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Türkiye'de Demokrasi ve Kamu Borcu Etkileşiminin Ampirik Analizi

Year 2021, , 113 - 134, 07.05.2021

Orhan Cengiz , Müge Manga

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.741743

Abstract

Yeni politik ekonomi literatüründe demokrasiyle kamu borçlanması arasındaki ilişki seçim sistemi, parti yapısı, politik rejimler başta olmak üzere birçok unsur kapsamında incelenmektedir. Demokrasilerde karar alma sürecinde etkili olan faktörler hükümetleri kamu harcaması ve bütçe üzerinde farklı inisiyatiflere yönlendirerek kamu borcunu etkilemektedir. Böylelikle demokrasi ile kamu borcu arasındaki ilişki ayrı bir önem kazanmaktadır. Buradan yola çıkarak bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1975-2015 dönemi verileri kullanılarak demokrasi ile kamu borcu ilişkisi test edilmiştir. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre demokrasiden uzaklaşıldıkça kamu borcu da artmaktadır. Belirli bir eşik değerinden sonra ise azalmaya başlamaktadır. VECM Granger nedensellik testi bulguları ise hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde demokrasi, demokrasinin karesi ve kamu harcamalarından kamu borcuna doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisini gösterirken, ekonomik büyümeden kamu borcuna doğru sadece uzun dönemde tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını ifade etmektedir.

Keywords

Demokrasi Kamu Borcu Kamu Harcamaları ARDL Sınır Testi Yeni Politik Ekonomi

References

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  • Alesina, A. & Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 465-490.
  • Alt, J. E. & Lassen, D. D. (2006). Fiscal Transparency, Political Parties, and Debt in OECD Countries, European Economic Review, 50(6), 1403-1439.
  • Altun, T. (2014). Türkiye’de Fırsatçı ve Partizan Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2010. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B. Dergisi, XXXVI(II), 47-69.
  • Balassone, F., Francese, M. & Pace, A. (2011). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy. Bank of Italy Economic History Working Paper (11).
  • Bittencourt, M. (2015). Determinants of Government and External Debt: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51, 463-472.
  • Bougharriou, N., Benayed, W. & Gabsi, F. B. (2018). How Does Democracy Affect Public Debt? Evidence from the Arab World. Economics Discussion Papers, No. 2018-54, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, 1-12.
  • Buchanan, J. M. (1958). Public Principles of Public Debt: A Defense and Restatement. Homewood, IL: Richard R. Irwin, Inc.
  • Buchanan, J. M. & Tullock, G. (1962). The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Cameron, D. R. (1978). The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis. The American Political Science Review, 72(4), 1243-1261.
  • Chaudhuri, K. & Dasgupta, S. (2005). The Political Determinants of Central Governments’ Economic Policies in India: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of International Development, 17, 957-978.
  • Cusack, T. R. (1997). Partisan Politics and Public finance: Changes in Public Spending in the Industrialized Democracies, 1955-1989. Public Choice, 91, 375-395.
  • De Haan, J. & Sturm, J. E. (1994). Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy in the European Community. Public Choice, 80(1-2), 157-172.
  • De Haan, J. & Sturm, J. E. (1997). Political and Economic Determinants of OECD Budget Deficits and Government Expenditures: A Reinvestigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 13(4), 739-750.
  • Durkaya, M., Ceylan, S. & Beken, O. O. (2010). Kamu Borçlanması Kamu Yatırımlarını Dışlıyor Mu?. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 21(74), 39-58.
  • Elgin, C. & Uras, B. R. (2013). Public Debt, Sovereign Default Risk and Shadow Economy. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 628-640.
  • Erdem, E. & İlgün, M. F. (2017). Mali Disiplin Üzerinde Politik Faktörlerin Etkisi: Az Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Yönelik Uygulamalı Bir Analiz. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 67(1), 1-23.
  • Feld, L. P. & Kirchgässner, G. (2001). Does Direct Democracy Reduce Public Debt? Evidence from Swiss Municipalities. Public Choice, 109, 347-370.
  • Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world (Erişim Tarihi: 10.04.2020).
  • Gabriel, Z. B. & Marian, D. (2012). Public Debt Service and Its İmpact on Public Expenditures. Rev Econ, 4, 655-664.
  • González-Fernández, M. & González-Velasco, C. (2014). Shadow Economy, Corruption and Public Debt in Spain. Journal of Policy Modelling, 36, 1101-1117.
  • Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D. & Tabellini, G. (1991). Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Financial Policies in the Industrial Countries. Economic Policy, 6(13), 341-392.
  • Hallerberg, M. & Von Hagen, J. (1999). Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union. In James M. Poterba & Jürgen Von Hagen (Eds.), Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance (pp. 209-232). Chicago & London: University of Chicago Press.
  • Hibbs, D. A. (1977). Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy. The American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467-1487.
  • IMF (2020). https://www.imf.org/en/Data (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2020).
  • Javid, A. Y., Arif, U. & Arif, A. (2011). Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility in Selected Asian Countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 50(4 Part II), 649-662.
  • Narayan, P. K. & Popp, S. (2010). A New Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Neck, R. & Getzner, M. (2001). Politico-Economic Determinants of Public Debt Growth: A Case Study for Austria. Public Choice, 109, 243-268.
  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169-190.
  • Odo, S. I., Igberi, C. O. & Anoke, C. I. (2016). Public Debt and Public Expenditure in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 7(10), 27-38.
  • Panizza, U. & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There A Causal Effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
  • Persson, T. & Tabellini, G. (1999). The Size and Scope of Government: Comparative Politics with Rational Politicians. European Economic Review, 43(4), 699-735.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Plümper, T. & Martin, C. W. (2003). Democracy, Government Spending, and Economic Growth: A Political-Economic Explanation of the Barro-Effect. Public Choice, 117, 27-50.
  • Roubini, N. & Sachs, J. D. (1989). Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the Industrial Democracies. European Economic Review, 33, 903-933.
  • Saungweme, T. & Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach. SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business, 69(4), 53-73.
  • Streeck, W. (2013). The Politics of Public Debt: Neoliberalism, Capitalist Development, and the Restructuring of the State. MPIfG Discussion Paper, 13/7, 1-24.
  • Telatar, F. (2004). Politik İktisat Politikası. Ankara: İmaj Yayınları.
  • The globaleconomy.com, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/download-data.php (Erişim Tarihi: 02.04.2020).
  • Wagschal, U. (1997). Direct Democracy and Public Policymaking. Journal of Public Policy, 17(2), 223-245.
  • Wehner, J. & De Renzio, P. (2013). Citizens, Legislators, and Executive Disclosure: The Political Determinants of Fiscal Transparency. World Development, 41(1), 96-108.
  • Woo, J. (2003). Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants of Public Deficits. Journal of Public Economics, 87(3), 387-426.
  • World Bank (2020). World Development Indicator (Erişim Tarihi: 10.04.2020).
  • Yıldız, F. (2014). Türkiye’de 1990-2012 Döneminde Kamu Borç Yönetimi ve Kamu Borç Yapısındaki Değişim Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 3(4), 67-104.

Year 2021, , 113 - 134, 07.05.2021

Orhan Cengiz , Müge Manga

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.741743

Abstract

References

  • Adom, P. K. (2016). The DDT Effect: The Case of Economic Growth, Public Debt and Democracy Relationship. MPRA Paper No. 75022, 1-35.
  • Alesina, A. & Rodrik, D. (1994). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 465-490.
  • Alt, J. E. & Lassen, D. D. (2006). Fiscal Transparency, Political Parties, and Debt in OECD Countries, European Economic Review, 50(6), 1403-1439.
  • Altun, T. (2014). Türkiye’de Fırsatçı ve Partizan Politik Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalar: 1950-2010. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B. Dergisi, XXXVI(II), 47-69.
  • Balassone, F., Francese, M. & Pace, A. (2011). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy. Bank of Italy Economic History Working Paper (11).
  • Bittencourt, M. (2015). Determinants of Government and External Debt: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51, 463-472.
  • Bougharriou, N., Benayed, W. & Gabsi, F. B. (2018). How Does Democracy Affect Public Debt? Evidence from the Arab World. Economics Discussion Papers, No. 2018-54, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, 1-12.
  • Buchanan, J. M. (1958). Public Principles of Public Debt: A Defense and Restatement. Homewood, IL: Richard R. Irwin, Inc.
  • Buchanan, J. M. & Tullock, G. (1962). The Calculus of Consent: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Cameron, D. R. (1978). The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis. The American Political Science Review, 72(4), 1243-1261.
  • Chaudhuri, K. & Dasgupta, S. (2005). The Political Determinants of Central Governments’ Economic Policies in India: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of International Development, 17, 957-978.
  • Cusack, T. R. (1997). Partisan Politics and Public finance: Changes in Public Spending in the Industrialized Democracies, 1955-1989. Public Choice, 91, 375-395.
  • De Haan, J. & Sturm, J. E. (1994). Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy in the European Community. Public Choice, 80(1-2), 157-172.
  • De Haan, J. & Sturm, J. E. (1997). Political and Economic Determinants of OECD Budget Deficits and Government Expenditures: A Reinvestigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 13(4), 739-750.
  • Durkaya, M., Ceylan, S. & Beken, O. O. (2010). Kamu Borçlanması Kamu Yatırımlarını Dışlıyor Mu?. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 21(74), 39-58.
  • Elgin, C. & Uras, B. R. (2013). Public Debt, Sovereign Default Risk and Shadow Economy. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(4), 628-640.
  • Erdem, E. & İlgün, M. F. (2017). Mali Disiplin Üzerinde Politik Faktörlerin Etkisi: Az Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Yönelik Uygulamalı Bir Analiz. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 67(1), 1-23.
  • Feld, L. P. & Kirchgässner, G. (2001). Does Direct Democracy Reduce Public Debt? Evidence from Swiss Municipalities. Public Choice, 109, 347-370.
  • Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world (Erişim Tarihi: 10.04.2020).
  • Gabriel, Z. B. & Marian, D. (2012). Public Debt Service and Its İmpact on Public Expenditures. Rev Econ, 4, 655-664.
  • González-Fernández, M. & González-Velasco, C. (2014). Shadow Economy, Corruption and Public Debt in Spain. Journal of Policy Modelling, 36, 1101-1117.
  • Grilli, V., Masciandaro, D. & Tabellini, G. (1991). Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Financial Policies in the Industrial Countries. Economic Policy, 6(13), 341-392.
  • Hallerberg, M. & Von Hagen, J. (1999). Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union. In James M. Poterba & Jürgen Von Hagen (Eds.), Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance (pp. 209-232). Chicago & London: University of Chicago Press.
  • Hibbs, D. A. (1977). Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy. The American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467-1487.
  • IMF (2020). https://www.imf.org/en/Data (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2020).
  • Javid, A. Y., Arif, U. & Arif, A. (2011). Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Deficits Volatility in Selected Asian Countries. The Pakistan Development Review, 50(4 Part II), 649-662.
  • Narayan, P. K. & Popp, S. (2010). A New Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Neck, R. & Getzner, M. (2001). Politico-Economic Determinants of Public Debt Growth: A Case Study for Austria. Public Choice, 109, 243-268.
  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The Political Business Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169-190.
  • Odo, S. I., Igberi, C. O. & Anoke, C. I. (2016). Public Debt and Public Expenditure in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 7(10), 27-38.
  • Panizza, U. & Presbitero, A. F. (2014). Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There A Causal Effect?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 41, 21-41.
  • Persson, T. & Tabellini, G. (1999). The Size and Scope of Government: Comparative Politics with Rational Politicians. European Economic Review, 43(4), 699-735.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Plümper, T. & Martin, C. W. (2003). Democracy, Government Spending, and Economic Growth: A Political-Economic Explanation of the Barro-Effect. Public Choice, 117, 27-50.
  • Roubini, N. & Sachs, J. D. (1989). Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the Industrial Democracies. European Economic Review, 33, 903-933.
  • Saungweme, T. & Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach. SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business, 69(4), 53-73.
  • Streeck, W. (2013). The Politics of Public Debt: Neoliberalism, Capitalist Development, and the Restructuring of the State. MPIfG Discussion Paper, 13/7, 1-24.
  • Telatar, F. (2004). Politik İktisat Politikası. Ankara: İmaj Yayınları.
  • The globaleconomy.com, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/download-data.php (Erişim Tarihi: 02.04.2020).
  • Wagschal, U. (1997). Direct Democracy and Public Policymaking. Journal of Public Policy, 17(2), 223-245.
  • Wehner, J. & De Renzio, P. (2013). Citizens, Legislators, and Executive Disclosure: The Political Determinants of Fiscal Transparency. World Development, 41(1), 96-108.
  • Woo, J. (2003). Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants of Public Deficits. Journal of Public Economics, 87(3), 387-426.
  • World Bank (2020). World Development Indicator (Erişim Tarihi: 10.04.2020).
  • Yıldız, F. (2014). Türkiye’de 1990-2012 Döneminde Kamu Borç Yönetimi ve Kamu Borç Yapısındaki Değişim Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 3(4), 67-104.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Orhan Cengiz 0000-0002-1883-4754

Müge Manga 0000-0003-2675-2182

Publication Date May 7, 2021
Submission Date May 23, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2021

Cite

APA Cengiz, O., & Manga, M. (2021). Türkiye’de Demokrasi ve Kamu Borcu Etkileşiminin Ampirik Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(1), 113-134. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.741743

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