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Hizmet İhracatı ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Bağlantıda Dijital Teknolojilerin Moderatör Etkisi: Yüksek Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2024, Volume: 25 Issue: 1, 127 - 141, 31.01.2024

Büşra Özer Aksoy , Fatma Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1332368

Abstract

Bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerindeki gelişmeler dijitalleşme sürecine ivme kazandırarak dijital teknolojilerin kullanımını artırmıştır. Söz konusu teknolojilerin kullanımındaki artış ise küresel hizmet ticaretinin hızlanmasına ve ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin hizmetler ticareti açısından yeniden tartışılmasına yol açmıştır. Hipoteze göre, hizmet ihracatının ekonomik büyüme sürecindeki muhtemel etkilerinin olumlu yönde olması yani ekonomik büyümeye pozitif katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir. Dijital teknolojilerin hizmet ihracatı-ekonomik büyüme bağlantısındaki rolü dikkate alındığında ise bu teknolojilerin söz konusu pozitif etkiyi güçlendirmesi beklenmektedir. Bu kapsamda son yıllarda hem araştırmacıların hem de politika yapıcıların ilgisi hizmet ihracatı, ekonomik büyüme ve dijitalleşme arasındaki bağlantılara ve dijital teknolojilerin rolüne odaklanmıştır. Dolayısıyla çalışmanın amacı, hizmet ihracatı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkide dijital teknolojilerin moderatör etkisinin araştırılmasına katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu doğrultuda, çalışmada 40 yüksek gelirli ülkenin 2008-2020 dönemine ait ilgili verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiş ve panel eşbütünleşme testleri (Pedroni ve Kao) ile panel FMOLS ve panel DOLS katsayı tahmincilerinden faydalanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular; analize dahil edilen değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmekte olup, hizmet ihracatının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Başka bir ifadeyle, hizmet ihracatına dayalı büyüme hipotezini doğrulayıcı ampirik kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Bununla birlikte, dijital teknolojilerin hizmet ihracatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında moderatör etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yani moderatör değişkenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi pozitiftir.

Keywords

hizmet ihracatı ekonomik büyüme dijitalleşme

References

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  • Hoekman, B., & Mattoo, A. (2008). Services trade and growth. Opening markets for trade in services: Countries and sectors in bilateral and WTO negotiations, 21-58.
  • Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
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  • Karam, F., & Zaki, C. (2015). Trade volume and economic growth in the MENA region: Goods or services?. Economic Modelling, 45, 22-37.
  • Kaur, S. (2011). Determinants of export services of USA with its Asian partners: A panel data analysis. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 4(8), 101-117.
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  • Ergün, S., & Polat, M. A. (2015). OECD ülkelerinde CO2 emisyonu, elektrik tüketimi ve büyüme ilişkisi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (45), 115-141.
  • Gujarati, D.N. ve Porter, D. C. (2012). Basic Ecnometrics. New York: Mc Graw-Hill.
  • Harb, N. (2004). Money demand function: a heterogeneous panel application. Applied Economics Letters, 11(9), 551-555.
  • Kiratli, F. (2019). Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de Hizmet Ticaretinin Gelişimi. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi (İKTİSAD), 4(9), 146-158.
  • Koca, A. & Yıldırım, N. (2021). Türkiye ekonomisinde hizmet ihracatının temel belirleyicileri: zaman serisi analizi. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 39(3), 441-458.
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Moderator Effect of Digital Technologies on the Linkage between Service Export and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on High-Income Countries

Year 2024, Volume: 25 Issue: 1, 127 - 141, 31.01.2024

Büşra Özer Aksoy , Fatma Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1332368

Abstract

Developments in information and communication technologies have accelerated the digitalization process by increasing the use of digital technologies. The increase in the use of these technologies has led to the acceleration of global services trade and the re-discussion of the export-led growth hypothesis in terms of services trade. According to the hypothesis, it is expected that the possible effects of service exports on the economic growth process will be positive, that is, it will contribute positively to economic growth. Considering the role of digital technologies in the service export-economic growth nexus, these technologies are expected to strengthen this positive effect. In this context, the interest of both researchers and policy makers in recent years has focused on the linkages between service exports, economic growth and digitalization, and the role of digital technologies. Therefore, the aim of the study is to contribute to the investigation of the moderator effect of digital technologies on the relationship between service exports and economic growth. From this point, panel data analysis was employed by using the relevant data of 40 high-income countries for the period 2008-2020 and panel cointegration tests (Pedroni and Kao) and panel FMOLS and panel DOLS coefficient estimators were used. The empirical findings obtained indicate the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables included in the analysis and confirm the positive effect of service exports on economic growth. In other words, empirical evidence has been obtained confirming the growth hypothesis based on service exports. Additionally, it was concluded that digital technologies have a moderator effect between service exports and economic growth. In other words, the effect of the moderator variable on economic growth is positive.

Keywords

services export economic growth digitalization

References

  • Abendin, S., & Duan, P. (2021). International trade and economic growth in Africa: The role of the digital economy. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1911767. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1911767.
  • Adeleye, N., & Eboagu, C. (2019). Evaluation of ICT development and economic growth in Africa. NETNOMICS: Economic research and electronic networking, 20, 31-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11066-019-09131-6.
  • Ahmad, S. A., Kaliappan, S. R., & Ismail, N. W. (2017). Determinants of service export in selected developing Asian countries. International Journal of Business and Society, 18(1),113-132.
  • Aigheyisi, O. (2020). Does the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis hold for services exports in Nigeria?. West African Financial and Economic Review, 20(12), 25-60.
  • Alege, P. O., & Ogundipe, A. (2013). The role of services trade in economic development. MPRA Paper. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51695/.
  • Aleksandrova, A., Truntsevsky, Y., & Polutova, M. (2022). Digitalization and its impact on economic growth. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 42, 424-441.
  • Atkins, F. J., & Serletis, A. (2003). Bounds Tests of the Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect: Evidence from Low‐Frequency International Data. The Manchester School, 71(6), 673-679.
  • Badam, D., & Gochhait, S. (2020). Digitalization and its Impact on Indian Economy. European Journal of Molecular & Clinical Medicine, 7(06), 1-26, 1559-1568.
  • Bakari, S., El Weriemmi, M., & Mabrouki, M. (2022). The Impact of Digitalization and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Richest Asian Countries (No. 113816). University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2004). Panel Data: Theory and applications. Physica-Verlag.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3rd Edition). England JW &Sons.
  • Barbieri, L. (2008). Panel cointegration tests: a survey. Panel Cointegration Tests: A Survey,1, 3-36.
  • Briggs, K., & Sheehan, K. M. (2019). Service trade liberalization and economic growth. The Journal of Developing Areas, 53(4), 101-115. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2018.0073.
  • Castaldo, A., Fiorini, A., & Maggi, B. (2018). Measuring (in a time of crisis) the impact of broadband connections on economic growth: an OECD panel analysis. Applied Economics, 50(8), 838-854. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1343448.
  • Covaci, G., & Moldovan, S. (2015). Of service exports of Lithuania: A gravity model approach. SSE Riga Student Research Papers, 1, 166.
  • Çakmak, E., Bozkurt, E., Aksu H., & Emsen, Ö. (2011). Türkiye'de Hizmet Ticareti ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Sosyoekonomi, 16(16), 21-40.
  • Çapık, E., & Ünlü Ören, H. G. (2023). Analysis of the Relationship between Service Export and Economic Growth in the Framework of South Caucasus Countries. Sosyoekonomi, 31(55), 233-252.
  • Çeştepe, H., Vergil, Hasan., & Ergun, H. (2012). Hizmet ticaretinin büyümeye etkisi: gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir panel veri analizi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 3(4), 91-105.
  • Dahlman, C., Mealy, S., & Wermelinger, M. (2016). Harnessing the Digital Economy for Developing Countries. Paris: OECD. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/4adffb24-en.pd.
  • Dash, R. K., & Parida, P. C. (2013). FDI, services trade and economic growth in India: empirical evidence on causal links. Empirical Economics, 45, 217-238.
  • Edquist, H., Goodridge, P., Haskel, J., Li, X., & Lindquist, E. (2018). How important are mobile broadband networks for the global economic development?. Information Economics and Policy, 45, 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2018.10.001.
  • Eichengreen, B., & Gupta, P. (2012). Exports of services: Indian experience in perspective. Indian Growth and Development Review. 6(1), 35-60. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538251311329540.
  • Freund, C., & Weinhold, D. (2002). The Internet and international trade in services. American Economic Review, 92(2), 236-240.
  • Gabriele, A. (2006). Exports of services, exports of goods, and economic growth in developing countries. Journal of Economic Integration. 21(2). 294-317.
  • Gnangnon, S. K. (2020). Services export diversification and economic growth. 18(1), 49-86. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-16491/v.
  • Gujarati, D.N. ve Porter, D. C. (2012). Basic Ecnometrics. New York: Mc Graw-Hill.
  • Herman, P., & Oliver, S. (2022). Trade, Policy, and Economic Development in the Digital Economy. Economics Working Paper Series.
  • Hoekman, B. (2021, September). Digitalization, International Trade, and Arab Economies: External Policy Implications. Economic Research Forum (ERF). Working Paper No. 1484.
  • Hoekman, B., & Mattoo, A. (2008). Services trade and growth. Opening markets for trade in services: Countries and sectors in bilateral and WTO negotiations, 21-58.
  • Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  • İnançlı, S., & Torusdağ, M. (2022). Uluslararası hizmet ticaretinin cari denge ve ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Journal of Original Studies, 3(1), 31-42. https://doi.org/10.47243/jos.3.1.03.
  • Jiang, M., & Jia, P. (2022). Does the level of digitalized service drive the global export of digital service trade? Evidence from global perspective. Telematics and Informatics, 72, 101853. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2022.101853.
  • Kaliappan, S. R., Ahmad, S. A., & Ismail, N. W. (2017). Service Export and Economic Growth in The Selected Developing Asian Countries. International Journal of Economics & Management, 11(2), 393-418.
  • Kandilov, I. T., & Grennes, T. (2010). The determinants of service exports from Central and Eastern Europe. Economics of Transition, 18(4), 763-794.
  • Karam, F., & Zaki, C. (2015). Trade volume and economic growth in the MENA region: Goods or services?. Economic Modelling, 45, 22-37.
  • Kaur, S. (2011). Determinants of export services of USA with its Asian partners: A panel data analysis. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 4(8), 101-117.
  • El Khoury, A. C., & Savvides, A. (2006). Openness in services trade and economic growth. Economics Letters, 92(2), 277-283. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2006.03.003.
  • Ergün, S., & Polat, M. A. (2015). OECD ülkelerinde CO2 emisyonu, elektrik tüketimi ve büyüme ilişkisi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (45), 115-141.
  • Gujarati, D.N. ve Porter, D. C. (2012). Basic Ecnometrics. New York: Mc Graw-Hill.
  • Harb, N. (2004). Money demand function: a heterogeneous panel application. Applied Economics Letters, 11(9), 551-555.
  • Kiratli, F. (2019). Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de Hizmet Ticaretinin Gelişimi. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi (İKTİSAD), 4(9), 146-158.
  • Koca, A. & Yıldırım, N. (2021). Türkiye ekonomisinde hizmet ihracatının temel belirleyicileri: zaman serisi analizi. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 39(3), 441-458.
  • Li, X., Greenaway, D., & Hine, R. C. (2005). Imports of services and economic growth: A dynamic panel approach. Informacion Comercial Espanola-Monthly Edıtıon, 824, 7.
  • Maiti, M., & Kayal, P. (2017). Digitization: Its impact on economic development & trade. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(6), 541-549.
  • Maune, A. (2019). Trade in services-economic growth nexus: an analysis of the growth impact of trade in services in SADC countries. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 11(2), 58-78.
  • Maurer, R. (1994). International trade and economic growth: A survey of empirical studies.
  • Kiel Working Paper, No. 660, Kiel Institute of World Economics.
  • Meyer, D. F. (2021). A comparative analysis of the impact of merchandise exports versus services exports on economic growth for the SACU region. In Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 9(1), 5-23.
  • Mishra, S., Lundström, S., & Anand, R. (2011). Service export sophistication and economic growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (5606).
  • Muhtaseb, B. M. (2015). International Trade in Services and Economic Growth: The Case of Jordan. Jordan Journal of Economic Sciences, 2(2), 181-197.
  • Myovella, G., Karacuka, M., & Haucap, J. (2020). Digitalization and economic growth: A comparative analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa and OECD economies. Telecommunications Policy, 44(2), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2019.101856.
  • Nasir, S., & Kalirajan, K. (2014). Modern services export performances among emerging and developed Asian economies. Regional Economic Integration Working Papers.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Systems in Context (Other)
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Büşra Özer Aksoy 0000-0002-9771-4979

Fatma Ünlü 0000-0003-1822-9965

Early Pub Date January 26, 2024
Publication Date January 31, 2024
Submission Date July 25, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024Volume: 25 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Özer Aksoy, B., & Ünlü, F. (2024). Hizmet İhracatı ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Bağlantıda Dijital Teknolojilerin Moderatör Etkisi: Yüksek Gelirli Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(1), 127-141. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1332368
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