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Çin ve ABD’de Ticaret Politika Belirsizliği ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Bootstrap Rolling Window Yaklaşımı

Year 2021, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 103 - 122, 08.11.2021
https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.913823

Abstract

Son yıllarda Dünya Ticaretinde lider konumda olan Çin ve ABD gibi iki gelişmiş ülkenin artan ticaret anlaşmazlıkları, yeni ticaret düzenlemeleri, karşılıklı siyasi söylemlerin sıklığı, yeni ticaret yollarının oluşturulma çabası ve küresel ticaret entegrasyonu olasılığının azalması akademik çalışmaları ticaret politikaları belirsizliğinin incelenmesine yönlendirmiştir. Bu amaçla çalışmada Çin ve ABD’ye ait ticaret politika belirsizliği endeksi ve tüketici fiyat endeksi verileri arasındaki olası nedensellik ilişkisi Balcılar vd. (2010) tarafından geliştirilen Bootstrap Rolling Window Nedensellik testi ile belirlenmek istenilmiştir. Amprik incelemeler sonucu Çin ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde uzun vadede ticaret politika belirsizliği ve tüketici fiyat endeksi arasında bir ilişki olduğu tespit edildi. Çin’de ticaret politika belirsizliğinden tüketici fiyat endeksine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya çıkarken; ABD’de ticaret politikası belirsizliği ve enflasyon arasında belirli tarihlerde çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Nedensellik ilişkisinin yönü ve tarihlerinin belirlendiği çalışmanın bulguları dikkate alındığında çalışmanın ilgili literatüre katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. Bu noktada gelecekteki çalışmaların temel amacı, ticaret politika belirsizliği ile tüketici fiyat endeksi arasındaki ilişkiyi farklı ülkeler, farklı ekonometrik yöntemler ve örneklerle net bir şekilde ortaya çıkarmak olmalıdır.

References

  • Aisen, A.; Veiga, F. J. (2011), "How Does Political Instability Effect Economic Growth", IMF Working Paper, No:12.
  • Akalın, G.; Dilek, S. (2007), "Belirsizlik Altında Tüketicilerin Kararları", Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, C.3 S.6, 33-48.
  • Akkaya, O.; M. B. (2019), "US Economic Policy Uncertainty And Loan Growth: Evidence From Turkey", Üçüncü sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, Third Sector Social Economic Review, C.54 S.3, 1049-1063.
  • Akkuş, Ö. (2017), "Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Politik İstikrarsızlığın Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi", Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C.17 N.3: 27-42.
  • Alada, D. (2019), "İktisatta Belirsizlik". https://www.ekodialog.com/Makaleler/iktisatta-belirsizlik-makale.html, (Access Date: 28.11.2019).
  • Alkan, B. (2018), "Ekonomide Belirsizlik ve Türkiye İçin Bir Belirsizlik Endeksi Önerisi", Doktora Tezi, Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
  • Balcilar, M.; Ozdemir, Z. A.; Arslanturk, Y. (2010), "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window", Energy Economics, Vol. 32 No.6: 1398-1410.
  • Baker, S. Bloom, N.; Davis, S. (2012), "Policy Uncertainty: A New Indicator. CentrePiece" Paper No.CEPCP362, Vol. 16 No.3: 21-23.
  • Baker, S. Bloom, N.; Davis, S. (2019), "The Extraordinary Rise İn Trade Policy Uncertainty", voxeu.org/article/extraordinary-rise-trade-policy-uncertainty, (Access Date: 8.12.2019).
  • Baker, S. R.,; Bloom, N.; Davis, S. (2015). "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty", NBER Working Paper Series, w21633.
  • Balta, N., Fernandez, V. I. & Ruscher, E. (2013), "Assessing the Impact of Uncertainty On Consumption and Investment", Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, Vol. 12 No.2: 7-16.
  • Behravesh, N.; Johnson, L. S. (2019), "The Global Economy: Rising Trade Policy Uncertainty ıs Weighing Heavily On Capital Spending". https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/the-global-economy-rising-trade-policy-uncertainty.html, (Access Date:15. 12.2019).
  • Borsa Gündem (2019), "Küresel Borsalar Ticaret", https://www.borsagundem. com/haber/kuresel-piyasalar-ticaret-muzakerelerine-odaklandi/1442389, (Acces Date: 06.12.2019).
  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A.; Raffo, A. (2019), "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty", International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), 1256.
  • Cebreros, A., Chiquiar, D., Heffner, A.,; Salcedo, A.( 2018), "Trade Policy Uncertainty and its Effect on Foreign Direct Investment and Export Participation: Evidence from Mexico" , Mimeo, Banco de M´exico.
  • Çoşar, E. E.; Şahinöz, S. (2018). "Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy". Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper No: 18/06.
  • Davis, S. J. (2019). "Rising Policy Uncertainty". NBER Working Paper Nr. 26243.
  • Drazen, A. (2002). "Political Economy in Macroeconomics". Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Feng, L. Li, Z.; Sewenson, L. D. (2017), "Trade Polıcy Uncertaınty And Exports: Evıdence From Chına’s Wto Accessıon", Journal of International Economics, Vol. 106: 20-36.
  • Groppo, V.; Piermartini, R. (2014), "Trade Policy Uncertainty and The WTO". DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1437.
  • Handley, K. (2011), "Exporting Under Trade Policy Uncertaınty: Theory and Evidence", Theory of Philosophy, University of Maryland.
  • Handley, K. (2014), "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and Evidence",. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 94 No. 1: 50-66.
  • Handley, K.; Limao, N. (2012), "Trade and Investment Under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence". NBER Working Paper No. 17790.
  • Handley, K.; Limao, N. (2017), "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, And Welfare: Theory And Evidence For China And The United States", American Economic Review, Vol. 107 No.9: 2731-2783.
  • Hermes, N.; Lensink, R. (2001), "Capital Flight and The Uncertainty of Government Policies". Economics Letters, Vol. 71 No. 3: 337-381.
  • Imbruno, M. (2019), "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China", Journay of Comparative Economics, Vol.47 No.4: 806-826.
  • Korkmaz, Ö.; Güngör, S. (2018), "Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliğinin Borsa İstanbul’da İşlem Gören Seçilmiş Endeks Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi", Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C. 6 S.18: 211-219.
  • Koutris, A., Heracleous, M.S. & Spanos, A., (2008). Testing for Nonstationarity Using Maximum Entropy Resampling: A Misspecification Testing Perspective. Econometric Reviews, 27, 363–384.
  • Osnago, A., Piermartini, R.; Rocha, N. (2015), "Trade Policy Uncertainty As Barrier To Trade", WTO Working Paper.
  • Shukur, G., & Mantalos, P. (2000). A Simple Investigation of the Granger-Causality Test in Integrated-Cointegrated Var Systems. Journal of Applied Statistics, 27, 1021–1031.
  • Şahin. A, (2010), "Belirsizlik ve Ekonomi", https://www.dunya.com/gundem/belirsizlik-ve-ekonomi-haberi-121845, (Access Date:05.12.219).
  • Şimşek, T. (2015), "Politik İstikrarsızlık Çerçevesinde Politika ve İktisat Etkileşimi", Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives, Vol. 3 No.2: 39-54.
  • Torres, C. (2019). Fed Researchers Find Trade Policy Uncertainty a Drag on Growth. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/fed-researchers-find-trade-policy -uncertainty-a-drag-on-growth, Access Date: 28.12.2019.
  • Tufts, B. M., Tufts, E. F., & Kellog, S., M. (2019). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3340700, (Access Date: 15.12.2019).
  • Ulusoy, A. (2019). Yükselen Ticari Belirsizlik Dünya Refahını Tehdit Ediyor. https://www.yenisafak.com/yazarlar/ahmetulusoy/yukselen-ticari-belirsizlik-dunya-refahini-tehdit-ediyor-2052696, (Access Date:25.12.2019).
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö; Aydın, İ. H. (2017), "Ekonomik ve Politik Belirsizliğin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: G-7+BRC Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi (1997-2015) ". Ege Bakış, Vol. 17 No. 3: 419-429.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö; Kaya V. (2017), "Politika İstikrarın/İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Dünyanın En Büyük İlk Yirmi Ekonomisi Üzerinde Bir Uygulama (1996-2015)", Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Vol. 13 No. 2: 277-298.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Nexus in China and Usa: Bootsrapt Rolling Window Approach

Year 2021, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 103 - 122, 08.11.2021
https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.913823

Abstract

Two developed countries, namely China and the USA, which have been leaders in world trade in recent years, are making new trade regulations and increasing trade disputes, the intensity of political discourses, the effort to create new trade routes and thus decreasing the possibility of global trade integration, as a result, accumulating academic studies have focused on the study of trade policy uncertainty. For this purpose, in the study, the probable causality relationship between the trade policy uncertainty index and consumer price index data of China and the USA was tried to be determined by the Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality test developed by Balcılar et al. (2010). As a result of empirical studies, it was determined that there is a relationship between CPI and TPU variables in the long term in China and the United States. A one-way causal relationship has emerged from trade policy uncertainty in China to the Consumer Price Index; it has been concluded that there is a two-way causal relationship between trade policy uncertainty and inflation in the United States at certain dates. Considering the findings of the study in which the direction and dates of the causality relationship are determined, it is thought that the study will contribute to the relevant literature. At this point, the main purpose of future studies should be to clearly reveal the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and consumer price index with different econometric methods and examples from different countries.

References

  • Aisen, A.; Veiga, F. J. (2011), "How Does Political Instability Effect Economic Growth", IMF Working Paper, No:12.
  • Akalın, G.; Dilek, S. (2007), "Belirsizlik Altında Tüketicilerin Kararları", Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, C.3 S.6, 33-48.
  • Akkaya, O.; M. B. (2019), "US Economic Policy Uncertainty And Loan Growth: Evidence From Turkey", Üçüncü sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, Third Sector Social Economic Review, C.54 S.3, 1049-1063.
  • Akkuş, Ö. (2017), "Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Politik İstikrarsızlığın Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi", Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C.17 N.3: 27-42.
  • Alada, D. (2019), "İktisatta Belirsizlik". https://www.ekodialog.com/Makaleler/iktisatta-belirsizlik-makale.html, (Access Date: 28.11.2019).
  • Alkan, B. (2018), "Ekonomide Belirsizlik ve Türkiye İçin Bir Belirsizlik Endeksi Önerisi", Doktora Tezi, Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
  • Balcilar, M.; Ozdemir, Z. A.; Arslanturk, Y. (2010), "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window", Energy Economics, Vol. 32 No.6: 1398-1410.
  • Baker, S. Bloom, N.; Davis, S. (2012), "Policy Uncertainty: A New Indicator. CentrePiece" Paper No.CEPCP362, Vol. 16 No.3: 21-23.
  • Baker, S. Bloom, N.; Davis, S. (2019), "The Extraordinary Rise İn Trade Policy Uncertainty", voxeu.org/article/extraordinary-rise-trade-policy-uncertainty, (Access Date: 8.12.2019).
  • Baker, S. R.,; Bloom, N.; Davis, S. (2015). "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty", NBER Working Paper Series, w21633.
  • Balta, N., Fernandez, V. I. & Ruscher, E. (2013), "Assessing the Impact of Uncertainty On Consumption and Investment", Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, Vol. 12 No.2: 7-16.
  • Behravesh, N.; Johnson, L. S. (2019), "The Global Economy: Rising Trade Policy Uncertainty ıs Weighing Heavily On Capital Spending". https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/the-global-economy-rising-trade-policy-uncertainty.html, (Access Date:15. 12.2019).
  • Borsa Gündem (2019), "Küresel Borsalar Ticaret", https://www.borsagundem. com/haber/kuresel-piyasalar-ticaret-muzakerelerine-odaklandi/1442389, (Acces Date: 06.12.2019).
  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A.; Raffo, A. (2019), "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty", International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), 1256.
  • Cebreros, A., Chiquiar, D., Heffner, A.,; Salcedo, A.( 2018), "Trade Policy Uncertainty and its Effect on Foreign Direct Investment and Export Participation: Evidence from Mexico" , Mimeo, Banco de M´exico.
  • Çoşar, E. E.; Şahinöz, S. (2018). "Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy". Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Working Paper No: 18/06.
  • Davis, S. J. (2019). "Rising Policy Uncertainty". NBER Working Paper Nr. 26243.
  • Drazen, A. (2002). "Political Economy in Macroeconomics". Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Feng, L. Li, Z.; Sewenson, L. D. (2017), "Trade Polıcy Uncertaınty And Exports: Evıdence From Chına’s Wto Accessıon", Journal of International Economics, Vol. 106: 20-36.
  • Groppo, V.; Piermartini, R. (2014), "Trade Policy Uncertainty and The WTO". DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1437.
  • Handley, K. (2011), "Exporting Under Trade Policy Uncertaınty: Theory and Evidence", Theory of Philosophy, University of Maryland.
  • Handley, K. (2014), "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and Evidence",. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 94 No. 1: 50-66.
  • Handley, K.; Limao, N. (2012), "Trade and Investment Under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence". NBER Working Paper No. 17790.
  • Handley, K.; Limao, N. (2017), "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, And Welfare: Theory And Evidence For China And The United States", American Economic Review, Vol. 107 No.9: 2731-2783.
  • Hermes, N.; Lensink, R. (2001), "Capital Flight and The Uncertainty of Government Policies". Economics Letters, Vol. 71 No. 3: 337-381.
  • Imbruno, M. (2019), "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China", Journay of Comparative Economics, Vol.47 No.4: 806-826.
  • Korkmaz, Ö.; Güngör, S. (2018), "Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliğinin Borsa İstanbul’da İşlem Gören Seçilmiş Endeks Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi", Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C. 6 S.18: 211-219.
  • Koutris, A., Heracleous, M.S. & Spanos, A., (2008). Testing for Nonstationarity Using Maximum Entropy Resampling: A Misspecification Testing Perspective. Econometric Reviews, 27, 363–384.
  • Osnago, A., Piermartini, R.; Rocha, N. (2015), "Trade Policy Uncertainty As Barrier To Trade", WTO Working Paper.
  • Shukur, G., & Mantalos, P. (2000). A Simple Investigation of the Granger-Causality Test in Integrated-Cointegrated Var Systems. Journal of Applied Statistics, 27, 1021–1031.
  • Şahin. A, (2010), "Belirsizlik ve Ekonomi", https://www.dunya.com/gundem/belirsizlik-ve-ekonomi-haberi-121845, (Access Date:05.12.219).
  • Şimşek, T. (2015), "Politik İstikrarsızlık Çerçevesinde Politika ve İktisat Etkileşimi", Journal of International Management, Educational and Economics Perspectives, Vol. 3 No.2: 39-54.
  • Torres, C. (2019). Fed Researchers Find Trade Policy Uncertainty a Drag on Growth. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/fed-researchers-find-trade-policy -uncertainty-a-drag-on-growth, Access Date: 28.12.2019.
  • Tufts, B. M., Tufts, E. F., & Kellog, S., M. (2019). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3340700, (Access Date: 15.12.2019).
  • Ulusoy, A. (2019). Yükselen Ticari Belirsizlik Dünya Refahını Tehdit Ediyor. https://www.yenisafak.com/yazarlar/ahmetulusoy/yukselen-ticari-belirsizlik-dunya-refahini-tehdit-ediyor-2052696, (Access Date:25.12.2019).
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö; Aydın, İ. H. (2017), "Ekonomik ve Politik Belirsizliğin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: G-7+BRC Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi (1997-2015) ". Ege Bakış, Vol. 17 No. 3: 419-429.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö; Kaya V. (2017), "Politika İstikrarın/İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Dünyanın En Büyük İlk Yirmi Ekonomisi Üzerinde Bir Uygulama (1996-2015)", Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Vol. 13 No. 2: 277-298.
There are 37 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Ayşenur Şakalak 0000-0002-8420-4718

Türker Şimşek 0000-0001-7581-7590

Publication Date November 8, 2021
Submission Date April 12, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021Volume: 22 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Şakalak, A., & Şimşek, T. (2021). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Nexus in China and Usa: Bootsrapt Rolling Window Approach. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 103-122. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.913823

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