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Türkiye’de Karbon Histerisinin Geçerliliğinin RALS-LM Birim Kök Testi ile Analizi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1, 69 - 80, 31.01.2024

Kerem Fırat Coşkun , Özge Buzdağlı

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1334894

Öz

Günümüzde küresel iklim değişikliği önemli bir sorun haline gelmiştir. İklim değişikliğinin en önemli nedenleri arasında CO2 emisyonlarının yer aldığı bilinmektedir. Türkiye’nin de dahil olduğu ve 100’den fazla ülkenin imzaladığı Kyoto Protokolü’nde CO2 emisyonlarının azaltılmasına yönelik hedefler belirlenmiştir. Bu protokolün güncel hali olan Paris anlaşması ve akabinde uluslararası düzeyde yapılan diğer anlaşmalara rağmen, CO2 emisyonlarının azaltılması hedeflerine ulaşılamadığı, tam aksine zamanla artış göstermeye devam ettiği görülmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu artış trendi işsizlik histerisi hipotezindeki gibi bir histeri etkisinin varlığı ihtimalini akla getirmektedir. Histeri etkisi ele alınan makroekonomik değişkene gelen şokun etkisinin kalıcı olduğunu diğer bir ifadeyle şokun etkisinin geçmesine rağmen serinin eski denge düzeyine dönememesini ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmada da CO2 emisyonları histeri hipotezi açısından ele alınmıştır. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de karbon histerisinin geçerli olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Literatürde histeri etkisi birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada Meng vd. (2017) tarafından geliştirilen kalıntılarla genişletilmiş RALS-LM birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Bu testin özelliği geleneksel birim kök testlerinin aksine kalıntıların normal dağılıma uymadığı durumları dikkate almasıdır. Analizde 1960-2021 dönemi için metrik ton cinsinden CO2 emisyon serisine ait yıllık verilerden yararlanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarında CO2 emisyon serisinin durağan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu nedenle Türkiye’de karbon histerisinin geçerli olmadığı söylenebilir. Dolayısıyla Türkiye’de CO2 emisyonlarının azaltılması için uygulanan politikaların sadece geçici bir etkiye sahip olduğu ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Karbon Histerisi RALS-LM Birim Kök Testi Türkiye

Kaynakça

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The Analysis of The Validity of Carbon Hysteresis in Türkiye with RALS-LM Unit Root Test

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1, 69 - 80, 31.01.2024

Kerem Fırat Coşkun , Özge Buzdağlı

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1334894

Öz

Today, global climate change has become an important problem. It is well known that CO2 emissions are one of the most important causes of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol, in which Turkey is also a participant and which has been signed by more than 100 countries, has set targets for reducing CO2 emissions. Despite the Paris Agreement, the current version of this protocol, and other agreements that were subsequently reached at the international level, it can be seen that the targets for reducing CO2 emissions have not been met, but on the contrary, they continue to increase over time. Therefore, this upward trend raises the possibility of a hysteresis effect as in the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. The hysteresis effect means that the effect of the shock on the macroeconomic variable addressed is permanent, that is, the series cannot return to its previous equilibrium level even after the effect of the shock has passed. In this study, CO2 emissions are discussed from the point of view of the hysteresis hypothesis. For this purpose, it was investigated whether carbon hysteresis is valid in Turkey. In the literature, the hysteresis effect is analysed with unit root tests. In this study, the extended RALS-LM unit root test with residuals developed by Meng et al. (2017) is used. The distinctive feature of this test is that, unlike traditional unit root tests, it accounts for situations in which the residuals do not conform to the normal distribution. Annual CO2 emission series data in metric tons for the period 1960-2021 were used for the analysis. In the analysis results, it was found that the CO2 emission series is stationary. For this reason, it can be said that there is no carbon hysteresis in Turkey. Therefore, it can be concluded that the policies implemented to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey have only a temporary effect.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Carbon Hysteresis RALS-LM Unit Root Test Turkey

Kaynakça

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  • Ahmed, K. & Long, W. (2012). Environmental Kuznets curve and Pakistan: An empirical analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 1, 4-13.
  • Alam, M. J., Begum, I. A., Buysse, J., Rahman, S., & Van Huylenbroeck, G. (2011). Dynamic modeling of causal relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in India. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(6), 3243-3251.
  • Aldy, J. E. (2006). Per capita carbon dioxide emissions: convergence or divergence? Environmental and Resource Economics, 33(4), 533-555.
  • Al-Mulali, U., Saboori, B., & Ozturk, I. (2015). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy policy, 76, 123-131.
  • Arouri, M. E. H., Youssef, A. B., M'henni, H., & Rault, C. (2012). Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries. Energy policy, 45, 342-349.
  • Atici, C. (2009). Carbon emissions in Central and Eastern Europe: environmental Kuznets curve and implications for sustainable development. Sustainable Development, 17(3), 155-160.
  • Balibey, M. (2015), Relationships among CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign direct investment and the Ekc hypothesis in Turkey. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(4), 1042-1049.
  • Barassi, M. R., Cole, M. A., & Elliott, R. J. (2008). Stochastic divergence or convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: re-examining the evidence. Environmental and Resource Economics, 40(1), 121-137.
  • Bilgili, F., Koçak, E., & Bulut, Ü. (2016). The dynamic impact of renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions: a revisited environmental Kuznets curve approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 838-845.
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  • Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1987). Hysteresis in unemployment. Eur. Econ. Rev. 31 (1), 288–295.
  • Boubellouta, B. & Kusch-Brandt, S.(2020). Testing the environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for E-waste in the EU28+2 countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 277, 1-11.
  • Bölük, G. & Mert, M. (2015). The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: an ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 587-595.
  • Carmarero, M., Picazo-Tadeo, A.J. & Tamarit, C. (2008). Is the environmental performance of industrialized countries converging? A sure approach to testing for convergence. Ecological Economics, 66(4), 653-661.
  • Cho, C. H., Chu, Y. P., & Yang, H. Y. (2014). An environment Kuznets curve for GHG emissions: a panel cointegration analysis. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(2), 120-129.
  • Caglar, A. E., & Mert, M. (2022). Carbon hysteresis hypothesis as a new approach to emission behavior: a case of top five emitters. Gondwana Research, 109, 171-182.
  • Çağlar, A.E. & Mert, M. (2022). Türkiye’de karbon histeri hipotezi geçerli midir?: Fourier birim kök testlerinden kanıtlar. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(3), 1587-1610. Doi: 10.25295/fsecon.1119030.
  • Cetin, M. & Ecevit, E. (2017). The impact of financial development on carbon emissions under the structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Turkish economy. International Journal of Economics Perspectives, 11(1), 64-78.
  • Dar, J. A. & Asif, M. (2018). Does financial development improve environmental quality in Turkey? An application of endogenous structural breaks based cointegration approach. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 29(2), 368-384.
  • Deniz, P. 2022. Convergence in CO2 emissions. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies Proceedings of Middle East Economic Association, 24(1), 21-46.
  • Destek, M. A. & Ozsoy, F.N. (2015). Relationships between economic growth, energy consumption, globalization, urbanization and environmental degradation in Turkey. International Journal of Energy and Statistics, 3(4), 1550017-1-1550017-13.
  • Du, L., Wei, C., & Cai, S. (2012). Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis. China Economic Review, 23(2), 371-384.
  • Farhani, S., Chaibi, A., & Rault, C. (2014). CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia. Economic Modelling, 38, 426-434.
  • Fei, L., Dong, S., Xue, L., Liang, Q., & Yang, W. (2011). Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China. Energy Policy, 39(2), 568-574.
  • Fodha, M., & Zaghdoud, O. (2010). Economic growth and pollutant emissions in Tunisia: an empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve. Energy Policy, 38(2), 1150-1156.
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  • Gozgor, G. & Can, M. (2016). Export product diversification and the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23(21), 21594-21603
  • Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1156-1164.
  • Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı, (2023). https://www.hmb.gov.tr/ekonomik-gostergeler.
  • Im, K. S. & Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233.
  • International Energy Agency, (2022, Mart). Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2021, 1-14. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-co2-emissions-in-2021-2.
  • Katircioglu, S. (2017). Investigating the role of oil prices in the conventional EKC model: Evidence from Turkey. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(5), 498-508.
  • Katircioğlu, S. T. & Taşpinar, N. (2017). Testing the moderating role of financial development in an environmental Kuznets curve: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 68, 572-586.
  • Koçak, E. & Şarkgüneşi, A. (2018). The impact of foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Turkey: New evidence from cointegration and bootstrap causality analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(1), 790-804.
  • Kohler, M. (2013). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade: A South African perspective. Energy Policy, 63, 1042-1050.
  • Lau, L. S., Choong, C. K., & Eng, Y. K. (2014). Investigation of the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emissions in Malaysia: Do foreign direct investment and trade matter?. Energy Policy, 68, 490-497.
  • Lean, H. H. & Smyth, R. (2010). CO2 emissions, electricity consumption and output in ASEAN. Applied Energy, 87(6), 1858-1864.
  • Lee, C. C. & Chang, C. P. (2008). New evidence on the convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions from panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey–Fuller tests. Energy, 33(9), 1468-1475.
  • Lee, C. C. & Chang, C. P. (2009). Stochastic convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and multiple structural breaks in OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1375–1381.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. C., (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M. C., (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, 04-17, 1-15.
  • Lumsdaine, R. L. & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
  • Magazzino, C. (2019). Testing the stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions series in MENA countries. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 13(4), 977-990. https://doi.org/10.1108/ IJESM-09-2018-0008.
  • Marrero, G. A. (2010). Greenhouse gases emissions, growth and the energy mix in Europe. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1356-1363.
  • Meng, M., Im, K. S., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More powerful LM unit root tests with non-normal errors. Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 343-357.
  • Meng, M., Lee, J., & Payne, J. E. (2017). RALS-LM unit root test with trend breaks and non-normal errors: application to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 21(1), 31-45.
  • Nasir, M. & Rehman, F. U. (2011). Environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy, 39(3), 1857-1864.
  • Öztürk, İ. & Acaravcı, A. (2010). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9), 3220-3225.
  • Öztürk, İ. & Acaravcı, A. (2013). The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey. Energy economics, 36, 262-267.
  • Öztürk, İ. & Al-Mulali, U. (2015). Investigating the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Cambodia, Ecological Indicators, 57, 324–330.
  • Pao, H. T. & Tsai, C. M. (2011). Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries. Energy, 36(1), 685-693.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Presno, M. J., Landajo, M., & González, P. F. (2018). Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions. An approach from nonlinear stationarity analysis. Energy Economics, 70, 563-581.
  • Robalino-López, A., García-Ramos, J. E., Golpe, A. A., & Mena-Nieto, Á. (2014). System dynamics modelling and the environmental Kuznets curve in Ecuador (1980–2025). Energy Policy, 67, 923-931.
  • Romero-Ávila, D. (2008). Convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among industrialised countries revisited. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2265-2282.
  • Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J., & Mohd, S. (2012). Economic growth and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: a cointegration analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve. Energy Policy, 51, 184-191.
  • Saboori, B. & Sulaiman, J. (2013). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach. Energy, 55, 813-822.
  • Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J., & Mohd, S. (2016). Environmental Kuznets curve and energy consumption in Malaysia: A cointegration approach. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(9), 861-867.
  • Sarkodie, S. A. & Ozturk, I. (2020). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Kenya: A multivariate analysis. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 117, 109481.
  • Schmidt, P. & Phillips, P. C. (1992). LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 257-287.
  • Schwert, G. W. (1989). Tests for unit roots: A monte carlo investigation. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 5-17.
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  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Mahmood, H., & Arouri, M. (2013). Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis. Economic Modelling, 35, 145-152.
  • Shahbaz, M., Ozturk, I., Afza, T., & Ali, A. (2013). Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve in a global economy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 494-502.
  • Shahbaz, M., Khraief, N., Uddin, G. S., & Ozturk, I. (2014). Environmental Kuznets curve in an open economy: a bounds testing and causality analysis for Tunisia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 34, 325-336.
  • Shahbaz, M., Sbia, R., Hamdi, H., & Ozturk, I. (2014). Economic growth, electricity consumption, urbanization and environmental degradation relationship in United Arab Emirates. Ecological Indicators, 45, 622-631.
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  • Strazicich, M. C. & List, J. A. (2003). Are CO 2 emission levels converging among industrial countries?. Environmental and Resource Economics, 24(3), 263-271.
  • Ulucak, R. & Erdem, E. (2012). Çevre- iktisat ilişkisi ve Türkiye’de çevre politikalarının etkinliği. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 4(6), 78-98.
  • Wang, S., Li, Q., Fang, C., & Zhou, C. (2016). The relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from China. Science of the Total Environment, 542, 360-371.
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  • Yavuz, N. Ç. (2014). CO2 emission, energy consumption, and economic growth for Turkey: Evidence from a cointegration test with a structural break. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(3), 229-235.
  • Yıldız, Ü. & Boz, F.Ç. (2020). Econometric analysis of convergence in carbon emissions per capita for MENA countries. BAİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 20(3), 579-588. https://doi.org/10.11616/basbed. v20i56819.749539.
  • Yurttagüler, İ. & Kutlu, S. (2017). An econometric analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve: The case of Turkey. Alphanumeric Journal, 5(1), 115.
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  • Zivot, E. & Andrews, D.W.K., (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, 10, 251-270.
Toplam 82 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi Teorisi (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Kerem Fırat Coşkun 0000-0001-9227-2414

Özge Buzdağlı 0000-0002-2798-9889

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 26 Ocak 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 30 Temmuz 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024Cilt: 25 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Coşkun, K. F., & Buzdağlı, Ö. (2024). Türkiye’de Karbon Histerisinin Geçerliliğinin RALS-LM Birim Kök Testi ile Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(1), 69-80. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1334894
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