Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis

Seda Ertürk; Selçuk Koç

doi:10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

TR EN

Türkiye'nin Demografik Temettüsü Var mı? Düzey 2 Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’de nüfus yaşlanmaya devam ettikçe, çalışma çağındaki nüfusun toplam nüfus içindeki payı da azalmaya başlamıştır. Ancak ülkenin nüfusu yaşlanırken çalışma çağındaki nüfusun payının en fazla 2/3 olması demografik bir fırsat penceresi oluştururken ekonomik büyüme için bir demografik temettü elde edeceği anlamına gelebilir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin farklı doğurganlık oranlarına sahip NUTS 2 bölgelerinde 2023-2050 yılları için demografik temettü projeksiyon analizi ile hesaplanmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin 2023 yılında demografik temettü sürecine girdiği ve 2036-2037 yıllarında zirve yapabileceği tahmin edilmektedir. 2050 yılına kadar bu sürecin devam edeceği tahmin edilmektedir. NUTS 2 bölgeleri incelendiğinde bazı bölgelerin TR31 (İzmir) ve TR62 (Adana-Mersin) en yüksek demografik temettü elde etmesi öngörülmektedir. Bu bölgelerde temettünün 2050 yılına kadar devam edileceği tahmin edilirken, doğurganlık oranının düşük seyrettiği TR83 (Samsun, Tokat, Çorum, Amasya) bölgesinde 2044 yılına kadar süreceği ve demografik fırsat penceresinin kapancağı öngörülmektedir. Bu bulgulara göre, Türkiye’nin demografik fırsat penceresinden en iyi yararlanabilmesi için beşeri sermaye yatırımlarını artırması, iş gücüne katılımı teşvik eden politikalar geliştirmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Aksi durumda, yaşlanan nüfusa sahip olan Türkiye için ekonomik büyüme potansiyelinin azalacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis

Abstract

As the population in Turkey continues to age, the share of the working-age population in the total population has also started to decline. However, the fact that the share of the working-age population is at most 2/3 while the country's population is ageing may occur a demographic window of opportunity and a demographic dividend for economic growth. In this study, the demographic dividend for 2023-2050 in NUTS 2 regions of Turkey with different fertility rates is calculated by projection analysis. According to the results of the study, it is estimated that Turkey entered the demographic dividend process in 2023 and may peak in 2036-2037. This trend is expected to persist until 2050. An analysis of NUTS 2 regions suggests that certain areas, such as TR31 (İzmir) and TR62 (Adana-Mersin), are projected to achieve the highest demographic dividend. This trend is expected to persist until 2050. An analysis of NUTS 2 regions suggests that certain areas, such as TR31 (İzmir) and TR62 (Adana-Mersin), are projected to achieve the highest demographic dividend. This trend is expected to persist until 2050. An analysis of NUTS 2 regions suggests that certain areas, such as TR31 (İzmir) and TR62 (Adana-Mersin), are projected to achieve the highest demographic dividend.

Keywords

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Ekonomi Teorisi (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Seda Ertürk ^*
0000-0001-5505-8750
Türkiye

Selçuk Koç
0000-0001-7451-2699
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

19 Ocak 2025

Yayımlanma Tarihi

21 Ocak 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

2 Ekim 2024

Kabul Tarihi

14 Kasım 2024

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA85CP87GE

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2025). Does Türkiye Have a Demographic Dividend? NUTS 2 Analysis. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(1), 156-166. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1560382

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