Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis

Seda Ertürk; Selçuk Koç

doi:10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

TR EN

Türkiye'nin Demografik Temettüsü Var mı? Düzey 2 Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’de nüfus yaşlanmaya devam ettikçe, çalışma çağındaki nüfusun toplam nüfus içindeki payı da azalmaya başlamıştır. Ancak ülkenin nüfusu yaşlanırken çalışma çağındaki nüfusun payının en fazla 2/3 olması demografik bir fırsat penceresi oluştururken ekonomik büyüme için bir demografik temettü elde edeceği anlamına gelebilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin farklı doğurganlık oranlarına sahip NUTS 2 bölgelerinde 2023-2050 yılları için demografik temettü projeksiyon analizi ile hesaplanmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin 2023 yılında demografik temettü sürecine girdiği ve 2036-2037 yıllarında zirve yapabileceği tahmin edilmektedir. 2050 yılına kadar bu sürecin devam edeceği tahmin edilmektedir. NUTS 2 bölgeleri incelendiğinde bazı bölgelerin TR31 (İzmir) ve TR62 (Adana-Mersin) en yüksek demografik temettü elde etmesi öngörülmektedir. Bu bölgelerde temettünün 2050 yılına kadar devam edileceği tahmin edilirken, doğurganlık oranının düşük seyrettiği TR83 (Samsun, Tokat, Çorum, Amasya) bölgesinde 2044 yılına kadar süreceği ve demografik fırsat penceresinin kapancağı öngörülmektedir. Bu bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin demografik fırsat penceresinden en iyi yararlanabilmesi için beşeri sermaye yatırımlarını artırması, iş gücüne katılımı teşvik eden politikalar geliştirmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Aksi durumda, yaşlanan nüfusa sahip olan Türkiye için ekonomik büyüme potansiyelinin azalacağı düşünülmektedir.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Economic Theory (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Seda Ertürk ^*
0000-0001-5505-8750
Türkiye

Selçuk Koç
0000-0001-7451-2699
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

January 19, 2025

Publication Date

January 21, 2025

Submission Date

October 2, 2024

Acceptance Date

November 14, 2024

Published in Issue

Year 1970 Volume: 26 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA85CP87GE

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2025). Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(1), 156-166. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

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Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis

Türkiye'nin Demografik Temettüsü Var mı? Düzey 2 Analizi

Öz

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