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Yıl 2014, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 33 - 53, 25.04.2014

Burcu Özcan

Öz

This study aims to examine sources of inflation for 44 developing countries using GMM dynamic panel data estimation over the period 2000-2009. According to the results, inflation inertia, excess money supply, current account deficit, increases in level of trade openness and nominal exchange rate lead inflation to accelerate. However, economic growth seems to contribute to decreases in inflation rates. Being one of the main income sources in developing countries, workers remittance doesn’t seem to create a channel for inflationary pressure.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation Developing Countries Monetary Growth Economic Growth Dynamic Panel Data Estimation.

Kaynakça

  • AĞAYEV, Seymur (2012), “Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Enflasyon Oranı Belirleyicileri; Panel Veri Analizi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol. 12; 59-7
  • AISEN, Ari ve Jose Veiga FRANCISCO (2006), “Does political instability lead to higher inflation? A Panel Data Analysis”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 38; 1379-1389.
  • AL-SHAMMARI, Nayef ve Mohammed AL-SABAEY (2012), “Inflation Sources Across Developed and Developing Countries; Panel Approach”, International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol.11; 185-194.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil, Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ ve Sami TABAN (2008), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı, Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi: 1992–2006”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol.8;185–208.
  • ANDERSON, Theodore Wilbur ve Cheng HSIAO (1981), Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components, Journal ofthe American Statistical Association, Vol.76; 598–606.
  • ARELLANO, Manuel ve Stephen BOND (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol.58; 277–297.
  • BARBAKADZE, Ivane (2008), Explaining Inflation in Georgia: Do Exchange Rate and Nominal Wage Matter?, The National Bank Georgia Working Paper WP4, İnternet Adresi; http://www.nbg.gov.ge/uploads/workingpaper/nbgwp04.08.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 04.06.2012
  • BARNICHON, Regis ve Shanaka J. PEIRIS (2008), “Sources of Inflation in SubSaharan Africa”, Journal of African Economies, Vol.17; 729-746.
  • BASHER, Syed Abul ve Elsayed Mousa ELSAMADISY (2012); “Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States”, OPEC Energy Review, Vol.36; 170-203.
  • BAWUMIA, Mahamadu ve Philip ABRADU-OTOO (2003), Monetary growth, exchange rates and inflation in Ghana: an error correction analysis, Bank of Ghana Working Paper, WP/BOG-2003/05, İnternet Adresi; http://www.bog.gov.gh/privatecontent/Publications/Staff_Working_Papers/20 03/wp-05.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2012
  • BOTRIĆ, Valerija ve Boris COTA (2006), “Sources of Inflation in Transition Economy: The Case of Croatia”, Ekonomski Pregled, Vol.57; 835-855.
  • BOWDLER, Cihristopher ve Luca NUNZIATA (2006), “Trade Openness and Inflation episodes in the OECD”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.38; 553-563.
  • BOZKURT, Kurtuluş (2007), “İçsel Büyüme Modelleri Bağlamında Türk İmalat Sanayinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Finans&Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, Vol. 44; 71-81.
  • BRADA, Josef C. ve Ali M. KUTAN (1999), The End of Moderate Inflation in Tree Transition Economies?, The William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No:230, İnternet Adresi; http://www.zei.de/index_e.html , Erişim Tarihi: 02012
  • CALDERÓN, Cesar ve Klaus-Schmidt HEBBEL (2008), What Drives Inflation In The World?, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No:491, İnternet Adresi; http://www.bcentral.cl/ , Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2012.
  • CATAO, Luis A. V. ve Marco E. TERRONES (2003), Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund, İnternet Adresi; http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 20.02.2012.
  • CHIMOBI, Omoke PHILIP ve Oruta Lawrence IGWE (2010), “Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation in Nigeria”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, Vol.19; 52-60.
  • COOREY, Sharmani, Mauro MECAGNI ve Erik OFFERDAL (1996), Disinflation in Transition Economies: The Role of Relative Price Adjustment, IMF Working Paper No:138, İnternet Adresi; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/doctext.cfm?docno=WPIEA1381996 , Erişim Tarihi: 23.02.2012.
  • COTTARELLI, Carlo, Mark GRIFFITHS ve Reza MOGHADAM (1998), The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study, IMF Working Paper No:23, İnternet Adresi; http://ssrn.com/abstract=882254, Erişim Tarihi: 02012.
  • DESAI, Raj M, Anders OLOFSGARD ve Tarik M. YOUSEF (2002), Democracy, inequality, and inflation, Georgetown University, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service Working Paper, İnternet Adresi; http://www.academia.edu/4520282/Democracy_Inequality_and_Inflat ion , Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2012.
  • DUREVALL, Dick ve Njuguna NDUNG'U (2001) “A dynamic model of inflation of Kenya, 1974-96”, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 10; 92-125.
  • FISHER, Irving, (1930), The theory of interest, Macmillan, New York.
  • GREENE, W. H. (2000), Econometric Analysis, 4 th Edition, Prentice-Hall International, New Jersey, USA.
  • HAMMERMANN, Felix (2007), Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation in Romania: A Decomposition, Kiel Working Paper No. 1322, İnternet Adresi; http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/nonmonetarydeterminants-of-inflation-in-romania-a-decomposition/kap1322.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2012.
  • HERNANDEZ-CATA, Ernesto (1999), Price Liberalization, Money Growth, and Inflation During the Transition to a Market Economy, IMF Working Paper WP/99/76, İnternet Adresi; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp9976.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 02012.
  • INOUE, Takeshi (2005), “The Determinants of Inflation Rate in Transition Countries -A Panel Data Analysis”, Bulletin of the Japan Association for Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 42; 15-23.
  • KHAN, Mohsin S. ve Axel SCHIMMELPFENNIG (2006), Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/60, İnternet Adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp0660.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 02012.
  • KIVILCIM, Metin (1995), “The Analysis of Inflation: The Case of Turkey”, Capital Market Board, No. 20, Ankara.
  • KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut (2002), “Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation, Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey”, Eds. A. Kibritçioğlu, L. Rittenberg ve F. Selçuk, Ashgate Publishing Limited, Aldershot, Hampshire, England içinde, 43-76.
  • KIM, Byung Yeon (2001), Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach, Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition Discussion Papers, 16, İnternet Adresi; http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/ dp160pdf ; Erişim Tarihi: 10.02.2012.
  • KOMULAINEN, Tuomas ve Jukka PIRTTILÄ (2000), Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No:1, İnternet Adresi; http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/ dp1100.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 23.02.2012.
  • LARYEA, Samuel A. ve Ussif Rashid SUMAILA (2001), Determinants of inflation in Tanzania, CMI Working Papers, No:12, İnternet Adresi: http://bora.cmi.no/dspace/bitstream/10202/215/1/WP2001-12.PDF , Erişim Tarihi: 26.02.2012.
  • LAURA Alfaro (2005), “Inflation, openness, and exchange-rate regimes: The quest for short-term commitment”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 77; 229–249.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar, Seema NARAYAN ve Sagarika MISHRA (2011), “Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol.77; 914-933.
  • PRAKASH, Loungani ve Phillip SWAGEl (1995), Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries, International Finance Discussion Papers 515, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), İnternet Adresi; http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1995/515/ifdp515.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 22.02.2012.
  • ROODMAN, David (2006), How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata, Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development, İnternet Adresi; http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/11619_file_HowtoDoxtabond8_with _foreword_0.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 26.02.2012.
  • SAATÇİOĞLU, Cem ve H. Levent KORAP (2005), “An Empirical Analysis of Turkish Inflation (1988-2004): Some Non-Monetarist Estimations”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 26.
  • ŞAHİNOĞLU, Tuba, Kenan ÖZDEN, Selim BAŞAR ve Hayati. AKSU (2010), “Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Oluşumu: ARDL Yaklaşımı”, Sosyo-Ekonomi, Vol.1; 27-46.
  • TEKİN-KORU, Ayça ve Erdal ÖZMEN (2003),“Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence”, Applied Economics, Vol. 35; 591-596.

Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomilerde Enflasyonun Belirleyenleri: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1, 33 - 53, 25.04.2014

Burcu Özcan

Öz

Enflasyon fiyatlar genel düzeyindeki yıllık sürekli artışlar şeklinde tanımlanmaktadır. İktisatçılar arasında ise bir ülkenin temel makroekonomik problemlerinden biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bu problemi çözmeye yönelik çabalar iktisat disiplini içerisinde düşünürleri enflasyonun belirleyenlerini araştırmaya yöneltmiştir. Bu çalışma bir grup gelişmekte olan ülke için GMM dinamik panel veri tahmini kullanarak enflasyonun kaynaklarını belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, enflasyon ataleti, aşırı para arzı, cari hesap açığı, ticari açıklık düzeyindeki ve nominal döviz kurundaki artışlar enflasyonun hızlanmasına yol açmaktadır. Fakat ekonomik büyümenin enflasyon oranlarında düşmeye yol açtığı görülmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için önemli bir gelir kaynağı olan işçi gelirleri ise, enflasyonist baskıya yönelik bir kanal oluşturmamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Enflasyon, gelişmekte olan ülkeler, parasal büyüme, ekonomik büyüme, dinamik panel veri tahmini.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Parasal Büyüme Ekonomik Büyüme Dinamik Panel Veri Tahmini.

Kaynakça

  • AĞAYEV, Seymur (2012), “Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Enflasyon Oranı Belirleyicileri; Panel Veri Analizi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol. 12; 59-7
  • AISEN, Ari ve Jose Veiga FRANCISCO (2006), “Does political instability lead to higher inflation? A Panel Data Analysis”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 38; 1379-1389.
  • AL-SHAMMARI, Nayef ve Mohammed AL-SABAEY (2012), “Inflation Sources Across Developed and Developing Countries; Panel Approach”, International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol.11; 185-194.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil, Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ ve Sami TABAN (2008), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı, Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi: 1992–2006”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol.8;185–208.
  • ANDERSON, Theodore Wilbur ve Cheng HSIAO (1981), Estimation of Dynamic Models with Error Components, Journal ofthe American Statistical Association, Vol.76; 598–606.
  • ARELLANO, Manuel ve Stephen BOND (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol.58; 277–297.
  • BARBAKADZE, Ivane (2008), Explaining Inflation in Georgia: Do Exchange Rate and Nominal Wage Matter?, The National Bank Georgia Working Paper WP4, İnternet Adresi; http://www.nbg.gov.ge/uploads/workingpaper/nbgwp04.08.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 04.06.2012
  • BARNICHON, Regis ve Shanaka J. PEIRIS (2008), “Sources of Inflation in SubSaharan Africa”, Journal of African Economies, Vol.17; 729-746.
  • BASHER, Syed Abul ve Elsayed Mousa ELSAMADISY (2012); “Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States”, OPEC Energy Review, Vol.36; 170-203.
  • BAWUMIA, Mahamadu ve Philip ABRADU-OTOO (2003), Monetary growth, exchange rates and inflation in Ghana: an error correction analysis, Bank of Ghana Working Paper, WP/BOG-2003/05, İnternet Adresi; http://www.bog.gov.gh/privatecontent/Publications/Staff_Working_Papers/20 03/wp-05.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2012
  • BOTRIĆ, Valerija ve Boris COTA (2006), “Sources of Inflation in Transition Economy: The Case of Croatia”, Ekonomski Pregled, Vol.57; 835-855.
  • BOWDLER, Cihristopher ve Luca NUNZIATA (2006), “Trade Openness and Inflation episodes in the OECD”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.38; 553-563.
  • BOZKURT, Kurtuluş (2007), “İçsel Büyüme Modelleri Bağlamında Türk İmalat Sanayinde Teknolojik Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Finans&Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, Vol. 44; 71-81.
  • BRADA, Josef C. ve Ali M. KUTAN (1999), The End of Moderate Inflation in Tree Transition Economies?, The William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No:230, İnternet Adresi; http://www.zei.de/index_e.html , Erişim Tarihi: 02012
  • CALDERÓN, Cesar ve Klaus-Schmidt HEBBEL (2008), What Drives Inflation In The World?, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No:491, İnternet Adresi; http://www.bcentral.cl/ , Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2012.
  • CATAO, Luis A. V. ve Marco E. TERRONES (2003), Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund, İnternet Adresi; http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 20.02.2012.
  • CHIMOBI, Omoke PHILIP ve Oruta Lawrence IGWE (2010), “Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation in Nigeria”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, Vol.19; 52-60.
  • COOREY, Sharmani, Mauro MECAGNI ve Erik OFFERDAL (1996), Disinflation in Transition Economies: The Role of Relative Price Adjustment, IMF Working Paper No:138, İnternet Adresi; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/doctext.cfm?docno=WPIEA1381996 , Erişim Tarihi: 23.02.2012.
  • COTTARELLI, Carlo, Mark GRIFFITHS ve Reza MOGHADAM (1998), The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study, IMF Working Paper No:23, İnternet Adresi; http://ssrn.com/abstract=882254, Erişim Tarihi: 02012.
  • DESAI, Raj M, Anders OLOFSGARD ve Tarik M. YOUSEF (2002), Democracy, inequality, and inflation, Georgetown University, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service Working Paper, İnternet Adresi; http://www.academia.edu/4520282/Democracy_Inequality_and_Inflat ion , Erişim Tarihi: 03.02.2012.
  • DUREVALL, Dick ve Njuguna NDUNG'U (2001) “A dynamic model of inflation of Kenya, 1974-96”, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 10; 92-125.
  • FISHER, Irving, (1930), The theory of interest, Macmillan, New York.
  • GREENE, W. H. (2000), Econometric Analysis, 4 th Edition, Prentice-Hall International, New Jersey, USA.
  • HAMMERMANN, Felix (2007), Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation in Romania: A Decomposition, Kiel Working Paper No. 1322, İnternet Adresi; http://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/nonmonetarydeterminants-of-inflation-in-romania-a-decomposition/kap1322.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 01.02.2012.
  • HERNANDEZ-CATA, Ernesto (1999), Price Liberalization, Money Growth, and Inflation During the Transition to a Market Economy, IMF Working Paper WP/99/76, İnternet Adresi; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/1999/wp9976.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 02012.
  • INOUE, Takeshi (2005), “The Determinants of Inflation Rate in Transition Countries -A Panel Data Analysis”, Bulletin of the Japan Association for Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 42; 15-23.
  • KHAN, Mohsin S. ve Axel SCHIMMELPFENNIG (2006), Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?, IMF Working Paper, WP/06/60, İnternet Adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp0660.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 02012.
  • KIVILCIM, Metin (1995), “The Analysis of Inflation: The Case of Turkey”, Capital Market Board, No. 20, Ankara.
  • KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut (2002), “Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation, Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey”, Eds. A. Kibritçioğlu, L. Rittenberg ve F. Selçuk, Ashgate Publishing Limited, Aldershot, Hampshire, England içinde, 43-76.
  • KIM, Byung Yeon (2001), Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach, Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition Discussion Papers, 16, İnternet Adresi; http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/ dp160pdf ; Erişim Tarihi: 10.02.2012.
  • KOMULAINEN, Tuomas ve Jukka PIRTTILÄ (2000), Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No:1, İnternet Adresi; http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Documents/ dp1100.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 23.02.2012.
  • LARYEA, Samuel A. ve Ussif Rashid SUMAILA (2001), Determinants of inflation in Tanzania, CMI Working Papers, No:12, İnternet Adresi: http://bora.cmi.no/dspace/bitstream/10202/215/1/WP2001-12.PDF , Erişim Tarihi: 26.02.2012.
  • LAURA Alfaro (2005), “Inflation, openness, and exchange-rate regimes: The quest for short-term commitment”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 77; 229–249.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar, Seema NARAYAN ve Sagarika MISHRA (2011), “Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol.77; 914-933.
  • PRAKASH, Loungani ve Phillip SWAGEl (1995), Supply-side sources of inflation: evidence from OECD countries, International Finance Discussion Papers 515, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), İnternet Adresi; http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1995/515/ifdp515.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 22.02.2012.
  • ROODMAN, David (2006), How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata, Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development, İnternet Adresi; http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/11619_file_HowtoDoxtabond8_with _foreword_0.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 26.02.2012.
  • SAATÇİOĞLU, Cem ve H. Levent KORAP (2005), “An Empirical Analysis of Turkish Inflation (1988-2004): Some Non-Monetarist Estimations”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 26.
  • ŞAHİNOĞLU, Tuba, Kenan ÖZDEN, Selim BAŞAR ve Hayati. AKSU (2010), “Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Oluşumu: ARDL Yaklaşımı”, Sosyo-Ekonomi, Vol.1; 27-46.
  • TEKİN-KORU, Ayça ve Erdal ÖZMEN (2003),“Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence”, Applied Economics, Vol. 35; 591-596.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Burcu Özcan

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Nisan 2014
Gönderilme Tarihi 5 Eylül 2013
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Özcan, B. (2014). Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomilerde Enflasyonun Belirleyenleri: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(1), 33-53.
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