Öz
Askeri harcamalar, bir ülkenin güvenliği açısından vazgeçmesi oldukça zor bir harcama kalemidir. Askeri harcamaların gayri safi yurt içi hasıladan alması gereken pay ne olmalıdır? ve bu harcamaların ekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki pozitif ve negatif etkileri nelerdir? gibi sorular, askeri harcamalar konusunu önemli bir iktisadi problem haline getirmektedir. Askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen literatüre bakıldığında söz konusu ilişkiye yönelik bir görüş birliğinin olmadığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca, bu konuda yapılan çalışmaların büyük çoğunluğunun doğrusallık ve simetri gibi varsayımlar üzerinden hareket ettikleri dikkati çekmektedir. Orta Doğu gibi çatışma ve terör faaliyetlerinin yoğun olduğu bir bölge için askeri harcamalar-büyüme ilişkisinin çok daha gerçekçi varsayımlar üzerinden incelenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada dokuz Orta Doğu ülkesi üzerinden askeri harcamaların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin Asimetrik ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılarak incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu sayede, doğrusallık ve simetri gibi varsayımlar yerine daha esnek varsayımlar üzerinden analiz yapma imkanı elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada, yıllık askeri harcamaların gayri safi yurt içi hasıladan aldığı pay ve kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurt içi hasıla değişkenleri üzerinden analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre Orta Doğu ülkelerinde askeri harcamalar ve reel kişi başı GSYH arasında uzun dönemde pozitif ve asimetrik bir ilişki varken, kısa dönemde bu ilişki negatif ve simetrik yapıdadır. Uzun dönemli ilişkiyi belirleyen temel unsurun, askeri harcamaların artışından kaynaklanan dışsallıklardan ziyade, askeri harcamalara yönelik negatif şoklar nedeniyle ortaya çıktığı anlaşılmaktadır. Çalışma ayrıca, Orta Doğu’da askeri harcamaların konjonktürel bir yapı sergilediğine yönelik önceki çalışmalarda elde edilen bulguları desteklerken, Orta Doğu ülkelerinin konjonktürel hareketlere farklı duyarlılıkta tepki verdiklerini ortaya koyması açısından bu bulguları genişletmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Savunma Harcamaları Askeri Harcamalar Ekonomik Büyüme Orta Doğu
Kaynakça
- Agostino, G., Dunne J.P. and Pieroni L. (2014). Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth. http://www.siecon.org/online/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/DAgostino-Dunne-Pieroni-356.pdf (Erişim: 06. 06. 2021).
- Asseery, A. A. (1996). Evidence from time series on militarizing the economy: the case of Iraq. Applied Economics, 28 (10):1257-1261.
- Benoit, E. (1973). Growth Effects of Defence in Developing Countries. International Development Review, 14(1): 2-10.
- Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defence in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2): 271-280.
- Biswas, B. and Ram, R. (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 361-372.
- Breitung, J. ve Das, S. (2005). Panel unit root tests under cross‐sectional dependence. Statistica Neerlandica, 59(4): 414-433.
- Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defense Expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35 (1): 179-196.
- Dunne, J. P., Nikolaidou E., Smith R. (2002). Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth in Small Industrialising Economies. http://www.kafkas.edu.tr/dosyalar/sobedergi/file/010/1.pdf (Erişim: 07. 06. 2021).
- Dunne, P. and Vougas, D. (1999). Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Causal Analysis. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(4): 525-536.
- Faini, R., Annez P. and Taylor L. (1984). Defense Spending, Economic Structure, and Growth: Evidence among Countries and over Time. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32 (3): 487-498.
- Heo, U. (2009). The Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the United States. Political Research Quarterly, 63(4): 760- 770.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
- Khalid, M.A., Noor, Z.M. (2015). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6 (1): 31-39.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of econometrics, 108(1): 1-24.
- Liu, M.L., Ji, Q. ve Fan, Y. (2013). How does oil market uncertainty interact with other markets? An empirical analysis of implied volatility index. Energy, 55: 860–868
- Paparas, D., and Richter, C. (2016). Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece and the Arms Race between Greece and Turkey. Journal of Economics Library, 3(1): 38-56.
- Pesaran, M.H., Y. Shin ve R. J. Smith. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326.
- Robert, W. and Alexander, J. (1990). The Impact of Defence Spending on Economic Growth: A Multisectoral Approach to Defence Spending and Economic Growth with Evidence from Developed Economies. Defence Economics, 2(1): 39-55.
- Salisu, A. A. ve Isah, K. O. (2017). Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach. Economic Modelling, 66: 258-271.
- Sezgin, S. (1997). Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 8 (4): 381-409.
- Shieh, J. Y., Lai C. C. and Chang W. Y. (2002). Endogenous Growth and Defense Expenditures: A New Explanation of Benoit Hypothesis. Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (3): 179-186.
- Shin, Y, Yu, B. ve Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework (Ed. R. Sickels ve W. Horrace). Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, Springer, 281-314.
- Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. and Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16 (4): 283-295.
Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: An Examination of Benoit Hypothesis for Middle Eastern Countries
Öz
Military expenditures are spending items that a country can never give up for its own security’s sake. But, what should be the amount of military expenditures as a share of Gross Domestic Product? And what are the positive and negative aspects of this amount of expenditure on other economic variables? These questions make the subject of military expenditures an important and noteworthy economic phenomenon. It is evident from the literature that the military expenditures-growth relation is somehow controversial. In addition, most of the literature is based on the assumption that the military expenditures-growth relation is linear and symmetric. It is very important to reveal the effects of military expenditures on economic growth in a more realistic way for the countries in the Middle East region, where terrorist incidents and conflict environments are most intense. This study aims to examine the effect of military expenditures on economic growth over nine Middle Eastern countries by using Asymmetric ARDL approach. Thus, the assumptions of linearity and symmetry are replaced by more flexible assumptions of nonlinearity and asymmetry. The two variables of interest in this study are annual military expenditures as a share of gross domestic product and annual real gross domestic product per capita. According to the findings, while there is a positive and asymmetrical relationship between military expenditures and real GDP per capita in the long run, this relationship is negative and symmetrical in the short run. The findings show that the main factor determining the long-term relationship arises from negative shocks to military expenditures rather than externalities arising from the increase in military expenditures. Our findings also confirm orther studies that the military expenditures of the Middle Eastern countries are cyclical, but expands those findings that the Middle Eastern countries react to these cyclical developments with different sensitivity.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Defence Expenditures Military Expenditures Economic Growth Middle East
Kaynakça
- Agostino, G., Dunne J.P. and Pieroni L. (2014). Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth. http://www.siecon.org/online/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/DAgostino-Dunne-Pieroni-356.pdf (Erişim: 06. 06. 2021).
- Asseery, A. A. (1996). Evidence from time series on militarizing the economy: the case of Iraq. Applied Economics, 28 (10):1257-1261.
- Benoit, E. (1973). Growth Effects of Defence in Developing Countries. International Development Review, 14(1): 2-10.
- Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defence in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2): 271-280.
- Biswas, B. and Ram, R. (1986). Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 361-372.
- Breitung, J. ve Das, S. (2005). Panel unit root tests under cross‐sectional dependence. Statistica Neerlandica, 59(4): 414-433.
- Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defense Expenditure. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35 (1): 179-196.
- Dunne, J. P., Nikolaidou E., Smith R. (2002). Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth in Small Industrialising Economies. http://www.kafkas.edu.tr/dosyalar/sobedergi/file/010/1.pdf (Erişim: 07. 06. 2021).
- Dunne, P. and Vougas, D. (1999). Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Causal Analysis. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(4): 525-536.
- Faini, R., Annez P. and Taylor L. (1984). Defense Spending, Economic Structure, and Growth: Evidence among Countries and over Time. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 32 (3): 487-498.
- Heo, U. (2009). The Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in the United States. Political Research Quarterly, 63(4): 760- 770.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
- Khalid, M.A., Noor, Z.M. (2015). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6 (1): 31-39.
- Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of econometrics, 108(1): 1-24.
- Liu, M.L., Ji, Q. ve Fan, Y. (2013). How does oil market uncertainty interact with other markets? An empirical analysis of implied volatility index. Energy, 55: 860–868
- Paparas, D., and Richter, C. (2016). Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece and the Arms Race between Greece and Turkey. Journal of Economics Library, 3(1): 38-56.
- Pesaran, M.H., Y. Shin ve R. J. Smith. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326.
- Robert, W. and Alexander, J. (1990). The Impact of Defence Spending on Economic Growth: A Multisectoral Approach to Defence Spending and Economic Growth with Evidence from Developed Economies. Defence Economics, 2(1): 39-55.
- Salisu, A. A. ve Isah, K. O. (2017). Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach. Economic Modelling, 66: 258-271.
- Sezgin, S. (1997). Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 8 (4): 381-409.
- Shieh, J. Y., Lai C. C. and Chang W. Y. (2002). Endogenous Growth and Defense Expenditures: A New Explanation of Benoit Hypothesis. Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (3): 179-186.
- Shin, Y, Yu, B. ve Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework (Ed. R. Sickels ve W. Horrace). Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, Springer, 281-314.
- Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. and Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16 (4): 283-295.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 8 Kasım 2021 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 30 Haziran 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2021Cilt: 22 Sayı: 2 |
Cited By
Savunma Sanayi Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyümeye Katkısı: Türkiye Örneği
Toplum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.58702/teyd.1338502
Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.