönemde etkili olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu sonuç, teorik beklentiler
ile uyumlu olup, Türkiye’de fiyat istikrarının sağlanmasında ve sürdürülmesinde
maliye politikası araçlarının etkili olduğunu ve bu politika araçlarının etkin
bir biçimde kullanılması gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Türkiye Kamu Kesimi Bütçe Açıkları kamu

References

  • ABDİOĞLU, Zehra ve Harum TERZİ (2009), "Enflasyon ve Bütçe Açıkları İlişkisi: Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkisi", Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(23); 195-211.
  • AGHA, Asif Idrees, ve Muhammad Saleem KHAN (2006), "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation in Pakistan", SBP Research Bulletin, 2(2); 343-362.
  • AKÇAY, O. Cevdet; C. Emre ALPER ve Suleyman ÖZMUCUR (2001), "Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970-2000)", Bogazici University Research Papers, SBE, 01-12.
  • ANAYOCHUKWU, Ozurumba Benedict (2012), "Fiscal Deficits And Inflation In Nigeria: The Causality Approach", International Journal Of Scientific & Technology Research, 8(1); 6-12.
  • ASLAM, A. L. Mohamed ve S. M. Ahamed LEBBE (2016), "Impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Sri Lanka: an econometric time series analysis", International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, 70; 8-13. https://doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.70.8
  • BAYRAK, Metin ve Osman Cenk KANCA (2013), "Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimi Açıklarının Nedenleri ve Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi Üzerindeki Etkileri", İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 48 (Mart 2013); 91-111.
  • BLAKE, Tarick (2014), "Exploring the Link between Fiscal Policy and Inflation in Jamaica", Working Paper Bank of Jamaica.BULAWAYO, Maio; Francis CHIBWE ve Venkatesh SESHAMANI (2018), "The Impact of Budget Deficits on Inflation in Zambia", Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2(6); 13-23.CARDOSO, Eliana (1998), "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect", Staff Papers International Monetary Fund, 4(45); 619-646.
  • CATÃO, Luis A. V. Ve Marco E. TERRONES (2005), "Fiscal deficits and inflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2005); 529–554.
  • FAKHER, Hossein-Ali (2016), "The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies)", Iran. Econ. Rev., 4(20); 551-579.
  • İPEK, Evren ve Sevda AKAR (2017), "Bütçe Açığı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz", Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(38); 167-189.
  • KAUR, Gurleen (2018), "The Relationship Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in India: A Cointegration Analysis", Journal of Business Thought, 8; 24-41.
  • KHUNDRAKPAM, Jeevan Kumar ve Sitikantha PATTANAIK (2010), "Fiscal Stimulus and Potential Inflationary Risks: An Empirical Assessment of Fiscal Deficit and Inflation Relationship in India", Journal of Economic Integration, 25(4); 703-724.
  • LOZANO, Luis Ignacio (2008), "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case", Borradores de Economia 537, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • MADNI, Ghulam Rasool (2014), "Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan", The Romanian Economic Journal, 53; 41-60.
  • MANUEL, Victoria; Joel Hinaunye EITA; Erwin NAIMHWAKA ve Florette NAKUSERA (2019), "The Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Namibia", BON Working Paper WP3-2019.
  • NGUYEN, Van Bon (2015), "Effects of fiscal deficit and money M2 supply on inflation: Evidence from selected economies of Asia", Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(2015); 49–53.
  • ODIM, Orji Uka; Onyeze Clementina NGOZI ve Edeh LAWRENCE (2014), "Inflation Dynamics and Fiscal Deficit in Nigeria: Examination of Causal Relationship", IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(5); 79-86.
  • OLASUNKANMI, Oseni Isiaq ve Sanni Hauwa YETUNDE (2016), "Does Fiscal Deficit Granger Cause Impulsiveness in Inflation Rate in Nigeria?", Acta Universitatis Danubius, 4(12); 208-216.
  • PATINKIN, Don (1993), "Israel’s Stabilization Program of 1985, or Some Simple Truths of Monetary Theory", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(2); 103-128.
  • PEKARSKI, Sergei (2011), "Budget Deficits and Inflation Feedback", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 22(2011); 1-11.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem ve Yongcheol SHIN, Y. (1999), "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis", Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Strom, S. (ed.) Cambridge University Press.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. Smith (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Special Issue, Vol.16; 289-326.
  • PRASAD, A. ve Jeevan Kumar KHUNDRAKPAM (2003), "Government Deficit and Inflation in India", MPRA Paper 51106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
  • SARGENT, Thomas J. ve Neil WALLACE (1981), "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic", FRBM Quarterly Review, 3(5).
  • TIWARI, Aviral Kumar ve A. P. TIWARI (2011), "Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: An empirical analysis for India", The Romanian Economic Journal, 14 (42); 131-158.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS), https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/in

Year 2021, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 231 - 252, 07.05.2021

Musa Atgür

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.623247
Cited By: 1

Abstract

References

  • ABDİOĞLU, Zehra ve Harum TERZİ (2009), "Enflasyon ve Bütçe Açıkları İlişkisi: Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkisi", Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(23); 195-211.
  • AGHA, Asif Idrees, ve Muhammad Saleem KHAN (2006), "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation in Pakistan", SBP Research Bulletin, 2(2); 343-362.
  • AKÇAY, O. Cevdet; C. Emre ALPER ve Suleyman ÖZMUCUR (2001), "Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey (1970-2000)", Bogazici University Research Papers, SBE, 01-12.
  • ANAYOCHUKWU, Ozurumba Benedict (2012), "Fiscal Deficits And Inflation In Nigeria: The Causality Approach", International Journal Of Scientific & Technology Research, 8(1); 6-12.
  • ASLAM, A. L. Mohamed ve S. M. Ahamed LEBBE (2016), "Impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Sri Lanka: an econometric time series analysis", International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, 70; 8-13. https://doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.70.8
  • BAYRAK, Metin ve Osman Cenk KANCA (2013), "Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimi Açıklarının Nedenleri ve Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi Üzerindeki Etkileri", İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 48 (Mart 2013); 91-111.
  • BLAKE, Tarick (2014), "Exploring the Link between Fiscal Policy and Inflation in Jamaica", Working Paper Bank of Jamaica.BULAWAYO, Maio; Francis CHIBWE ve Venkatesh SESHAMANI (2018), "The Impact of Budget Deficits on Inflation in Zambia", Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2(6); 13-23.CARDOSO, Eliana (1998), "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect", Staff Papers International Monetary Fund, 4(45); 619-646.
  • CATÃO, Luis A. V. Ve Marco E. TERRONES (2005), "Fiscal deficits and inflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2005); 529–554.
  • FAKHER, Hossein-Ali (2016), "The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies)", Iran. Econ. Rev., 4(20); 551-579.
  • İPEK, Evren ve Sevda AKAR (2017), "Bütçe Açığı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz", Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2(38); 167-189.
  • KAUR, Gurleen (2018), "The Relationship Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in India: A Cointegration Analysis", Journal of Business Thought, 8; 24-41.
  • KHUNDRAKPAM, Jeevan Kumar ve Sitikantha PATTANAIK (2010), "Fiscal Stimulus and Potential Inflationary Risks: An Empirical Assessment of Fiscal Deficit and Inflation Relationship in India", Journal of Economic Integration, 25(4); 703-724.
  • LOZANO, Luis Ignacio (2008), "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case", Borradores de Economia 537, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • MADNI, Ghulam Rasool (2014), "Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan", The Romanian Economic Journal, 53; 41-60.
  • MANUEL, Victoria; Joel Hinaunye EITA; Erwin NAIMHWAKA ve Florette NAKUSERA (2019), "The Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Namibia", BON Working Paper WP3-2019.
  • NGUYEN, Van Bon (2015), "Effects of fiscal deficit and money M2 supply on inflation: Evidence from selected economies of Asia", Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(2015); 49–53.
  • ODIM, Orji Uka; Onyeze Clementina NGOZI ve Edeh LAWRENCE (2014), "Inflation Dynamics and Fiscal Deficit in Nigeria: Examination of Causal Relationship", IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(5); 79-86.
  • OLASUNKANMI, Oseni Isiaq ve Sanni Hauwa YETUNDE (2016), "Does Fiscal Deficit Granger Cause Impulsiveness in Inflation Rate in Nigeria?", Acta Universitatis Danubius, 4(12); 208-216.
  • PATINKIN, Don (1993), "Israel’s Stabilization Program of 1985, or Some Simple Truths of Monetary Theory", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(2); 103-128.
  • PEKARSKI, Sergei (2011), "Budget Deficits and Inflation Feedback", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 22(2011); 1-11.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem ve Yongcheol SHIN, Y. (1999), "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis", Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Strom, S. (ed.) Cambridge University Press.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN ve Richard J. Smith (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Special Issue, Vol.16; 289-326.
  • PRASAD, A. ve Jeevan Kumar KHUNDRAKPAM (2003), "Government Deficit and Inflation in India", MPRA Paper 51106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
  • SARGENT, Thomas J. ve Neil WALLACE (1981), "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic", FRBM Quarterly Review, 3(5).
  • TIWARI, Aviral Kumar ve A. P. TIWARI (2011), "Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: An empirical analysis for India", The Romanian Economic Journal, 14 (42); 131-158.
  • Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS), https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/in
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Musa Atgür 0000-0003-0429-4619

Publication Date May 7, 2021
Submission Date September 22, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2021Volume: 22 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Atgür, M. (2021). Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimi Bütçe Açıkları ve Enflasyon İlişkisinin ARDL Sınır Testi Yöntemi ile İncelenmesi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 231-252. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.623247

Cited By

Türkiye'de Bütçe Dengesi ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
The Journal of International Scientific Researches
https://doi.org/10.23834/isrjournal.1317738
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