Öz
Sigorta modern yaşamın temel taşlarından biridir. Sigorta olmadan, günümüz toplumu ve ekonomisi birçok açıdan çalışamaz hale gelebilir. Sigorta sektörü günlük yaşamda meydana gelebilecek politik, ekonomik, teknolojik, iklimsel vb. risklere karşı bireyleri ya da şirketleri korumaktadır. Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde yatırımların finansmanı ve finansal hizmetlerin gelişmesinde sigorta sektörünün payı her geçen gün artmaktadır. Sigorta şirketleri topladıkları primleri sermaye piyasasına aktarılarak ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlanmaktadır. Türkiye’de her geçen yıl sigortalılık oranı ve toplanan primler artış göstermektedir. Sigorta sektörü Türk finans sektörü içerisindeki payı %4 civarındadır. Bu oranı dünya sigortacılık sektörüyle karşılaştırdığımızda yeterli olmadığı görülmektedir. Ancak Türkiye’deki genç nüfus, yeni sigorta branşları nezdinde sektörün büyüme dinamikleri oldukça yüksektir.
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de sigorta sektörü ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektedir. Ekonomik büyüme ile sigortacılık sektörü arasındaki etkileşim VAR modeli ve Granger Nedensellik Testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz 2013:06-2021:06 yılları arası çeyrek dönemlik veriler kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Analizde Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hâsıla ile Hayat sigorta branşına ait prim üretimi, hayat dışı sigorta branşına ait prim üretimi ve toplam prim üretimi değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Analizde kullanılan GSYİH değişkenleri T.C Merkez Bankası EVEDS’den, H-PRİM, HD-PRİM ve T-PRİM değişkenleri Türkiye Sigorta Birliği’nden (TSB) elde edilmiştir. Sigortacılık sektörü prim üretimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif ve tek yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme sigortacılık sektörü prim üretimini olumlu etkilemektedir aynı şekilde sigortacılık sektörü prim üretimi ekonomik büyümenin nedenidir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Akinlo, T., and Apanisile, O. T. (2014). Relationship between insurance and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African: A panel data analysis. Modern Economy, 05(02), 120–127. doi:10.4236/me.2014.52014
- Alper, A.M. (2005). İşçi Dövizlerini Belirleyen Makro Ekonomik Etkenler: Türkiye Örneği, T.C. Merkez Bankası, Uzman Yeterlilik Tezi. Ankara.
- Arena, M. (2008). Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross-Country Study for Industry allied and Developing Countries. The Journal of Rısk and Insurance. 75(4), 921-946.
- Baltensperger, E.And F. Bodmer. (2011). The Social and Economic Value of Insurance: A Primer, http://www.zurich.com/internet/main/SiteCollectionDocuments/insight/social-and-economic-value.pdf (Access Date: July 2021).
- Brainard, L. (2008). What is the role of insurance in economic development? https://www.draudimas.com/allpics/What_is_the_role_of_economic_developement.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 10 Ekim 2021).
- Chetty, R., Looney, A. (2006). Consumption Smoothing and the Welfare Consequences of Social Insurance in Developing Economies, Journal of Public Economics, 90, 2351-2356
- Cristea, M., Marcu, N., and Carstina, S. (2014). The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Romania compared to the main results in Europe—A theoretical and empirical analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 226–235.
- Çekici, E.M., İnel, M.N. (2013). Türk Sigorta Sektörünün Direkt Prim Üretimlerinin Tahmin Teknikleri ile İncelenmesi, Marmara Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B. Dergisi, Yıl 2013, Cilt XXXIV, Sayı I, S. 135-152
- Davidson, R., Mackinnon, J. G. (1999). Econometric Theory and Methods. England: Oxford University Press.
- Dorfman, M. (2002). Introduction to Risk Management and Insurance, (Seventh edition). New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
- Ege, İ., Saraç, T. B. (2011). The Relationship between Insurance Sector and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis. Int. J. Eco. Res.. 2(2), 1-9.
- Engle, R.F.,C.W.J. Granger, (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
- Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Temel Ekonometri, (Şenesen, Ü. & Şenesen, G. G., Çev.). İstanbul: LiteratürYayıncılık.
- Gujarati, D.N. (2010). Temel Ekonometri (Çev. Ümit Senesen Ve Gülay Günlük Senesen), Yedinci Basım, İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları.
- Haiss, P., Sümegi, K. (2008). The Relation Ship between Insurance and Economic Growth İn Europa: A The Oreticaland Empirical Analysis. Empirica. 35. 405-431.
- Han, L., (2010). Insurance Development and Economic Growth.Palgra ve Journals. 35, 183-199.
- Hızlı, P. B. (2007). Sigorta Sektörünün Gelişimi, Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi ve Türkiye Uygulaması. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Adana: Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
- Hussels, S., Ward, D., Zurbruegg, R. (2005), Stimulating the demand for insurance, Risk Management and Insurance Review, vol.8. no. 2. p.257-278
- Insurance Europe. (2012). How insurance Works, http://www.insuranceeurope.eu (Access Date: December 2014).
- Karaman, D. (2013). Sigortacılık, Beta Yayınevi, 3. Baskı, İstanbul. 49-55
- Kjosevski, J. (2011). Impact of Insurance on Economic Growth: the Case of Republic of Macedonia. European Journal of Business and Economics. 4. 34-39.
- Köse, A.(2008). Türk Sigorta Sektöründe Prim Üretimi ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Eşbütünleşme Testi. TSEV. 1-14.
- Kugler, M., Ofoghi, R. (2005). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from the UK. Retrieved: http://repec.org/mmfc05/paper8.pdf (07.02.2013).
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. ve Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Econometric Time Series Have a Unit Root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
- Lee, U. (1997). Stock Market and Macroeconomics Policies: New Evidence from Pacific Basin Countries. Multinational Finance Journal, 1(4), 273-289.
- Njegomir, V., Stojic, D. (2010). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth: the Evidence from ExYugoslavia Region.Ekonomskamisao i praska. 19. 31-48.
- Olayungbo, D. O., and Akinlo, A. E. (2016). Insurance penetration and economic growth in Africa: Dynamic effects analysis using Bayesian TVPVAR approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4, 1–19.
- Omoke, P. C. (2012). Insurance Market Activity and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Asian Economic and Financial Rewiev.1(4).245-253.
- Phillips, P.C.,Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335- 345.
- Poposki, K. (2001). Globalization of the Insurance Industry and Emerging Markets, International Statistical Institute.
- Rejda, G.E. (2008). Principles of Risk Management and Insurance. Addison Wesley.
- Richterkova, Z., and Korab, P. (2013). Impact of insurance sector activity on economic growth—A meta analysis. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 61(7), 2677–2683.
- Sarıoğlu, E.,Taşpunar, S. (2011). Does Insurance Sector Affect The Economic Growth and Financial Development? Some Evidence From Turkey, Uluslararası Finans Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı 2011, İstanbul.
- Sims, C.A. (1980) , Macroeconomics And Reallity, Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48
- Thorburn, Craig. (2008). Insurers: Too Many, Too Few, or “Just Right”? Initial Observations On A CrossCountry Dataset Of Concentration And Competition Measures”, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, No: 4578, March.
- Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector auto regressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250.
- Verma, A., and Bala, R. (2013). The relationship between life insurance and economic growth: Evidence from India. Global Journal of Management and Business Studies, 3(4), 413–422.
- Ward, D., Zurbruegg, R. (2000). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries. The Journal of Risk And Insurance. 67(4).489-506.
- Webb, I. P., (2002). The Effect of Banking and On the Growth of Capita and Output. Center For Risk Managament And Insurance Working Paper. 02-1, 1-38.
- Yinusa, O., and Akinlo, T. (2013). Insurance development and economic growth in Nigeria, 1986–2010. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 5(5), 218–224. doi:10.5897/JEIF2013.0498
- Yoo, S.H. (2006). The Causal Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the ASEAN Countries, Energy Policy, 34, 3573–3582.
- Zou, H. (2004) The Corporate Purchase of Property Insurance: Chinese Evidence, J Finans Intermed 15(2), ss.165-196 Zouhaier, H. (2014). Insurance and economic growth. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(12), 102–112.
Öz
Insurance is one of the cornerstones of modern life. Without insurance, today's society and economy can become inoperable in many ways. The insurance sector can be affected by political, economic, technological, climatic, etc. that may occur in daily life. protects individuals or companies against risks. The share of the insurance sector in the financing of investments and the development of financial services in developing economies is increasing day by day. Insurance companies contribute to economic growth by transferring the premiums they collect to the capital market. In Turkey, the insurance rate and the premiums collected are increasing every year. The share of the insurance sector in the Turkish financial sector is around 4%. When we compare this rate with the world insurance sector, it is seen that it is not sufficient. However, the growth dynamics of the sector is quite high in terms of the young population and new insurance branches in Turkey.
This study examines the relationships between the insurance sector and economic growth in Turkey. The relationship between economic growth and the insurance sector was analyzed with the VAR model and the Granger Causality Test. The analysis was made using quarterly data between 2013:06-2021:06. The variables of Gross Domestic Product and premium production of the life insurance branch, premium production of the non-life insurance branch and total premium production were used in the analysis. GDP variables used in the analysis were obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey EVEDS, and the variables H-PRIM, HD-PRIM and T-PRIM were obtained from the Insurance Association of Turkey (TSB). A positive and unidirectional relationship was determined between the insurance sector premium production and economic growth. Economic growth positively affects the premium production in the insurance sector, likewise, the premium production in the insurance sector is the cause of economic growth.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Akinlo, T., and Apanisile, O. T. (2014). Relationship between insurance and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African: A panel data analysis. Modern Economy, 05(02), 120–127. doi:10.4236/me.2014.52014
- Alper, A.M. (2005). İşçi Dövizlerini Belirleyen Makro Ekonomik Etkenler: Türkiye Örneği, T.C. Merkez Bankası, Uzman Yeterlilik Tezi. Ankara.
- Arena, M. (2008). Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross-Country Study for Industry allied and Developing Countries. The Journal of Rısk and Insurance. 75(4), 921-946.
- Baltensperger, E.And F. Bodmer. (2011). The Social and Economic Value of Insurance: A Primer, http://www.zurich.com/internet/main/SiteCollectionDocuments/insight/social-and-economic-value.pdf (Access Date: July 2021).
- Brainard, L. (2008). What is the role of insurance in economic development? https://www.draudimas.com/allpics/What_is_the_role_of_economic_developement.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 10 Ekim 2021).
- Chetty, R., Looney, A. (2006). Consumption Smoothing and the Welfare Consequences of Social Insurance in Developing Economies, Journal of Public Economics, 90, 2351-2356
- Cristea, M., Marcu, N., and Carstina, S. (2014). The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Romania compared to the main results in Europe—A theoretical and empirical analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 226–235.
- Çekici, E.M., İnel, M.N. (2013). Türk Sigorta Sektörünün Direkt Prim Üretimlerinin Tahmin Teknikleri ile İncelenmesi, Marmara Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B. Dergisi, Yıl 2013, Cilt XXXIV, Sayı I, S. 135-152
- Davidson, R., Mackinnon, J. G. (1999). Econometric Theory and Methods. England: Oxford University Press.
- Dorfman, M. (2002). Introduction to Risk Management and Insurance, (Seventh edition). New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
- Ege, İ., Saraç, T. B. (2011). The Relationship between Insurance Sector and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis. Int. J. Eco. Res.. 2(2), 1-9.
- Engle, R.F.,C.W.J. Granger, (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
- Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Temel Ekonometri, (Şenesen, Ü. & Şenesen, G. G., Çev.). İstanbul: LiteratürYayıncılık.
- Gujarati, D.N. (2010). Temel Ekonometri (Çev. Ümit Senesen Ve Gülay Günlük Senesen), Yedinci Basım, İstanbul: Literatür Yayınları.
- Haiss, P., Sümegi, K. (2008). The Relation Ship between Insurance and Economic Growth İn Europa: A The Oreticaland Empirical Analysis. Empirica. 35. 405-431.
- Han, L., (2010). Insurance Development and Economic Growth.Palgra ve Journals. 35, 183-199.
- Hızlı, P. B. (2007). Sigorta Sektörünün Gelişimi, Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi ve Türkiye Uygulaması. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Adana: Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
- Hussels, S., Ward, D., Zurbruegg, R. (2005), Stimulating the demand for insurance, Risk Management and Insurance Review, vol.8. no. 2. p.257-278
- Insurance Europe. (2012). How insurance Works, http://www.insuranceeurope.eu (Access Date: December 2014).
- Karaman, D. (2013). Sigortacılık, Beta Yayınevi, 3. Baskı, İstanbul. 49-55
- Kjosevski, J. (2011). Impact of Insurance on Economic Growth: the Case of Republic of Macedonia. European Journal of Business and Economics. 4. 34-39.
- Köse, A.(2008). Türk Sigorta Sektöründe Prim Üretimi ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında Eşbütünleşme Testi. TSEV. 1-14.
- Kugler, M., Ofoghi, R. (2005). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from the UK. Retrieved: http://repec.org/mmfc05/paper8.pdf (07.02.2013).
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. ve Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Econometric Time Series Have a Unit Root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
- Lee, U. (1997). Stock Market and Macroeconomics Policies: New Evidence from Pacific Basin Countries. Multinational Finance Journal, 1(4), 273-289.
- Njegomir, V., Stojic, D. (2010). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth: the Evidence from ExYugoslavia Region.Ekonomskamisao i praska. 19. 31-48.
- Olayungbo, D. O., and Akinlo, A. E. (2016). Insurance penetration and economic growth in Africa: Dynamic effects analysis using Bayesian TVPVAR approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4, 1–19.
- Omoke, P. C. (2012). Insurance Market Activity and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Asian Economic and Financial Rewiev.1(4).245-253.
- Phillips, P.C.,Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335- 345.
- Poposki, K. (2001). Globalization of the Insurance Industry and Emerging Markets, International Statistical Institute.
- Rejda, G.E. (2008). Principles of Risk Management and Insurance. Addison Wesley.
- Richterkova, Z., and Korab, P. (2013). Impact of insurance sector activity on economic growth—A meta analysis. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 61(7), 2677–2683.
- Sarıoğlu, E.,Taşpunar, S. (2011). Does Insurance Sector Affect The Economic Growth and Financial Development? Some Evidence From Turkey, Uluslararası Finans Sempozyumu Bildiriler Kitabı 2011, İstanbul.
- Sims, C.A. (1980) , Macroeconomics And Reallity, Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48
- Thorburn, Craig. (2008). Insurers: Too Many, Too Few, or “Just Right”? Initial Observations On A CrossCountry Dataset Of Concentration And Competition Measures”, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, No: 4578, March.
- Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector auto regressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250.
- Verma, A., and Bala, R. (2013). The relationship between life insurance and economic growth: Evidence from India. Global Journal of Management and Business Studies, 3(4), 413–422.
- Ward, D., Zurbruegg, R. (2000). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries. The Journal of Risk And Insurance. 67(4).489-506.
- Webb, I. P., (2002). The Effect of Banking and On the Growth of Capita and Output. Center For Risk Managament And Insurance Working Paper. 02-1, 1-38.
- Yinusa, O., and Akinlo, T. (2013). Insurance development and economic growth in Nigeria, 1986–2010. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 5(5), 218–224. doi:10.5897/JEIF2013.0498
- Yoo, S.H. (2006). The Causal Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the ASEAN Countries, Energy Policy, 34, 3573–3582.
- Zou, H. (2004) The Corporate Purchase of Property Insurance: Chinese Evidence, J Finans Intermed 15(2), ss.165-196 Zouhaier, H. (2014). Insurance and economic growth. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(12), 102–112.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Finans |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Erken Görünüm Tarihi | 15 Nisan 2022 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 19 Nisan 2022 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 9 Kasım 2021 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2022Cilt: 23 Sayı: 2 |
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Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.