The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: A Structural Gravity Equation Analyses

Ebru Aricioğlu

doi:10.37880/cumuiibf.1673185

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Bölgesel Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Ticaret Akımları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Yapısal Yerçekimi Denklemi Analizi

Öz

Bölgesel ticaret anlaşmaları, 1990’ların başından bu yana hızlı bir şekilde artmıştır ve hemen hemen tüm ülkeler bir veya daha fazla bölgesel ticaret anlaşması imzalamışlardır. Ayrıca bu anlaşmaların derinliği ve karmaşıklığı yıllar içinde giderek artmıştır. 1950'lerde Viner'in klasik gümrük birliği teorisinin geliştirilmesinden bu yana, bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının uluslararası ticaret hacmi üzerindeki etkisi üzerine çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Fakat bu çalışmaların sonuçları zaman zaman birbirleri ile çelişen sonuçlar vermektedir. Bu makale, bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının dış ticaret hacmi üzerindeki kısmi etkisini çekim modeli kullanarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca çalışmada, Tinbergen ile başlayan ve günümüze kadar olan devam eden ekonomik entegrasyon literatüründeki gelişmeler ortaya konulmuştur. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada, uluslararası ve yurt içi ticaret verileri kullanılarak 1966-2020 dönemi için bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının uluslararası ticaret hacmi üzerindeki etkisi, çekim modelinin PPML tahmin yöntemi ile tahmin edilmesi ile ortaya konulmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar, en derin ve en eski ekonomik entegrasyonlardan biri olan Avrupa Birliği’nin standart bir bölgesel ticaret anlaşmasına kıyasla ikili ticareti önemli ölçüde artırdığını göstermektedir. Dolayısı ile, Avrupa Birliği'nin bu bağlamda uyguladığı politikalar, diğer ülkelerin imzalayacağı serbest ticaret anlaşmaları için yol gösterici nitelikte olabilir. Ayrıca çalışmadan elde edilen diğer sonuçlar ise, bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının ikili ticareti yurtiçi satışlara kıyasla daha fazla arttırdığını ve küreselleşmenin ülkeler arasındaki ticaret arttırdığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: A Structural Gravity Equation Analyses

Abstract

Regional trade agreements have markedly increased over the past few decades. Almost every country participates in one or more regional trade agreements, and the depth and complexity of these signed agreements have also increased. Since the development of Viner's classic customs union theory in the 1950s, there has been considerable research on the effect of regional trade agreements on international trade volume. Still, the findings have been varied and mixed. This article analyses the partial effect of regional trade agreements on trade volume, tracing the advancements in gravity and economic integration literature from Tinbergen's initial research to the present day. In this context, by using international and intranational trade data, this article uses the gravity equation with the PPML estimation method to reveal the effect of regional trade agreements on trade flows for the 1966–2020 period. According to the results, besides international trade flows intranational trade flows and globalization are essential components when estimating the effects of regional trade agreements. Additionally, the findings show that the European Union, being one of the deepest and oldest economic integrations, considerably increases the bilateral trade compared to a standard regional trade agreement. Therefore, the policies implemented by the European Union in this context could serve as a guiding example for free trade agreements that other countries might sign.

Keywords

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Ekonomi Teorisi (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Ebru Aricioğlu ^*
0000-0001-8278-0167
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

19 Temmuz 2025

Yayımlanma Tarihi

25 Temmuz 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

10 Nisan 2025

Kabul Tarihi

14 Temmuz 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1673185

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA54CE88ZF

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Aricioğlu, E. (2025). The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: A Structural Gravity Equation Analyses. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3), 569-583. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1673185

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