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Presidential Election Crises in Lebanon: Political Power-Sharing and Weak State Dynamics

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 85 - 101, 30.04.2025
https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1618440

Abstract

This study focuses on the presidential election crises in Lebanon, examining the relationship between the country’s sectarian power-sharing political system and weak state dynamics, as well as the impact of external actors on these processes. Lebanon’s consociational democracy model aims to ensure the political representation of different religious and sectarian groups within society. However, this system has created a rigid structure resistant to reforms, perpetuating a cycle of constant crises. The study examines the presidential election terms of Michel Suleiman in 2008, Michel Aoun in 2016, and Joseph Aoun in 2025 as case studies. It finds that the political deadlocks experienced during these periods were shaped not only by Lebanon’s internal dynamics but also by the interventions of regional and international actors. Specifically, the analysis highlights the effects of political polarization following Rafik Hariri’s assassination, the Syrian Civil War, and the Hezbollah-Israel War on presidential election processes. Using a qualitative approach, the research draws on academic articles, reports, and media sources. Findings reveal that the current power-sharing system increases vulnerability to external interventions, obstructs decision-making processes, and perpetuates Lebanon’s status as a “weak state.” Moreover, unresolved representation issues and the continuous postponement of political reform initiatives sustain the cycle of crises. The study emphasizes that Lebanon’s example offers valuable lessons for countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, which face similar sectarian and/or ethnic divisions. The findings suggest that achieving political stability in Lebanon requires limiting external interventions, establishing a more inclusive constitutional framework, and implementing reforms to enhance representation.

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Lübnan’da Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçim Krizleri: Siyasi Güç Paylaşımı ve Zayıf Devlet Dinamikleri

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 85 - 101, 30.04.2025
https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1618440

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Lübnan’daki cumhurbaşkanlığı seçim krizlerini merkeze alarak, mezhepsel güç paylaşımına dayalı siyasi sistemin zayıf devlet dinamikleriyle ilişkisini ve dış aktörlerin bu süreçlere etkisini incelemektedir. Lübnan’ın konsosyonel demokrasi modeli, toplumdaki farklı din ve mezheplerin siyasi temsilini sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Ancak, bu sistem, yapısal sorunlar nedeniyle değişime kapalı bir yapı oluşturmuş ve sürekli kriz üreten bir düzen yaratmıştır. Çalışma, 2008’de Mişel Süleyman, 2016’da Mişel Aun ve 2025’te Joseph Aun’un cumhurbaşkanı olarak seçildiği dönemleri örnek vakalar olarak ele almaktadır. Bu dönemlerde yaşanan siyasi tıkanıklıkların, Lübnan’ın iç dinamiklerinin yanı sıra, bölgesel ve uluslararası güçlerin müdahaleleriyle şekillendiği görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Refik Hariri suikastı sonrası ortaya çıkan siyasi kutuplaşmanın, Suriye İç Savaşı’nın ve Hizbullah-İsrail Savaşı’nın cumhurbaşkanlığı seçim süreçlerine etkisi analiz edilmektedir. Araştırmada, nitel bir yöntem izlenmiş; akademik makaleler, raporlar ve medya haberlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bulgular, güç paylaşımına dayalı mevcut sistemin dış müdahalelere açıklığı artırdığını, siyasi karar alma süreçlerini tıkadığını ve Lübnan’ı zayıf devlet statüsünde tuttuğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, temsiliyet sorunlarının çözümsüz kalması ve siyasi reform girişimlerinin mütemadiyen ertelenmesi krizlerin sürekliliğini sağlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, Lübnan örneğinin, mezhepsel ve/veya etnik bölünmelere sahip Irak, Suriye ve Yemen gibi ülkeler için önemli dersler sunduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Çalışmada, siyasi istikrarın sağlanabilmesi için dış müdahalelerin sınırlandırılması, daha kapsayıcı bir anayasal düzenin oluşturulması ve temsiliyeti artıracak adımların atılması gerektiği önerilmektedir.

References

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There are 73 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Policy and Administration (Other)
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Talha İsmail Duman 0000-0001-7638-2082

Publication Date April 30, 2025
Submission Date January 13, 2025
Acceptance Date April 26, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025Volume: 26 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Duman, T. İ. (2025). Lübnan’da Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçim Krizleri: Siyasi Güç Paylaşımı ve Zayıf Devlet Dinamikleri. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(2), 85-101. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1618440

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